解夫BTC

$DOGE 哈哈哈形象生动

$BTC Bitcoin long positions, all fully executed. Take profit and exit. Next, look for opportunities to go short.

$ETH give the air force a bit of confidence, bearish.

$APT Although compared with other APT it is a bit trash, but in the end Hi has made a breakthrough. A breakthrough means going higher.

The long positions entered early; it's already up to 10%.

$AKE Do you still remember the dream from back then...

Haha, I only just said yesterday that I should give the Air Force some confidence, and today it’s already starting to take effect. On the daily line, looking at the bigger picture, it’s definitely not very realistic for a bullish trend.

The whole market is bullish—so I’m here to give the air force some confidence.

The only indicator I use is currently that USDT.D has reached this level. If it rebounds from here, then the crypto market will start another round of pullback and decline.

$APT finally broke through. This position hasn't dropped back before, and everyone is bullish. The 3x leverage is already on board; currently I'm up 10%. Rolling over the positions slowly and adding in—aiming to take a big bite. See if we can hit a7

$BTC Bitcoin is also in place. First take profit on half of this, and let the remaining part run with the profits; once it breaks through, buy back

$XAU follows the script

$MINIMAX minimax says the previous rally was because Huang Guo short drama, haha. It’s up again at this point. Still bearish though—this is a great spot for a breakdown and then shorting after the fall

$APT has returned to apt. Finally we’re at the position. After this breakout, if we jump over it, we’ll see higher levels. Move the head warehouse slightly forward; once it breaks out, add to the position. If it falls back, stop-loss.

The base is consolidating for more than three months now—hope it breaks through smoothly. I guess a lot of people got stuck at around 7 or 8 yuan with apt, right?

$ZEC September 14 bullish zec, the chart is unchanged, the price changed.

$BTC

$MARSCOIN finally boarded, then continued to take it higher, looking at the previous high. At least a double-digit gain

$XAU followed the script.

#美联储加息是否已成定局

I think: A 25-basis-point rate hike can serve as a high-probability scenario in the current context, but we still can’t directly say it’s a foregone conclusion. What’s more worth focusing on is whether this hike is a one-off move or whether it reopens the path for a series of consecutive hikes.

Based on the data already released, the Fed does have reasons to continue tightening policy.

In August, the U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year. Core CPI rose 0.3% month over month and 2.4% year over year. Among the components, gasoline prices rose 3.9% month over month, contributing more than one-third of the overall increase. On employment, nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs in August, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, and average hourly earnings grew 3.1% year over year. Inflation is still above the 2% target, and employment hasn’t shown any clear signs of stalling.

Even more noteworthy is that at the July FOMC meeting, the federal funds rate was maintained at 3.50%–3.75%, but the vote was 9 to 3, with three members already leaning toward a 25-basis-point hike. This suggests that hawkish pressure within the committee is not small.

However, the market’s positioning is about probability, not outcomes. Even if this hike really happens, if the statement and the dot plot release signals that this is a one-time adjustment, BTC and tech stocks may not necessarily keep falling. Conversely, even if there’s no hike for now, as long as Powell’s remarks are hawkish enough, risk assets could still face pressure.

My focus is on:

BTC: Before the event, avoid high leverage and chasing with full positions. Pay close attention to the U.S. dollar, real yields, and the guidance after the meeting.

Tech stocks: They’re more sensitive to interest rates and valuations. You can’t just look at index up/down moves; you also need to see whether earnings and cash flow can support valuations.

Gold: Rate hikes typically raise real yields and suppress gold prices, but inflation, geopolitical risks, and safe-haven demand could create an offset.

Overall positioning: Keep cash and flexibility, which matters more than betting on a single “data-driven” move. Wait until the statement, dot plot, and press conference information are complete before judging whether there’s a trend change.

So, my current baseline view is: expectations for a single 25-basis-point hike may already have been partially priced in by the market, but “consecutive hikes” have not been fully locked in by the data.

Do you think this will be a one-off hike, or the start of a new cycle of rate increases? If the hike is carried out, among BTC, tech stocks, and gold, which one do you expect to see the biggest volatility?

$ETH What can you even say about this? Keep looking bearish. This round of volatility has fully soaked it up.

$ETH slowly add the profits in, roll the position and see if we can do something big. Now we’re just waiting for a big crash.

$ZHIPU I’m not trying to put Zhipu down—I mean, I’m definitely a heavy user of AI.

The models from Zhipu are way too expensive—so overpriced. For the same cost-effectiveness, I can buy 20x Claude and use it to my heart’s content for a whole month. With Zhipu at the same price, it’s basically gone in half a day.

But then again, I didn’t buy it in the end—I didn’t get a deal when my order was queued.