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海疆
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海疆

久经考验的套牢砖家。动态内容仅仅为个人思考和见识分享。推特可搜索[马赫]
Occasional Trader
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Article
If the market completely turns bearish, what price level is suitable for buying BTC at the bottom?If the market completely turns bearish, what price level is suitable for buying BTC at the bottom? Here we draw on the perspective of renowned analyst Willy Woo: the realized value days floor model (CVDD floor model, Bitcoin bottom valuation model) When Bitcoin is transferred from an old investor who bought in at $1 to a new investor who bought in at $100,000, the new investor will assess the value of these Bitcoins at a higher bottom price, which helps to elevate the recognized bottom price of the entire Bitcoin supply globally. CVDD floor model The pink area shown in the chart (the very bottom one) represents its bottom valuation. Currently, it shows that its bottom is $41,370, meaning Bitcoin will never drop below $40,000.

If the market completely turns bearish, what price level is suitable for buying BTC at the bottom?

If the market completely turns bearish, what price level is suitable for buying BTC at the bottom?
Here we draw on the perspective of renowned analyst Willy Woo: the realized value days floor model (CVDD floor model, Bitcoin bottom valuation model)
When Bitcoin is transferred from an old investor who bought in at $1 to a new investor who bought in at $100,000, the new investor will assess the value of these Bitcoins at a higher bottom price, which helps to elevate the recognized bottom price of the entire Bitcoin supply globally.
CVDD floor model
The pink area shown in the chart (the very bottom one) represents its bottom valuation. Currently, it shows that its bottom is $41,370, meaning Bitcoin will never drop below $40,000.
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I really suggest that everyone shouldn’t put so much energy into the crypto market anymore. Bitcoin is still something you can buy—around 150,000 in the next round. Other coins like HYPE or ZEC are also okay. But for other coins, the future looks bleak. This is a once-in-a-decade turning point in the crypto industry. The old story of getting listed, getting onto exchanges, and selling to retail investors is completely over now. $ONDO In the earlier cycles, there was still hope. But in this current cycle, the game is basically over. That’s why many exchanges have shifted to doing U.S.-stock token businesses—these don’t collect listing fees or trading fees. So as you can see, quite a few second-tier exchanges have also shut down recently. $ETH Put more effort into China’s STAR Market and U.S. stocks. When the industry revives again around 2028, you can always come back then—no rush. $BTC Of course, right now Bitcoin is definitely in the bottom range. It’s just that time waits for no one. The whole circle is completely rotten.
I really suggest that everyone shouldn’t put so much energy into the crypto market anymore. Bitcoin is still something you can buy—around 150,000 in the next round. Other coins like HYPE or ZEC are also okay. But for other coins, the future looks bleak. This is a once-in-a-decade turning point in the crypto industry. The old story of getting listed, getting onto exchanges, and selling to retail investors is completely over now. $ONDO

In the earlier cycles, there was still hope. But in this current cycle, the game is basically over. That’s why many exchanges have shifted to doing U.S.-stock token businesses—these don’t collect listing fees or trading fees. So as you can see, quite a few second-tier exchanges have also shut down recently. $ETH

Put more effort into China’s STAR Market and U.S. stocks. When the industry revives again around 2028, you can always come back then—no rush. $BTC

Of course, right now Bitcoin is definitely in the bottom range.

It’s just that time waits for no one. The whole circle is completely rotten.
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I started trading on Binance in 2019. Over all these years, I’m sure I’ve contributed at least several hundred thousand in trading fees. But in all these years, I’ve never seen Binance give me anything as a small gift. Instead, they just give tickets and hotel stays to big KOLs without even blinking. Binance really knows how to gauge value. Shrewd.
I started trading on Binance in 2019. Over all these years, I’m sure I’ve contributed at least several hundred thousand in trading fees. But in all these years, I’ve never seen Binance give me anything as a small gift. Instead, they just give tickets and hotel stays to big KOLs without even blinking.

Binance really knows how to gauge value. Shrewd.
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A vague feeling—maybe Bitcoin’s bottom is around that 56,000 level. This July, there could be another attempt to test the lows. Back to $PUMP : the trend looks good, but it’s too bad these people’s buybacks aren’t strong enough. They earn nearly $700,000 a day, yet they only repurchase 50%. It’s a highly speculative platform. If they truly wanted to be responsible for their own coin price, they should be doing 90% or more. Who knows how the other half of the funds is actually being used? $SOL
A vague feeling—maybe Bitcoin’s bottom is around that 56,000 level. This July, there could be another attempt to test the lows. Back to $PUMP : the trend looks good, but it’s too bad these people’s buybacks aren’t strong enough. They earn nearly $700,000 a day, yet they only repurchase 50%. It’s a highly speculative platform. If they truly wanted to be responsible for their own coin price, they should be doing 90% or more. Who knows how the other half of the funds is actually being used? $SOL
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I've temporarily added $JUP and MONAD to my watchlist. Just keeping an eye on them for now, no rush to buy. With the current market conditions, the bottom keeps getting pushed up, so they can chill on the list for a bit. $MON
I've temporarily added $JUP and MONAD to my watchlist. Just keeping an eye on them for now, no rush to buy. With the current market conditions, the bottom keeps getting pushed up, so they can chill on the list for a bit.
$MON
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PUMP I lost, I lost, this holding experience is trash. Just a slight miss on selling, and we take a 5-candle drop on the 4-hour chart, what a total blunder. The market still hasn't reversed, and this rebound is likely over.
PUMP I lost, I lost, this holding experience is trash. Just a slight miss on selling, and we take a 5-candle drop on the 4-hour chart, what a total blunder. The market still hasn't reversed, and this rebound is likely over.
海疆
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I've recently ramped up my watching time. You guys can check out $ONDO first, then you can keep an eye on the currently exploding $SUI . The technical chart is way too similar. But I put all my funds into buying $PUMP, hoping for a good outcome.
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I've recently ramped up my watching time. You guys can check out $ONDO first, then you can keep an eye on the currently exploding $SUI . The technical chart is way too similar. But I put all my funds into buying $PUMP, hoping for a good outcome.
I've recently ramped up my watching time. You guys can check out $ONDO first, then you can keep an eye on the currently exploding $SUI . The technical chart is way too similar. But I put all my funds into buying $PUMP, hoping for a good outcome.
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I stacked some positions at $PUMP , hoping for some good fortune. If the market bounces back, I hope to recover some losses. $SOL
I stacked some positions at $PUMP , hoping for some good fortune. If the market bounces back, I hope to recover some losses. $SOL
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This coin $PUMP seems to be building up some momentum. The key thing to watch is whether it can break through a crucial resistance level at 0.002076. If it breaks out, we could be in for a juicy profit.
This coin $PUMP seems to be building up some momentum. The key thing to watch is whether it can break through a crucial resistance level at 0.002076. If it breaks out, we could be in for a juicy profit.
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I haven't updated the square for a long time, and I believe everyone shares my feelings. Despair, disheartened. The altcoins have risen a bit again, but this is not a reversal. If you chase in again, remember to learn to sell. If you don't sell, it will always be just joy beans, which is meaningless. For those with channels, pay more attention to the US stock market. Even the A-shares are developing in a good direction. Walk on multiple legs, so that once the cryptocurrency path doesn't work, there are at least other ways to make money. You can't just hold on. $ETH Just to mention, Bitcoin below 70,000 is definitely in the bottom range, and the next round will be around 150,000 to 160,000. $BTC
I haven't updated the square for a long time, and I believe everyone shares my feelings. Despair, disheartened.

The altcoins have risen a bit again, but this is not a reversal. If you chase in again, remember to learn to sell. If you don't sell, it will always be just joy beans, which is meaningless.

For those with channels, pay more attention to the US stock market. Even the A-shares are developing in a good direction.

Walk on multiple legs, so that once the cryptocurrency path doesn't work, there are at least other ways to make money.

You can't just hold on. $ETH

Just to mention, Bitcoin below 70,000 is definitely in the bottom range, and the next round will be around 150,000 to 160,000. $BTC
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If you previously bought the spot $BERA and are now in a position to sell, then this is your chance to cash out. There is also a group of people desperately shouting that an opportunity has come, telling you that those people are just fools. If you don't sell now, the smart ones will, and if you hold onto your coins, they will depreciate significantly, indirectly making you a bag holder. Be careful, brother, making money in the crypto world is too difficult now, and you can't afford to squander your capital. $ZRO $STG Smart people always sell during a surge because they know that surges are not sustainable. Bag holders, on the other hand, always think that such surges will continue, only to find out that they are the only ones left.
If you previously bought the spot $BERA and are now in a position to sell, then this is your chance to cash out. There is also a group of people desperately shouting that an opportunity has come, telling you that those people are just fools. If you don't sell now, the smart ones will, and if you hold onto your coins, they will depreciate significantly, indirectly making you a bag holder. Be careful, brother, making money in the crypto world is too difficult now, and you can't afford to squander your capital. $ZRO $STG

Smart people always sell during a surge because they know that surges are not sustainable. Bag holders, on the other hand, always think that such surges will continue, only to find out that they are the only ones left.
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Have you seen so many malicious agreements, project parties, market makers, and KOLs in the circle? Have they been punished? Not a single one? $OM $MOVE and $RIVER
Have you seen so many malicious agreements, project parties, market makers, and KOLs in the circle? Have they been punished? Not a single one? $OM $MOVE and $RIVER
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The core idea can be summed up in one sentence: Buying Bitcoin below 65,000 in batches is perfectly fine $BTC . The bottom is likely to be around 50,000 to 60,000. Don't listen to those who randomly shout to buy $ETH , you must buy, but also wait for the next cycle to do the right side. Those messy altcoins, haven't cleared yet? Clearing now seems to have little significance. Especially those tokens that have large unlocks every month.
The core idea can be summed up in one sentence: Buying Bitcoin below 65,000 in batches is perfectly fine $BTC . The bottom is likely to be around 50,000 to 60,000. Don't listen to those who randomly shout to buy $ETH , you must buy, but also wait for the next cycle to do the right side. Those messy altcoins, haven't cleared yet? Clearing now seems to have little significance. Especially those tokens that have large unlocks every month.
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If you are very dissatisfied with Binance, do not buy any coins other than Bitcoin $BTC . Currently, $BNB seems that Binance will not be affected negatively. Many altcoins still cannot be bought, let's endure a difficult period first.
If you are very dissatisfied with Binance, do not buy any coins other than Bitcoin $BTC . Currently, $BNB seems that Binance will not be affected negatively. Many altcoins still cannot be bought, let's endure a difficult period first.
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If you are really disappointed with the cryptocurrency market, and have never bought stocks but still want to make money, go buy the entrepreneurship index and the technology innovation board index. There is still hope. $SOL $ETH $BNB
If you are really disappointed with the cryptocurrency market, and have never bought stocks but still want to make money, go buy the entrepreneurship index and the technology innovation board index. There is still hope. $SOL $ETH $BNB
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$ASTER Why is it constantly declining? Smart people can see the problem at a glance, while fools believe that with Zhao Changpeng's calls, the perpetual contract is popular, and there are buybacks, so it won't disappoint. If your logic for buying coins is based on this, then you won't lose this time, but you'll definitely lose big later. $BNB Early large holders, airdrop hunters, and unlocking are the three important selling pressures causing the constant decline in coin prices. I specifically use unlocking as an example; each month, 1% of the unlocked supply has a value of 56.41 million dollars. If you are an investor in unlocking, would you sell or not? Not selling is foolish. Currently, Aster's buyback rule is 20% to 40% of daily fees, and the fee revenue for the past 30 days is 24 million dollars, equivalent to 4.8 to 9.6 million dollars in buying power. This amount of money is completely insignificant compared to the selling pressure before. The overall market situation is bad, which is certainly an important reason. If it continues to be bad, $DYDX serves as a warning. Nowadays, I can still see novices taking over dYdX, which is disappointing. If I can persuade one, I will.
$ASTER Why is it constantly declining? Smart people can see the problem at a glance, while fools believe that with Zhao Changpeng's calls, the perpetual contract is popular, and there are buybacks, so it won't disappoint. If your logic for buying coins is based on this, then you won't lose this time, but you'll definitely lose big later. $BNB

Early large holders, airdrop hunters, and unlocking are the three important selling pressures causing the constant decline in coin prices. I specifically use unlocking as an example; each month, 1% of the unlocked supply has a value of 56.41 million dollars. If you are an investor in unlocking, would you sell or not? Not selling is foolish.

Currently, Aster's buyback rule is 20% to 40% of daily fees, and the fee revenue for the past 30 days is 24 million dollars, equivalent to 4.8 to 9.6 million dollars in buying power. This amount of money is completely insignificant compared to the selling pressure before.

The overall market situation is bad, which is certainly an important reason. If it continues to be bad, $DYDX serves as a warning. Nowadays, I can still see novices taking over dYdX, which is disappointing. If I can persuade one, I will.
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$SUI can observe the strength of this rebound, which is very weak. From my interactions with the SUI team, they are all lying flat, enjoying a leisurely life, so don't go and take over anymore. As long as there is an unlock every month, everyone is smart and must sell, or else the buyers will become the big losers. Many so-called leaders in the Asia-Pacific region live extravagant lives, and the money is plundered from these buyers. This is the harsh reality. There are too many air projects; when they rise, remember to sell. $US $NS
$SUI can observe the strength of this rebound, which is very weak. From my interactions with the SUI team, they are all lying flat, enjoying a leisurely life, so don't go and take over anymore. As long as there is an unlock every month, everyone is smart and must sell, or else the buyers will become the big losers. Many so-called leaders in the Asia-Pacific region live extravagant lives, and the money is plundered from these buyers. This is the harsh reality. There are too many air projects; when they rise, remember to sell. $US $NS
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#plasma $XPL Say something from the heart. If the market continues to sustain, or even touches around 100,000, then Plasma still has a chance for a big rebound. The main issue is that it dropped too harshly in the previous period, with a high point retracting by 10 times without any rebound. A lot of short-sell chips have already been gradually digested, and what remains is the severely trapped capital. This part of the capital will sell during the price increase, which will create resistance; therefore, the price won't suddenly surge. You can position with a small amount, buy slowly, and observe. Personally, I feel that its rebound is not yet complete.
#plasma $XPL Say something from the heart. If the market continues to sustain, or even touches around 100,000, then Plasma still has a chance for a big rebound. The main issue is that it dropped too harshly in the previous period, with a high point retracting by 10 times without any rebound.

A lot of short-sell chips have already been gradually digested, and what remains is the severely trapped capital. This part of the capital will sell during the price increase, which will create resistance; therefore, the price won't suddenly surge.

You can position with a small amount, buy slowly, and observe. Personally, I feel that its rebound is not yet complete.
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$BERA Saying it from the heart, I'm really worried about the safety of the founder Smokey (heard someone wanted to cut it off), down 16 times in a year, with gains not exceeding 1 time. The weekly chart shows a rare 12 consecutive losses, and soon it will unlock over 10% of the total supply, with more than 2% unlocking every month thereafter. VCs investing in this blockchain should be nailed to the pillory. Now there are too many tokens that can't be bought, even $SOL $SUI needs to be cautious.
$BERA Saying it from the heart, I'm really worried about the safety of the founder Smokey (heard someone wanted to cut it off), down 16 times in a year, with gains not exceeding 1 time. The weekly chart shows a rare 12 consecutive losses, and soon it will unlock over 10% of the total supply, with more than 2% unlocking every month thereafter. VCs investing in this blockchain should be nailed to the pillory.

Now there are too many tokens that can't be bought, even $SOL $SUI needs to be cautious.
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Listen to my advice, if you can sell, sell quickly. $SOPH $ANIME Don't let it rise again, thinking the bull market is going to continue, the counterfeit market is coming again. $GIGGLE Smart people always sell when prices soar, while novice traders like to chase high prices and end up being severely stuck, forced to cut losses amid continuous declines, suffering heavy losses. It's a bear market, and cryptocurrency prices will bounce like a bouncing ball on stairs, a prelude to further declines after previously falling.
Listen to my advice, if you can sell, sell quickly. $SOPH $ANIME Don't let it rise again, thinking the bull market is going to continue, the counterfeit market is coming again. $GIGGLE

Smart people always sell when prices soar, while novice traders like to chase high prices and end up being severely stuck, forced to cut losses amid continuous declines, suffering heavy losses.

It's a bear market, and cryptocurrency prices will bounce like a bouncing ball on stairs, a prelude to further declines after previously falling.
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