牧川的观济阁

The latest strategy from Guanjige suggests to short about 1.5 times the current price of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

No matter how much it falls, the drop will not exceed 100 times, but there is no upper limit for the rise. Turning 1 into 2 is called doubling, while turning 2 into 0.2 is called a 90% drop.

Brother, it's your first day trading, and you're dealing with something that has nearly 40 times the volatility. With the same price fluctuations, how are people supposed to survive? The volatility of Ether has always been about double that of Bitcoin, okay?

【Guan Ji Ge | Anti-Consensus Sniper Log 0614】

The market looks strong, but that's the real danger.
Let me be clear today:
I'm shorting BTC at 105,800 and ETH at 2,580.

Why?
Because this is the strongest consensus position and the fuel pile the main force wants to detonate the most.

The reverse logic of BTC is very clear:
• Funding rate is positively溢价, and bulls are starting to get carried away
• The liquidation heatmap shows that nearly 300 million USD of long orders are accumulated near 105,800-106,000 with stop losses
• The market maker's option maximum pain point is at 104,500, with an incentive to suppress the price
• Everyone is staring at the "breakthrough", but the pin insertion is the real script

Trading Strategy:
Place a short order at 105,800, stop loss at 106,300, target at 103,800
Add positions in batches and strictly control risk

ETH is even more disgusting:
• Whales have transferred over 15,000 ETH to exchanges in the past 24 hours, warning of selling pressure
• Gas is sluggish, and on-chain buying is drying up
• OI surged 18%, and many new shorts have also entered, but the position is incorrect, and it is easy to repeatedly insert pins
• $2,580 is EMA99 + retail investors unanimously going long, which is also our favorite price point

Trading Strategy:
Place a short order at 2,580, stop loss at 2,620, target at 2,450
You can buy a small amount of 2,600 call options to prevent pin insertion (strike price 2,650)

What you should remember is not the price, but the structure:

The more people believe it, the more it is a trap.
The more people chase it, the more it will kill.
We are not betting on direction, we are betting on human nature.

Today you see many people shouting:
"It broke through!"
"Pull back and go long!"
"The support has stabilized!"

I just want to say one thing:

If you can all understand it,
how could the market maker not be waiting for you there?

The logic of anti-consensus sniping is very simple:
When the market cheers for "rising", we place orders for "slaughter".
The real peak always belongs only to those who go against the wind.

If you are also looking for clear and accurate trading logic,
follow "Guan Ji Ge", we don't believe in K-lines, we only believe in bait.
.

📉 Don't use stock trading tactics in the crypto world
—— Are you still chasing breakouts? You're feeding the wolves.

1️⃣ Stock market breakout = Institutional accumulation, crypto breakout = Retail investor funeral
When traditional traders shout "volume breakout looking at $110K", it’s the best time for market makers to place short orders.
In the crypto world, the main force is not "rising to accumulate", but "creating momentum to distribute".

2️⃣ All technical patterns are coordinates to hunt you down
Head and shoulders, golden cross, volume breakout? Those are not signals, they're traps.
What you think are "technical charts" are actually the "slaughter roadmap" written by market makers on the K-line for you to see.

3️⃣ The only holy grail in the crypto world: Be against consensus
When market consensus is unified, the odds are the lowest.
The real opportunity is not at the moment of "consensus formation", but at the second of "consensus collapse".
Emotional peak + soaring funding rates + whales distributing = the strongest reversal signal.

4️⃣ Special warning: Most of the first breakouts in the American market are fake
When the market just opens, a "fast-paced breakout" in the U.S. market seems strong, but is actually a trap for bulls.
If the breakout speed > 0.5% per minute, there's an 80% chance it's a false move, and it's very likely to reverse.
You are watching the "market take off", but the main force is looking at "take profit and escape".

✅ So remember:
• The stronger the consensus on technical patterns, the higher the reverse win rate
• The more arrogant the bulls, the closer the shorting opportunity
• To survive, always stand opposite those experienced in stock trading

📌 The crypto world is not for "confirming before going long", but for "doubting before counter-killing".

The dealer is quite dog-like already.

If you switch to another platform, the funding rate will be 800u.

Why delete it?

Pretty good, keep it up.

Happy Dragon Boat Festival

Almost a competitor's disk

Guanji Pavilion · Pre-Market Reminder

The market has rebounded to this position, and market sentiment has actually become a bit "too smooth".
BTC has fluctuated strongly after touching the 95789 line, and ETH has also risen, but if you look closely, you'll find: the bulls are very excited, but the bears have not really "entered the market" yet.

I previously mentioned that before a significant rise, a batch of bears must first be trapped; this wave of increase is more about creating this kind of sentiment.

At this position:
• BTC: 95800-96200 range, you can try shorting with a light position, set the stop-loss above 96600, and aim for the 94000-92800 range; take profits quickly and don't linger.
• ETH: 1820-1835 range can also try shorting, with a stop-loss at 1855 and a target of 1780-1750; treat it lightly.

This is not bearish, but rather to harvest a small segment of "creating hope for the bears" in line with the market rhythm.

Overall, the bias remains bullish; the real squeeze phase has not started yet, so don't go all in during the baiting phase.

Shorting is to push higher.
Quick hands can take a bite, slow hands can wait until the washout is over.

Guanji Pavilion · Today's Market Review

(April 26, 2025)

[Trading Session Mnemonic]
Asian session fishing, European session testing the waters, American session deciding the outcome, late session preventing sneak attacks.

[Current Status]
Beijing time 11:10, the Asian session is nearing its end.
BTC 95000, ETH 1809, the market continues the strength from last night, but the volume in the Asian session is sluggish, and prices are converging and fluctuating.

[Market Interpretation]
• Today, the Asian and European sessions are expected to mainly experience corrective fluctuations, with direction confirmation postponed until the American session.
• Both ETH and BTC have not damaged their upward structure overall, but the upward momentum is weakening, and one should guard against false breakouts in the European session.
• The American session will become the true decisive point; once the direction choice is clear, the trend will accelerate.

[Operational Suggestions]

"After fishing, guard against temptation in the European session, and the American session will determine the outcome."
At this stage, it is advisable to continue with light positions and be cautious about chasing highs.
The real opportunity to increase positions is around the opening of the American session (Beijing time 20:00-23:00).
Suggestion: Engage in minor trading during the day and prepare for major positioning in the American session, with strict stop-losses and following the trend.

[Guanji Pavilion · One-Sentence Comment]
"Don't rush to act while fishing; save the bullets for the decisive American session."

【Guanji Pavilion · Virtual Currency Trading Time Table】

You may have brushed through countless candlesticks, but have you recognized the rhythm of 24 hours in a day?
The cryptocurrency market is open 24/7, but the time that truly belongs to you is only a few hours.
I have compressed years of review into a chart—this is not a textbook, but a survival map that only a living person can use.

This time table tells you when to take action and when to stay silent.
When is the main force accumulating, and when is it a false breakout trying to lure you to jump off the cliff?
To trade, you must first understand time before discussing techniques.

【Trading Time Mnemonics and Trading Mindset】

"Asian session fishing, European session testing the waters, American session deciding the outcome, end session guarding against sneak attacks"

• Early Asian Session (08:00-10:00): Light positions, better to miss out than to make mistakes.
• Mid European Session (14:00-16:00): Direction unclear, mainly observing to avoid false signals.
• American Session Overlap (20:00-22:00): Main force is the harshest, follow the trend and strike, strictly set stop-loss.
• End Session (02:00-04:00): High frequency of reversals, luring longs and shorts, light positions overnight.

If you can't even stand at the right time, no matter how good your technique is, you are just giving money to the market.
Save this table, don’t bet your life on luck.

——Guanji Pavilion

Subsequent Downward Space Assessment:

1. First Support Level: 1572
• Yesterday's lower boundary of the fluctuation range, previous low support, easy to rebound on the first touch.

2. Second Support Level: 1560
• Previous platform low point, the true bearish target area, may only reach after breaking through 1572.

3. Extreme Support: 1548-1550
• Represents a deep decline retracement; if it drops to this area, it indicates the start of a larger bearish trend.

Emotional Analysis:

Currently, the market is dominated by bears, with sentiment shifting from "short squeeze" to "panic selling," making rebounds easily sold off. If there is weakness in the rebound around the 1585-1588 area, bears may continue to control the market.

Guanji Pavilion · Muchuan | ETH Market Expectation (15-Minute Structural Analysis)

This morning's market movement is very interesting, a textbook case.

The price has just broken through the 15-minute downtrend line, seemingly ready to strengthen, but it actually looks more like a typical “smart money washout” action —
stopping out the shorts below, enticing buyers to enter the market, and then reversing and striking at the highs.

Structurally, this is a script I'm familiar with.

Muchuan's expected path A: Induce buying then drop (main logic)
• Currently hovering around 1595, which is a false breakout after just breaking the trend line;
• The trading volume has not significantly increased, and the bulls are struggling to push higher;
• If a high-volume bearish candle appears afterwards, dropping back below the trend line, it will confirm the failure of the inducement;
• The next first target support looks towards 1580, with the main target support around 1560;
• MACD and KDJ are also preparing to turn down from a high position, which aligns well.

All of this points to a classic script: washout → induce buying → reverse strike.

Alternative path B: Short squeeze movement (defensive logic)
• If the price holds above 1585 (trend line retest without breaking), and then surges towards 1600 with volume;
• A short-term small-level short squeeze might develop, retesting 1616;
• This movement is not the main expectation, but risk control should be set.

Strategy thoughts:
• Aggressive short: can enter lightly when falling below the trend line, MACD death cross, and KDJ synchronously declining;
• Conservative short: wait for the confirmation of the failed inducement before considering entry;
• Do not recommend following long positions for now, unless it stabilizes above 1600 with volume;
• Set stop-loss above 1600 to guard against counter-expected movements.

Smart money does not directly crash the market; they first clear the battlefield, eliminate the shorts, gather liquidity, and then decisively strike.
This market looks very much like their methods.

Muchuan continues to observe, waiting to act after confirming signals.

Guanji Pavilion | "Why isn't it falling?"

The silence of the market is a kind of oppression.

SOL has been stuck at 134 for these few hours, like a silent trial.
The bulls are reluctant, the bears are not in a hurry, and the retail investors repeatedly ask themselves:
"Why isn't it falling yet?"

Sideways movement is the most toxic emotional trap,
It is not as swift as a crash,
Nor as exciting as a surge,
It makes people hesitate, doubt, and feel anxious—
The more you stare at it, the more you want to do something.
You might think patience is a virtue,
But in this low liquidity quagmire,
Patience means chronic losses.

The bears are not in a rush to attack,
Because they know,
The retail investors are not panicking yet, they haven’t given up their faith.

As for the bulls?
It looks like they are holding on stubbornly,
But in reality, they are trapped at high entry points,
They dare not cut losses or increase their positions,
They are just holding on, waiting for a glimmer of uncertain rebound—
Waiting for BTC to regain its senses, waiting for the US stock market to open, waiting for the main force to show mercy.

But the market never waits for anyone.

The more you want to wait, the easier it is to become the one being harvested.

If you haven’t acted yet, congratulations, watching is the right choice;
If you have already gone long and haven’t cut losses, that’s just getting used to being hurt.

It’s not a question of whether to short now,
But rather if you hold on a little longer, the bulls will collapse on their own.

Shorting is not about greed, but about protection.

Spot goods are temporarily not available

Guanji Pavilion | April 18 Morning

The market always wants to take a gamble, betting that the Federal Reserve will turn dovish,
betting that sentiment can break through reality.
But what Powell gave last night was a slap in the face.

"No rush to cut interest rates, inflationary pressures still exist."
This is not hawkish, but realistic.
Stablecoins, bank cryptoization...
are favorable, but not the kind of good news that should be priced in now.

BTC is hovering just below 85K,
with a top divergence, shrinking volume, and MACD death cross not yet opening,
the rebound strength is too short,
yet enough to trap greedy people at high positions.

To go long now is to embrace an uncertain dream.

You will feel uncomfortable, trapped, and it's hard to decide whether to cut or not.
Because it's not that your skills are lacking,
it's that the market has no intention of strengthening at all.
It's just holding up, not collapsing.

Trading suggestions:

Try shorting lightly around 85,000, set a stop loss above 85,500,
target first at 84,200, then at 83,700.
Going long? You need to wait for the MACD golden cross and for volume to warm up before discussing.

Don't let the market teach you,
what it means to be "lonely with high position longs."
The market is dull, and news is lagging,
for bulls, it is destined to be a tough time.

Buying coins from old acquaintances at the bottom, but ended up getting raided. Selling at cost to recover some funds and replenish the position.