三和社区-大橙子

#SpaceX The Q2 earnings report is about to be released
Tomorrow after the close, SPCX will deliver its first earnings report since going public. The current share price has already been cut in half, and further downside remains possible. However, the average target price provided by Wall Street analysts is as high as $236—nearly double the current price. That could mean institutional investors are collectively misreading the situation, or we may be witnessing a particularly unusual stretch of history.

Bears are willing to bet $24.6 billion against SpaceX, and the core reason is that this is a “two-way burn” business: Starlink is already profitable. It’s projected to deliver Q2 revenue of $3.82 billion and operating profit of $1.42 billion. But Starship R&D and AI initiatives are疯狂 draining cash—quarterly capital expenditures are expected to reach $14.05 billion, including $10.2 billion devoted solely to AI projects. Profitability and massive investment offset each other.

Starlink user numbers have surpassed 10.3 million, but ARPU (revenue per user) has fallen by 25%. User growth is being sustained through price cuts. Starship, after completing its first successful flight following the IPO, has smoothly launched 20 V3 satellites. The technology is iterating steadily, but commercial rollout is still a long way off.

The biggest variable arrives on August 6: 911.5 million shares of restricted stock are about to be released. Currently, shares available to the public represent only 5% of the total share capital. Even if the earnings report triggers only the first tranche—still just 20% released—it would create substantial selling pressure on the stock price.

At this stage, I don’t lean strongly in either direction. A strong earnings beat may simply be “priced in” and lead to declines after the fact. If results miss expectations, it could make things worse. The company is being pulled in both directions—by technological idealism and the capital markets. Institutions are calling it up, bears are pressing short, and retail investors are wavering. I choose to stand by and wait until this round of lock-up release pressure settles before making a judgment.

With long-term conviction, you can choose to hold—but this is by no means a moment to buy blindly. SpaceX’s story is compelling. Stories that move people also often conceal risks.
#SpaceXBIPOSPXTrades

Shorting at the high position + pressure position = high win rate. $B
The profit from going long on this coin is substantial.
However, the risk of going long is quite high.

Spot and futures are carried out at the same time
The contract accounts for 2% of the total investment
Start recurring investment with $BTC and $BNB . Do simple things repeatedly.
Years 1–2: Strictly follow fixed recurring investments; use additional funds cautiously;
Year 3: Based on gains and losses, evaluate for the first time whether to take profit;
Year 4: Complete one full cycle of recurring investments, review and organize your assets as a whole, and decide whether to continue recurring investments or adjust your allocation.
Today is July 11, 2026. The goal is to complete the target by July 11, 2030. Keep going, keep going, keep going!