星辰云泽

After getting stopped out on my Bitcoin short position the other day, I decided to change my strategy: if I can’t win, I’ll join in. I did two rounds of spot short-term trades. In the first round, I bought and sold the next day for a 20% profit. In the second round, I bought spot in eight different cryptocurrencies. I’m currently up by around 20%, and I’m planning to hold until tomorrow to observe. My short losses have already been recovered.\nI’ll observe how next week will go before placing another order.

#BTC Bitcoin’s rally this round is moving far too fast—so many people got liquidated while still in a daze, rising by 15,000 points in just three days.
I don’t mean to mock the bears; my short position also stopped out decisively after holding steady above 70,000. If I can’t handle it, I truly can’t handle it. Without the stop-loss, I guess I’d be unable to eat or sleep right now.
What if I lose money? Then you review it. If you can’t beat them, join them. Bitcoin and Ethereum have risen so much that it’s not something I dare to chase—so then you chase the altcoins. Altcoins have been suppressed for such a long time; once this wave of heat picks up, they will inevitably follow higher. Where can “Big Cake” keep shorting from? I don’t know.
Wait until it prints a new high, then pull back—if the second rally doesn’t break the previous high, should you place a late, right-side short position then?
Will “Big Cake” drop again to below 60,000?
This question depends on the height of the next push: if it breaks 80,000, then basically the low of this round at 57,500 can be confirmed. Then, if it falls back below 70,000, you can start setting up long-term spot positions.
The purpose of this rally isn’t to liquidate shorts—it’s to push up spot prices. With spot buying for the ETF, “Big Cake”’s upward phase is still mainly during the US session and the European session; the downward pressure doesn’t have that much effect. Also, short squeezing: it looks more like shorts are getting squeezed rather than a simple, one-time liquidation of shorts. If it were purely to trigger contract liquidations, the price would have fallen back long ago. This rally feels more like a move to raise the price for distribution. Since it’s raising for distribution, “Big Cake” won’t keep dropping in the short term.
Don’t guess the bottom or touch the top. Confirm your trading thesis—only trade on confirmation.
In the short term, I’d rather trade altcoins. The logic is what I said: altcoins have been squeezed for too long and need an outlet.
Spot first—futures are easy to get shaken out by volatility.
Personal view only, not investment advice.

Today I saw a sentence:

I don’t invest in the pigs that fly up at the funnel’s opening. I only respect the people who quietly move forward in the mud and swamp.

That’s also why I haven’t gone after the U.S. stock market!

No disrespect intended!

Ten-month bear market, idle and doing nothing, started drinking tea every day to study Chinese classics, and recently I have gained some insights! Using the wisdom of the “Tao Te Ching” and the “I Ching” to look at it, the market’s rise and fall actually follows the rule of “when things reach their extreme, they turn to their opposite—misfortune gives way to good fortune; things grow to their limit and then reverse.” $BTC The move from 15,000 to 126,000 was “the dragon at its height brings regret.” Now the pullback is “peeling away to return.” In the foundation-building (bottom-building) stage, the greatest taboo is being restless and impulsive, or chasing rallies and selling in panic. It may be better to treat market fluctuations with a mindset of “maintaining emptiness and guarding stillness,” and wait until “one yang returns” (confirmation of trend reversal) before making plans—this is also a process of cultivating one’s mindset.

#BTC走势分析 I've seen many people doing technical analysis, and the ones who draw lines the most are usually just a few types: support and resistance lines, trend lines, drawing wave lines, Fibonacci, and various pattern formations. I looked at the basis for the line-drawing in this blogger's post for a long time but couldn't quite make sense of it, and somehow it even has 1k views. Could some expert please guide me on what kind of line-drawing method this is? No wonder I can't make money—I guess I still need to keep learning 😅

The next bull market’s BTC peak will be hard to break through 200,000!

Everyone has their own view of where Bitcoin’s high and low points are. Here’s my analysis—maybe it’s not correct, just treat it as something to watch for fun.

In the last bear market, BTC based around 15k. It then rose to the top of this bull cycle near 120k, roughly an 8x gain.

This bull cycle’s top at 126k is less than double the previous bull cycle’s top at 69k.

So, in the next bull market, BTC’s highest price probably won’t exceed 240k. Most likely it will be suppressed by 200k, making it very hard to break through!

If, going forward, exchanges still focus their attention on US stocks, then perhaps the next bull market for BTC can only reach around 150k.

I know many people will ask: Where is this cycle’s low point?
In my opinion, it will be between 40k and 50k.

Bitcoin’s gain each bull cycle is gradually being compressed. From the 40k–50k bottom to the top of the next cycle at 150k–200k, the expected upside is about 3–4x profit.

60k is absolutely not the bottom.

If you have a large amount of funds, you can DCA in at 60k, buying a portion every time it drops by 1,000 points. But 60k is definitely not suitable for going all-in to bottom-pick.

If you don’t have much capital, perhaps just use long-term contracts and wait patiently. I myself only bought 20% of my position at 60k.

Based on the BTC cycle, there’s at least another year of waiting to allow time for the bottom to be confirmed.

These are my personal views. I hope they’re helpful to you.

Patience is needed—it's not the time to bottom-fish yet. Retail investors have already been cut down to almost nothing. As mentioned yesterday, exchanges are shutting down in a cluster, and those without long-term vision can't even put forward coins. Next, we'll start targeting the whales. If Bitcoin doesn’t break below 50,000, the next cycle is unlikely to break the previous high.

In just a few short days, BitMEX and BitMart both posted on Twitter announcing the shutdown of their exchanges.
Next, let’s guess which other exchanges will be unable to last.

The World Cup is over now, and the CHZ that those KOLs recommended back then didn’t go up at all!

Each round of bear-market scripts is basically the same: first eliminate retail investors, then target whales, and finally, in cooperation with a black swan, wipe out institutions.
Don’t say it’s impossible. There are too many cases of big institutions targeting small ones.
Those lunatics on Wall Street will do anything. Don’t say it’s only one or two small institutions—back then, Soros really used real money to attack the national banks of Southeast Asian countries, and even caused trouble in Hong Kong; it’s just that in the end the mainland government shut it down.
So nothing is impossible. After striking a few institutions, then recreate a wave of public opinion to leave retail investors completely desperate—when you can finally buy in at the bottom, that’s the timing.
If your capital is large enough, start dollar-cost averaging around the 60,000 level.
Remember: DCA isn’t blindly buying every day. Instead, buy a fixed position whenever the price drops by 500–1,000 points—not that every day, regardless of price, with a rigid buy.
For smaller capital, you especially need to plan in advance.

I see that the KOLs in the square aren’t analyzing BTC and ETH anymore— they’ve switched to stocks. Things like Micron, Hailisi, SanDisk, and so on. They think virtual currencies aren’t high-end, but do stock tokens have any “class”?
In the end, in just about a month, led by Korean stocks, even including Musk’s big rocket—everything got slashed by a huge chunk.
These KOLs last year bought the sh*tty knockoffs with their followers and made them lose money; this time they’re going around setting up every stock so they can keep harvesting the “grass.” The number of KOLs in the crypto space has already exceeded the number of followers, so it’s common to see two verified KOLs hanging around arguing and fighting for fans to build their personas. This whole circle is really rotten: project teams list the tokens and immediately dump the price; they repeatedly run control to harvest. LAB isn’t just one project—everyone is fantasizing about becoming rich overnight. And the result is that one batch of fresh “grass” after another is waiting to be harvested!

How to allocate a small-position portfolio for the next bull market

First, clarify whether you want stable returns or larger volatility to chase higher returns.

Below, I’ll explain how I plan to position for the next bull market.

Taking a total position of 8,000 USDT as an example:

1. My conservative allocation is to put it into ETH. I plan to buy around 2 ETH at about 1,300 USDT.
2. Buy Dogecoin with 1,400 USDT.
3. Buy around 4,000 USDT worth of high-momentum altcoins.

1. As long as ETH returns to 4,000+ (in the next bull market, it’s likely), then 2 ETH of the 8,000 USDT will break even, and regardless of how much the other altcoins rise, you’ll still be making money.

2. If ETH is still particularly weak in the next cycle, then Dogecoin acts as the second fallback to protect capital. Buy DOGE at around 0.05, hold for an expected 5–7x, take the middle—6x—profit, and you’ll break even with 8,400.

1 and 2 are to cover/protect the principal.

3 is to expand profits. Choose 3–5 high-beta altcoins to invest with 4,000 USDT, targeting 10x profits. (Altcoins are attack-style, high-volatility coins. This cycle, altcoins generally dropped 80–90%. While protecting your principal, you can be bold and bet on high-multiple returns.)

If things go smoothly, the 8,000 USDT cost can be recovered.

ETH 8,000 + DOGE 8,400 + altcoins 40,000 = 56,400 USDT

Of course, this is the best-case scenario.

If things don’t go smoothly—if all the altcoins get delisted—then ETH and DOGE can still protect your principal.

Everyone invests different amounts of capital. You can adjust ± based on the approach above.

Note: All investments are spot (cash) trading.

Iran again shuts the Strait of Hormuz, igniting an energy “black swan” as geopolitical tensions escalate.
Global liquidity faces depletion! Macro risks surge!
South Korea’s stock market moves first, with Japan following lower. When U.S. stocks open tonight, Bitcoin is expected to fall by about another 2,000 points. First, head to the 60,800 area to look for support.

Here’s $100,000—would you go all-in on that kind of cryptocurrency?

DOGE
PEPE
AAVE
XRP
AR
ETH
SOL
SSV
You can only choose one

Advice for small funds
Don’t buy unless the price doesn’t drop deeply
Don’t buy unless the price doesn’t drop deeply
After so many years in the crypto world, I’ve learned one lesson: only those who can endure loneliness can wait for the flowers to bloom.
Opportunities are always there—as long as you can endure loneliness.
Larger funds may consider splitting purchases of Bitcoin for under 60,000, or doing DCA.
For small funds, you may currently care more about altcoins. Although many people say “altcoins are dead.”
And I find myself in an awkward position: my capital isn’t big, but it’s also not small. If I invest in Bitcoin, the returns may not be that impressive.
So I’ll keep waiting a bit longer—until Bitcoin reaches my expected range: 2–3x leverage (i.e., a 2–3x return). If by next year it still hasn’t reached my expectations, then I’ll buy some established, mature, and stable mainstream altcoins from the community. A 2–4x return is enough.

Today I did a little one-by-one statistics. After more than five years of trading cryptocurrencies, most of the people around me lost money and left the market, and a small portion got deeply stuck. I personally didn’t lose money, but I only made a little bit of “cigarettes and alcohol” money. Although some people think wasting five years of youth, for me it’s actually not too bad. If I hadn’t been trading crypto, then either I would be a miserable office worker, or I would have failed at starting a business and be carrying loans. Life is for experience. Don’t put too much pressure on yourself.
Recently I’ve summed up a few small experiences. Feel free for everyone to add more

1、Use leverage reasonably
2、Filter messages with higher accuracy
3、Risk control
4、Refuse high-interest loans
5、Don’t bet with money you can’t afford to lose
6、Don’t talk about trading crypto to anyone around you

Just venting about getting stuck with DYDX for two years. I bought at the peak of this bull run, did a few top-ups, but the price just kept dropping lower and lower. Now it's just sitting in my wallet, and I can't be bothered to check. The more I look, the more frustrated I get. Even with the price tanking, the project team still manages to keep pushing their narrative. I started with over 40, and now I'm down to just a bit over 2. What I made through luck has now been lost just as easily. It's all tears at this point 💧$DYDX

$H The project team is not trustworthy; they first harvested early network contributors, then maliciously manipulated the market to reap profits from retail investors, and later staged a scheme to steal tokens from investors. Can we blacklist this project ASAP and delist it quickly?

@Yi He

$H Let's dive deep into the recent pump of the meme coin H. After a wild surge in price, they dumped 249 million tokens, raking in a cool 3.13 million USD.
Honestly, it's not surprising. The project team is shameless, deceiving early contributors with unfulfilled airdrop promises. Friends in the know should check out the early comments on their official Twitter – it's a sea of backlash. The project lead is throwing shade at community contributors instead of owning up, all while leveraging contributor traffic to raise funds and listing on various exchanges. They're playing the market hard to scoop up profits. We hope the official channels blacklist the H project team soon.

$BTC Black Swan incoming within six months, limit orders already set!
This time gold, US stocks, and Bitcoin plummeting are all early warnings of the Black Swan,
be cautious going long, be cautious going long.
Don't talk about shorting; I can't handle that volatility,
spot orders are set, just waiting.