林听论币

2025/10/28

Short BTC115000-116000, target 108000, stop loss 118000

Reason for shorting:
1. Interest rate cuts are about to be realized; when positive news is realized, it often leads to negative outcomes, and it is highly likely to drop.

2. At the end of the month is Thanksgiving; during holidays, the market typically falls, along with the negative implications of the Japanese interest rate decision on 10.30.

3. Technical false breakout at 116000, standard bearish pattern; be aware of the formation of a secondary peak, breaking below the neckline, the bears will start to gain strength.

4. The time for the bottom formation is relatively short; any upward movement with low volume is likely a trap, and it will drop again #内容挖矿升级 .

The big event is coming! After BTC fails to break 116,000 three times, a major drop is inevitable!

1 BTC attempted to reach a peak of 116,000 for the second time without breaking it, and will test the bottom near 105,000 again; it has now entered a downtrend;

2 After dropping to around 105,000, it will rebound again to around 115,000, forming the third peak at 116,000;

3 If it fails to break 116,000 three times, there will be a significant drop below 100,000, testing the bottom near 90,000;

4 100,000 is likely not the bottom, and it may very well drop to around 90,000.

Long position 68000 took profit, cut 3500 points, 68400 continued to chase a long, Brother Lin is still Brother Dog, just look at this wave! #加密市场反弹

Not chasing the empty, short-term bottom rebound, holding the long position for 2000 points, whether Lin Ge is still Lin Dog will depend on this wave! #何时抄底？

From eighty thousand to sixty thousand, there is a continuous and rapid decline, and a quick rebound is inevitable.

Based on the current strong bullish momentum in the four-hour timeframe, it is highly likely that there will be a rebound to around seventy-four thousand! After the rebound, there will be another deep drop, falling to the market bottom, with a large number of users' positions being liquidated, and institutions facing a drastic upheaval.

At this stage, unity of knowledge and action is crucial; it's time to go long. This time, we will take a short-term long position in BTC, seeing if it can rebound above seventy thousand, with the first target price at sixty-eight thousand, and the second target price at seventy-four thousand.

The most desperate and terrifying crash in the market is about to come, but it will ultimately arrive! The true bottom for BTC is between thirty-eight thousand and forty thousand. #何时抄底？

Gold, 4700 take profit!

Trading like a dog! Fans of Old Lin deeply understand this! The big pie took 1700 points, the charm of trend trading! $BTC

There’s no bad news and the market still falls; this is the most terrifying situation! The bulls have no ability to resist, incompetent bulls!

After a week of decline, there hasn’t been a decent rebound; it’s simply outrageous! ETFs have been continuously offloading from last November until now, and institutional leaders have all fled, making it difficult to rally! Americans hit after Asians, then after Europeans, and by night, Americans continue to hit; this kind of gradual decline will certainly end with a significant drop!

Strong downward trend! Next, watch for $68,000! #小非农数据不及预期

During the day, there is a decrease in volume and an increase in price, while at night, there is a decline
Today has passed, but there is still worry about tomorrow. Tomorrow is Black Friday
Many large investors are reducing leverage, leading to selling pressure
There are too many large investors cutting losses in Ethereum
A slight increase will lead to selling, everyone is escaping
Btc70000 has also arrived, and the short signal is obvious
Every day is lower than the last, every day brings a new bottom, it can't be bought out
Pulling back to 74500 to stabilize before considering if the bulls are established #小非农数据不及预期

Short position, another 1300 points lost, every day around this time, funds are net outflowing. Then it rebounds a bit around 3-4 PM. The daily momentum of BTC is continuously strengthening, with only the barrier of 71000 left; if it breaks, we'll see the 60s! There is basically no strong support until 66000, it's like watching a plummet. As for Ethereum, it seems to be heading towards 1800! #美国政府部分停摆结束

This market is really as if going long is like being a dog, still need to short!
Currently, I have an additional short position: gold!
First, let's see gold drop to around 4700 #美国政府部分停摆结束

The resistance at the 80000 level for Bitcoin still exists in the short term, and selling on highs remains the only trading signal until a significant resistance is broken and a bullish structure is established, which would indicate a true reversal.

Trading idea: short around the 76500-77300 range, as the daily level has shown a two-stage decline. The 74500-72950 range is a potential reversal area where one can go long. #美国政府部分停摆结束 #美国政府部分停摆结束

The current market situation makes technical indicators insignificant in the face of negative information. The 4-hour golden cross quickly turned into a dead cross; going long is like being a dog, only shorting can make money.

Unless something unexpected happens, it won't go above 77000 today. The US-Iran standoff is heating up and it will continue to fall. After breaking below 74000, the nearest major support below is around 65000. #美国政府部分停摆结束

Bitcoin, from the perspective of bear market fluctuations, has now entered a mid-term phase.
Currently, about 50% of people are starting to look bearish.

From a technical standpoint, if it rebounds to around 84k this month, it will be a second confirmation of the neckline of the weekly head and shoulders structure. At that time, it will be the last attempt to lure buyers before it turns down again below 70000, at which point the majority (over 75%) will be bearish, focusing on one direction and staying still! #美国伊朗对峙

Give up all illusions, the rebound must be short-selling

It's come too fast! This drop is too brutal! Even I, a major bear, dare not chase the shorts all the way down; the bulls have basically been wiped out, and the sound of liquidations is rising and falling.

The two short positions with a volume of 4 already indicate that the bulls' desperate resistance is ultimately futile; the strength of the medium-term trend for bears will inevitably swallow a small number of bulls who are licking blood at the knife's edge.

Dropping to around 70,000 is already a done deal. If you don't believe it, let time provide the final answer. $BTC

BTC has been fluctuating in the range of 75,500-79,500 for two to three days, and it is highly likely to continue to decline and test the 70,000 mark.

The calm has returned; no one is dumping Bitcoin and Ethereum anymore, the selling pressure has vanished, and the manipulators have already cut their losses, so it’s time to pump the price. It is highly likely to fluctuate in the range of 75,500-79,500 for the next two to three days, and after that, it will continue to decline and test the 70,000 mark.

At this stage, the bullish momentum is very weak, with 80,000 having become a strong resistance area that is difficult to surpass; the order book shows very small buying amounts, and ETF institutions continue to experience net outflows. The so-called 1 billion buying BTC in batches from a certain exchange is just a drop in the bucket, more symbolic than substantial; short-term fluctuations cannot change the medium-term downtrend.
$BTC

Ethereum, the monthly K6 has continued to decline, and the downward trend is still ongoing; this overall direction has not changed.

After a previous round of continuous decline, there is indeed a demand for a rebound and repair in the short-term technical aspect; not rebounding would actually be unhealthy.

In a downward trend, the rebound is more of a chance for the market to "catch its breath", allowing indicators to repair and emotions to warm up, and also giving trapped funds an opportunity to change hands.

From the perspective of trend structure, as long as there is no clear mid-term structure reversal signal, the nature of this rebound still belongs to a technical pullback in a bear market, rather than the starting point of a new round of upward wave.

What truly determines the trend is not how much a rebound has pulled up, but whether it can stabilize at key structural positions after the rebound, and whether the trading volume can continue to keep up.~

Therefore, in the short term, there can be a repair trend, but in terms of direction, we still need to maintain respect for the downward trend, and not be misled by one or two bullish candles.

The current rebound is relatively weak. $BTC #爱泼斯坦案烧向币圈

A new week, BTC will continue to decline!

The bear market has arrived, BTC broke below 80,000 over the weekend! The downward trend is ongoing, first dropping to around 75,000, struggling for a bit, after a dying struggle, the next phase will drop to around 70,000, then there should be a rebound here, with a possible target price for the rebound being below 80,000, a dead cat bounce.

From a long-term perspective, the bottom of this bear market should be around 60,000, we'll see, don't easily try to catch the bottom, otherwise you might catch it on the edge of a knife, licking blood off the blade will not work, and you could end up with fractures. Also, the structure is not complete; personally, I suggest not chasing longs on a small rebound, as this is a high-risk move. I also suffered losses on this over the weekend.

Speaking of the technical aspect, on the weekly chart, unless there are unexpected events, it will close with a nearly bare-footed large bearish candlestick, with two consecutive weeks of bearish candlesticks. The C wave decline is ongoing; on the daily chart, there have been four consecutive days of bearish K lines, with the center of gravity moving down, and the downward trend still points downwards; on the four-hour chart, another bearish main volume appeared on Friday, approaching two-thirds of the bearish main volume at 1011, currently the bulls have lost their strength, 70,000 is not far away. $BTC $ETH

BTC broke below 80,000, and it will only be a matter of time before it rushes to 70,000!

1) Weekly: The downtrend is already evident, and a low-level MACD golden cross is unlikely; the C wave decline is in progress;
2) Daily: The 70-day rising channel's oscillation structure has broken below the lower boundary, and the downward continuation structure is undoubtedly present;
3) ETF: Last week continued to see a net outflow of $1.31 billion, and this week is highly likely to continue the net outflow;

Once the price completely breaks below 80,000, BTC will accelerate its decline towards 70,000, as there is no support here. It hasn't dropped this freely in a long time. Personally, I won't go long at this point; don't easily try to catch the bottom, as it hasn't dropped enough yet, and the risk of betting on a rebound outweighs the reward.

#贵金属巨震

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication. The trend market is here, and this wave has made a fortune! The C wave downtrend in the BTC weekly chart has begun. Yesterday, I repeatedly warned about breaking below 86k, then 83k. The real short position also changed from 90k to 80k, and breaking below 80k is just a matter of time.

Any rebound is just a pullback in the downtrend; the structure is not completed. Continue with short positions; this round of decline is far from over. Observe the structure, do not attempt to catch the bottom.

Every round of sharp decline will eliminate a group of people—those carried away by emotions, trapped by fantasies, and those unwilling to cut losses. The market does not need bravery; it only rewards those who survive. Take it slow, be steady; the next opportunity is reserved for those still in the game. #贵金属巨震