RICARDO07

In a trader’s life, there are different stages, but almost all of them are hidden in percentage losses of their capital and, more than once, the loss of entire accounts. And it is there—in all those losses—that lessons are hidden, lessons that shape their character. It is there that we learn to prioritize strategy over the potential to earn more, gain self-control, and see greed as a red warning light.
After understanding the trend, we learn that those who trade like whales do so in their own interests. They push the market down when it should logically be rising, liquidate positions, confuse and mislead others... The market can remain irrational longer than we think. We learn to wait in that environment, to invest at the right moment, and to know why we are doing it. And it is there that, after seemingly being a loser, someone emerges who climbs, builds capital, and creates something...
If you have lost, if you have made mistakes, if you have blown an account... welcome to this world, where you will grow if you DO NOT GIVE UP.

#BTC☀ $BTC #mercado
BEFORE panicking over the narrative that we could fall to 74k–75k—which IS POSSIBLE, but from my perspective IS UNLIKELY—let me explain my position:

Based on the technical analysis of the MONTHLY structure, here is a visual representation of what the 80K–79K zone represents: we’re talking about a SUPPORT–RESISTANCE zone with EXTREMELY HIGH liquidity for more than 6 YEARS.

A second detail I want you to observe in the images is that once this huge monthly zone is crossed, it isn’t breached again in a single candle. Let me explain: price breaks above the 78k–82K resistance, and the next candle does NOT break below it. INSTEAD, THE CANDLE MAY BE BEARISH, but only to TEST the former resistance, which has now become SUPPORT. And I want to emphasize, everyone: this is the MONTHLY timeframe...

As a result, the most likely scenario is that if price crosses the zone, tests it, and continues upward—or that price reaches the resistance zone, as it did in 2020–2022, moves sideways for a while, and then turns back down. In conclusion, this is a major cycle support or resistance zone, and being above or below it carries significant implications.

My second point is the fundamental reason we are currently holding above 80K despite this intense selling pressure—which is real—driven by fears surrounding the US elections, financing for AI companies, the US–Iran war, the Russia–Ukraine war, etc. It’s because of the DEVALUATION TRADE. Let me put this in context with two main examples:

The US has a GDP of 32 trillion dollars, and its debt represents 123% of GDP—that’s 40 trillion. It also has a fiscal deficit of 1.99 trillion, or 6.2% of GDP. The cost of interest payments is so high that it has become the second-largest item in the national budget, after insurance, on which they spend 1.5T; debt interest payments come next, at 1.05 trillion.

France:
GDP = 3.02 trillion; fiscal deficit = 5.4% of GDP = 163 billion, and with this deficit, its debt stands at 3.6 trillion, which is equal to 119.3% of GDP.

Everyone, in conclusion: DEVALUATION IS COMING.

#BTC☀ $BTC Just a few days before the U.S. midterm elections, the outlook is becoming very uncertain for the market, for Republicans, and especially for Trump, whose approval rating is below 40%.
Given this situation—that is, political uncertainty, an energy crisis, and turmoil in traditional markets—BTC is sending a signal that seems to anticipate what’s coming. Here’s my take.

1) BTC is consolidating in a descending wedge chart pattern, which breaks upward the vast majority of the time. By definition, this is a continuation pattern...

2) Just days before an event as significant as the midterm elections, and amid the uncertainty they bring to the market, BTC has spent 11 days above its 50-day moving average, with a very strong absorption zone between 80k and 79k. The price has remained slightly above its average price over the last 50 days.

My conclusion is that the signal I’m getting is that whale investors don’t see the situation the way we do. In other words, if they’re defending the 50-day zone, they’re pricing in the idea that the upcoming political event, regardless of the final outcome, will EASE TENSIONS in the market, remove uncertainty, and allow the move to continue. Put another way, they’re defending the price for a structural reason that’s bigger than this temporary noise.

NOTE: That doesn’t mean there’s no selling pressure.

Secondly, in just the last ten days, while the price has been above its 50-day moving average, there has been a monstrous volume of more than 160k BTC, or over 13 BILLION dollars.

FOLKS, that’s a huge amount for this point in time, given the uncertainty we’re facing.

I think BTC is pricing in an inevitable MONETARY EXPANSION, and investors are in the midst of a cold war of coin accumulation, taking advantage of sales driven by temporary fear and uncertainty.

Lastly, I’d like to point out that there are more than 70 million crypto voters in the U.S., and I wouldn’t rule out Trump trying to PUMP the market.

$BTC #BTC☀️
Based on fundamental and technical reasons, here is my projection for the most likely continuation of BTC price action. Below are the reasons supporting the new trend:

1) Institutional regulation by the SEC and CFTC

2) Growth in the global M2 money supply and greater global liquidity chasing the same goods and services, amid a demographic crisis that leaves the world’s economies little room to increase production, forcing them to resort to inevitable money printing worldwide, starting with the Fed, the ECB, and the People’s Bank of China

3) Expansion of the following trends:
A) Tokenization
B) AI and autonomous agents
C) General reform of the SWIFT system toward BLOCKCHAIN

These fundamental reasons brought about the change in trend and are keeping it going. With that in mind, and on this basis, BTC above 80k is sitting on a structural trend support level and forming a base for the next bullish phase from here on.
Technically, I expect this move to reach the 100k zone, followed by a Fibonacci retracement to the 61 zone, and then a move toward price discovery after breaking the high.
THIS IS MY THESIS AND MY ARGUMENTS

Despite the unfavorable inflation data, THETA fell sharply, reaching the 0.1840 area, where it found absorption that pushed the price back to 0.19...

The key is BITCOIN: as long as it holds the 80k area, THETA and altcoins will respect the trend and the structure. But most importantly, there’s the institutional position THETA has been building over time. Once all financial markets are on the blockchain, I think projects like this will have their own price action, completely uncorrelated with BTC and speculation.$THETA

$BTC #BTC We're at a point where it's easy for everyone to say that Theta is going to break through the $0.19 level. And if we look at the short term—that is, the 1–4h chart—the downside is obvious. But if we zoom out and look at the larger fractal, we can see that Theta is in a bullish expansion and that the $0.19 level has been strongly defended for 8 months. The point is that this selling pressure is only testing this structural support zone, and the same thing is happening with BTC.
In conclusion, I don't expect further declines, but rather absorption in this zone and a weekly candle close above the 50-day moving average. My argument for this is that the reason for the rally is NOT invalidated by one macroeconomic data point; it's the accumulation of conditions that got BTC and altcoins out of the bear market. $THETA

evidently there is not much to say about BTC in terms of technical analysis, but there are interesting things to highlight. The first is that in weekly fractality, BTC candles have closed with long bearish wicks and small candle bodies, thus leaving an evident absorption structure showing that this new trading range zone is a zone of high psychological interest where it is very likely that BTC is neither expensive enough to be considered costly nor undervalued enough to be considered devalued. This is from the perspective of the large institutions that are accumulating. All of this could be indicating that we might be facing institutional support, so to speak, where after a probable accumulation period, when the floating supply finishes, we will enter what I believe is a parabolic phase of the price towards price discovery.

practically all assets are at highs, with sp500, GOLD, SILVER, and nasdaq as protagonists except crypto.
considering the macro outlook from an economic point of view with a depreciating dollar, from a legislative point of view the market is being discussed for clear regulation (CLARITY ACT) and is being aggressively adopted by institutions and ETFs, it makes no sense for it to be the only market devalued against the dollar not to be:
THAT IT BE the only industry that strategically has it undervalued due to strategic interests and if that was the case, at the right moment the market in GENERAL will explode with significant aggression ...

I have followed up on this project and it is a true work of art for a high liquidity environment.

this guy is an excellent contrarian every time he says that the price is going to rise or that brutal weeks are coming the market crashes hahahahaha

interesting I think you are right