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Now many people are asking me a question: Is the bull market over? This question cannot be answered by looking at prices alone; we must consider which cycle we are currently in. I often say that there are three overlapping cycles in the market: industry cycle, bull-bear alternating cycle, and new concept cycle.
If you can clearly see these three cycles, you will naturally know how the market will move next.
First, let’s talk about the new concept cycle, which in the past was referred to as the 'shanzhai season.' Looking back at this round of market, Bitcoin broke new highs and institutional buying was strong, but throughout the entire cryptocurrency market, shanzhai did not follow with the kind of 'massive surge' frenzy seen in the past.

Recently, a big scandal broke out at OKX.
In mid-November 2025, a user in the cryptocurrency circle bet his whole family's household registration book, accusing OKX's Web3 wallet of having a backdoor. The reason is that after an abnormal transfer of 50 ETH from his wallet, he concluded this after chatting for a day with some industry executives and auditors.

This matter wouldn't stir up much of a wave during a bull market, but coincidentally, it is at the current point of 'bull turning into bear', and everyone is very indignant, eager to find an emotional outlet. Thus, multiple parties fanned the flames, and OKX once again stands at the eye of the storm.
Perhaps considering the past public opinion management levels of major exchanges, this time Xu Mingxing personally stepped in and tweeted:

Preface

For the past six years, I have spent almost all my time on one thing: figuring out what kind of investment system can transcend cycles.
I have experienced traditional VC and the crypto market; I have studied corporate valuation and narrative logic; from deterministic betting to systematic trading, I finally realized that what truly transcends cycles is not technology, not models, but the understanding of 'certainty'.
All human investment systems are essentially trying to answer the same question: Where does future value come from?

Many people like to talk about trend trading, as if catching a trend can solve everything, but in my view, the so-called "trend trades" are mostly false propositions. The vast majority of people think they are holding trend trades, but in fact, they are just stop-loss trades forced out by resisting trades. They are not trading with the trend, but are lucky to have been spared by the market after making wrong stop-loss decisions.

True trend trading must be active.

It is not because the stop loss is too large that you are forced to hold on, but because you clearly know — the market is realizing a larger structure, and you choose to "restrain and realize" in the face of profit. It is not because you do not want to make money, but because you understand that this kind of profit should not be easily harvested. It is still growing. It belongs to the trend, not to emotions.

In the crypto world, mocking Ethereum seems like cheap sentiment. Some call it slow, expensive, bloated, and outdated. Some, like Andrew Kang, even declare, "Ethereum will become Luna 2.0." These assertions, while superficially rational, are actually a projection of the old world of finance. These people aren't blind to Ethereum's growth; they simply can't grasp how a system that maintains order without relying on a central authority can operate.
one,
Andrew Kang accused Tom Lee of lacking financial common sense in his "ETH bullish theory" - he said that the on-chain integration of RWAs and the adoption of stablecoins cannot directly lead to an increase in transaction fees, and Ethereum's revenue has not expanded year-on-year with transaction volume.

1. Why has the altcoin season disappeared?
In the past few years, almost everyone has been waiting for a signal: the altcoin season. But every time Bitcoin rises, the market starts to stir; every time a hot topic emerges, it quickly fizzles out. People say they are waiting for the altcoin season, but in reality, no one is clear about the true meaning of 'altcoin season.' It has never been just a matter of rises and falls, but rather the result of a macro fund cycle, a cyclical singularity driven by capital logic and narrative heat. Understanding this, one can see clearly: the altcoin season has not disappeared, it is just that the old altcoin season has died.

I think most people's first reaction to this title is definitely to say I'm just blowing smoke and creating anxiety. But this is real; the day before yesterday, in a small VC group, a very prominent friend shared this with me, and I said I would tell you guys so you would understand.
My friend said that one of his group members, a young person from a third or fourth-tier county, achieved a monthly income of 200,000 through Binance Alpha. How did he do it? This guy was originally working in a big city, but after participating in Binance Alpha activities for a while, he went back to his hometown.
After going back to my hometown, I contacted all my relatives and friends I could reach, opened more than seventy accounts in total, bought a bunch of phones, and just kept refreshing at home. When it was time to claim the air drops, I rode a little electric scooter, went door to door to scan faces and collect coins, and then delivered some fruits and small gifts. Just like that, I made 200,000 in a month.

Last night, I talked about my new investment earnings on the Virtuals platform, turning 20U into 2200U, and many fans messaged me on WeChat, asking how to do this new investment on Virtuals...
I know everyone is anxious, but please don't rush; this isn't a joke, I'm speaking very seriously. Many people like to ask, 'Stop talking so much, just tell me what to do (what to buy)'—but in reality, if you don’t understand the underlying logic, telling you what to do won’t help you succeed.
It's just like I have been recommending Binance Alpha; everyone said it’s simple and easy, but doing it ended up all wrong—either getting caught by a bot or not knowing how many points to brush, unable to calculate, ending up brushing more than earning, or knowing too early but not seeing far, and missing out entirely.

Yesterday, I asked a friend from the private directors' meeting if this round of Ethereum's rise was decent. He nodded modestly and said it was okay.
Then, feeling unsatisfied, I asked if this round of gains was driven by the Ethereum upgrade. Will it continue afterward? This question was well asked because it was very representative of the mistake.
The first core conclusion I have drawn from years of investing in cryptocurrencies and secondary investments is: in the investment market, the core is not prediction, but making plans.
The difference between prediction and planning is whether you are prepared.
For example, a couple of days ago, when the US and China were negotiating in Geneva, before the results came out, you judged whether the tariffs from both sides would rise or fall based on the situation and data; this is called a prediction. If you know that the US and China are negotiating on tariffs, and you think about what you should do if the tariffs change, this is called a 'plan' - the former focuses on 'what might happen in the future', while the latter focuses on 'how I should respond when it happens'.

Today (May 15, 2025), a new token $NXPC in the Binance Alpha zone has been airdropped, with eligible Binance users receiving a single airdrop reward of 400U+.

Adding up the 529U from the first two weeks of May, the current yield is 929U. Based on this trend, the conservative yield for May would be 2000U per account, leading to 6000U for a family of three, resulting in a monthly income of over 40,000.
Why? Because this is essentially Binance's monetization of liquidity monopoly. No other platform has the same bargaining power with project parties as Binance does. Because liquidity is monopolized by Binance, project parties lack alternative channels and can only accept it. Once they accept, Binance can monopolize even larger liquidity at almost zero cost, continuing to squeeze the survival space of other exchanges.

Ethereum (ETH) surged 40% in the last two days, directly hitting the trending searches on Douyin, ranking first. This is the only time for Ethereum or the entire cryptocurrency circle that news could break through the noise just with a 40% increase, but due to some issues, it was quickly controlled and removed from trending searches.

Many people want to know what has happened to Ethereum in the past few days. Well, actually, I know that what everyone really wants to know isn't what has happened in the past few days, but whether it's worth buying now, right?
I will talk to everyone from two perspectives.
First, it's the aspect everyone is most concerned about but is the least useful, which is why it has risen. There are many issues to consider.

Introduction
In recent years, blockchain technology and the cryptocurrency industry have continuously broken through technological boundaries, reshaping the global digital economy landscape at an unprecedented pace of innovation.
From the disruption of privacy and efficiency by zero-knowledge proofs (ZK) to the integration of real asset tokenization (RWA) with traditional finance, from the deconstruction of scalability by modular blockchains to the deep collaboration between AI and blockchain, the cryptocurrency industry is gradually moving from technological experimentation to large-scale application.
These emerging tracks not only carry the mission of technological innovation but also nurture profound changes in business models, governance paradigms, and social collaboration.

Note: My methodology for evaluating projects may differ from that of most KOLs; I do not discuss the feasibility of projects from a technical perspective. Instead, I analyze whether a project is worth investing in based on investment logic. After all, we are not technicians; we are investors looking for returns.
"Fully Homomorphic Encryption" (FHE) has been recognized for a long time, but I haven't delved into it. As a thesis-oriented investor, I think I can share my perspective and thought process upon encountering this new concept, hoping it can be helpful to everyone.
I am not a cryptography expert, so the first time I heard about Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE) was from an article discussing FHE technology details by Portail Ventures around mid-last year. Even at that time, I didn't pay much attention to FHE, but last month, Vitalik reposted his related article from 2020 on Twitter.

During the May Day holiday, I went back to my hometown, originally just to gather with a few friends. Unexpectedly, a giant baby friend was brought along—he is a second-generation demolisher he met while studying in Beijing, who came back with him to experience the local culture.
My friends know that I am involved in the cryptocurrency space, and when the topic came up, the giant baby brought by my friend spoke up, saying, 'Ah Kong, I've missed a great opportunity! I originally wanted to sell my homestead land to buy coins, but I wasn’t allowed to sell.'
Hearing him say this, I feel that our country really has a sense of proportion—like the idea of not allowing ordinary people into the cryptocurrency space makes a lot of sense. What ordinary people say is incorrect; I would call it a socialist giant baby.

When will the altcoin season come? This is the most concerning question for all crypto users.
Today, I will discuss the reasons why the altcoin season arises in the crypto industry's development history and past analyses, why the current altcoin season is collapsing, and the conditions needed for the altcoin season to return.
Many are looking forward to an altcoin season bull market, but most do not understand what an altcoin season is. Here, I will give a very blunt definition: a market with a sufficiently long duration and enough tokens rising.
Because only such an altcoin season can create opportunities for retail investors to profit. Just a few projects fluctuating do not constitute an altcoin bull market because retail investors cannot find opportunities to seize.

The crypto circle is the first place to easily become a deity. From small trading teachers to top industry giants, as long as you help friends make money, you are a god.
Of course, this god-status will turn into a dog tag when it causes people to lose money—only to be exchanged for a god card when it makes money next time. Everyone knows this situation is wrong, and deep down, they all laugh at such retail behavior.
But when it comes down to it, it inevitably turns into 'the version of yourself that you hate the most', and you remain unaware. This is how the entire network currently feels about Ethereum and Vitalik.

I saw a piece of news this morning that the blockchain storage protocol Walrus completed a financing round of $140 million, with the main investor being Standard Crypto, and notable co-investors including A16Z and Franklin Templeton's digital asset division.
The apparent financing method is very classical, which is Walrus selling tokens ($WAL), with a total supply valuation of approximately $2 billion. Many might not have this concept. The blockchain storage protocol Walrus is a protocol project built on the Sui public chain; at the time of Sui's financing, its valuation was also $2 billion.
Walrus, who exactly is going to take over? To be honest, since this year, I’ve developed a kind of physiological aversion to assessing new projects. This aversion comes from the disparity between valuations and market values—what kind of thing can just open its mouth and have such a high market value? Do you deserve it? I wonder what everyone thinks; I personally feel it doesn’t deserve it.

Ethereum's earliest headquarters was the spaceship house in Switzerland. On the day of the college entrance examination for domestic students in 2014, Vitalik and the leadership of Ethereum chose this place for a full internal meeting. Everyone was discussing:
Will we be whores or set up a figurehead in the future?
That day-long meeting formally announced that the future largest public chain leader in the crypto industry would not act like a whore, and the 'Eight Kings' who created Ethereum would fall apart.
According to founder Vitalik's recollection: "I was trying to shirk responsibility throughout the process because I really didn't want to take on the responsibility. In the end, I had to clear out some people."