Probabilities of interest rate cuts at the FED in the next FOMC meeting drop from 20% yesterday to 6% today after the employment report signals that the labor market is still sustainable.🚨
Hello Traders! Stay tuned for the economic news from the USA that will be released today at 10:30 AM (Brasilia time). Payroll usually impacts the markets with volatility, including in crypto!
Binance has carried out another conversion process in the SAFU Fund
Acquiring 4225 $BTC for ~$300 MILLION.🔥 In total, the "support" fund that Binance announced it would buy $1 BILLION in bitcoin has currently accumulated 10455 BTC worth $716 MILLION. More purchases should arise in the coming days. #Binance #SAFU
The selloff from last week did not come from old holders. It came from those who just entered. On-chain data shows that investors from the 2025 and 2026 cohorts realized about $1.5 billion per day in LOSSES, a level comparable to the bottom in June 2022. This is rookie capitulation. Those who bought recently were forced to sell during the drop.
Those who have held BTC for a longer time have practically not moved. This pattern is recurring in bear cycles. Tops and long sideways movements attract new buyers. The first strong correction expelled these participants.
Real inflation has already fallen. The Fed just hasn't admitted it yet. 🚨
Alternative data like that from Truflation shows CPI running well below the official number, with a history of anticipating BLS movements by 45 to 70 days. This creates a clear mismatch. Inflation is slowing down in the real world while monetary policy remains restrictive. It is in this type of delay that the Fed tends to make mistakes. The market is already beginning to price in that, with the change in leadership at the Federal Reserve and the possible entry of a chair more aligned with growth and financial stability, the next regime is one of interest rate cuts, not tightening.
Yesterday we experienced a drop of 14% in a day. This was the largest daily movement since November 2022 when FTX imploded.
But the difference is brutal. FTX was a systemic fraud. Now there is no single catalyst, but a set of factors.
Bitcoin ETFs also had the largest trading volume since the launch in 2024.
More than $2 BILLION in leveraged positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours.
The current mechanics are different from previous crashes. No hack. No fraud. No systemic collapse. Just technical deleveraging in a structurally fragile market.
Yesterday we experienced the highest accumulated volumes of net losses being realized on the Bitcoin network since 2022.
In comparative terms, we only had this level of capitulation when TERRA-LUNA collapsed and the DeFi market fell alongside it.
After that, we only had such a high level of realized losses during the FTX collapse, showing that the current levels of capitulation have only been seen in advanced stages of previous bear markets.
The Fear & Greed Index reached level 11 (Extreme Fear) today.
What makes this data fascinating, from an institutional perspective, is the scenario: $BTC is holding the region of $69,000, a level that historically represented euphoria, not panic.
We are facing a brutal divergence between price and sentiment. This is my reading: Leverage Massacre: This fear did not arise from a change in fundamentals, but from physical pain (in the wallet). In the last 24 hours, $538.71 million in positions were liquidated, decimating more than 133,000 traders who were heavily operating on the buying side.