刘禹锡的币记本

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$GIGGLE completely just a wave
This one is at most giggle—pulling the needle up to 70
Rely on hard-grinding to hitch a ride on CZ’s big brother’s hype to pump the market
It’s bound to not last
Waiting for the day it’s time to offload
And also, everyone can join me in placing recurring investments in $COINB $CRCLB
It’s way better than BTC; I got in on Friday when there was a big drop

Today two major, long-established exchanges announced closures one after another. In fact, it’s not a signal that the bear market is about to hit bottom.
Today BitMEX and BitMart both released statements announcing they would gradually shut down their trading services. After the news came out, many brothers didn’t feel very panicked.
You can compare it: in 2018, when exchanges collapsed and projects blew up; in 2022, when LUNA and FTX collapsed—everyone lost confidence in crypto.
Compared with the most hopeless market conditions of past years, many people still believe in crypto’s future.
What’s truly frightening about a bear market isn’t the sharp sell-off—it’s when nobody believes in the future.
But classic “buy-the-dip” signals from exchange closures aren’t completely useless; at least, DCA can be turned on.
Brothers, you can start paying attention to BTC, ETH, and also high-quality stocks. Anyway, Binance can also buy stocks directly now#BitMart将于2027年停止运营

I’ve been thinking about a question today: if Bitcoin really does drop to $50,000 next, is it better to buy the coin directly, or to buy MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) stock instead?

After thinking all afternoon, my answer is: buy Bitcoin—don’t touch MicroStrategy.

Why? Let me give you the simplest analogy:
Buying Bitcoin is like directly buying a solid, real piece of digital gold.
Buying MicroStrategy is like buying a company stock that borrows money to hoard gold. This company currently holds more than 840,000 Bitcoins, with an average cost of $75,000. If Bitcoin drops to $50,000, it’s already down more than 30%.

And the most critical point is that MicroStrategy has recently opened the door to “allow selling coins.” Its stock price has also fallen even below the value of the Bitcoins it holds (a 40% discount). That means even if Bitcoin rebounds, its stock may not keep up, because the market is afraid it will sell coins to repay debts—and is worried about a blow-up.

When you buy Bitcoin, you only need to worry about price going up or down. When you buy MicroStrategy, besides price, you also have to worry about whether the company will run into trouble, whether management will mess things up, and whether it might be forced to liquidate. I don’t think these extra risks are worth gambling on.

Some people say MicroStrategy has high leverage, so when it rises it can move more aggressively. But once the left foot kicks the right foot and sends you into a death spiral, it can happen very quickly.

So my choice is very straightforward: if it hits $50,000, buy Bitcoin directly.

Let me also share my view of the market right now. At the $60,000 level, I think the bear market is pretty much near the bottom. The people who should have run have already run, and the positions that were going to blow up have blown up for the most part. Meanwhile, big money is quietly accumulating. Next, it’s likely to be a frustrating period of sideways movement—maybe a couple of months, maybe longer. But as long as you can hold on and don’t panic-sell, and you get through this boring stretch, dawn won’t be far off. This is not a time for panic; it’s actually a time to get energized.
#微策略要卖比特币

Binance Wallet's simple quiz event won't deduct alpha points, airdropping around 166 PULT tokens

Event Steps
1. Go to Binance Wallet → Discover → Top banner, as shown in image p2
2. The first few tasks involve following and retweeting posts on Twitter; make sure your Twitter account is over 60 days old with more than 20 followers
3. Finally, the answers are C, B, C

Try to complete as many tasks as you can; it won't deduct points. The spots are drawn, with a total of 10,000 slots available, so you can try with multiple accounts.

A few days ago, I posted that the current position of SpaceX isn't worth chasing, even mentioning that if it keeps pumping, the cost-effectiveness of low-leverage shorts would get better and better.

Looking back now, the market has started to play out that logic.

But I want to say that I think this story might not be over yet. The valuation for SpaceX is still astronomical, and the market isn't valuing it based on earnings, but rather on Mars, AI, Starlink, and Musk's personal brand.

The issue is that while the story can be told indefinitely, the chips won't be locked forever. As a large amount of early shares and employee stock begin to flow, the higher the price, the more it will trigger profit-taking demand. And when the market cap is already at the level of the world's top companies, every step up requires massive new funds to take the bag.

So for me, around 160 is still not a position worth chasing long. Of course, I won't mindlessly go all-in on shorts; I'm still holding onto the short position from the previous 200.

The biggest risk with this stock has never been the fundamentals, but rather the sentiment. But if I had to choose, I still prefer to stand on the bear side, waiting with low leverage for the valuation to revert.

The market can be crazy for a long time, but it can rarely stay crazy forever.
$SPCX $SPCXB

$ASTER buckle up and wait for takeoff, just now Xu Mingxing personally stepped in to publicly question the relationship between Aster and CZ, believing that Aster is essentially replicating the Hyperliquid model but with a more 'compliant' packaging.

But interestingly, I dug through the history.

Previously, Xu Mingxing also publicly attacked Binance Life, and what happened?

Binance Life not only survived but instead surged to become a phenomenon in the Chinese MEME space.

The market is sometimes just like that.

When a project starts getting named by top figures and when two major camps begin to throw shade at each other, it indicates that it has already gained influence.

For Aster, the greatest value right now might not even be the product itself, but the buzz it generates.

What the crypto space lacks the most has never been projects, but attention.

If both sides continue to clash from a distance and keep generating hype, then Aster is likely to become one of the most controversial targets in this round of market discussions.

Honestly, I really can't figure out this position with SpaceX.

Right now, its market cap has surged to nearly $2.8 trillion, about to surpass Amazon, but the issue is Amazon pulls in around $600-$700 billion a year, while SpaceX only raked in about $18.6 billion last year.

Even crazier, in 2025, SpaceX is projected to lose nearly $5 billion. A money-losing company being pumped up to become one of the top five companies by market cap globally feels like a scene straight out of the dot-com bubble.

A lot of folks are hyping up Starlink, Mars, AI, and Musk, but if you take a close look at the financials, the only real moneymaker is Starlink. The rocket business is still burning cash, and xAI is a real money pit, where they might earn $300 million but spend $600 million.

The market is valuing SpaceX at nearly 100 times its sales ratio, which is more exaggerated than cash cows like Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon. To put it bluntly, buying SpaceX right now is less about performance and more about faith.

Of course, a bubble doesn’t mean it’ll pop right away; we’ve all seen how wild the Musk hype can get. But if the price keeps soaring, especially above $200, I think the risk-reward for shorting with low leverage is starting to look appealing.

Remember, I'm talking about low leverage.

Because the biggest risk with this stock isn’t a poor fundamental; it’s that we just don’t know how long the market can stay crazy.

When others are greedy, I might not be fearful, but when a company with less than $20 billion in revenue and a $5 billion loss gets pumped up to nearly $3 trillion in market cap, I definitely won’t chase the highs.

$GRASS Can we still trade in the second season? I think we can.
Honestly, Grass has lost a lot of its hype now, especially since it's been dragging on for so long without launching the second season.

During the first season airdrop, I set up three rigs and made $1000.
Now that the second season is taking forever, I believe an airdrop is around the corner.
So I set it back up today because there’s really no cost or barrier to entry.

Grass is one of those truly "set it and forget it" types.
It doesn’t eat up GPU, CPU, or mine, and it doesn't interfere with gaming or daily tasks; all it needs is your idle bandwidth. Just let your computer do its thing while it runs in the background.

A lot of people got burned out by the long wait and have left due to the delay of the second season.

Currently, the second season points are still accumulating.

If there are further rewards to be allocated, the competition pressure for those who stick around will actually be much lower than expected.

How to participate:
1. Register for a Grass official account.
2. Use a browser extension or the corresponding device app to run it in the background.
I think using the app is better because it has time multiplier bonuses.

You don't need to bypass any firewall to register, but make sure you don't use a VPN while running it, or else you won't earn any rewards.
This should be one of the lowest barrier airdrop projects out there. Honestly, it doesn't affect my computer usage and requires no capital investment. Running it is better than missing out.

Registration link:
https://app.grass.io/register?referralCode=P-4VhCWixhhlPca

Binance US stocks yield farming, the more accounts, the more you earn, easy 10U low guarantee + shared, a total of 500,000 spots available.

This time the prize pool is 5 million USDC. As long as you complete the required trades, everyone can secure 10U, plenty of spots, no need to rush, take your time to operate.

Step-by-step operation process:

1. First, update your Binance APP to the latest version, find the language settings, and switch to traditional Chinese. If you don’t switch, you’ll hit a regional restriction and won’t be able to access the event 点击报名活动.

2. Open the event link and click the yellow【Explore Now】to sign up. Once registered, the button will change to【Learn More】. Seeing this means you’ve successfully signed up.

3. After signing up, head over to the US stocks section, search for stocks like Nvidia NVDA, and once the US stock market opens, just buy over 200U worth of US stocks or ETFs at market price.

4. As long as you’re an old user registered before the event, completing your first 200U US stock trade will automatically distribute rewards at the end of the event, with a max of 10U token vouchers per person.

When I posted yesterday, a lot of folks thought I was overthinking it.

At that time, the market showed a few signals:
BlackRock moved 929 BTC out.
36,449 ETH flowed into exchanges.
MicroStrategy made a rare sell of 32 BTC.

Many people thought these were minor events.
But looking back now:
$BTC 63000 dollars
$ETH 1700 dollars

The market ultimately chose to go down.

For seasoned players, the drop itself isn’t scary.

What’s truly frightening is the duration of a bear market.

In a bull market, doubling your investment in a month is pretty normal.

In a bear market, you might not see any decent action for a year.

Many people lose money not because they bought wrong, but because they keep averaging down and trying to catch the bottom during a prolonged decline, eventually exhausting their capital.

So if a bear market really hits, I think there are a few points that are more important than predicting the bottom:

✅ Don’t go all in

Always keep cash on hand; a 50% dip isn’t necessarily the bottom, and a 70% drop doesn’t guarantee an end.

✅ Don’t rush to go all-in catching the bottom

No one can perfectly buy at the lowest point; scaling in is always safer than a one-time bet.

✅ Stay away from high leverage

In a bull market, leverage is an amplifier, in a bear market, it’s a meat grinder.

✅ Preserve your principal

Opportunities are always there; the next bull market will definitely come, but only if you have chips left to play by then.

A lot of newcomers often see a bear market as a disaster.

But for those who truly believe in crypto long-term, a bear market is actually the best accumulation phase for the coming years.

Don’t rush to prove you’re right.

Don’t rush to grab that last penny.

Just survive.

Because in a bull market, what you earn is courage, while in a bear market, what you earn is patience.

When the next rally kicks off, the market often rewards not the smartest, but those who stick around the table. #美众院投票叫停对伊朗军事行动

Strategy MicroStrategy suddenly got noticed for transferring BTC to exchanges. Although there was no actual sell-off in the end and the related transfers were reversed, a lot of folks started to worry: what if one day they really do sell?

This got me thinking about a hard truth many don't want to face: over the years, MicroStrategy has practically become Bitcoin's biggest faith advocate.

Issuing bonds to buy coins, raising funds to buy coins, and with stock prices increasing, they keep buying more coins.
In a bull market, this strategy seems almost invincible, even leading many to believe that MicroStrategy only buys, never sells.

But the capital markets have never had eternal buyers.
Now, MicroStrategy has hoarded over 840,000 BTC, and the scale is only getting bigger. With debt levels increasing, market conditions changing, and potential operational needs arising, selling Bitcoin isn't a question of if, but when. Everyone studies how many more BTC MicroStrategy can buy every day, yet very few consider what happens if they start to liquidate. This recent transfer to the exchange temporarily boosted the odds of MicroStrategy selling Bitcoin by 2026 to over 90% on Polymarket.

It's important to remember that one of the main forces driving Bitcoin's price up is the continuous influx of new buyers. When the biggest buyer turns into the biggest seller, the narrative shifts in a whole new direction.

Many believe MicroStrategy is Bitcoin's biggest backbone.

But from another angle, it could also represent the greatest potential risk in the future.

Because what supports price increases is never faith, but real cash flow.

When the buying logic reaches its limit, the market will eventually have to face the day of selling, and at that point, $MSTR #比特币储备公司面临结构挑战

Binance Wallet's "Prediction Market Experience Guarantee" event is back, allowing each user to offset a loss of five bucks and directly boost the odds.
It’s basically free cash for new users! 🤣

You can find the entry in the Binance Wallet homepage banner; make sure to use Binance's non-custodial wallet after signing up.

Here’s a quick summary of the rules:
Your first prediction order after signing up counts.
If your first order takes a loss, they’ll cover you up to $5.
Even if your first order makes a profit, there’s no further coverage.
This is only for new users who haven’t participated in the last two rounds.

It’s like the official team giving you a safety net to try out Predict.
If you win, you pocket the profits; if you lose, you still have some backup.
This kind of event is essentially low-risk yield farming.
$BNB $ETH

Have you guys ever been liquidated or made a killing with these meme coins? Let's check out the current status of these coins. FOLKS: Historical high around 49, low at 3.5, early on peaked close to 13.4x, now at 1.2. PIPPIN: Contract pumped to nearly 80x during the spike, now it's dropped from 0.9 to 0.02. TRADOOR: Pumped from 0.7u to 10u, about 17x increase. RAVE: During the bull phase peaked at around 113x, historical high about 28.3, low at 0.25.

Haven't finished the stats, don't want to anymore. Just check it out yourself; you might find some of those once-pumped meme coins that are now back at a favorable price point. Buying some and waiting for a rebound is a pretty solid strategy.

A lot of folks are still viewing HYPE as a 'meme coin', but in reality, it's starting to look more and more like a true heavyweight asset in the exchange scene.

Right now, HYPE's market cap is hovering around $16 billion, with an FDV exceeding $60 billion.
In the entire on-chain perp DEX arena, it's firmly in the top tier.

And the key isn't just the price; it's the actual profitability.
HyperLiquid isn't one of those projects that relies on storytelling to pump its price; there's real trading happening on the platform.
With a 24h trading volume consistently in the billions or even higher, more and more whales, market makers, and professional traders are getting involved.

Many like to compare it to new DEXs like Aster, but I think the logic is pretty straightforward:

In the exchange game, it's really a winner-takes-all situation.

Just like in the early days of Binance.
Countless platforms have emerged to challenge Binance, but in the end, it was clear that Binance remained king.

The platform with the deepest liquidity attracts the most users;
the more users, the more aggressive the fees they rake in;
the more they earn, the faster the ecosystem and product updates come.

This creates a positive feedback loop.

HyperLiquid is already giving off that vibe.

Saw my friends rocking their pizza day merch this morning, really feeling a bit jelly.
Then this afternoon, I got my own pizza day merch delivered via SF Express.
Didn’t even have to fill out any info in the form this time, pretty unexpected.
Big shoutout to Binance, wishing everyone a happy pizza day! May you all hit those moonshots and cash out big!
Thumbs up for that good crypto vibe #披萨节14周年

Binance is really ahead of the game this time.

Many folks haven't realized that this isn't just an ordinary new contract launch; it's the first time in the crypto space that we're starting to 'swallow' the traditional primary market.

Binance has officially launched the SPCXUSDT Pre-IPO perpetual contract, with the underlying asset being Elon Musk's SpaceX.
Users can trade directly with USDT, with a maximum leverage of 5x, which essentially allows for early trading on SpaceX's IPO expectations.

The key point is that in the past, when people traded US stocks, they could only play pre-market and after-hours. Now, Binance is giving you a market for the 'pre-listing' phase.

In traditional finance, the real money-making phase has always been before the IPO.
By the time regular investors can buy in, the valuation has often already increased several times.

Why do firms like Sequoia, a16z, and SoftBank manage to rake in the biggest profits?

Because they can get in early on the primary market. Meanwhile, regular retail investors mostly end up picking up the pieces in the secondary market. Global users, 24/7 trading, USDT for uniform settlement, and super high-speed sentiment spread.

So you'll notice that more and more traditional assets are starting to move onto the blockchain.

First, it was the BTC ETF.
Then, the tokenization of US stocks.
Next up is RWA.
Now even Pre-IPO is starting to go on-chain.

What’s most intense about Binance this time is that they’re not just giving you a 'stock token.' They’re directly providing the market with 'pre-listing sentiment pricing.'

What does that mean?

It means that even before SpaceX officially IPOs, global capital can already speculate on its valuation. This is starting to resemble a 'proto-chain Nasdaq.'
If this model proves successful, what could follow?
OpenAI
xAI
Anthropic
#在币安广场聊传统金融
And even in the future, all the hot unicorns might first form an expectation market in the crypto space.
At that point, crypto won't just be about trading coins anymore.
It will be genuinely competing with traditional capital markets for pricing power.

Many people have been underestimating Binance.
But if you look back, you'll see that:

IEO was something they pioneered.
Launchpad became a global model thanks to them.
They scaled up the stablecoin trading ecosystem.
Now they're even getting into US stock Pre-IPO.

While others are still figuring out how to keep up with regulations, Binance has already started defining what the next-generation trading market looks like.
No wonder they’re the number one exchange in the universe. #SpaceX列全球第七大比特币持仓公司实体
#Chatting about traditional finance at Binance Square