CryptoRounder

US VIX, the “fear index,” has already fallen to its lowest point within 2026. At first glance, the U.S. stock market seems calm and worry-free.

Although it has made fresh lows, this is not the time to go long. This is an index that will eventually return to its lows. So when it “spikes” due to panic, gradually adding to shorts is the most certain trading approach.

This calm water has boiled before.

In early June, I saw that the monthly-level RSI of Sandisk $SNDK had entered an extreme range and began establishing short positions. Then by the end of July, I had closed them all one after another. At this moment, SNDK has rebounded from the low point by more than 60%, and volatility is extremely high. If you want to preview how it may move next, I think gold is a good reference asset.

A similar path: a sweeping, violent rally—acceleration in the style of a crescent-moon curved sword—deleveraging stampede like a guillotine—followed by a fierce rebound

Overall, the next trading opportunities are likely on the side of the shorts. Gradually initiate short positions starting from the current price; if the price breaks to new highs, and after the daily chart holds steady, cut the loss—this is a workable approach.

Perpetual futures are a derivative product originally pioneered in the crypto industry. They have a long history, and the funding rate is an important element of them. Nowadays, the funding rate metric is rarely discussed, but judging from historical cycles, its effectiveness still looks fairly solid.

At present, in terms of funding rates calculated from the daily timeframe, the number of days with “negative values” has been very long—long enough to indicate that $BTC is already in a reversal zone.

We can see that the last bear-market FTX incident pushed the funding rate to -0.1%; afterward, the market entered a low-volatility phase. Corresponding to this Strategy’s credit crisis, the market has sustained negative funding rates for a long time, and the current market is now in a low-volatility phase as well.

Contract open interest and options open interest are also about to refresh their lows. There might still be one more drop, but there is no momentum left to drive a “big crash.” Let’s see this time whether the plain funding rate indicator is still working.

Today in the early hours, Ms. Vida posted in the community the textbook-style last step of a Sell Put: after achieving a profit of 80% or more, close the position in full—don’t try to take the very last bite—thereby avoiding tail risk. This is a common practice used by professional options traders.

Previously, Sell Puts were involved for $EWY $MU $SNDK. All the underlying assets subsequently rose significantly. While Sell Put doesn’t profit as much as directly buying the underlying stock, it has the advantage of a very thick safety cushion and a high win rate.

$SPCX This brings it closer to the 15-minute timeframe. It looks like the short entry price has an advantage. For the first take-profit level, personally I’m looking around $130. Plan is to close part of the position at that time and move the stop-loss to the entry price.

Then, when the market starts to panic again about newly unlocked stocks, close all positions.

$SPCX has entered the resistance zone, and the individual's short position has been filled.

SpaceX “Big General” electrician guy has put forward a very reasonable viewpoint, believing that from the perspective of the shorting side, they may choose to establish positions after the price breaks above $150. I think the reason is that above $150 there will be a large amount of liquidity; shorts will cut losses, longs will chase the rally, and volume will expand with higher turnover.

Let's see how the next one or two days go. If it stays strong and holds above $155, then the short side will have to consider withdrawing in advance.

$SPCX The recent rebound is strong, but its overvaluation and long-term unlocks will continue to create selling pressure and supply.

The blue box location in the chart is a major resistance level; my personal plan is to enter a short position in this area.

$BTC standard coordinates, daily-level downtrend line friction.

$BTC options volatility: a one-month ATM IV perspective, at a low extreme. The last time it was this low was when the spot ETF did so through the day before the event.

$XAU -day level. The downward trendline has been confirmed to have broken. The pullback may already be over, and a return to the bullish run upward is imminent. At the same time, silver (XAG), digital gold (BTC), and digital silver (ETH) are all showing an approximately synchronized pace.

Gold, silver, the real world, and the virtual world—heroes from all paths are ready for battle.

And Killa-sensei combined internationally.

Many people believe that the recent sale by the Trump family of $BTC is a negative factor, but there is a possibility that they reduced their holdings to comply with the Ethics clause, which is the prerequisite for the Clarity Act.

Everyone knows that we are currently at the bottom of the BTC bear market. The Trump family naturally knows that too. Selling at this time might be a kind of “sacrifice.”

If the Clarity Act is unexpectedly passed, it could trigger an epic-level bull market to run ahead.

People are always waiting for lower prices, waiting for the final sell-off. It reaches 60K, then 57K, then 54K—but the last trigger is never pulled.

Just like Chen Yongren said, we’re always thinking about what tomorrow might bring, but we’ve never considered whether there will even be a tomorrow.

Sell Covered Call, by September 25, there are 4 possible outcomes:

1. BTC falls. You lose money, but you earn 47.71 BTC. Small happiness
2. BTC trades sideways. You earn 47.71 BTC. Medium happiness
3. BTC rises slightly. You make money, and you also earn 47.71 BTC. Big happiness
4. BTC surges. You make money, and you also earn 47.71 BTC, but you miss the run-up of gains above 70,000. Medium happiness

This is a happy strategy—Sell Covered Call, the options covered call (buy-write) strategy.

$QQQ 4 hour-level, AMD model. First the match is tense, then TACO. After obtaining liquidity, it returns to the trading range, and a drop becomes the least likely option in the recent period.

$BTC weekly line level, MACD and RSI bottom divergence. Four years ago, there was a similar situation.