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KimHotbae
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KimHotbae

✨Focused on long-term trends, risk discipline & smart wealth building.
High-Frequency Trader
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Article
Sequoia: "The Next $1T Company Sells Work, Not Software"Sequoia Capital — the firm that backed Apple, Google, Nvidia, YouTube, Airbnb, Stripe — dropped a thesis worth reading closely. The old model: For 20+ years, tech sold software. Microsoft sells Office, Adobe sells Photoshop, Salesforce sells CRM. Tools that help humans work faster. Copilot for everything. The problem: Customers don't want software. They want work done. You don't want accounting software — you want books closed on time, taxes filed, reports delivered. The insight: For every $1 businesses spend on software, they spend $6 on services. SaaS has been fighting over that $1. AI can now digitize the $6 — the knowledge workforce itself. The map: Sequoia's Opportunity Map plots work by Intelligence vs. Judgement, Outsourced vs. Insourced. The sweet spot: highly standardized, already outsourced workflows — Insurance Brokerage ($140-200B), Accounting ($50-80B), Healthcare Revenue Cycle ($50-80B). 2025 = Copilot. 2026 = Autopilot. The winners won't build AI tools for accountants — they'll build AI accounting firms. Sequoia warns most Copilot startups face the Innovator's Dilemma: today you sell software to accountants, tomorrow you'd compete with them. The bottom line: The next $1T AI company won't have the smartest chatbot. It'll be the first to turn work into a service you buy like electricity. Crypto Cashtags That Align Tier 1 — Direct "Sell Work" AI Agent Plays: FET — Fetch.ai (ASI Alliance). Autonomous agents automating enterprise workflows. Built for agents doing work, not providing tools. (Ethereum){future}(FETUSDT)$VIRTUAL — Virtuals Protocol on Base. The agent creation infrastructure — a factory for building AI agents that sell outcomes, not subscriptions. (Base)$GRIFFAIN — Griffain on Solana. AI agent that executes on-chain actions. "Sell work" in its purest crypto form — you describe what you want, the agent does the job. SolanaOLAS — Autonolas on Ethereum. A framework for coordinating autonomous agent fleets — think of it as the operating system for a decentralized AI workforce. (Ethereum){alpha}(10x0001a500a6b18995b03f44bb040a5ffc28e45cb0) Tier 2 — AI Infrastructure (the picks & shovels): $TAO — Bittensor. A decentralized AI network where agents train, compete, and earn. The network layer for autonomous work — the protocol that lets AI sell its output peer-to-peer.RENDER — Render Network on Solana. Decentralized GPU compute. Every agent running in production needs compute power — Render is the hardware layer. (Solana){future}(RENDERUSDT) Tier 3 — AI Agent Ecosystem: $AI16Z — ai16z/ElizaOS on Solana. Named after the VC model itself — a DAO-run AI agent fund that makes autonomous investment decisions. Pure meta-commentary on Sequoia's thesis. Solana$ZEREBRO — Zerebro on Solana. An autonomous AI agent creating and distributing content without human intervention. "Sell work" in its most literal form — the agent is the output. Solana The Sequoia filter: The next $1T company sells work, not software. In crypto, that means looking past the tool tokens and toward the agent workforce tokens — the protocols where AI doesn't just assist, but replaces the $6 of services for every $1 of software. Not financial advice. #NewsAboutCrypto #StrategicInvesting #BTC #SequoiaCapital

Sequoia: "The Next $1T Company Sells Work, Not Software"

Sequoia Capital — the firm that backed Apple, Google, Nvidia, YouTube, Airbnb, Stripe — dropped a thesis worth reading closely.
The old model: For 20+ years, tech sold software. Microsoft sells Office, Adobe sells Photoshop, Salesforce sells CRM. Tools that help humans work faster. Copilot for everything.
The problem: Customers don't want software. They want work done. You don't want accounting software — you want books closed on time, taxes filed, reports delivered.
The insight: For every $1 businesses spend on software, they spend $6 on services. SaaS has been fighting over that $1. AI can now digitize the $6 — the knowledge workforce itself.
The map: Sequoia's Opportunity Map plots work by Intelligence vs. Judgement, Outsourced vs. Insourced. The sweet spot: highly standardized, already outsourced workflows — Insurance Brokerage ($140-200B), Accounting ($50-80B), Healthcare Revenue Cycle ($50-80B).
2025 = Copilot. 2026 = Autopilot. The winners won't build AI tools for accountants — they'll build AI accounting firms. Sequoia warns most Copilot startups face the Innovator's Dilemma: today you sell software to accountants, tomorrow you'd compete with them.
The bottom line: The next $1T AI company won't have the smartest chatbot. It'll be the first to turn work into a service you buy like electricity.
Crypto Cashtags That Align
Tier 1 — Direct "Sell Work" AI Agent Plays:
FET — Fetch.ai (ASI Alliance). Autonomous agents automating enterprise workflows. Built for agents doing work, not providing tools. (Ethereum)$VIRTUAL — Virtuals Protocol on Base. The agent creation infrastructure — a factory for building AI agents that sell outcomes, not subscriptions. (Base)$GRIFFAIN — Griffain on Solana. AI agent that executes on-chain actions. "Sell work" in its purest crypto form — you describe what you want, the agent does the job. SolanaOLAS — Autonolas on Ethereum. A framework for coordinating autonomous agent fleets — think of it as the operating system for a decentralized AI workforce. (Ethereum)Tier 2 — AI Infrastructure (the picks & shovels):
$TAO — Bittensor. A decentralized AI network where agents train, compete, and earn. The network layer for autonomous work — the protocol that lets AI sell its output peer-to-peer.RENDER — Render Network on Solana. Decentralized GPU compute. Every agent running in production needs compute power — Render is the hardware layer. (Solana)Tier 3 — AI Agent Ecosystem:
$AI16Z — ai16z/ElizaOS on Solana. Named after the VC model itself — a DAO-run AI agent fund that makes autonomous investment decisions. Pure meta-commentary on Sequoia's thesis. Solana$ZEREBRO — Zerebro on Solana. An autonomous AI agent creating and distributing content without human intervention. "Sell work" in its most literal form — the agent is the output. Solana
The Sequoia filter: The next $1T company sells work, not software. In crypto, that means looking past the tool tokens and toward the agent workforce tokens — the protocols where AI doesn't just assist, but replaces the $6 of services for every $1 of software.
Not financial advice.
#NewsAboutCrypto #StrategicInvesting #BTC #SequoiaCapital
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Bearish
$MARSCOIN — 🟢 SHORT Confidence: 75% 📌 Trade Plan: Entry Zone: 0.1189874 – 0.1210326 (Current Price: ~0.1200) Stop Loss (SL): 0.1531143 Targets: TP1: 0.0951818 TP2: 0.0786297 TP3: 0.0538015 {future}(MARSCOINUSDT) 💡 Setup Rationale: Optimal Entry: Price on the 1H timeframe (~0.1200) is holding neatly within our entry zone. Meanwhile, the 15M RSI at 35.03 confirms buyer exhaustion and growing downside momentum. Volatility & Expansion: The 1H ATR of 0.0092 signals enough volatility to drive price toward TP1 (0.0951), with potential for a deeper liquidity sweep down to TP2 (0.0786) if momentum accelerates. Macro Context & Risk: Since the Daily chart remains in a wider range, this trade is a directional fade from the upper boundary rather than a trend continuation. Given the elevated risk profile of counter-trend setups, reduce position size and strictly honor the SL at 0.1531. 💬 Community Debate: Are we heading straight for TP1 at 0.0951, or is this a bear trap before a range breakout? Drop your thoughts below! 👇 #appledebutsfoldablephone #US10YTreasuryYieldHitsHighestSinceNov2023 #USTreasuryToBuyBackUpTo$6BLongDatedDebt #BrentCrudeTops$100 #EUExtendsCentralContactPointToCASPs
$MARSCOIN — 🟢 SHORT
Confidence: 75%

📌 Trade Plan:
Entry Zone: 0.1189874 – 0.1210326 (Current Price: ~0.1200)
Stop Loss (SL): 0.1531143
Targets:
TP1: 0.0951818
TP2: 0.0786297
TP3: 0.0538015

💡 Setup Rationale:

Optimal Entry: Price on the 1H timeframe (~0.1200) is holding neatly within our entry zone. Meanwhile, the 15M RSI at 35.03 confirms buyer exhaustion and growing downside momentum.

Volatility & Expansion: The 1H ATR of 0.0092 signals enough volatility to drive price toward TP1 (0.0951), with potential for a deeper liquidity sweep down to TP2 (0.0786) if momentum accelerates.

Macro Context & Risk: Since the Daily chart remains in a wider range, this trade is a directional fade from the upper boundary rather than a trend continuation. Given the elevated risk profile of counter-trend setups, reduce position size and strictly honor the SL at 0.1531.

💬 Community Debate:

Are we heading straight for TP1 at 0.0951, or is this a bear trap before a range breakout? Drop your thoughts below! 👇

#appledebutsfoldablephone #US10YTreasuryYieldHitsHighestSinceNov2023 #USTreasuryToBuyBackUpTo$6BLongDatedDebt #BrentCrudeTops$100 #EUExtendsCentralContactPointToCASPs
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Bearish
$LAB - 🟢 SHORT Entry: 0.0650472 – 0.0652728 SL: 0.0674449 TP1: 0.0634464 TP2: 0.0623039 TP3: 0.0605903 {future}(LABUSDT) Trade Rationale & Technical Justification Confluence Entry at Key Supply Zone (0.0650 – 0.0652): This price range marks a crucial Order Block / resistance level where buying momentum is showing clear signs of exhaustion. Scaling into this tight range allows us to catch the liquidity sweep at the highs right before a structural breakdown without missing the entry. Tight Risk Management (SL: 0.0674449): The Stop Loss is strategically placed just above the recent swing high. With a tight invalidation level (~3.5% distance from entry), downside risk is strictly capped. If price breaches 0.0674, the bearish structure is invalidated, making a clean exit the most logical move. Disciplined Scale-Out Strategy for Optimal R:R: TP1 (0.0634464): Initial target at the nearest intraday support (~2.6% downside). Hitting TP1 allows us to secure partial profits and shift the Stop Loss to breakeven, converting this into a risk-free trade. TP2 (0.0623039): Mid-term target aligned with the next structural liquidity pool, maximizing returns as selling pressure accelerates. TP3 (0.0605903): Full extension target (~7% drop from entry). Reaching TP3 delivers an overall Risk-to-Reward (R:R) ratio of around 1:2, ensuring a highly asymmetric trade setup. #AppleDebutsFoldablePhone #EUExtendsCentralContactPointToCASPs #US10YTreasuryYieldHitsHighestSinceNov2023 #USTreasuryToBuyBackUpTo$6BLongDatedDebt #BitcoinSurpasses$79K
$LAB - 🟢 SHORT

Entry: 0.0650472 – 0.0652728
SL: 0.0674449
TP1: 0.0634464
TP2: 0.0623039
TP3: 0.0605903

Trade Rationale & Technical Justification

Confluence Entry at Key Supply Zone (0.0650 – 0.0652): This price range marks a crucial Order Block / resistance level where buying momentum is showing clear signs of exhaustion. Scaling into this tight range allows us to catch the liquidity sweep at the highs right before a structural breakdown without missing the entry.

Tight Risk Management (SL: 0.0674449): The Stop Loss is strategically placed just above the recent swing high. With a tight invalidation level (~3.5% distance from entry), downside risk is strictly capped. If price breaches 0.0674, the bearish structure is invalidated, making a clean exit the most logical move.

Disciplined Scale-Out Strategy for Optimal R:R:

TP1 (0.0634464): Initial target at the nearest intraday support (~2.6% downside). Hitting TP1 allows us to secure partial profits and shift the Stop Loss to breakeven, converting this into a risk-free trade.

TP2 (0.0623039): Mid-term target aligned with the next structural liquidity pool, maximizing returns as selling pressure accelerates.

TP3 (0.0605903): Full extension target (~7% drop from entry). Reaching TP3 delivers an overall Risk-to-Reward (R:R) ratio of around 1:2, ensuring a highly asymmetric trade setup.

#AppleDebutsFoldablePhone #EUExtendsCentralContactPointToCASPs #US10YTreasuryYieldHitsHighestSinceNov2023 #USTreasuryToBuyBackUpTo$6BLongDatedDebt #BitcoinSurpasses$79K
The US Treasury Buyback Expansion: What $6B Means for Liquidity & Yields The US Department of the Treasury announced an increase in its long-dated debt buyback ceiling—up to $6 billion for a single operation. This expansion scales up the Treasury's liquidity support framework, focusing on purchasing older, less liquid 10-year and 20-year coupon securities. 1. Strategic Objectives 💥Improving Market Depth: By absorbing off-the-run (older) long-term bonds, the Treasury frees up balance sheet capacity for primary dealers, helping them market newer issue (on-the-run) Treasuries. 💥Yield Curve Smoothing: High supply pressure on long-duration paper can distort rates. Increasing buyback caps gives the Treasury broader flexibility to manage structural supply-demand mismatches at the long end. 💥Liquidity Maintenance: Rather than relying solely on the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tools, the Treasury leverages buybacks as an ongoing, structural mechanism to prevent localized liquidity freezes in sovereign debt markets. 2. Key Market & Macro Impacts 💥Bond Market Efficiency: Reduces bid-ask spreads for off-the-run Treasuries and supports market-making activities during periods of elevated volatility. 💥Issuance Dynamics: To fund these buybacks, the Treasury typically issues shorter-term debt (such as T-Bills), effectively shifting the debt maturity profile toward the shorter end. 💥Broader Asset Classes: Enhanced stability in benchmark Treasury yields provides clearer pricing anchors for mortgages, corporate bonds, and risk assets. $XAU $NVDAB $BZ #AppleDebutsFoldablePhone #EUExtendsCentralContactPointToCASPs #US10YTreasuryYieldHitsHighestSinceNov2023 #BitcoinSurpasses$79K
The US Treasury Buyback Expansion: What $6B Means for Liquidity & Yields

The US Department of the Treasury announced an increase in its long-dated debt buyback ceiling—up to $6 billion for a single operation. This expansion scales up the Treasury's liquidity support framework, focusing on purchasing older, less liquid 10-year and 20-year coupon securities.

1. Strategic Objectives
💥Improving Market Depth: By absorbing off-the-run (older) long-term bonds, the Treasury frees up balance sheet capacity for primary dealers, helping them market newer issue (on-the-run) Treasuries.

💥Yield Curve Smoothing: High supply pressure on long-duration paper can distort rates. Increasing buyback caps gives the Treasury broader flexibility to manage structural supply-demand mismatches at the long end.

💥Liquidity Maintenance: Rather than relying solely on the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tools, the Treasury leverages buybacks as an ongoing, structural mechanism to prevent localized liquidity freezes in sovereign debt markets.

2. Key Market & Macro Impacts
💥Bond Market Efficiency: Reduces bid-ask spreads for off-the-run Treasuries and supports market-making activities during periods of elevated volatility.

💥Issuance Dynamics: To fund these buybacks, the Treasury typically issues shorter-term debt (such as T-Bills), effectively shifting the debt maturity profile toward the shorter end.

💥Broader Asset Classes: Enhanced stability in benchmark Treasury yields provides clearer pricing anchors for mortgages, corporate bonds, and risk assets.

$XAU $NVDAB $BZ
#AppleDebutsFoldablePhone #EUExtendsCentralContactPointToCASPs #US10YTreasuryYieldHitsHighestSinceNov2023 #BitcoinSurpasses$79K
🚨 Big News for Crypto in Europe! 🇪🇺👇 The EU is officially extending the Central Contact Point (CCP) requirement to CASPs (Crypto-Asset Service Providers)! If you’re running a crypto platform, exchange, or custody service operating in the EU, here is what this means for you: 📍 What’s changing? CASPs operating cross-border within the EU must now establish a dedicated Central Contact Point in host Member States to streamline compliance, anti-money laundering (AML) oversight, and communication with local regulators. ⚡ Why it matters: Enhanced Regulatory Oversight: No more operating in regulatory blind spots. Stronger Consumer Protection: Fast-track communication for fraud prevention and law enforcement requests. Standardized Operations: Paves the way for seamless integration under MiCA framework standards. Is this a step forward for institutional trust, or added friction for Web3 innovation? 🤔 Drop your thoughts below! 💬 $XRP $SUI $ZEC #euextendscentralcontactpointtocasps #AppleDebutsFoldablePhone #US10YTreasuryYieldHitsHighestSinceNov2023 #USTreasuryToBuyBackUpTo$6BLongDatedDebt #BitcoinSurpasses$79K
🚨 Big News for Crypto in Europe! 🇪🇺👇

The EU is officially extending the Central Contact Point (CCP) requirement to CASPs (Crypto-Asset Service Providers)!

If you’re running a crypto platform, exchange, or custody service operating in the EU, here is what this means for you:

📍 What’s changing? CASPs operating cross-border within the EU must now establish a dedicated Central Contact Point in host Member States to streamline compliance, anti-money laundering (AML) oversight, and communication with local regulators.

⚡ Why it matters:
Enhanced Regulatory Oversight: No more operating in regulatory blind spots.

Stronger Consumer Protection: Fast-track communication for fraud prevention and law enforcement requests.

Standardized Operations: Paves the way for seamless integration under MiCA framework standards.

Is this a step forward for institutional trust, or added friction for Web3 innovation? 🤔

Drop your thoughts below! 💬

$XRP $SUI $ZEC
#euextendscentralcontactpointtocasps #AppleDebutsFoldablePhone #US10YTreasuryYieldHitsHighestSinceNov2023 #USTreasuryToBuyBackUpTo$6BLongDatedDebt #BitcoinSurpasses$79K
Verified
ZEC-0.84%
AAPL-0.27%
GOOGLUS+0.22%
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Bullish
🚨 $XRP : THE WHALE MIRROR JUST FLIPPED — AND LAST TIME THIS SETUP PRINTED A PARABOLIC PUMP. Whale long ratio, past week: 73%. Whale short ratio right before the breakout: 70%. Read that again. Last cycle, whales were ~ 70% short and $XRP did the exact opposite of what the crowd "knew" — it ripped violently . The liquidity everyone was sure would dump turned into fuel for the squeeze. Now the mirror image is loading: • Whales ~ 73% long  • Price up ~40% in a month , printing green while BTC wobbles at $79K • Sitting right under supply at $1.44–$1.50 , with ETF inflows and Schwab collateral headlines doing the marketing for free When positioning gets this one-sided, the question stops being "what's the news?" — it becomes "who's left to buy?" History says these extremes resolve violently. Just usually against the crowd. The pump happened while they were short. The pullback happens while they're long. High probability a dip wave is loading — not a call to exit, just a reminder not to be the last one holding when 73% of one side decides it's time to take profit. {future}(XRPUSDT) {future}(BTRUSDT) {future}(ZECUSDT) Position sizing > conviction. DYOR. Not financial advice. $ZEC $BTR #GrayscaleZcashETFTops$500M #USStrikesTargetsNearHormuzAndJask #OilRisesToHighestSinceJuly #USDestroysFiveIranianOilTankers #IranSaysItStruckTwoUSDestroyers
🚨 $XRP : THE WHALE MIRROR JUST FLIPPED — AND LAST TIME THIS SETUP PRINTED A PARABOLIC PUMP.

Whale long ratio, past week: 73%. Whale short ratio right before the breakout: 70%.

Read that again.

Last cycle, whales were ~ 70% short and $XRP did the exact opposite of what the crowd "knew" — it ripped violently . The liquidity everyone was sure would dump turned into fuel for the squeeze.

Now the mirror image is loading:
• Whales ~ 73% long
• Price up ~40% in a month , printing green while BTC wobbles at $79K
• Sitting right under supply at $1.44–$1.50 , with ETF inflows and Schwab collateral headlines doing the marketing for free
When positioning gets this one-sided, the question stops being "what's the news?" — it becomes "who's left to buy?"

History says these extremes resolve violently. Just usually against the crowd.

The pump happened while they were short. The pullback happens while they're long.

High probability a dip wave is loading — not a call to exit, just a reminder not to be the last one holding when 73% of one side decides it's time to take profit.


Position sizing > conviction. DYOR. Not financial advice.

$ZEC $BTR #GrayscaleZcashETFTops$500M #USStrikesTargetsNearHormuzAndJask #OilRisesToHighestSinceJuly #USDestroysFiveIranianOilTankers #IranSaysItStruckTwoUSDestroyers
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Bullish
Verified
🛢️ OIL IS AT ITS HIGHEST SINCE JULY — AND IT'S NOT DONE YET. Brent just ripped past $99 for the first time since July 24 , closing near $98 and tapping $100 overnight . WTI is at a 3-month high (~$94) , up +41% since July 2 . Shanghai crude already cleared $100. This isn't one war anymore. It's three supply shocks stacking at once: 🇺🇸🤝🇮🇷 US vs Iran: CENTCOM just sank 5 Iranian oil tankers (45M barrels of exports since 2019 — gone). Tehran retaliated by claiming hits on two US destroyers and firing ~40 missiles at US bases in Jordan. 🇾🇪🇸🇦 Houthis vs Saudi: Fresh strikes on Aramco facilities in Abha, Najran & Jazan — 73 injured . The 400K bpd Jazan refinery has been offline since July and keeps eating missiles. 🇨🇳 China: Oil demand unexpectedly soars, Shanghai crude >$100. Because of course. The Strait of Hormuz — 20% of global supply — has been a war zone for 190 days. Only a handful of commercial tankers are still running it. Here's the part markets are only now waking up to: This oil spike is re-coupling with rates. Fed HIKE odds are climbing again, Dow already fell 626 points, and CPI lands Friday — with FOMC just 7 days after. Oil at $100 is the single worst input for that setup. @KobeissiLetter put it simply: at this pace, US oil is above $100 by Friday. Something has to give — or inflation gets much worse. Stagflation is no longer a tail risk. It's the base case being repriced in real time. Bonds, equities, crypto, gold — everything is now a derivative of one question: How high can oil go before the Fed breaks something? {future}(XAUUSDT) {future}(BZUSDT) {future}(CLUSDT) $XAU $BZ $CL #oilrisestohighestsincejuly #USDestroysFiveIranianOilTankers #IranSaysItStruckTwoUSDestroyers #USStocksCloseLowerIntelRises9% #DowFallsOver600Points
🛢️ OIL IS AT ITS HIGHEST SINCE JULY — AND IT'S NOT DONE YET.

Brent just ripped past $99 for the first time since July 24 , closing near $98 and tapping $100 overnight . WTI is at a 3-month high (~$94) , up +41% since July 2 . Shanghai crude already cleared $100.

This isn't one war anymore. It's three supply shocks stacking at once:

🇺🇸🤝🇮🇷 US vs Iran: CENTCOM just sank 5 Iranian oil tankers (45M barrels of exports since 2019 — gone). Tehran retaliated by claiming hits on two US destroyers and firing ~40 missiles at US bases in Jordan.

🇾🇪🇸🇦 Houthis vs Saudi: Fresh strikes on Aramco facilities in Abha, Najran & Jazan — 73 injured . The 400K bpd Jazan refinery has been offline since July and keeps eating missiles.

🇨🇳 China: Oil demand unexpectedly soars, Shanghai crude >$100. Because of course.

The Strait of Hormuz — 20% of global supply — has been a war zone for 190 days. Only a handful of commercial tankers are still running it.

Here's the part markets are only now waking up to:
This oil spike is re-coupling with rates. Fed HIKE odds are climbing again, Dow already fell 626 points, and CPI lands Friday — with FOMC just 7 days after. Oil at $100 is the single worst input for that setup.

@KobeissiLetter put it simply: at this pace, US oil is above $100 by Friday. Something has to give — or inflation gets much worse.
Stagflation is no longer a tail risk. It's the base case being repriced in real time. Bonds, equities, crypto, gold — everything is now a derivative of one question:

How high can oil go before the Fed breaks something?

$XAU $BZ $CL
#oilrisestohighestsincejuly #USDestroysFiveIranianOilTankers #IranSaysItStruckTwoUSDestroyers #USStocksCloseLowerIntelRises9% #DowFallsOver600Points
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