The premise of making money is to not rush into it, and the premise of playing games is to not rush into fighting and killing.
Have you ever thought about why some people lose money the more they start businesses, and the more they hustle, the poorer they become? The answer is simple: one word: impatience.
Impatience leads to skipping the most crucial step: understanding the rules.
Making money is the same; when you enter any industry, the first thing is not to study how to make money, but to study the game rules of that industry.
If you are a newcomer to the cryptocurrency world, don’t rush to take action; give yourself one to three months to do one thing: clarify three questions: First, how does money flow; where does the money come from and where does it go, Second, what do the people who make money do right; who is making money and on what basis, Third, what pitfalls have the people who lose money encountered? What invisible traps are there?
Once you understand these three questions, you will find that some cryptocurrencies don't even need to be looked at, and some pitfalls don’t need to be stepped into. Otherwise, you won’t even know whether there’s a treasure chest or a trap behind the door, yet you dare to rush in.
Too many people skip this step and directly enter the state of wanting to get rich quickly. Those who can really make money have an entirely opposite order of doing things compared to you. Ordinary people see opportunities, rush in, learn while doing, and when they realize something is wrong, they lose money and exit. Experts see opportunities and spend one to three months specifically studying the rules.
$BTC $ETH
So: What was the biggest pitfall you encountered because of being too impatient? Share it in the comments to remind everyone.
Three Scenarios for the Strait of Hormuz and Investment Strategies
The biggest concern in the current market is not the short-term ceasefire news, but rather the ongoing restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz that have caused energy, insurance, and freight costs to be 'stuck' at high levels. Long-term high oil prices will translate into inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve and global central banks to maintain tight policies (making it difficult to cut interest rates and even possibly raising them), thereby suppressing overvalued sectors. The future market trend depends on the evolution of geopolitics, focusing on four core variables: The actual passage situation in the Strait of Hormuz, The substantive decline in oil prices, Changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, The transmission of price increases in the agricultural industry chain.
4.12 📉 Surviving the Bear Market in the Crypto World, Check-in Day 3:
In the next week or two, fake news about the US-Iran negotiations will be rampant. These players will take advantage of information asymmetry and the rapid fluctuations in the market to reap profits from retail investors. The market trend is likely to experience a 180-degree reversal. Retail investors will be repeatedly harvested up and down, as we are at the end of the news cycle.
So I suggest everyone to restrain their hands and refrain from rashly entering the market for the time being.
As for the news, you can only see various big headlines, but they actually have no practical significance. The key is to rely on logical analysis and focus on what is actually happening, rather than the verbal statements from all parties, while also providing multi-dimensional verification for all information.
In the short term, the information released by all parties will most likely claim that they have “won,” but the real victory or defeat lies in the details, which is the actual benefits paid by each party to achieve the results mentioned in the headlines.
For example, what are the navigation rules, controlling entities, and passage conditions behind the free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz; what are the timelines and additional conditions behind the US agreeing to unfreeze relevant Iranian assets.
Just looking at headlines like “Agreement to Lift Sanctions” cannot determine who the real winner is; all topics such as uranium enrichment, nuclear issues, and political compensation are the same.
It is highly likely that in the end, the negotiating parties will all claim victory, but the ones who truly pay the price are the ordinary information onlookers. $BTC $ETH
When will the next wave of financial harvesting come? #FinancialCrisis, $btc 📉
1. Streamlined version diagram
$BTC $BNB 2. Detailed analysis version As everyone focuses on the Middle East's gunfire, a more covert global financial harvesting is unfolding. Signals that typically appear on the eve of multiple crises are becoming concentrated and continually strengthening. The transmission chain of the 2008 financial crisis is re-emerging with striking similarity. The systemic risk of the world's largest economy will affect the savings, investments, and mortgages of every ordinary person. Step one, underlying risks have been exposed. The CMBS default rate for U.S. office buildings has reached 12.34%, surpassing the peak of the 2008 financial crisis. The default rates for high-risk loans and software sector loans are also far above normal levels. BlackRock and Blackstone have triggered redemption restrictions one after another, with extremely low payout ratios, indicating that the foundation of the U.S. financial system is weakening. The real core risks are the two hidden dangers of U.S. Treasuries and U.S. stocks: the total amount of U.S. debt has exceeded $39 trillion, with uncontrolled growth, interest expenses surpassing defense budgets, and the yield curve on U.S. debt hitting the longest record of inversion in history. In the past two years, global central banks have collectively sold over a trillion dollars in U.S. Treasuries, with an additional reduction of $82 billion expected in the first six weeks of February 2026. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks have defied economic laws, with the S&P 500 setting new highs repeatedly, price-to-earnings ratios at historical highs, index structures distorted, and retail leverage hitting new highs. Top investors like Rogers and Buffett have significantly withdrawn or shorted U.S. stocks.
In the end, there are actually three things left in trading:
First, only trade strong assets; only in places with large fluctuations can you have the opportunity and space to save your time costs.
Second, only trade within the model; filter using trends, positions, and pattern conditions one by one, eliminating all that do not match, what remains is what you should wait for.
Third, only trust the prices on the market; other people's opinions and all the news, just listen and don't take it to heart. You are always waiting for that opportunity to appear, and it's enough to go in with a stop loss and take a chance.
Every day is just waiting for that one opportunity filtered out by the three screens. Outsiders may think it looks very boring, but personally, I find it simple and solid.
Remember, there are always opportunities in the market; you shouldn't try to earn every penny in the entire market, but only earn what you can. If you can't grasp an opportunity, missing it is just missing it; it was never meant to be your wealth.
Why can't oil prices go up since the Strait of Hormuz hasn't opened? Perhaps there is something terrifying inside!
After the ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz has not opened, leading to severe supply disruptions, but oil prices have not fully rebounded, and even long-term contracts are still declining, which may indicate the most core and unsettling truth of the current market.
Futures down ≈ recession ≈ stock market crash: the only coherent logic in the current market, and also the most dangerous truth. The current global financial market is exhibiting an extremely fragmented pricing structure: Brent crude oil spot prices have reached as high as $124 per barrel, while June futures contracts are only about $94, resulting in an extreme price difference of up to $30. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index is just one step away from its historical high, and the Nasdaq has basically recovered all losses since the outbreak of war.
📉 Surviving the bear market in cryptocurrency, check-in day 1: The bear market has lasted for several months, and every turnaround during this bear market, $BTC , inevitably triggers feelings of FOMO because of the fear of missing out. The fear of not buying at the low point and then missing the price surge.
FOMO (fear of missing out), in the age of active social media and information overload, causes people to feel anxious about missing events, opportunities, or social interactions, manifesting as continuous attention to others' dynamics, difficulty concentrating on the present, and hesitation in decision-making.
At this time, cultivating the right mindset is paramount.
In contrast to FOMO, JOMO (joy of missing out) is about enjoying the freedom of missing out and turning attention to inner satisfaction, which is the first step in cultivation. $BNB
Buffett is running, why do you think you can withstand it? #Buffett Index, #btc bear market
Buffett sold 174 billion in stocks and holds 400 billion in cash. The valuation indicator he personally invented surged to 224%, which is 30 points higher than before the 2000 internet bubble. That bubble burst and evaporated 78%.
1. What is the Buffett Indicator The formula for the Buffett Indicator is very simple: total market value per share divided by US GDP. Buffett said in 2001 that 75%~90% is a reasonable range, and exceeding 120% is dangerous. And now it is 224%, meaning that the total value of the US stock market is 2.24 times the total output of the US economy.
2. Historical Guidance of the Buffett Indicator Looking at historical data, during the economic recession in 1982, it was only 32%, which was a historical bottom.
What did Trump actually say, and why did BTC plummet?
On April 1 at 9 PM Eastern Time, which is 9 AM Beijing Time on April 2, Trump delivered a nearly 20-minute nationwide speech from the White House.
You should know that when the President of the United States addresses the nation on television, it is usually during a time of great trouble, disaster, or to announce some important policy, or when preparing to take military action abroad. Since television entered ordinary households in 1947, every U.S. President has made such national addresses, not counting the annual State of the Union address, totaling about two hundred times. Notable speeches include the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis address, the 2001 speech by George W. Bush following the September 11 attacks, and the 2003 address announcing the war against Iraq.
An unprecedented capital retreat is quietly unfolding on a global scale. In the month of March 2026, the flow of global capital underwent drastic changes, with even the most stable capital giants collectively withdrawing. What does this mean, and will it replay the global financial crisis of 2008?
Let me share two of the most significant signals. Firstly, in March 2026, there was a significant net outflow from global equity funds, with the speed of capital withdrawal reaching an unprecedented historical level. Secondly, Bloomberg's data shows that from the end of February 2026 to March 27, foreign capital saw a net outflow of about $52 billion from emerging markets in Asia excluding China, setting the record for the most intense capital flight since the financial crisis of 2009. This scale is nearly 1.5 times that of the pandemic shock period in 2020 and more than double that during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022.
BTC declines, mining companies have betrayed first
Due to the continued low profitability of Bitcoin mining, mining companies are under significant cash pressure, accelerating their departure from traditional mining and raising funds by selling Bitcoin reserves, while speeding up their transformation towards AI businesses in search of new ways to survive.
AI business has become a must for BTC mining companies, rather than an option.
Data shows: 1. MARA massively sold Bitcoin: sold 15,133 Bitcoins between March 4 and 25, 2026, generating approximately $1.1 billion to strengthen its balance sheet and expand into the AI/HPC field.
2. Mining industry's profitability challenges are severe: in Q1 2026, hash prices fell to $28-30/PH/s/day, hitting a new low since the halving; weighted average cash costs reached approximately $80,000 per Bitcoin in Q4 2025; about 15-20% of global mining machines are operating at a loss.
3. Miners face significant selling pressure: over the past year, miners have essentially sold all newly produced Bitcoins (about 164,000 coins).
4. MARA accelerates AI layout: in collaboration with Starwood Capital Group, transforming Bitcoin mining sites into AI data centers; CEO Fred Thiel plans for 50% of revenue to come from non-Bitcoin mining businesses within four years.
5. Industry transformation trend: large mining companies including MARA, Bitdeer, and Core Scientific are promoting AI infrastructure businesses; publicly listed mining companies have cumulatively announced over $70 billion in AI/HPC contracts; by the end of 2026, up to 70% of revenue for listed mining companies may come from AI.
6. Valuation differentiation: mining companies that obtain HPC contracts have an EV/NTM revenue multiple of 12.3 times, while pure mining companies are at 5.9 times.
Bitcoin mining companies are accelerating their departure from traditional mining, with AI business having upgraded from a "contingency plan" to a "matter of life and death".
Bitcoin mining companies are accelerating their departure from traditional mining, with the transition to AI business having upgraded from a "contingency plan" to a "matter of life and death". This trend is evidenced by the large-scale sell-off of Bitcoin by leading listed mining company MARA to cash out for the expansion of its AI business. 1. MARA has massively sold off Bitcoin: From March 4 to 25, 2026, MARA sold a total of 15,133 Bitcoins, cashing out approximately $1.1 billion. The funds will be used to strengthen the balance sheet and expand into the fields of digital energy and AI/HPC (High-Performance Computing). 2. The profitability of the mining industry continues to deteriorate:
With a single command from Iran, BTC plummeted to 66,000 in half an hour.
On March 27, news reported by Iranian media: The Iranian Revolutionary Guard stated that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, and any passage through this waterway will face "severe measures". All vessels "traveling to and from ports of hostile allies and supporters of the U.S. and Israel" are prohibited from passing through any waterways or heading to any destinations. Previously, Iranian media reported that three container ships of different nationalities were forced to turn back from the Strait of Hormuz after warnings from the Iranian Navy.
How can one not care about others' opinions? Don't take sweet words seriously, and don't take harsh words to heart. The good and bad you have in others' mouths is actually only related to their own interests. Don't be elated by external things, and don't be saddened by yourself; knowing my faults is like the Spring and Autumn Annals. What do you think?
1. “Don't take sweet words seriously, and don't take harsh words to heart” Most people can't achieve this because, subconsciously, they regard “others' evaluations” as a measure of “self-worth.” It’s important to realize that evaluations are often projections of the other party's interests and emotions, unrelated to your intrinsic value. Just because you're good doesn't mean you're truly good; just because you're bad doesn't mean you're truly bad.
2. “Don't be elated by external things, and don't be saddened by yourself” is a state, and also a method. This phrase is often misunderstood as “indifference,” but it actually establishes a stable internal evaluation system—my good and bad do not depend on external praise or criticism, but on whether I act according to my own standards.
To achieve this, try redefining “others' opinions” from “judgment against me” to “information about the other party”—if they praise me, it means I have touched their interests or aesthetics; if they criticize me, it means I have offended their position or understanding. These are pieces of information about them, not conclusions about me.
3. “Knowing my faults is like the Spring and Autumn Annals” is the most difficult layer. The real weight of this phrase lies in its premise—that as long as you are doing things and living according to your own will, you will inevitably be misunderstood and criticized. This is not because you are not good enough, but because everyone's positions and perspectives are inherently different.
When Confucius said this, he was aware that some people would curse him, but he chose to let a longer time scale make the judgment. This kind of “not caring” is not about putting on a brave face; rather, it is about reclaiming the authority of evaluation from the “voices around” to the “standards I recognize.”
If you can truly achieve these three points, then there is no problem of “how to not care”—because you have already established a self-consistent coordinate system that does not rely on external feedback. Allow yourself to occasionally still care. We are all social animals; it is instinctive to feel emotional fluctuations when hearing criticism. The real “not caring” is not the absence of fluctuations, but the ability to return to your own path after the fluctuations.
#sign地缘政治基建 $SIGN The core development value lies in being an ordinary blockchain signature tool.
Trade requires patience. The 2026 global financial crisis is approaching; patiently wait for the black swan.
Against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the performance of Sign tokens (SIGN) has recently attracted widespread attention in the market. Its core development value lies in transforming from an ordinary blockchain signature tool to a "digital infrastructure" and "risk resistance tool" serving sovereign countries. Based on current use cases and strategic layout, its future growth potential is closely linked to the digitalization process of sovereign countries and geopolitical risks.
"Energy War" Analysis of the Impact on Various Asset Price Trends
Yesterday, the US and Israel bombed Iran's largest gas field, which is located at the border between Iran and Qatar in the Persian Gulf. The part within Iranian waters is called 'South Pars', which is part of a giant gas field system that includes Qatar's 'North Field'. The total area of the gas field is about 9,700 square kilometers, with about 3,700 square kilometers on the Iranian side; the total recoverable natural gas reserves are about 51 trillion cubic meters. This gas field is shared between Iran and Qatar beneath the sea, divided by the border line, with Iran occupying 1/3 and Qatar 2/3. This gas field supplies 70% of Iran's domestic natural gas, and 80% of electricity generation in Iran relies on natural gas. For Iran, this gas field is mainly for domestic consumption, although a very small portion is exported to Turkey and Iraq. For Qatar, it has become an important source of LNG for many countries worldwide, primarily supplying Asia and Europe, including Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as European countries like France, Italy, Belgium, the UK, Germany, and so on.
Quarterly Options Expiry: One of the core influencing factors for the current fluctuations of BTC and ETH
This Friday, the crypto market will encounter a key node, which is the quarterly options expiry, and this will directly affect the short-term trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum. 1. What is quarterly options expiry First, let's explain what quarterly options expiry is. Its maximum pain point price is the price that causes the most options buyers to lose money and the most sellers to make money. The market often pulls the price toward this point, getting close to this price, rendering most of the options worthless. The pain point price data for Bitcoin and Ethereum options has now been released. 1. Bitcoin is approximately around $75,000, which is in line with the current price trend.
The wild era of crypto assets has officially ended.
The US SEC + CFTC has established a new regulatory framework for crypto assets, which may benefit crypto assets in the long term $BTC
On March 17, 2026, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) jointly issued an explanatory document numbered 33-11412. The 68-page regulatory framework officially declares: US crypto regulation bids farewell to a decade-long era of "enforcement-based regulation" and enters a new era driven by "ProjectCrypto" characterized by clarity and harmony.
The document explicitly names mainstream tokens such as BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, DOT, AVAX, LINK, etc. as digital commodities. These assets are not controlled by any single centralized entity and do not possess the inherent economic rights to generate passive income.
Structurally, the document establishes a clear analytical path: first classify assets, then determine transaction structures, and finally analyze whether investment relationships continue to exist.
More importantly, this is a rare coordinated result between the SEC and CFTC on crypto regulatory issues. Previously, the two agencies had long-standing disagreements on the definition of "securities vs commodities," and this joint framework essentially provides a preliminary classification of major asset categories, marking the transition of US crypto regulation from a stage of "institutional power competition" to a "division of labor system based on unified rules."
This 68-page document not only ends a decade of regulatory chaos but also establishes the US's leadership position in the global crypto regulatory field. For practitioners, this is a must-read "industry constitution"; for investors, this is a clear "rights protection guide"; for entrepreneurs, this is a definitive "compliance roadmap." The era of the "Wild West" of crypto assets has officially come to a close. #night With the deep integration of AI artificial intelligence and the crypto field, some tokens in the AI sector will usher in explosive growth opportunities. @MidnightNetwork A blockchain using zero-knowledge ("ZK") proof technology can provide practical functions without sacrificing data protection or ownership. $NIGHT
The reason for the sudden rise in BTC in the past few days has been found
Because capital is fleeing the Middle East in large quantities and starting to flood into Hong Kong and Singapore. Due to the capital exodus from Dubai, housing prices have plummeted by 35%, the government has begun to panic, and capital controls have started; transferring 100,000 USD now requires scrutiny. This is the core factor behind the recent rise in cryptocurrency!
The decentralization of cryptocurrency provides an excellent path for the rapid flow of capital, allowing it to escape geopolitical influences. In the future, the AI economy will be inseparable from cryptocurrency. For example, @MidnightNetwork $NIGHT This blockchain uses zero-knowledge (ZK) proof technology, which can provide utility without compromising data protection or ownership.
Dubai, as the world's busiest international aviation hub, has seen all flights suspended and is now closing indefinitely, which is a sword affecting Dubai's economy!
This is not a regional disruption, but a failure in one of the most critical nodes of the global aviation network.
Dubai is not just an airport; it is the largest hub connecting Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. All flights from Mumbai to London, from Singapore to Frankfurt, from Nairobi to New York, passing through the Gulf region, are either canceled, delayed, or rerouted thousands of miles to bypass closed airspace, wasting fuel and incurring high costs, causing airline stock prices to plummet! Dubai's economy relies on connectivity. The tourism, trade, finance, and logistics industries all depend on the openness of Dubai International Airport, and currently, Dubai's economy is suffering heavy blows, especially market confidence, which will take a longer time to repair!
The war in the United States can be described as killing three birds with one stone, First, the Iranian nuclear threat has been eliminated, and Middle Eastern hegemony has returned to America's ally, Israel. Second, it has curtailed the rapid development of the Middle East. In recent years, the UAE has become the top destination for immigration and net capital inflow, which is now coming to an end. Third, it has struck at Europe and Japan/South Korea; the soaring oil prices have the least damage to the United States because the U.S. is a net exporter of oil globally. Look at the recent exchange rates of Europe and Japan; funds are being sold off and starting to return to the dollar. This calculation is really clever! #night #night