做交易的墨白

No video today. Everyone, take a look at the text-and-image viewpoints.

Viewpoint 1: A low-cycle period resumes with another short-term upward move. After the peak, a correction will occur. The difference is: if this short-term rally directly takes off (as shown by the white indicator in Figure 1), then the expected magnitude of the subsequent correction is limited, and it is highly unlikely that price will break below the 65,000 level again. If it’s not a blowout-style surge, then the pullback can be shallow or deep—it can consolidate sideways in place, or it can pull back significantly, even breaking back below 60,000 again (as shown by the green indicator in Figure 1).

Viewpoint 2: The current upswing in the low-cycle trading range has already reached its target one step ahead in terms of price. After the rally finishes, it likely won’t be able to break through the current level by a large margin. Therefore, the probability of a deep pullback in the next phase increases greatly. For example, price could return to 60xxx or even lower. In essence, this is the same kind of move as the green one in Figure 1—just a weaker version—so the chances of a deep pullback are higher. For instance, when a prior range rally failed to break above 64,400 and we chose to go short, unlike a move that plays out like the green scenario, the pullback there may be shallow or deep.

In summary: If you’re worried about a direct “take off” from in-place action, you can open some long positions or allocate some spot holdings to effectively reduce the anxiety of missing the move. For more prudent traders, you can patiently wait for this current short-term upward leg to complete. If the rally looks ordinary, you can short to capture the adjustment, then go long again after the correction. If it directly takes off, then you won’t short to eat the pullback (you can try shorting the majors), and then go long again after the adjustment.
#特朗普召开会议筹划扩大对伊攻势

I still firmly remain bullish even though MicroStrategy sold coins. I won’t leave unless the price breaks the support level. My spot cost is around 58,700, and my contract long entry price is around 60,800.
#微策略卖出比特币

What are the signs of loss aversion in trading? Why does trading need practice?

Now there is a new trader who has no trading experience at all. He has just funded his account, and he’s about to start placing trades.

First, what will he do?

He will do a lot of analysis—whether it’s fundamental analysis, technical analysis, or money/position-related analysis, whether it’s guidance from “experts,” or recommendations from friends and family…

He will search for evidence until that evidence becomes strong enough that it fills him with the courage to actually place the trade.

Then he places his trades and starts trading. For the first few trades, let’s assume he makes money. But in his most recent trade, after he places it, he loses money.

So what will he do?

Will he swiftly cut off that position by closing the order?

Absolutely not.

Because he strongly dislikes the feeling of loss. As long as the position hasn’t hit a stop-loss, it doesn’t count as a real loss. But if he closes it, that would be a certain, confirmed loss. And can this kind of loss be salvaged? Of course—it only needs the price to move up a bit to get him back to break-even, or he can add more to lower his average cost, waiting for a rebound to get back to even.

So his choice is almost certainly to hold or add to the position until he gets back to breakeven.

All of these reactions are no different from how we deal with losses in everyday life. All of these choices—inevitable as water flows, natural as it should be—may seem like a trader’s own decision, but deep down, everything is predetermined.

Because this is instinct. This is how we are born.

Loss aversion—an instinctive rebellion against human nature—refusal to let losses run unchecked—is the only way to take control of your trading fate.