帕叔财经报

I just saw that my buddy has contributed 1.94 million dollars in fees to Hyperliquid. It would be great if he came to okx so we could compete in real-time and let him create a ghost light🧐. Then I could design a feature called reverse opening, which allows us to trade back with one click.
And giving him an okx SVIP client status is not too much to ask, really not too much.

However, it turns out that my brother lost 30 million dollars, so he wouldn't be short of that little bit, right?🤣
#美国初请失业金人数下降 #BTC行情 #Bitmine新增质押ETH $BTC $ETH $BNB

Today's market speaks for itself; Trump not only knows how to read candlestick charts, but also creates 'black swans' himself, leaving the global market in shambles. Even analysts are on the verge of collapse.
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🚨 Uncle Pa's News Overview 🚨

1. Major breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations: Iran agrees to most ceasefire requests, Asian stock markets plummet at opening ❎
Geopolitical risks are temporarily alleviated, but market risk aversion persists, with the Nikkei 225 down 2.51% and KOSPI down 4.77%.
2. Hundreds of U.S. special forces have arrived in the Middle East, negotiations run parallel to military pressure ❎
The timeline for a ceasefire remains uncertain under the “fighting while talking” approach, and energy supply risks have not been eliminated.
3. Asian stock markets suffer heavy losses: South Korea's KOSPI has dropped over 20% since before the conflict, with pressure on Samsung and SK Hynix ❎
The South Korean stock market has entered a technical bear market, with significant drag from tech stocks.
4. Commodity divergence: Gold fell 1% to $4,448, while crude oil rose over 1% ❎
Optimism from negotiations suppresses gold, but concerns over the Strait of Hormuz continue to support oil prices.
5. Walmart's OnePay adds over ten new tokens including SUI, Polygon, and Arbitrum ✅
The retail giant accelerates its crypto strategy, with the “super app” strategy benefiting the L2 ecosystem's popularity.
6. Aave governance deeply divided: ACI announces dissolution, internal power disputes escalate ❎
Governance turmoil in leading DeFi protocols could impact market confidence in the short term.
7. Whales buy 5,039 ETH (about $10 million), total holdings rise to 138,200 ✅
Large funds are entering around ETH $1,985, indicating long-term confidence.
8. BTC fluctuates sharply between $65,960 and $67,034, with MVRV dropping to 0.77 ❎
Short-term holders face an average unrealized loss of over 23%, and market structure remains weak.

Overall assessment: Geopolitical news of “fighting while talking” + sharp decline in Asian stock markets + weak indicators on crypto chains + coexistence of whale buying and governance division → bearish volatility ❎

$BTC $ETH $BNB #美国“无王”抗议 #比特币ETF价格战 #全球市场波动 #摩根士丹利比特币现货ETF #特朗普再挺比特币

Uncle Pa's Daily | March 30

Middle East Situation · Crypto Quick Review

【Qualitative】: Bearish ❎
【Logic】: Large-scale airstrikes + Blockade of shipping lanes + Hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve

1. Iran's Call
- Event: The Iranian Speaker stated that the pre-market news is a “profit-taking trap,” urging everyone to do the opposite.
- Interpretation: Pure rhetoric interference, ineffective in the face of real battle ❎

2. Escalation of Conflict
- Event: Israeli military dropped over 120 munitions on weapon production lines; Iran retaliated, claiming it would strike at the residences of U.S. and Israeli “military and political personnel.”
- Interpretation: Nature of the conflict has fundamentally changed, personal threats heighten the war premium ❎

3. Hormuz in Crisis
- Event: The number of passing vessels plummeted from 138 to 11.
- Interpretation: Energy artery comes to a halt, inflation expectations soar ❎

4. Federal Reserve Personnel
- Event: The confirmation hearing for Waller as Chair of the Federal Reserve may take place in April.
- Interpretation: Expectations of a hawkish return, bearish for liquidity ❎

【Strategy】
Short BTC at highs in the short term or wait and see, strictly control leverage
$BTC $ETH $BNB #美国“无王”抗议 #比特币ETF价格战 #全球市场波动 #特朗普再挺比特币 #BTC行情

🚨Warning🚨

This round of decline is not what you expected.

First, let's look at the market: Bitcoin at 66,000, 2000, liquidations keep coming.

But there are a few news items today that are more interesting than the candlestick charts:

Oil and gas ETFs, crude oil funds, and silver LOFs have all issued premium risk warnings, some even suspending trading.

What does this mean? Retail investors are frantically chasing high prices in oil and gas and silver, and fund companies are seeing this and warning: Don't buy, the premiums are too high, you'll just be taking over the losses.

On the other hand, what's the situation in the Middle East?

Israel bombed Iranian oil storage facilities, and Iran says nearly 10,000 civilian facilities were damaged. The Iranian expert council appointed a new Supreme Leader, and the Israeli military vowed to continue hunting down every successor. Russia expressed support for Tehran. The US military has internally discussed "seizing Iranian crude oil export terminals." Saudi Aramco's stock price surged 4.3%. South Korea is considering setting a cap on oil prices.

Let's look at it differently:

The market is currently playing out two dramas:

Drama 1: Retail investors are chasing oil, gas, and silver, thinking they can profit from the war.

Drama 2: Institutions are issuing announcements and suspending trading, warning you not to get carried away.

Do you understand? The information gap is here:

Retail investors see, "There's a war, oil prices are going to rise, buy oil and gas now!" Institutions see, "The premium is too high, those who buy now are just easy targets."

The same news can be seen as an opportunity by some and a risk by others. Who's right and who's wrong? We'll know in a few days by watching the oil price trend.

For the cryptocurrency market:

This drop also saw retail investors selling—short-term holders dumped nearly 30,000 Bitcoins. Meanwhile, seasoned investors who have held for over six months have barely moved.

In terms of strategy:

Don't follow the news. By the time the news comes out, the premium has already been fully realized. If you want to buy at the bottom, buy in batches, don't go all in at once.

$BTC $ETH $BNB #亚洲股市暴跌 #伊朗新领袖 #Web4.0成新叙事？ #加密市场回调 #山寨季讨论量跌至两年新低

🚨Alarm🚨
Today we won't discuss candlesticks, let's talk about something different.

First, let's look at the market: Bitcoin at 66,000, Ethereum at 2,000. The Asia-Pacific stock market has collapsed—Australia evaporated 80 billion, while Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines all fell. Oil prices have gone crazy, WTI surged 22% to break 110, Brent crude at 108.

But what’s most worth watching today are not these numbers.

Two pieces of news to consider together:

First: An Iranian expert meeting has decided on a new Supreme Leader, and Israel declared "to hunt down every successor." Oil prices soared, the stock market crashed, and Wall Street strategists raised the probability of a crash to 35%.

Second: The National People's Congress Standing Committee report—this year will formulate a financial law, a financial stability law, and amend the People's Bank Law and the Banking Supervision and Administration Law.

What does this mean?

On one side is panic, on the other side is a system.

In the Middle East, capital is fleeing, betting, and withdrawing liquidity. Here, the country is building firewalls, establishing a legal system, and bringing all financial activities under regulation.

For the cryptocurrency world, short-term it’s still a bloodletting situation—Asia-Pacific stock market circuit breakers triggered, institutions are selling Bitcoin for cash first. But in the long run, there’s a trend that is becoming increasingly clear:

The world is splitting.

Some markets are at war, where the rules are dictated by missiles; some markets are legislating, where the rules are dictated by law. Bitcoin is caught in the middle, following panic in the short term, but in the long term, who will it follow?

Back to operations: Don’t use leverage, don’t chase oil and gas (funds have already issued premium warnings, chasing in means taking the bag), and even if 65,000 breaks, don’t panic and cut losses.

Final sentence: Those in panic only care about running, while the smart ones are seeing the big picture.
$BTC $ETH $BNB #亚洲股市暴跌 #伊朗新领袖 #加密市场回调 #山寨季讨论量跌至两年新低

🚨Alarm🚨

$385 million bet on crude oil: Why is no one betting on Bitcoin anymore?

I just saw a piece of data that’s quite interesting:

In the past 24 hours, crude oil contracts on Hyperliquid reached a transaction volume of $385 million, ranking third on the platform, just behind Bitcoin and Ethereum. The combined volume of gold and silver is also nearly $300 million.

Here’s the question: In the past, when wars broke out, the first reaction was to buy Bitcoin for hedging. Now, during wars, large funds are going on-chain to bet on oil prices, gold, and silver.

Why?

Let’s say something different:

It’s not because Bitcoin is failing; it’s because the tools have increased.

In the past, if you wanted to bet on oil prices, you had to open a traditional futures account, which is cumbersome. Now on Hyperliquid, just a few clicks, and you can trade crude oil perpetual contracts directly, entering and exiting at any time, more flexibly than in traditional markets.

More importantly, the biggest variable in this Middle Eastern situation is oil prices—if the Strait of Hormuz gets blocked, 20% of the world’s crude oil can't be exported. Does Bitcoin have anything to do with this? Not really. But the rise and fall of oil prices are directly linked to everyone's living costs.

So the flow of funds is clear:

· Want to bet on geopolitical issues → buy crude oil contracts
· Want to hedge → buy gold and silver
· Want to bet on tech stocks → buy NASDAQ derivatives
· Betting on Bitcoin’s rise and fall? That’s another logic line.

Core insight:

In the past, everyone came to the crypto space with only one target—Bitcoin. That’s not the case anymore. Crypto platforms have turned into a comprehensive casino: whatever you want to bet on, it’s all there.

This explains why crude oil contracts can reach $385 million: it’s not that people have stopped betting; they are just not only betting on Bitcoin anymore.

An analyst pointed out correctly: crypto-native traders want to bet on everything on a familiar platform and don’t want to leave this ecosystem. Platforms like Hyperliquid perfectly meet that demand—silver contracts have accumulated over $28 billion, and crude oil has done nearly $400 million in just two months.

Final sentence:

The narrative in the crypto space used to be 'Bitcoin replaces everything,' but now it’s 'crypto platforms replace traditional casinos.'

$BTC $ETH $BNB #亚洲股市暴跌 #伊朗新领袖 #国际油价突破100美元 #Web4.0成新叙事？ #特朗普新版美国网络战略文件

🚨Alarm🚨

Work Summary: Oil prices are crazy, the crypto circle is being drained.

Today's market can be summed up in one sentence: The Middle East is exploding, Asia-Pacific is collapsing, and the crypto circle is swaying.

Oil price WTI hit 110, Brent hit 108. The Asia-Pacific stock market collectively plummeted—Australia evaporated 80 billion, Nikkei dropped 7%, Hang Seng fell 3%.

But there’s a strange thing: Gold hasn’t risen much, struggling to stay above 5000.

Why? Institutions say the dollar has siphoned off safe-haven funds. As oil prices rise, inflation won't come down, and the Federal Reserve can't cut interest rates, which drains gold's appeal compared to the dollar.

On the domestic front, the National People's Congress says it will formulate financial laws and financial stability laws. The meaning is very clear: build a firewall, no matter how chaotic it is outside, the inside cannot go crazy.

For the crypto circle, the short-term fate is still being drained—Asia-Pacific circuit breaker, institutions are first selling Bitcoin for cash.

But there’s a piece of on-chain data worth noting: crude oil contracts traded 385 million USD in 24 hours, ranking third on the platform. Gold and silver combined are also close to 300 million.

What does this indicate? Large funds haven't run away; they’ve just switched places to gamble—betting on oil prices, betting on geopolitics, not on Bitcoin.

In terms of operations: Don’t chase oil and gas ETFs, the premium is ridiculously high, going in is just picking up the tab. If 65,000 breaks, don’t panic and cut, wait for others to rush first.

$BTC $ETH $BNB #亚洲股市暴跌 #伊朗新领袖 #Web4.0成新叙事？ #加密市场回调

Iran is about to change its supreme leader, what is the big pancake waiting for?

First, the market report: Bitcoin 66,000, the second pancake 2,000, liquidation continues.

But today this news is ten thousand times more important than the K-line:

The Iranian expert meeting has made the final decision on the new supreme leader candidate.

What does this mean? Khamenei is 85, and the successor is set. This is not a change of president, but a change of spiritual leader. In the past 46 years, Iran has only changed its supreme leader once. After Khomeini's death in 1989, Khamenei took power, and how the Middle East script was written—you can look up the history yourself.

Let's look at a few more points:

Israel is bombing Iranian oil facilities, the Tehran refinery is smoking. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard says: ready for six months of high-intensity warfare, new missiles will be used next. US military personnel died while supporting operations in Kuwait. Bahrain University was bombed, and there were injuries. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs reminds Chinese travelers to evacuate quickly.

Let's say something different:

During the previous rounds of decline, the market was betting on 'localized conflicts'. Now the question has changed: with the new leader in power, will it be war or peace?

No one knows the answer. But what the capital market fears most is 'not knowing'.

Iran claims it can fight for half a year, Israel continues to bomb oil depots, Trump is saying 'no ground troops', while being reported to have alternatives for 'special forces to destroy nuclear facilities'. Saudi Arabia warns Iran: if you get hit again, fight back.

This is not something that can be resolved in a week; this is heading towards long-term.

Impact on the cryptocurrency circle:

In the short term, it’s still about liquidity—war costs money, first sell the big pancake.

But there is a detail worth pondering: Iran has a new leader, policies may change, or they may not. What changes is the tactics, what remains unchanged is the anti-American stance. This kind of 'certain uncertainty' may actually allow Bitcoin's 'digital gold' narrative to gradually take hold—provided that you can withstand this wave of panic.

In terms of operations:

Don’t try to catch the bottom, don’t catch flying knives. If 65,000 breaks, then look at 60,000. Those wanting to catch the bottom should wait for two things: first, the new leader's statement (war or peace), second, that oil prices don’t rise.

Last sentence: Changing leaders is something that happens once every 46 years. Why panic?
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The big pie continues to soften, the second pie is still holding up, how many episodes has the Middle East script reached?

First, let's look at the market: Bitcoin has fallen below 67,000, and in the last 24 hours, more than 300 million has been exploded again. The second pie is still hovering around 2,000, neither falling nor rising.

Next, looking at the news, it has been trending again these days:

Trump has established a new military alliance to eliminate drug trafficking groups, and has specifically mentioned focusing on El Salvador—what's the connection between these two and the crypto world? El Salvador is the country that legalized Bitcoin, those who know, know.

It's even more lively on the Iranian side: the Revolutionary Guard said, "The opportunity to eliminate Israel has emerged," and the parliament said, "Revenge will continue." The British aircraft carrier is also heading towards the Middle East.

The most outrageous is this: Iran has called on the U.S. Navy for escort, saying, "We are waiting for you." The Strait of Hormuz is basically out of commission now, with 20% of the world's crude oil unable to be transported. Oil prices could spike at any time.

What impact does this have on the crypto world?

In the short term, the more chaotic the Middle East, the more timid the funds. The big pie is being treated as an ATM withdrawing liquidity, this is an old script.

But in the long term, with inflation not coming down, fiat currency becoming worthless, the logic of Bitcoin's "limited supply" becomes even stronger. After this wave of decline, some are cutting losses, while others are secretly accumulating.

What to do now?

Don't leverage. 65,000 is a technical support level, if it can't hold, don't panic and cut losses. If you have bullets in hand, buy some spot gradually, don't go all in at once.

Last sentence: Cutting losses in panic, and after cutting, it will pump—hasn't this plot played out again?
$BTC $ETH $BNB #加密市场回调 #中东局势升级 #山寨季讨论量跌至两年新低

Ice and fire intertwine:
The price of Bitcoin remains at a high of $90,000, while the market has plunged into the abyss of "extreme fear"

· Price and sentiment diverge sharply: Bitcoin's price holds steady around its historical high of $92,000, but the fear and greed index reached its lowest point since March 2020.
· Institutional and retail behavior diverges: The U.S. Bitcoin ETF saw a massive single-day net outflow in November, while super whales increased their holdings against the trend during the decline. The market shows typical signs of "reallocation of chips."
· Macroeconomic factors dominate: The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy has become the key "dealer," and the cooling of interest rate cut expectations directly suppresses the valuation of high-elasticity risk assets like Bitcoin.

In simple terms, this is a high-level fluctuation under the shadow of macroeconomic factors, and the market structure is transitioning from retail sentiment-driven to a more complex institutional game phase $BTC
Retweet and @帕叔财经报 + comment to draw ten people to give away 9.9u

The current cryptocurrency is closely linked with the macro economy. Bitcoin hovers around 8.
90,000, with thin liquidity and cautious trends. The macro environment faces a complex situation intertwined with multiple themes such as slowing growth, scrutiny of the dollar's credit, fragmentation of global trade, and AI-driven growth. The market seeks new anchor points amid uncertainty. #美联储回购协议计划 #比特币与黄金战争 #美SEC和CFTC加密监管合作 $BTC

As a market watcher, I hope to give everyone a small prophecy: three times the return within a week. Let's get started #比特币与黄金战争 #美股2026预测 #代币化热潮