墨烟云梦

Regarding the Nasdaq: in recent years, it’s actually similar to the crypto market. It’s a four-year big cycle, during which you’ll experience bull and bear phases of that big cycle. The previous big-cycle bear market appeared in 2022. So this is why I’m being very cautious about a bear market happening this year.
The Nasdaq is usually the most friendly investment market for going long. From the perspective of a larger cycle, there’s a saying: “cut once in a year, but enjoy meat for three years.” So if you want to reduce risk and obtain stable investment returns, just avoid the bear year—holding in a laid-back,佛系 (nonchalant) way is enough.
The Nasdaq actually also has a “Xiaonian” within each year—every year within the year there will be both a bull segment and a bear segment. In other words, you can find opportunities to trade swings within the year. No matter whether you’re bullish or bearish, it’s relatively fair. The U.S. stock market is a more fair investment market. This is reflected in the fact that ordinary people can short sell as well; it’s no longer exclusive to the privileged. As for quant investing, it has very strict requirements. If quantitative trading severely affects market health, then harsh policies will be implemented.

Important matters should be said three times. The third time is to warn about the risk of a U.S. stock market crash. Last week, the Nasdaq 100 indicator showed a weekly-level top candle, which should be the final signal to exit. Don’t think that as long as the U.S. market drops far enough, you can blindly buy the dip. It probably won’t crash—most people haven’t experienced how a U.S. stock market crash can surge like a mountain wave. Just a friendly reminder. For the Nasdaq 100 indicator at the weekly level, over the past 6 years, I have never seen accumulated selling volume as strong as the recent level. In other words, even in 2022 it was like this. If you’re interested, go take a look at what happened in the U.S. stock market in 2022.

Crude oil will enter a bottoming process here and prepare for a new round of advance, so the trading strategy is mainly low play; you can just trade by watching the bottom line.

SanDisk estimates that in the short term, the market will enter a 4-hour triangular range-bound consolidation, with the basic idea being that it will oscillate between the upper and lower lines—the upper line is marked as 🈳, and the lower line as 哆. First, it’ll move a little to warm up.

Hynix seems to be thinking about a short-term play with a bit of ambition—try a short for a quick trial and error; storage lately has been a little stubbornly strong.

Let’s talk about BTC this evening. This is something that a lot of people are concerned about. BTC is currently in its breakout phase: at the weekly level, it needs to break through two strong resistance lines. It has already crossed the first hurdle and is now testing the second. Just now it shook once—no need to say more. I guess not a few folks are eager to try shorting it. Even though the 15-minute timeframe has topped with two divergence candles, and even on this very small 15-minute level, it hasn’t given a sell signal. Looks like the main force has made a huge commitment. This week it looks like we’ll have to force our way through the two resistance lines. I can only offer a friendly reminder: historically, this kind of scenario has been more likely to happen. Try not to block the doorway with the gun pointed out when someone else has the firepower fully turned on.

The Nasdaq (QQQ) daily-level pattern $QQQ has appeared. Previously it was only 4-hour level; now it has officially upgraded to daily level. It just hits the second pressure point I predicted for the top. It’s not yet the end of the swing, but it will give the bears a chance to breathe—those who already have the big meat from spot positions should pull in a bit.
There aren’t many people in the square who can issue risk warnings.

Just a friendly reminder: the U.S. stock market group frenzy on Friday isn’t a good sign. Looks like next week we’ll be stocking up on diapers again.

Amazon has some available partners—go ahead and reduce a bit first; later, it should have a higher level.

BTC has crossed the Yalu River—at this point in time, isn't this a different cycle? Will it diverge from the U.S. stock market?

Quick reminder for semiconductors: try not to use too much capital. Even though we’re bearish for next week, this week is more of an uptrend—especially for semiconductors. It’s too wild; don’t get wiped out before it has even dropped.

This morning, I closed the crude oil position that was making a small move. Now I've re-entered crude oil with half of the original position. In theory, the uptrend isn't over yet. After reverting on the hourly super trend, it also forms an inverse T. Honestly, you can refer to silver—when it usually starts, there's about a 2-in-3 probability of going up to the top.

Talk about storage—looks like it’s only retaliating once against the air force. I’m not really looking at how high it goes; instead, there are a few signs of shorting after the killing. I started experimenting with storage as a sector position 🈳 and went straight for a sector index ETF 🈳. As for Koru…

btc暂时不看🈳，保持横盘上行形态。昨天是美股出现砸盘动作，但顶着短线相对高位让你任意做空——这会吸引一定的人去追空。因此，哪怕不推得太高，也会对空军补刀，清理一些高倍空单。他会慢慢跨过周线、长期压制线。这种走势是有持续做多意图的。你就算不做多，也不要乱空他了

Cut crude oil positions by half, just take a quick short. Leave room to add to the position; the overall market is a bit too hot.

Micron has reached the first expected support platform. I’m wondering if the watch can hold—my first marked support is 830. I’ve completely closed all short positions in the storage sector.

Yesterday morning I was still thinking whether storage is a breakthrough, whether the Nasdaq is not done yet, and whether we need to push it to 739
Suddenly I thought of the C... guy's law, so I guessed the ending

For this post, other people basically won’t get into something this comprehensive—only I’m the one who talks about it.
Earlier I posted something. A lot of people were completely baffled. Let me explain it now.
The first chart is the daily chart of crude oil. I’ve marked 1 and 2 to tell you this is two chopsticks. As for the chopstick theory, I already explained it in my earlier crude oil trend prediction post. If you’re interested, you can go look it up. If you want to learn, don’t be so lazy.
The second figure is the Nasdaq index; it’s also two chopsticks.
And for the third one, I mentioned that the relationship between crude oil and the overall market is like the relationship between the sun and the moon—it’s meant to explain how the sun rises and the moon sets. When crude oil rises, the broader market collapses.

US stock shuttle is here. NVIDIA’s volume talk has already appeared. The ones that typically talk from high levels and then get out—won’t possibly notify you to enter the trade. Take advantage of the disagreement; I’ll be first to give it up 🈳

Gold $XAU Silver $XAG A car is coming for gold and silver. I just liquidated my remaining gold positions—so it means the gold will be withdrawing. The silver was flung away earlier; in a fit of rage, I joined the 🈳 army. I just added a little to the base position 🈳