rulework
即使一无所有，也要w雨绸缪
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This person is a show-off, enjoying themselves here.
Iran has begun to surrender.
All scams are dead, do not believe any dead cat bounce
小树苗 Berachain
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After a busy day, I went shopping for New Year's goods and new clothes with my mom, did some cleaning, and washed the car.
When I'm with my mom, I have to hold back all my emotions.
Do you know how much my heart hurts? It's simply heartbreaking.
On February 10, just two days ago, I opened a long position of 26,000 lots at 10 times leverage on $BERA .
At that time, I was worried about a market pullback and closed the position after holding it for more than two hours.
Today, $BERA surged and blew up the bears' positions.
From a low of 0.33 to 1.53, that's a direct 5 times increase.
If I had held onto my long position, I could immediately buy a big Benz GLS450 right now, okay?
Many people thought there would be a massive sell-off when unlocking on February 6, but the short covering caused such a violent squeeze.
Sigh, those who should have sold didn't sell, and those who bought couldn't hold on, resulting in the fence-sitting bears being forced to take the positions.
I think it's not surprising to see a 5 times increase from the bottom; this is the market compensating for the liquidity owed to $BERA .
Next time, I will definitely hold on.
When I'm with my mom, I have to hold back all my emotions.
Do you know how much my heart hurts? It's simply heartbreaking.
On February 10, just two days ago, I opened a long position of 26,000 lots at 10 times leverage on $BERA .
At that time, I was worried about a market pullback and closed the position after holding it for more than two hours.
Today, $BERA surged and blew up the bears' positions.
From a low of 0.33 to 1.53, that's a direct 5 times increase.
If I had held onto my long position, I could immediately buy a big Benz GLS450 right now, okay?
Many people thought there would be a massive sell-off when unlocking on February 6, but the short covering caused such a violent squeeze.
Sigh, those who should have sold didn't sell, and those who bought couldn't hold on, resulting in the fence-sitting bears being forced to take the positions.
I think it's not surprising to see a 5 times increase from the bottom; this is the market compensating for the liquidity owed to $BERA .
Next time, I will definitely hold on.
Thinking too much, the U.S. gold reserves are far ahead of the world, and even if Dongda hoards for 10 years, it won't surpass the Americans; speculating on gold essentially helps the Americans to monetize their debt.
Let's talk about the market. The U.S. has taken control of Venezuela and gained control of oil, weakening China. One of China's strategies is gone, which is to weaken U.S. oil—though this is not the most important layout.
China will do one more thing afterward: raise gold prices, increase the value of BRICS countries' currencies, continuously suppress its own currency, and strive to sell more and buy less.
The price of gold is closely related to the dollar. When gold rises, the dollar will weaken, and Peter Schiff's gold trading strategy will be realized. Bitcoin will temporarily enter a weak position because gold has a stronger consensus compared to Bitcoin.
In the short term, gold will likely be very strong unless something unexpected happens. This is because Bitcoin is strongly tied to the dollar, and with the current liquidity returning, I am not optimistic. It feels more like speculation around the January interest rate cut meeting; personally, I think that will be in May or June.
There is another game to pay attention to: silver. Silver has been rising along with gold, so if silver is pushed down, the momentum of gold will weaken. The game between China and the U.S. is still ongoing; it just depends on who wins.
As traders, if we want to remain undefeated, it is recommended to invest in both PAXG and BTC. This allows for betting on both sides, but it does not guarantee victory. The market is always right; the only one who is wrong is oneself.
Conclusion: bullish in the short term, bearish in the medium term.
China will do one more thing afterward: raise gold prices, increase the value of BRICS countries' currencies, continuously suppress its own currency, and strive to sell more and buy less.
The price of gold is closely related to the dollar. When gold rises, the dollar will weaken, and Peter Schiff's gold trading strategy will be realized. Bitcoin will temporarily enter a weak position because gold has a stronger consensus compared to Bitcoin.
In the short term, gold will likely be very strong unless something unexpected happens. This is because Bitcoin is strongly tied to the dollar, and with the current liquidity returning, I am not optimistic. It feels more like speculation around the January interest rate cut meeting; personally, I think that will be in May or June.
There is another game to pay attention to: silver. Silver has been rising along with gold, so if silver is pushed down, the momentum of gold will weaken. The game between China and the U.S. is still ongoing; it just depends on who wins.
As traders, if we want to remain undefeated, it is recommended to invest in both PAXG and BTC. This allows for betting on both sides, but it does not guarantee victory. The market is always right; the only one who is wrong is oneself.
Conclusion: bullish in the short term, bearish in the medium term.
Unspeakably tragic
See how long it will take for altcoins to go to zero.
As shown in Figure 1: Total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies: $2.94 trillion, stablecoins $300 billion (the statistics in the figure show $294 billion, the actual is $304 billion)
So the total market cap excluding stablecoins is:
29400 - 3000 = $26.4 trillion;
Data from the CoinChain News APP: https://app.chainalert.me
As shown in Figure 2, excluding Bitcoin and the top 20 coins:
Bitcoin circulating market cap: $1.74 trillion;
Ethereum circulating market cap: $344 billion;
BNB circulating market cap: $115.5 billion;
XRP circulating market cap: $113.3 billion;
SOL circulating market cap: $69.4 billion;
TRX circulating market cap: $26 billion;
DOGE circulating market cap: $19.1 billion;
ADA circulating market cap: $13 billion;
BCH circulating market cap: $10.7 billion;
LINK circulating market cap: $8.5 billion;
HYPE circulating market cap: $8.2 billion;
XMR circulating market cap: $8 billion;
XLM circulating market cap: $6.8 billion;
ZEC circulating market cap: $6.4 billion;
LTC circulating market cap: $5.8 billion;
LEO circulating market cap: $5.8 billion;
So excluding stablecoins, the total market cap of the top 20 coins is:
17400 + 3440 + 1155 + 1133 + 694 + 260 + 191 + 130 + 107 + 85 + 82 + 80 + 68 + 64 + 58 + 58 = $25.205 trillion
So the circulating market cap of the remaining coins is:
26400 - 25205 = $1195 billion
The above data can be seen here:
https://app.chainalert.me/market?label=%E5%B8%82%E5%80%BC
However, there are some coins in the 20-30 range, such as SUI, AVAX, and UNI that are still doing well; how much market cap does this part account for?
SUI circulating market cap: $5.2 billion;
AVAX circulating market cap: $5 billion;
HBAR circulating market cap: $4.6 billion;
SHIB circulating market cap: $4.4 billion;
MNT circulating market cap: $3.9 billion;
TON circulating market cap: $3.6 billion;
CRO circulating market cap: $3.5 billion;
WLFI circulating market cap: $3.4 billion;
UNI circulating market cap: $3.3 billion;
Excluding stablecoins + after the top 30:
26400 - 25574 = $826 billion
The final situation is:
Stablecoins: ≈ 10%
BTC + ETH: ≈ 71%
Top 30: ≈ 87%
All other altcoins: ≈ 2.8%
This is the lowest ever “altcoin residual value ratio.”
Even lower than:
2018 ICO liquidation period
2020 pandemic panic
2022 after FTX
As shown in Figure 1: Total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies: $2.94 trillion, stablecoins $300 billion (the statistics in the figure show $294 billion, the actual is $304 billion)
So the total market cap excluding stablecoins is:
29400 - 3000 = $26.4 trillion;
Data from the CoinChain News APP: https://app.chainalert.me
As shown in Figure 2, excluding Bitcoin and the top 20 coins:
Bitcoin circulating market cap: $1.74 trillion;
Ethereum circulating market cap: $344 billion;
BNB circulating market cap: $115.5 billion;
XRP circulating market cap: $113.3 billion;
SOL circulating market cap: $69.4 billion;
TRX circulating market cap: $26 billion;
DOGE circulating market cap: $19.1 billion;
ADA circulating market cap: $13 billion;
BCH circulating market cap: $10.7 billion;
LINK circulating market cap: $8.5 billion;
HYPE circulating market cap: $8.2 billion;
XMR circulating market cap: $8 billion;
XLM circulating market cap: $6.8 billion;
ZEC circulating market cap: $6.4 billion;
LTC circulating market cap: $5.8 billion;
LEO circulating market cap: $5.8 billion;
So excluding stablecoins, the total market cap of the top 20 coins is:
17400 + 3440 + 1155 + 1133 + 694 + 260 + 191 + 130 + 107 + 85 + 82 + 80 + 68 + 64 + 58 + 58 = $25.205 trillion
So the circulating market cap of the remaining coins is:
26400 - 25205 = $1195 billion
The above data can be seen here:
https://app.chainalert.me/market?label=%E5%B8%82%E5%80%BC
However, there are some coins in the 20-30 range, such as SUI, AVAX, and UNI that are still doing well; how much market cap does this part account for?
SUI circulating market cap: $5.2 billion;
AVAX circulating market cap: $5 billion;
HBAR circulating market cap: $4.6 billion;
SHIB circulating market cap: $4.4 billion;
MNT circulating market cap: $3.9 billion;
TON circulating market cap: $3.6 billion;
CRO circulating market cap: $3.5 billion;
WLFI circulating market cap: $3.4 billion;
UNI circulating market cap: $3.3 billion;
Excluding stablecoins + after the top 30:
26400 - 25574 = $826 billion
The final situation is:
Stablecoins: ≈ 10%
BTC + ETH: ≈ 71%
Top 30: ≈ 87%
All other altcoins: ≈ 2.8%
This is the lowest ever “altcoin residual value ratio.”
Even lower than:
2018 ICO liquidation period
2020 pandemic panic
2022 after FTX
Awesome, all sorts of strange creatures are here to tell ghost stories.
Binance News
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Bloomberg intelligence strategist: Bitcoin price may fall back to $10,000, market expectations have been digested
According to BlockBeats, on December 17, Bloomberg intelligence strategist Mike McGlone stated that Bitcoin is facing a return pressure, and the price is expected to fall back to near $10,000. Strategy founder Michael Saylor recently said at an event of the Miami Economic Club that we are buying Bitcoin with money we can’t afford to lose.McGlone stated that Saylor pushed Bitcoin's price up tenfold in 2020. Many things the market expected have happened: the emergence of ETFs, U.S. leaders recognizing the benefits of Bitcoin, and mainstream acceptance. Now, the number of cryptocurrencies on CoinMarketCap has reached 28 million, and the short-term risk-return structure has changed.
Although reluctant to admit it, the fact is that there is indeed no difference between the massive unlocking of knockoff shares and the lifting of restrictions on major shareholders in Myanmar; it is no longer possible to support the so-called knockoff season.
My post might offend many people, especially those holding altcoins. The days ahead might be tougher, particularly in the next bull market, where the situation could be worse than imagined. Of course, this doesn't mean that all altcoins are bad; some with real applications are still quite good. What can be observed in this round of the bull market is that there is no widespread altcoin season, and there won't be one in the future. After this round, everyone will have a deep understanding that altcoins cannot change the landscape; the ultimate fate is to go to zero. More and more people will use the money earned from altcoins to dollar-cost average into Bitcoin. Everyone has also recognized that Bitcoin is the ultimate destination. Although it won't skyrocket by a hundred or a thousand times, being able to earn ten times in the future is already very ideal. Let me ask everyone, how many people's returns in this bull market have exceeded ten times? Everyone is gradually realizing that almost all project teams will eventually sell their own coins for others to pick up and exchange for real assets like Bitcoin.
In the upcoming bear market, there is increasing consensus that buying Bitcoin in a bear market is relatively certain, and large funds prefer certain investments. People's thoughts are gradually converging: Bitcoin will at least move from the bear market to the bull market and continuously hit new highs, while altcoins might plummet and never recover. In the previous bull and bear cycles, everyone was still in the mindset that altcoins could rise quickly, potentially a thousand times, but how many people could actually find and grasp such projects? Future cycles will be more centered around Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin bear market will not drop 70-80% as it did before; the volatility will be lower because institutions, sovereign wealth funds, Wall Street, listed companies, and future individuals have all become aware of the problems mentioned above. The proportion of personal investment in Bitcoin will significantly increase.
Before this round of the bull market, the allocation ratio for ordinary people was: 80% in altcoins, as they believed Bitcoin had already increased too much and was too expensive, with little room for further rise. My view is quite the opposite; Bitcoin has the most upside potential because the target has already been set, and it only needs time to validate. No project can achieve consensus like Bitcoin. The future landscape will be: 80% of funds in Bitcoin, and only 20% of funds will be allocated to leading projects with real application strength, such as BNB, Hype, Link, Aave, and other leading utility coins.
In the upcoming bear market, there is increasing consensus that buying Bitcoin in a bear market is relatively certain, and large funds prefer certain investments. People's thoughts are gradually converging: Bitcoin will at least move from the bear market to the bull market and continuously hit new highs, while altcoins might plummet and never recover. In the previous bull and bear cycles, everyone was still in the mindset that altcoins could rise quickly, potentially a thousand times, but how many people could actually find and grasp such projects? Future cycles will be more centered around Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin bear market will not drop 70-80% as it did before; the volatility will be lower because institutions, sovereign wealth funds, Wall Street, listed companies, and future individuals have all become aware of the problems mentioned above. The proportion of personal investment in Bitcoin will significantly increase.
Before this round of the bull market, the allocation ratio for ordinary people was: 80% in altcoins, as they believed Bitcoin had already increased too much and was too expensive, with little room for further rise. My view is quite the opposite; Bitcoin has the most upside potential because the target has already been set, and it only needs time to validate. No project can achieve consensus like Bitcoin. The future landscape will be: 80% of funds in Bitcoin, and only 20% of funds will be allocated to leading projects with real application strength, such as BNB, Hype, Link, Aave, and other leading utility coins.
Now it really feels like December has dropped, which instead has created a bearish situation... All expectations have been gambled away, and once it falls, the number of rate cuts next year will be capped, leading to a direct bearish crash... It's giving me a headache.
蟹老板的进击之路
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Current market conditions depend on the probability of interest rate cuts; with no orders for the new ETF, what should retail investors do?
The current market fluctuations depend entirely on the probability of interest rate cuts; if the probability increases today, the market will rise, and if it decreases tomorrow, the market will fall. Reflecting on this cycle, since the discussion about interest rate cuts in December began, US officials have frequently discussed the probabilities; when it's high, the market rises, and when it's low, the market falls. Isn't this just turmoil in the market?
To be honest, if this back-and-forth continues in the market, don't expect a significant reaction when interest rates really drop in December; such frequent turmoil will only undermine expectations.
Last night, MON officially opened, and as Coinbase's first ICO project, it immediately fell below the issue price, which I did not expect.
To be honest, if this back-and-forth continues in the market, don't expect a significant reaction when interest rates really drop in December; such frequent turmoil will only undermine expectations.
Last night, MON officially opened, and as Coinbase's first ICO project, it immediately fell below the issue price, which I did not expect.
To be honest, I currently feel that ETH's chip structure is actually the best. Firstly, the holdings of ETH data companies have already surpassed those of ETFs, and the chips are becoming increasingly concentrated. Therefore, the outflow of ETFs will not have a significant impact on the price. Moreover, the highest point of ETH this round has only slightly broken the previous bull market's high. This kind of increase, to be honest, is not even close to the differences seen in previous rounds. According to the standards of past rounds, if BTC can reach 127000, then ETH conservatively should be in the range of 7000-8000 to be reasonably matched. Therefore, I believe the potential for ETH's increase is enormous; reaching over 10,000 wouldn't even be surprising. Additionally, many favorable factors for ETH are being wildly ignored by the market. This kind of disregard will ultimately revert, such as the technical upgrades in December, AAVE attracting customers from Web2, UNI activating its buyback switch, Pendle's continuous growth, and Vitalik's latest privacy SDK. According to normal market sentiment in the past, these favorable factors could easily support a significant market trend. However, in the current tense and fragile market, everything is being ignored. This is perhaps a sorrow of the market. But if we extend the timeline and make friends with time, Ethereum is bound to give you unexpected surprises at times you cannot imagine.
To be honest, I'm actually a little worried about a December rate cut. If it does happen, it could very well turn from a positive factor into a negative one. This is because a December rate cut would inevitably make it more difficult to cut rates next year, leading to a more pessimistic outlook. If inflation picks up again, even the already limited number of dovish members at the Fed might turn against them. Conversely, if there's no rate cut in December, but Powell projects multiple rate cuts next year, coupled with a new chairman taking office and inflation falling, then the hawks will gradually become dovish. This would create a lot of room for maneuver, which the market might interpret as a negative factor already priced in, but with a positive long-term outlook, risk sentiment would improve. The market always plays on expectations, so Powell shouldn't compromise too easily.
What can be referenced about this pure zombie coin? Which coins with some value haven't continued to be smashed down with the market? Look at how badly sui, apt, aave, link, tao have been smashed.
K线人生飞哥
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In recent days, the performance of altcoins has been quite good. Although they have fallen alongside the market, at least there hasn't been that kind of panic selling from extreme declines. It's clear that the altcoin traders and project teams do not want to continue selling; they know the price is already very low, and further selling would just be cutting their own flesh.
As long as the market stabilizes, altcoins are basically at their bottom. It’s unlikely that they would suddenly remember to catch up on declines only after the market rebounds, right? Therefore, I still believe there will be a rebound for altcoins in December, as for many altcoins, a rebound is a chance to escape.
In the future, those ordinary altcoins on CEX will basically have no chance to take off again. Unless they are universal infrastructure projects or projects that can generate their own revenue, they will ultimately just eat away at their own resources, having no investment value at all. What we really need to focus on are the value coins that can traverse bull and bear markets; it’s better to give up on other junk coins sooner for peace of mind.
As long as the market stabilizes, altcoins are basically at their bottom. It’s unlikely that they would suddenly remember to catch up on declines only after the market rebounds, right? Therefore, I still believe there will be a rebound for altcoins in December, as for many altcoins, a rebound is a chance to escape.
In the future, those ordinary altcoins on CEX will basically have no chance to take off again. Unless they are universal infrastructure projects or projects that can generate their own revenue, they will ultimately just eat away at their own resources, having no investment value at all. What we really need to focus on are the value coins that can traverse bull and bear markets; it’s better to give up on other junk coins sooner for peace of mind.
It's always been in a bear market, and I haven't felt a bull market.
K线人生飞哥
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Is this wave a deep correction or is a bear market coming???
Most people now think this wave is just a deep correction, but at the moment it looks a bit like a bear market. If the trend changes later, I will adjust my viewpoint at any time; it's not a dead long or a dead short. The main reason is very simple: this wave dropped from 126k too quickly, so fast that it doesn't resemble a healthy correction at all, with key price levels being pierced one after another—100k and 90k couldn't hold, and there was almost no substantial buying resistance. Historically, a normal bull market correction wouldn't be this smooth; there would definitely be people insisting on bottom-fishing and short covering, the rhythm wouldn't be so smooth.
If you compare the past two rounds of highs, you will see how different the trends are. The wave in 2024 dropped from 73k to 49k, a drop of 32%, taking a full four months; the wave in January 2025 dropped from 110k to 74k, also a drop of 32%, taking three months. But this time, from 126k to now, it has dropped almost 30%, and it hasn't even been two months. This speed indicates one problem: the buying zone is basically empty, no one is catching it, and the resistance is extremely small, so the time is compressed dramatically.
I once said: the market's direction of least resistance actually just looks at time. When it can't push, time will stretch out very long; when it slides down easily, time will be compressed to an extremely short span. This time is a typical example of the latter, so I am pessimistic about the performance in the coming months.
So when will the reversal happen? Wait until the new low after the new high is confirmed, then consider a reversal after it rebounds at least 15% from this low point. For example, if the current low point is 80600, just wait for it to bounce back to around 88k and hold. I use 15% as a boundary to distinguish between normal rebounds and real reversals.
As for those who say 'Bitcoin is falling but altcoins are not, so it's a false drop,' I do not agree. Looking back, the bear market for altcoins actually started when BTC was in a sideways trend; that wave on October 11 had already wiped out the leverage cleanly, and now the altcoin rebound is just a normal elasticity after the chips are clean, not BTC trying to deceive with a drop.
Most people now think this wave is just a deep correction, but at the moment it looks a bit like a bear market. If the trend changes later, I will adjust my viewpoint at any time; it's not a dead long or a dead short. The main reason is very simple: this wave dropped from 126k too quickly, so fast that it doesn't resemble a healthy correction at all, with key price levels being pierced one after another—100k and 90k couldn't hold, and there was almost no substantial buying resistance. Historically, a normal bull market correction wouldn't be this smooth; there would definitely be people insisting on bottom-fishing and short covering, the rhythm wouldn't be so smooth.
If you compare the past two rounds of highs, you will see how different the trends are. The wave in 2024 dropped from 73k to 49k, a drop of 32%, taking a full four months; the wave in January 2025 dropped from 110k to 74k, also a drop of 32%, taking three months. But this time, from 126k to now, it has dropped almost 30%, and it hasn't even been two months. This speed indicates one problem: the buying zone is basically empty, no one is catching it, and the resistance is extremely small, so the time is compressed dramatically.
I once said: the market's direction of least resistance actually just looks at time. When it can't push, time will stretch out very long; when it slides down easily, time will be compressed to an extremely short span. This time is a typical example of the latter, so I am pessimistic about the performance in the coming months.
So when will the reversal happen? Wait until the new low after the new high is confirmed, then consider a reversal after it rebounds at least 15% from this low point. For example, if the current low point is 80600, just wait for it to bounce back to around 88k and hold. I use 15% as a boundary to distinguish between normal rebounds and real reversals.
As for those who say 'Bitcoin is falling but altcoins are not, so it's a false drop,' I do not agree. Looking back, the bear market for altcoins actually started when BTC was in a sideways trend; that wave on October 11 had already wiped out the leverage cleanly, and now the altcoin rebound is just a normal elasticity after the chips are clean, not BTC trying to deceive with a drop.
It looks like tonight the big pancake will at least reach 80,000, and the second pancake will at least reach 240.
K线人生飞哥
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🇺🇸 BlackRock deposited 4198 BTC and 43237 ETH into Coinbase Prime. After finishing today, BlackRock should be able to take a break for two days over the weekend.
This coin feels like the operators have run away, it's already becoming a dead coin.
加密眼界
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BullishIf SOL is to rise, then the SOL ecosystem should prioritize attention on $JTO . The reasons to buy are:
1: TVL is a steady $2 billion
2: Fees over the past 7 days $4.45 million (annualized Fees $249 million)
3: 24h Revenue over $30,000, directly into the treasury + dividends for holders
The current price is only $0.57, market cap $227 million, FDV $565 million
This is a project with real revenue
{future}(JTOUSDT)
1: TVL is a steady $2 billion
2: Fees over the past 7 days $4.45 million (annualized Fees $249 million)
3: 24h Revenue over $30,000, directly into the treasury + dividends for holders
The current price is only $0.57, market cap $227 million, FDV $565 million
This is a project with real revenue
{future}(JTOUSDT)
For 23-25 years, the bull and bear markets have already reversed several times 😅. I really don't understand how so many people still believe in theories that have already been debunked, and then panic and throw away their own chips.
蟹老板的进击之路
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Will the market continue to decline? Where are the cyclical bottoms? Keep an eye on these signals!
In the end, Bitcoin did not hold the $90,000 position, but to be honest, that's not really a big deal. After so many years in the crypto world, my biggest feeling is that regardless of whether Bitcoin goes up or down, it always ends up being unexpected. So don't focus too much on past prices to bet on how the future will be; that way, it’s easy to suffer significant losses.
In January this year, Bitcoin dropped from $110,000 all the way down to $75,000, a decline of over 32%. This was even more than the drop from $126,000 to $89,000 this time. However, just a month later, it bounced back to $110,000 and even reached a new high. At that time, many people were calling the end of the bull market, and the market looked more like a bull market then, with many altcoins also rising. Some of those altcoins still haven't returned to the price levels they had when Bitcoin was at $75,000.
In January this year, Bitcoin dropped from $110,000 all the way down to $75,000, a decline of over 32%. This was even more than the drop from $126,000 to $89,000 this time. However, just a month later, it bounced back to $110,000 and even reached a new high. At that time, many people were calling the end of the bull market, and the market looked more like a bull market then, with many altcoins also rising. Some of those altcoins still haven't returned to the price levels they had when Bitcoin was at $75,000.
This round, I have always felt that the market's sentiment is very fragile. The decline feels completely driven by emotions, and I can't understand why the market is gradually becoming so sensitive. The plunge on 1011 is also inexplicable. In the past, major crashes were always linked to clear negative factors, such as FTX, Luna, or regulatory issues. However, there was no major negative factor on 1011. If we had to say that tariffs negatively impacted the market, it should have been immune by now, especially since April was already dark enough. Since 1011, the market has felt even more like a startled bird, overly sensitive like a cup bow and snake shadow. The moment someone mentions uncertainty about interest rate cuts in December, emotions explode. Coupled with the gloom of a four-year cycle, sentiment becomes even more collapsed. However, fundamentally, the sun still rises as usual. The Federal Reserve will still make changes by the end of the year, and AI will continue to develop. One can only say that Musk is indeed right; being pessimistic, even if correct, is meaningless. Only optimism can move us forward.
It is indeed like this, the market feels very weak now, like a glass heart. The previous bear markets had definite major negatives, but now there aren't any significant negatives, yet the panic is overwhelming. Is the sentiment so unstable now?
Since the black swan liquidation on October 11, the market has been in a state that seems to have serious problems.
But to this day, people still have not discovered the real issue.
Since that day, the market has been shrouded in some kind of shadow, and no one is willing to speak out loudly.
Now this place feels like a crime scene, but there is no body at the scene.
Everyone can feel the tragedy at the scene, yet no one knows who exactly has died.
Ironically, the market behaves as if the case has already been closed.
$ETH $SOL $PEPE
But to this day, people still have not discovered the real issue.
Since that day, the market has been shrouded in some kind of shadow, and no one is willing to speak out loudly.
Now this place feels like a crime scene, but there is no body at the scene.
Everyone can feel the tragedy at the scene, yet no one knows who exactly has died.
Ironically, the market behaves as if the case has already been closed.
$ETH $SOL $PEPE
Eigen really doesn't understand, the once-king project has now fallen below meme status.
K线人生飞哥
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Only 4 protocols in the DeFi field have a TVL exceeding $10 billion
They are:
$AAVE (approximately $31.06 billion)
$LDO (approximately $26.48 billion)
$EIGEN (approximately $12.66 billion)
Binance staked ETH (BETH) (approximately $10.85 billion)
In a bear market, it becomes clear who is the worthless coin and who is the valuable coin.
{spot}(EIGENUSDT)
{spot}(LDOUSDT)
{spot}(AAVEUSDT)
They are:
$AAVE (approximately $31.06 billion)
$LDO (approximately $26.48 billion)
$EIGEN (approximately $12.66 billion)
Binance staked ETH (BETH) (approximately $10.85 billion)
In a bear market, it becomes clear who is the worthless coin and who is the valuable coin.
{spot}(EIGENUSDT)
{spot}(LDOUSDT)
{spot}(AAVEUSDT)
Talk about my views
From last night's speech by Old Bao, it is undoubtedly a dovish signal. Therefore, the probability of a rate cut in September is currently very high, but we also need to be wary of the non-farm payroll and CPI data in August not having any black swan events. In the medium term, we can confirm the new chairperson by the end of the year, and it is basically certain that next year will be a year of easing. Under the prospect of ample macro liquidity, I believe that the core trend in the cryptocurrency space will inevitably return to fundamentals. Many people are currently looking forward to the altcoin season, which has been delayed mainly because on-chain activity remains too quiet, with no strong fundamental support. It mainly relies on sentiment to drive it. I believe that in the future, the macro impact will gradually weaken, and more reliance will be on whether blockchain can have new innovations and narratives; otherwise, it can only drive a few quality coins to break through, but cannot form a structural bull market.
But I can be sure that the current cyclical theory in the cryptocurrency space is gradually becoming ineffective. Discussing three years of bear and one year of bull, or entering a bear market in the second year after halving, these metaphysical theories of carving the boat to seek the sword no longer hold much significance, as the current variables are far more numerous than in previous cycles. Cryptocurrency stocks, ETFs, policies, etc., all exert considerable influence on the market.
Looking ahead, I hope that with the improvement of infrastructure, blockchain can truly enter the investment research cycle.
From last night's speech by Old Bao, it is undoubtedly a dovish signal. Therefore, the probability of a rate cut in September is currently very high, but we also need to be wary of the non-farm payroll and CPI data in August not having any black swan events. In the medium term, we can confirm the new chairperson by the end of the year, and it is basically certain that next year will be a year of easing. Under the prospect of ample macro liquidity, I believe that the core trend in the cryptocurrency space will inevitably return to fundamentals. Many people are currently looking forward to the altcoin season, which has been delayed mainly because on-chain activity remains too quiet, with no strong fundamental support. It mainly relies on sentiment to drive it. I believe that in the future, the macro impact will gradually weaken, and more reliance will be on whether blockchain can have new innovations and narratives; otherwise, it can only drive a few quality coins to break through, but cannot form a structural bull market.
But I can be sure that the current cyclical theory in the cryptocurrency space is gradually becoming ineffective. Discussing three years of bear and one year of bull, or entering a bear market in the second year after halving, these metaphysical theories of carving the boat to seek the sword no longer hold much significance, as the current variables are far more numerous than in previous cycles. Cryptocurrency stocks, ETFs, policies, etc., all exert considerable influence on the market.
Looking ahead, I hope that with the improvement of infrastructure, blockchain can truly enter the investment research cycle.
Today's recommendation, $SEI , sei's $64 million layout for desci, I personally believe it has found its own narrative in the blockchain, desci is currently in a very early stage, this sector certainly has potential, but it is relatively difficult to see great breakthroughs in the short term, therefore this is a long-term investment, the sei foundation's boldness to invest such a large amount of capital is commendable.
Sharing my views on altcoins, the current market chatter is that there are too many altcoins and that funds can't keep up. This claim is pure nonsense. It's important to know that the crypto world is completely different from the A-shares market. Stocks listed on A-shares must have funds to back them up, while the crypto market has a completely free economic system. The process of delisting a stock in A-shares is extremely long and difficult, while a cryptocurrency going to zero is quite simple. Therefore, having many cryptocurrencies does not mean that funds must be spread evenly; funds can choose for themselves, selecting the altcoins they truly believe have value. Furthermore, the role that altcoins play in the crypto market is significant. It's crucial to recognize that large institutions are only a small number, and their capital size dictates that they can only choose BTC. In contrast, a large number of whales, speculative funds, and retail investors heavily rely on the altcoin market. Thus, quality altcoins are the eternal theme of this space. Comparing BTC to state-owned enterprises, quality altcoins are like major private companies. The theme of a free economic market flourishing is eternal. There are significant risks here, but the returns are also high. Therefore, focusing on investment research, discovering quality altcoins, and holding them at low positions is definitely a path towards a positive spiral.
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