吾乃天之饺子
121 Posts
吾乃天之饺子
Report
Block User
每日分享比特币和以太坊行情走势，专注市场解读与策略分享。清晰策略·稳健思路·严控风险，做你市场里的可靠伙伴。愿你在数字资产世界里，从容、自由、有光。🌸
13 Following
203 Followers
69 Liked
Posts
·
--
🔥Non-farm payrolls released with impact | September Fed expectations completely reversed
Tonight, US August non-farm payrolls came in at 162,000, far above the expected 56,000, and the previous figure was also revised up.
The jobs data blew past expectations, and the market immediately pushed the probability of a September rate hike above 60%, while rate-cut expectations cooled sharply.
Market reaction:
▪ The dollar and US Treasury yields surged
▪ Gold plunged $70 in the short term, breaking below 4400
▪ Bitcoin came under pressure as well, with risk assets broadly under pressure
Simple logic:
Strong labor-market resilience and the risk of a rebound in inflation mean the Fed is likely to lean hawkish. A stronger dollar weighs on both gold and cryptocurrencies.
What to watch next:
The FOMC meeting in the early hours of September 17 will provide the latest policy signals through the dot plot, and market volatility may expand further.
For market information sharing only, not investment advice.#美国8月非农数据今日公布
🔥Non-farm payrolls released with impact | September Fed expectations completely reversed
Tonight, US August non-farm payrolls came in at 162,000, far above the expected 56,000, and the previous figure was also revised up.
The jobs data blew past expectations, and the market immediately pushed the probability of a September rate hike above 60%, while rate-cut expectations cooled sharply.
Market reaction:
▪ The dollar and US Treasury yields surged
▪ Gold plunged $70 in the short term, breaking below 4400
▪ Bitcoin came under pressure as well, with risk assets broadly under pressure
Simple logic:
Strong labor-market resilience and the risk of a rebound in inflation mean the Fed is likely to lean hawkish. A stronger dollar weighs on both gold and cryptocurrencies.
What to watch next:
The FOMC meeting in the early hours of September 17 will provide the latest policy signals through the dot plot, and market volatility may expand further.
For market information sharing only, not investment advice.#美国8月非农数据今日公布
Tonight, US August non-farm payrolls came in at 162,000, far above the expected 56,000, and the previous figure was also revised up.
The jobs data blew past expectations, and the market immediately pushed the probability of a September rate hike above 60%, while rate-cut expectations cooled sharply.
Market reaction:
▪ The dollar and US Treasury yields surged
▪ Gold plunged $70 in the short term, breaking below 4400
▪ Bitcoin came under pressure as well, with risk assets broadly under pressure
Simple logic:
Strong labor-market resilience and the risk of a rebound in inflation mean the Fed is likely to lean hawkish. A stronger dollar weighs on both gold and cryptocurrencies.
What to watch next:
The FOMC meeting in the early hours of September 17 will provide the latest policy signals through the dot plot, and market volatility may expand further.
For market information sharing only, not investment advice.#美国8月非农数据今日公布
1
161
·
--
Bitcoin Market Analysis｜Long vs. Short Tug-of-War, Waiting for Directional Breakout
Recently, $BTC has entered a period of consolidation. After a big rally, capital divergence has increased, and macro news, ETF fund flows, and on-chain holdings all jointly influence short-term price action.
1. Macro Perspective
The Federal Reserve’s policy expectations remain the main storyline. Inflation data and remarks from officials will directly affect U.S. Treasury yields, which then transmit to the crypto market.
When Treasury yields fall, it is typically bullish for gold and Bitcoin; when yields rebound, they tend to suppress risk assets.
2. Observing ETF Flows
Sustained net inflows into spot ETFs reflect the institutional stance. If you see consecutive outflows, be alert to the risk of a pullback in the current phase.
Institutional capital follows medium-to-long-term logic, but in the short term, market direction will still be affected by futures leverage.
3. Technical Setup
1. Support zone: , this is the key defensive area for this round of rebound. If it holds, the consolidation structure remains unchanged; if it breaks down decisively, the market weakens.
2. Resistance zone: , you need trading volume to confirm and hold above it before upside space can open.
3. Indicators: The 4-hour MACD and RSI have not shown a clear one-sided signal, suggesting a range-bound market waiting for a breakout window.
4. Futures market: Watch the liquidation zones. Large rallies and selloffs are often accompanied by batch liquidations that amplify volatility.
4. Practical Trading Ideas
1. In a range-bound market, it’s not suitable to heavily bet on direction. Prefer light positioning and waiting, or building positions in batches.
2. Set a stop-loss. Don’t hold losses by force.
3. Focus on key watch items: inflation data, the Fed’s stance, and changes in ETF fund flows.
Opportunities are always out there in the market—prioritize capital safety.
#比特币守稳78000美元上方
Bitcoin Market Analysis｜Long vs. Short Tug-of-War, Waiting for Directional Breakout
Recently, $BTC has entered a period of consolidation. After a big rally, capital divergence has increased, and macro news, ETF fund flows, and on-chain holdings all jointly influence short-term price action.
1. Macro Perspective
The Federal Reserve’s policy expectations remain the main storyline. Inflation data and remarks from officials will directly affect U.S. Treasury yields, which then transmit to the crypto market.
When Treasury yields fall, it is typically bullish for gold and Bitcoin; when yields rebound, they tend to suppress risk assets.
2. Observing ETF Flows
Sustained net inflows into spot ETFs reflect the institutional stance. If you see consecutive outflows, be alert to the risk of a pullback in the current phase.
Institutional capital follows medium-to-long-term logic, but in the short term, market direction will still be affected by futures leverage.
3. Technical Setup
1. Support zone: , this is the key defensive area for this round of rebound. If it holds, the consolidation structure remains unchanged; if it breaks down decisively, the market weakens.
2. Resistance zone: , you need trading volume to confirm and hold above it before upside space can open.
3. Indicators: The 4-hour MACD and RSI have not shown a clear one-sided signal, suggesting a range-bound market waiting for a breakout window.
4. Futures market: Watch the liquidation zones. Large rallies and selloffs are often accompanied by batch liquidations that amplify volatility.
4. Practical Trading Ideas
1. In a range-bound market, it’s not suitable to heavily bet on direction. Prefer light positioning and waiting, or building positions in batches.
2. Set a stop-loss. Don’t hold losses by force.
3. Focus on key watch items: inflation data, the Fed’s stance, and changes in ETF fund flows.
Opportunities are always out there in the market—prioritize capital safety.
#比特币守稳78000美元上方
Recently, $BTC has entered a period of consolidation. After a big rally, capital divergence has increased, and macro news, ETF fund flows, and on-chain holdings all jointly influence short-term price action.
1. Macro Perspective
The Federal Reserve’s policy expectations remain the main storyline. Inflation data and remarks from officials will directly affect U.S. Treasury yields, which then transmit to the crypto market.
When Treasury yields fall, it is typically bullish for gold and Bitcoin; when yields rebound, they tend to suppress risk assets.
2. Observing ETF Flows
Sustained net inflows into spot ETFs reflect the institutional stance. If you see consecutive outflows, be alert to the risk of a pullback in the current phase.
Institutional capital follows medium-to-long-term logic, but in the short term, market direction will still be affected by futures leverage.
3. Technical Setup
1. Support zone: , this is the key defensive area for this round of rebound. If it holds, the consolidation structure remains unchanged; if it breaks down decisively, the market weakens.
2. Resistance zone: , you need trading volume to confirm and hold above it before upside space can open.
3. Indicators: The 4-hour MACD and RSI have not shown a clear one-sided signal, suggesting a range-bound market waiting for a breakout window.
4. Futures market: Watch the liquidation zones. Large rallies and selloffs are often accompanied by batch liquidations that amplify volatility.
4. Practical Trading Ideas
1. In a range-bound market, it’s not suitable to heavily bet on direction. Prefer light positioning and waiting, or building positions in batches.
2. Set a stop-loss. Don’t hold losses by force.
3. Focus on key watch items: inflation data, the Fed’s stance, and changes in ETF fund flows.
Opportunities are always out there in the market—prioritize capital safety.
#比特币守稳78000美元上方
122
·
--
Evening Highlights｜PCE inflation is about to be released—how should gold and BTC be viewed?At 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, the U.S. will release the July PCE price index.
This is the core inflation indicator the Federal Reserve cares most about, and it will directly affect the September rate decision.
Based on prior CPI and PPI, there is currently no signal of an acceleration in inflation. However, core PCE has been above the 2% inflation target for 65 consecutive months. The stubborn inflation problem has yet to be resolved.
Market consensus
Overall PCE year-on-year: 3.6%
Core PCE year-on-year: 3.3% (unchanged from the previous month)
Core PCE month-on-month: 0.2%
Three scenario simulations
🔴 Data above expectations (inflation rebound)
Inflation is stubborn; the market will re-price the probability of a rate hike in September
Evening Highlights｜PCE inflation is about to be released—how should gold and BTC be viewed?
At 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, the U.S. will release the July PCE price index.
This is the core inflation indicator the Federal Reserve cares most about, and it will directly affect the September rate decision.
Based on prior CPI and PPI, there is currently no signal of an acceleration in inflation. However, core PCE has been above the 2% inflation target for 65 consecutive months. The stubborn inflation problem has yet to be resolved.
Market consensus
Overall PCE year-on-year: 3.6%
Core PCE year-on-year: 3.3% (unchanged from the previous month)
Core PCE month-on-month: 0.2%
Three scenario simulations
🔴 Data above expectations (inflation rebound)
Inflation is stubborn; the market will re-price the probability of a rate hike in September
This is the core inflation indicator the Federal Reserve cares most about, and it will directly affect the September rate decision.
Based on prior CPI and PPI, there is currently no signal of an acceleration in inflation. However, core PCE has been above the 2% inflation target for 65 consecutive months. The stubborn inflation problem has yet to be resolved.
Market consensus
Overall PCE year-on-year: 3.6%
Core PCE year-on-year: 3.3% (unchanged from the previous month)
Core PCE month-on-month: 0.2%
Three scenario simulations
🔴 Data above expectations (inflation rebound)
Inflation is stubborn; the market will re-price the probability of a rate hike in September
1
165
·
--
Besant’s policy dilemma: the original plan was to expand U.S. Treasury buybacks to push down yields, but the outcome backfires.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is approaching 4.75%, with a risk of breaching the 5% red line.
Gold: a dual tug-of-war
Fiscal turmoil provides safe-haven support, but as yields climb above 5%, higher interest rates would also suppress gold prices—so bulls and bears keep battling.
Bitcoin: a risk asset
Higher U.S. Treasury yields mean tighter dollar liquidity, which is bearish in the medium term; only a debt-crisis panic would likely trigger a risk-off buying wave.
Memory chips (Hynix / Micron)
High Treasury yields suppress valuations for tech growth and would limit the upside space for any rebound; a better environment will likely come only when rate-cut expectations build.
Key to watch: whether the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield can move toward 5%, and the Treasury Secretary’s subsequent public remarks.
Market rumors create big disturbances—don’t let yourself get pulled into reacting to short-term price action.
Information sharing only; not investment advice. Trading involves risk.
Besant’s policy dilemma: the original plan was to expand U.S. Treasury buybacks to push down yields, but the outcome backfires.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is approaching 4.75%, with a risk of breaching the 5% red line.
Gold: a dual tug-of-war
Fiscal turmoil provides safe-haven support, but as yields climb above 5%, higher interest rates would also suppress gold prices—so bulls and bears keep battling.
Bitcoin: a risk asset
Higher U.S. Treasury yields mean tighter dollar liquidity, which is bearish in the medium term; only a debt-crisis panic would likely trigger a risk-off buying wave.
Memory chips (Hynix / Micron)
High Treasury yields suppress valuations for tech growth and would limit the upside space for any rebound; a better environment will likely come only when rate-cut expectations build.
Key to watch: whether the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield can move toward 5%, and the Treasury Secretary’s subsequent public remarks.
Market rumors create big disturbances—don’t let yourself get pulled into reacting to short-term price action.
Information sharing only; not investment advice. Trading involves risk.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is approaching 4.75%, with a risk of breaching the 5% red line.
Gold: a dual tug-of-war
Fiscal turmoil provides safe-haven support, but as yields climb above 5%, higher interest rates would also suppress gold prices—so bulls and bears keep battling.
Bitcoin: a risk asset
Higher U.S. Treasury yields mean tighter dollar liquidity, which is bearish in the medium term; only a debt-crisis panic would likely trigger a risk-off buying wave.
Memory chips (Hynix / Micron)
High Treasury yields suppress valuations for tech growth and would limit the upside space for any rebound; a better environment will likely come only when rate-cut expectations build.
Key to watch: whether the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield can move toward 5%, and the Treasury Secretary’s subsequent public remarks.
Market rumors create big disturbances—don’t let yourself get pulled into reacting to short-term price action.
Information sharing only; not investment advice. Trading involves risk.
160
·
--
May's shocking retail data exceeds expectations! Tonight's Fed decision will determine the fate.U.S. retail sales data for May just dropped, blowing past all market expectations:
Month-over-month surge of 0.9%, April data revised up to 0.4%, with 11 out of 13 major retail categories on the rise—consumer resilience is off the charts.
1. Gas prices drove gas station sales up a whopping 3.4%, and excluding energy, retail still saw a 0.7% increase; domestic demand is definitely heating up.
2. Motor vehicle sales increased by 1.2% month-over-month, marking the largest jump in nearly a year, with durable goods consumption also picking up.
3. Even in a high oil price and high inflation environment, people are still willing to spend, which indirectly indicates that inflation won't be dropping quickly.
What does this mean for the market? Bulls and bears are clear as day.
May's shocking retail data exceeds expectations! Tonight's Fed decision will determine the fate.
U.S. retail sales data for May just dropped, blowing past all market expectations:
Month-over-month surge of 0.9%, April data revised up to 0.4%, with 11 out of 13 major retail categories on the rise—consumer resilience is off the charts.
1. Gas prices drove gas station sales up a whopping 3.4%, and excluding energy, retail still saw a 0.7% increase; domestic demand is definitely heating up.
2. Motor vehicle sales increased by 1.2% month-over-month, marking the largest jump in nearly a year, with durable goods consumption also picking up.
3. Even in a high oil price and high inflation environment, people are still willing to spend, which indirectly indicates that inflation won't be dropping quickly.
What does this mean for the market? Bulls and bears are clear as day.
Month-over-month surge of 0.9%, April data revised up to 0.4%, with 11 out of 13 major retail categories on the rise—consumer resilience is off the charts.
1. Gas prices drove gas station sales up a whopping 3.4%, and excluding energy, retail still saw a 0.7% increase; domestic demand is definitely heating up.
2. Motor vehicle sales increased by 1.2% month-over-month, marking the largest jump in nearly a year, with durable goods consumption also picking up.
3. Even in a high oil price and high inflation environment, people are still willing to spend, which indirectly indicates that inflation won't be dropping quickly.
What does this mean for the market? Bulls and bears are clear as day.
233
·
--
Let’s swap out the prez, I’m seriously over this. How can they be so fickle? 😓
Let’s swap out the prez, I’m seriously over this. How can they be so fickle? 😓
1
358
·
--
Inflation exceeds expectations, BTC's rate cut fantasies are completely shattered｜Tonight's PPI/CPI impact on Bitcoin explainedTonight's US May inflation figures are dropping:
PPI month-on-month 1.1%, year-on-year 6.5% (exceeded expectations)
CPI year-on-year 4.2%, month-on-month 0.5% (in line with expectations)
Core CPI year-on-year 2.9%, month-on-month only 0.2%
In a nutshell: upstream inflation is hotter, downstream resilience is strong, and rate cut expectations have been completely wiped out.
What does this mean for BTC?
1️⃣ High rates for longer, skyrocketing opportunity cost of holding BTC
US bond yields are hard to move down; non-interest-bearing assets are under pressure; institutional funds prefer to stay in short-term bonds, tightening the BTC liquidity environment.
2️⃣ The 'digital gold' narrative is temporarily failing, reverting to risk asset pricing
Inflation exceeds expectations, BTC's rate cut fantasies are completely shattered｜Tonight's PPI/CPI impact on Bitcoin explained
Tonight's US May inflation figures are dropping:
PPI month-on-month 1.1%, year-on-year 6.5% (exceeded expectations)
CPI year-on-year 4.2%, month-on-month 0.5% (in line with expectations)
Core CPI year-on-year 2.9%, month-on-month only 0.2%
In a nutshell: upstream inflation is hotter, downstream resilience is strong, and rate cut expectations have been completely wiped out.
What does this mean for BTC?
1️⃣ High rates for longer, skyrocketing opportunity cost of holding BTC
US bond yields are hard to move down; non-interest-bearing assets are under pressure; institutional funds prefer to stay in short-term bonds, tightening the BTC liquidity environment.
2️⃣ The 'digital gold' narrative is temporarily failing, reverting to risk asset pricing
PPI month-on-month 1.1%, year-on-year 6.5% (exceeded expectations)
CPI year-on-year 4.2%, month-on-month 0.5% (in line with expectations)
Core CPI year-on-year 2.9%, month-on-month only 0.2%
In a nutshell: upstream inflation is hotter, downstream resilience is strong, and rate cut expectations have been completely wiped out.
What does this mean for BTC?
1️⃣ High rates for longer, skyrocketing opportunity cost of holding BTC
US bond yields are hard to move down; non-interest-bearing assets are under pressure; institutional funds prefer to stay in short-term bonds, tightening the BTC liquidity environment.
2️⃣ The 'digital gold' narrative is temporarily failing, reverting to risk asset pricing
176
·
--
Article
Will tonight's PPI take over from CPI, extending the crypto space's 'darkest hour'?The US CPI for May has surged to 4.2% year-on-year, shattering the market's illusions of 'cooling inflation.' Wednesday saw a sharp drop of 4.46% in gold, ringing alarm bells for high-risk assets. Tonight at 20:30, the PPI data will be the crucial piece for confirming inflation stickiness.
Many folks are asking: What impact does PPI have on the crypto scene?
The core logic is straightforward: PPI is the 'leading indicator' of inflation, directly influencing the Fed's policy expectations, and the Fed's monetary policy acts as the 'gatekeeper' for the crypto space.
If tonight's PPI exceeds expectations and inflation stickiness is confirmed, the market will likely raise interest rate hike expectations and push back the rate cut timeline, causing the dollar and US Treasury yields to strengthen further. For the crypto world, this means skyrocketing holding costs for volatile assets, accelerated withdrawal of leveraged funds, and BTC and ETH are likely to continue their bearish trend, increasing the risk of a altcoin panic sell-off.
Will tonight's PPI take over from CPI, extending the crypto space's 'darkest hour'?
The US CPI for May has surged to 4.2% year-on-year, shattering the market's illusions of 'cooling inflation.' Wednesday saw a sharp drop of 4.46% in gold, ringing alarm bells for high-risk assets. Tonight at 20:30, the PPI data will be the crucial piece for confirming inflation stickiness.
Many folks are asking: What impact does PPI have on the crypto scene?
The core logic is straightforward: PPI is the 'leading indicator' of inflation, directly influencing the Fed's policy expectations, and the Fed's monetary policy acts as the 'gatekeeper' for the crypto space.
If tonight's PPI exceeds expectations and inflation stickiness is confirmed, the market will likely raise interest rate hike expectations and push back the rate cut timeline, causing the dollar and US Treasury yields to strengthen further. For the crypto world, this means skyrocketing holding costs for volatile assets, accelerated withdrawal of leveraged funds, and BTC and ETH are likely to continue their bearish trend, increasing the risk of a altcoin panic sell-off.
Many folks are asking: What impact does PPI have on the crypto scene?
The core logic is straightforward: PPI is the 'leading indicator' of inflation, directly influencing the Fed's policy expectations, and the Fed's monetary policy acts as the 'gatekeeper' for the crypto space.
If tonight's PPI exceeds expectations and inflation stickiness is confirmed, the market will likely raise interest rate hike expectations and push back the rate cut timeline, causing the dollar and US Treasury yields to strengthen further. For the crypto world, this means skyrocketing holding costs for volatile assets, accelerated withdrawal of leveraged funds, and BTC and ETH are likely to continue their bearish trend, increasing the risk of a altcoin panic sell-off.
1
232
·
--
Long-term US Treasury yields have broken above 5%, signaling a tightening of global liquidity. We're not entering a new rate hike cycle, but rather a pricing phase for sustained high rates.
US stock valuations are under pressure, gold is weighed down by its non-yielding nature, and Bitcoin, as a high-volatility risk asset, is facing significant downward pressure, especially with the digital gold narrative losing traction. Until we see clear signals for rate cuts, various assets are unlikely to trend, so a cautious approach is key.
Long-term US Treasury yields have broken above 5%, signaling a tightening of global liquidity. We're not entering a new rate hike cycle, but rather a pricing phase for sustained high rates.
US stock valuations are under pressure, gold is weighed down by its non-yielding nature, and Bitcoin, as a high-volatility risk asset, is facing significant downward pressure, especially with the digital gold narrative losing traction. Until we see clear signals for rate cuts, various assets are unlikely to trend, so a cautious approach is key.
US stock valuations are under pressure, gold is weighed down by its non-yielding nature, and Bitcoin, as a high-volatility risk asset, is facing significant downward pressure, especially with the digital gold narrative losing traction. Until we see clear signals for rate cuts, various assets are unlikely to trend, so a cautious approach is key.
208
·
--
Article
Market Bets on Rate Hikes + Walsh's Tapering: Where Will Bitcoin Dip?Now, the core fact in one sentence:
The market is no longer betting on rate cuts, but on: Walsh taking office → maintaining high rates + one rate hike in the second half + aggressive tapering throughout the year.
This means Bitcoin = liquidity drain + high interest rate pressure, definitely under pressure in the short term; but in the long run, it actually strengthens the 'digital gold' narrative.
Let's get straight to it: impacts + the most likely price range for a dip.
1. The Three-Layer Impact on Bitcoin
1) Short-term (1–3 months): double bearish, choppy downtrend.
Rate hike expectations + high interest rates: the dollar strengthens, US Treasury yields rise, Bitcoin yields nothing, institutional funds prefer to flow back into Treasuries, selling BTC as a hedge.
Market Bets on Rate Hikes + Walsh's Tapering: Where Will Bitcoin Dip?
Now, the core fact in one sentence:
The market is no longer betting on rate cuts, but on: Walsh taking office → maintaining high rates + one rate hike in the second half + aggressive tapering throughout the year.
This means Bitcoin = liquidity drain + high interest rate pressure, definitely under pressure in the short term; but in the long run, it actually strengthens the 'digital gold' narrative.
Let's get straight to it: impacts + the most likely price range for a dip.
1. The Three-Layer Impact on Bitcoin
1) Short-term (1–3 months): double bearish, choppy downtrend.
Rate hike expectations + high interest rates: the dollar strengthens, US Treasury yields rise, Bitcoin yields nothing, institutional funds prefer to flow back into Treasuries, selling BTC as a hedge.
The market is no longer betting on rate cuts, but on: Walsh taking office → maintaining high rates + one rate hike in the second half + aggressive tapering throughout the year.
This means Bitcoin = liquidity drain + high interest rate pressure, definitely under pressure in the short term; but in the long run, it actually strengthens the 'digital gold' narrative.
Let's get straight to it: impacts + the most likely price range for a dip.
1. The Three-Layer Impact on Bitcoin
1) Short-term (1–3 months): double bearish, choppy downtrend.
Rate hike expectations + high interest rates: the dollar strengthens, US Treasury yields rise, Bitcoin yields nothing, institutional funds prefer to flow back into Treasuries, selling BTC as a hedge.
2
153
·
--
Article
Epic trio of mega IPOs incoming! Bitcoin price prediction for the next 3-4 months (the clearest timeline on the web)In the second half of 2026, the largest liquidity drain cycle globally will officially kick off.
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all going public in quick succession, raising nearly $200 billion in total, which will significantly alter the flow of global risk capital and have a strong impact on BTC price movement, with a very clear rhythm.
1. The latest timing + fundraising details for the three mega IPOs (final version)
✅ SpaceX｜Listing on Nasdaq on June 12 (SPCX)
Funds raised: $75 billion
Valuation: $1.77 trillion
Rhythm: Pricing on June 11, official listing on June 12 (first round of liquidity drain)
✅ OpenAI｜Going public in September
Funds raised: $60 billion
Epic trio of mega IPOs incoming! Bitcoin price prediction for the next 3-4 months (the clearest timeline on the web)
In the second half of 2026, the largest liquidity drain cycle globally will officially kick off.
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all going public in quick succession, raising nearly $200 billion in total, which will significantly alter the flow of global risk capital and have a strong impact on BTC price movement, with a very clear rhythm.
1. The latest timing + fundraising details for the three mega IPOs (final version)
✅ SpaceX｜Listing on Nasdaq on June 12 (SPCX)
Funds raised: $75 billion
Valuation: $1.77 trillion
Rhythm: Pricing on June 11, official listing on June 12 (first round of liquidity drain)
✅ OpenAI｜Going public in September
Funds raised: $60 billion
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all going public in quick succession, raising nearly $200 billion in total, which will significantly alter the flow of global risk capital and have a strong impact on BTC price movement, with a very clear rhythm.
1. The latest timing + fundraising details for the three mega IPOs (final version)
✅ SpaceX｜Listing on Nasdaq on June 12 (SPCX)
Funds raised: $75 billion
Valuation: $1.77 trillion
Rhythm: Pricing on June 11, official listing on June 12 (first round of liquidity drain)
✅ OpenAI｜Going public in September
Funds raised: $60 billion
554
·
--
The BTC daily chart is currently going through a brutal bear wash, with prices crashing down from a high of 97,925, currently hitting a low of 59,111. Both KDJ and RSI have entered extreme oversold territory, and the MACD bearish momentum is still being released, indicating that the downtrend has yet to stabilize.
Many people are asking: If the crucial support at 59,000 is broken, where are the next support levels? Here are 3 core tiers:
✅ First Tier: $52,000-$55,000
A historical trading zone that has been tested multiple times from 2024-2025, also the first battleground for technical bottom fishing, likely to see the first oversold rebound.
✅ Second Tier: $47,000-$50,000
The lower boundary of the bull market consolidation range for 2024, near the cost line for institutions and whales, representing a strong accumulation support area.
✅ Third Tier: $38,000-$42,000
The launch platform for the bull market of 2023-2024, with Fibonacci extension support on the weekly level, only to be touched in extreme panic situations.
⚠️ Important Reminder: Support ≠ guaranteed rebound. In a clear bearish trend, all support levels are merely potential battlegrounds, not safe cushions for bottom fishing. Left-side bottom fishing needs strict position control; in contract trading, do not chase shorts, wait for stabilization signals before acting, and never go against the trend. #比特币闪崩后反弹至6.1万美元
The BTC daily chart is currently going through a brutal bear wash, with prices crashing down from a high of 97,925, currently hitting a low of 59,111. Both KDJ and RSI have entered extreme oversold territory, and the MACD bearish momentum is still being released, indicating that the downtrend has yet to stabilize.
Many people are asking: If the crucial support at 59,000 is broken, where are the next support levels? Here are 3 core tiers:
✅ First Tier: $52,000-$55,000
A historical trading zone that has been tested multiple times from 2024-2025, also the first battleground for technical bottom fishing, likely to see the first oversold rebound.
✅ Second Tier: $47,000-$50,000
The lower boundary of the bull market consolidation range for 2024, near the cost line for institutions and whales, representing a strong accumulation support area.
✅ Third Tier: $38,000-$42,000
The launch platform for the bull market of 2023-2024, with Fibonacci extension support on the weekly level, only to be touched in extreme panic situations.
⚠️ Important Reminder: Support ≠ guaranteed rebound. In a clear bearish trend, all support levels are merely potential battlegrounds, not safe cushions for bottom fishing. Left-side bottom fishing needs strict position control; in contract trading, do not chase shorts, wait for stabilization signals before acting, and never go against the trend. #比特币闪崩后反弹至6.1万美元
Many people are asking: If the crucial support at 59,000 is broken, where are the next support levels? Here are 3 core tiers:
✅ First Tier: $52,000-$55,000
A historical trading zone that has been tested multiple times from 2024-2025, also the first battleground for technical bottom fishing, likely to see the first oversold rebound.
✅ Second Tier: $47,000-$50,000
The lower boundary of the bull market consolidation range for 2024, near the cost line for institutions and whales, representing a strong accumulation support area.
✅ Third Tier: $38,000-$42,000
The launch platform for the bull market of 2023-2024, with Fibonacci extension support on the weekly level, only to be touched in extreme panic situations.
⚠️ Important Reminder: Support ≠ guaranteed rebound. In a clear bearish trend, all support levels are merely potential battlegrounds, not safe cushions for bottom fishing. Left-side bottom fishing needs strict position control; in contract trading, do not chase shorts, wait for stabilization signals before acting, and never go against the trend. #比特币闪崩后反弹至6.1万美元
247
·
--
ETH is definitely taking a hit this time. Today, I'm here to break it down for you: after breaking below 1500, how should we respond and where are the support levels?
First off, let me give you some peace of mind: even though it's dropping hard right now, the KDJ and RSI are both extremely oversold, but the MACD's bearish momentum hasn't tapered off yet, so now is not the time for mindless bottom-fishing. Don’t act impulsively!
Now, let’s talk about what everyone is most concerned about: after breaking 1500, where could it drop to next? I've prioritized the levels for you, so stop guessing:
1️⃣ The first support level is 1300-1350.
This is a zone that has held up several times before, and it's the first battleground for many traders, so there's a good chance of a small bounce here, but don’t expect a full reversal—just a technical bounce.
2️⃣ The second support level is 1180-1250.
This is the range from the 2022 bear market, where many institutions and seasoned traders have their cost bases. It's a solid support level, and if it drops here, panic selling will likely be nearing its end.
3️⃣ Finally, in an extreme scenario, we could see 950-1050.
This is the major bottom from 2022. If it gets to this point, it basically means the overall market is in serious trouble. Don’t even think about bottom-fishing then; staying alive is more important than anything else.
To be frank with you: in this kind of downtrend, support levels aren’t for bottom-fishing; they’re to set your psychological expectations. Don’t chase shorts, don’t over-leverage, manage your positions well—staying in the game is more important than catching the bottom.
ETH is definitely taking a hit this time. Today, I'm here to break it down for you: after breaking below 1500, how should we respond and where are the support levels?
First off, let me give you some peace of mind: even though it's dropping hard right now, the KDJ and RSI are both extremely oversold, but the MACD's bearish momentum hasn't tapered off yet, so now is not the time for mindless bottom-fishing. Don’t act impulsively!
Now, let’s talk about what everyone is most concerned about: after breaking 1500, where could it drop to next? I've prioritized the levels for you, so stop guessing:
1️⃣ The first support level is 1300-1350.
This is a zone that has held up several times before, and it's the first battleground for many traders, so there's a good chance of a small bounce here, but don’t expect a full reversal—just a technical bounce.
2️⃣ The second support level is 1180-1250.
This is the range from the 2022 bear market, where many institutions and seasoned traders have their cost bases. It's a solid support level, and if it drops here, panic selling will likely be nearing its end.
3️⃣ Finally, in an extreme scenario, we could see 950-1050.
This is the major bottom from 2022. If it gets to this point, it basically means the overall market is in serious trouble. Don’t even think about bottom-fishing then; staying alive is more important than anything else.
To be frank with you: in this kind of downtrend, support levels aren’t for bottom-fishing; they’re to set your psychological expectations. Don’t chase shorts, don’t over-leverage, manage your positions well—staying in the game is more important than catching the bottom.
First off, let me give you some peace of mind: even though it's dropping hard right now, the KDJ and RSI are both extremely oversold, but the MACD's bearish momentum hasn't tapered off yet, so now is not the time for mindless bottom-fishing. Don’t act impulsively!
Now, let’s talk about what everyone is most concerned about: after breaking 1500, where could it drop to next? I've prioritized the levels for you, so stop guessing:
1️⃣ The first support level is 1300-1350.
This is a zone that has held up several times before, and it's the first battleground for many traders, so there's a good chance of a small bounce here, but don’t expect a full reversal—just a technical bounce.
2️⃣ The second support level is 1180-1250.
This is the range from the 2022 bear market, where many institutions and seasoned traders have their cost bases. It's a solid support level, and if it drops here, panic selling will likely be nearing its end.
3️⃣ Finally, in an extreme scenario, we could see 950-1050.
This is the major bottom from 2022. If it gets to this point, it basically means the overall market is in serious trouble. Don’t even think about bottom-fishing then; staying alive is more important than anything else.
To be frank with you: in this kind of downtrend, support levels aren’t for bottom-fishing; they’re to set your psychological expectations. Don’t chase shorts, don’t over-leverage, manage your positions well—staying in the game is more important than catching the bottom.
1
586
·
--
Wishing this whale good luck, the liquidation price dropped below 1356. This time it's a real bear market, better to watch and avoid catching falling knives.
Wishing this whale good luck, the liquidation price dropped below 1356. This time it's a real bear market, better to watch and avoid catching falling knives.
533
·
--
BTC Market Analysis: Short-term technical rebound initiated, but it's merely a correction, hard to directly reverse the downtrend
Current Price 63080 | Intraday Low 61365
1. Indicators show bottom signals (short-term rebound logic)
1. RSI6 from the previous day's 15.35 oversold → rebounding to 30.61, funds entering from the severely oversold zone, short-term bearish momentum exhausted;
2. KDJ all turning upwards from the low (K18/D16/J21), soon to golden cross at the low, a typical short-term recovery signal;
3. MACD green bars shortening, DIFF's downtrend slowing, selling pressure clearing out phase by phase;
4. After a volume spike at 61365, funds are stepping in, closing with an upward candlestick, short-term confirming a rebound trend.
2. Key resistance & support levels
🔺 Layered resistance for the rebound (zones facing pressure in batches)
1. First resistance: 64550 (EMA12 moving average 64549, purple line in the chart)
A critical short-term lifeline broken during this downtrend, the first hurdle for the rebound, likely to face resistance here;
2. Second resistance: 66000, the lower boundary of the previous consolidation box, a strong mid-term resistance, hard to break through all at once.
🔻 Support below
• Short-term support: 61365 intraday low, the baseline for this rebound, a bounce back if not broken;
• Core defense line: 60000-60500 institutional cost support area.
3. Market characterization (key point)
This is an oversold technical rebound, not a reversal into a bull run
1. Major trend: Daily chart along EMA12 downwards, overall downtrend structure intact, ETF continues net outflows, institutional funds still withdrawing;
2. Two potential scenarios:
① Healthy rebound: 61365 → 64300~64600 meets resistance, then retests 61500, leaning towards weak oscillation;
② Weak trend: faces pressure at 63800 for a rebound, second test around 60800.
Operational Thoughts
Position: Take profits in batches at low levels 64300~64500, avoid chasing highs;
No position: Lightly long near 61800 on a dip, stop loss at 61200, target 64200; if the rebound at 64500 meets resistance, consider reversing to short.
BTC Market Analysis: Short-term technical rebound initiated, but it's merely a correction, hard to directly reverse the downtrend
Current Price 63080 | Intraday Low 61365
1. Indicators show bottom signals (short-term rebound logic)
1. RSI6 from the previous day's 15.35 oversold → rebounding to 30.61, funds entering from the severely oversold zone, short-term bearish momentum exhausted;
2. KDJ all turning upwards from the low (K18/D16/J21), soon to golden cross at the low, a typical short-term recovery signal;
3. MACD green bars shortening, DIFF's downtrend slowing, selling pressure clearing out phase by phase;
4. After a volume spike at 61365, funds are stepping in, closing with an upward candlestick, short-term confirming a rebound trend.
2. Key resistance & support levels
🔺 Layered resistance for the rebound (zones facing pressure in batches)
1. First resistance: 64550 (EMA12 moving average 64549, purple line in the chart)
A critical short-term lifeline broken during this downtrend, the first hurdle for the rebound, likely to face resistance here;
2. Second resistance: 66000, the lower boundary of the previous consolidation box, a strong mid-term resistance, hard to break through all at once.
🔻 Support below
• Short-term support: 61365 intraday low, the baseline for this rebound, a bounce back if not broken;
• Core defense line: 60000-60500 institutional cost support area.
3. Market characterization (key point)
This is an oversold technical rebound, not a reversal into a bull run
1. Major trend: Daily chart along EMA12 downwards, overall downtrend structure intact, ETF continues net outflows, institutional funds still withdrawing;
2. Two potential scenarios:
① Healthy rebound: 61365 → 64300~64600 meets resistance, then retests 61500, leaning towards weak oscillation;
② Weak trend: faces pressure at 63800 for a rebound, second test around 60800.
Operational Thoughts
Position: Take profits in batches at low levels 64300~64500, avoid chasing highs;
No position: Lightly long near 61800 on a dip, stop loss at 61200, target 64200; if the rebound at 64500 meets resistance, consider reversing to short.
Current Price 63080 | Intraday Low 61365
1. Indicators show bottom signals (short-term rebound logic)
1. RSI6 from the previous day's 15.35 oversold → rebounding to 30.61, funds entering from the severely oversold zone, short-term bearish momentum exhausted;
2. KDJ all turning upwards from the low (K18/D16/J21), soon to golden cross at the low, a typical short-term recovery signal;
3. MACD green bars shortening, DIFF's downtrend slowing, selling pressure clearing out phase by phase;
4. After a volume spike at 61365, funds are stepping in, closing with an upward candlestick, short-term confirming a rebound trend.
2. Key resistance & support levels
🔺 Layered resistance for the rebound (zones facing pressure in batches)
1. First resistance: 64550 (EMA12 moving average 64549, purple line in the chart)
A critical short-term lifeline broken during this downtrend, the first hurdle for the rebound, likely to face resistance here;
2. Second resistance: 66000, the lower boundary of the previous consolidation box, a strong mid-term resistance, hard to break through all at once.
🔻 Support below
• Short-term support: 61365 intraday low, the baseline for this rebound, a bounce back if not broken;
• Core defense line: 60000-60500 institutional cost support area.
3. Market characterization (key point)
This is an oversold technical rebound, not a reversal into a bull run
1. Major trend: Daily chart along EMA12 downwards, overall downtrend structure intact, ETF continues net outflows, institutional funds still withdrawing;
2. Two potential scenarios:
① Healthy rebound: 61365 → 64300~64600 meets resistance, then retests 61500, leaning towards weak oscillation;
② Weak trend: faces pressure at 63800 for a rebound, second test around 60800.
Operational Thoughts
Position: Take profits in batches at low levels 64300~64500, avoid chasing highs;
No position: Lightly long near 61800 on a dip, stop loss at 61200, target 64200; if the rebound at 64500 meets resistance, consider reversing to short.
212
·
--
The Truth Behind IBIT's Continuous Outflows, No Need to Panic
Recently, BTC has been weakening, and BlackRock's IBIT has seen significant redemptions, which is a direct trigger.
Three points on the outflow logic:
1. Early profit-taking by institutions cashing in
2. Rising expectations for Fed rate hikes, with funds moving to US Treasury bonds for fixed income
3. US stock market pullback, leading public funds to reduce exposure to risk assets
⚠️ Key Point: Short-term withdrawals ≠ Long-term exit
IBIT has seen a cumulative net inflow of nearly 800,000 BTC since launch, and the big players still have their positions.
Watch for the turning point: IBIT shifting from outflow to net inflow = short-term bottom signal
#BTC #ETF spot
The Truth Behind IBIT's Continuous Outflows, No Need to Panic
Recently, BTC has been weakening, and BlackRock's IBIT has seen significant redemptions, which is a direct trigger.
Three points on the outflow logic:
1. Early profit-taking by institutions cashing in
2. Rising expectations for Fed rate hikes, with funds moving to US Treasury bonds for fixed income
3. US stock market pullback, leading public funds to reduce exposure to risk assets
⚠️ Key Point: Short-term withdrawals ≠ Long-term exit
IBIT has seen a cumulative net inflow of nearly 800,000 BTC since launch, and the big players still have their positions.
Watch for the turning point: IBIT shifting from outflow to net inflow = short-term bottom signal
#BTC #ETF spot
Recently, BTC has been weakening, and BlackRock's IBIT has seen significant redemptions, which is a direct trigger.
Three points on the outflow logic:
1. Early profit-taking by institutions cashing in
2. Rising expectations for Fed rate hikes, with funds moving to US Treasury bonds for fixed income
3. US stock market pullback, leading public funds to reduce exposure to risk assets
⚠️ Key Point: Short-term withdrawals ≠ Long-term exit
IBIT has seen a cumulative net inflow of nearly 800,000 BTC since launch, and the big players still have their positions.
Watch for the turning point: IBIT shifting from outflow to net inflow = short-term bottom signal
#BTC #ETF spot
240
·
--
Verified
Recently, $HYPE has shown a typical strong structure that doesn't drop despite bearish news, leaving many confused: with unlocks continuously released and whales going long against the trend, why is the market getting stronger? The core logic boils down to 5 key conclusions at the trading level:
1. All unlocks are 'expected bearish signals' and have been fully priced-in.
The team's monthly linear unlocks are part of a fixed mechanism, and the market has digested this well in advance. After the recent large unlocks, there was no concentrated sell-off; all tokens have been absorbed and locked up by long-term funds, and the circulating supply has not expanded.
2. The protocol brings strong buying pressure, completely hedging against supply pressure.
Hyperliquid's 99% fee buyback and burn in the secondary market creates substantial daily passive buying support.
Burning is deflationary > unlocking increases, maintaining a bullish supply-demand structure.
3. The current shorts are 'counter-trend top guessing orders', not a main force sell-off.
Recently, whales have opened large short positions, speculating on a temporary top,
not indicating a main force is offloading or a trend reversal.
As short positions accumulate, it actually builds up short squeeze momentum.
4. The core of this rally: compliant funds + leveraged longs as dual drivers.
• Continuous net inflows from overseas ETFs, long-term institutions are consistently raising their base positions.
• Intra-market cyclical staking to go long, forming a positive spiral of 'rising → adding positions → rising again'.
The tokens are highly concentrated, with very light selling pressure, making it easy to trigger a structural short squeeze.
5. The only short-term risk window: June 6 monthly unlock.
As long as the fundamentals, capital situation, and on-chain structure remain strong, the bullish structure will stay intact.
The unlock window will only bring short-term volatility, without changing the current trend.
Final trading conclusion:
HYPE is now in a:
bearish news fully priced-in + deflationary support + institutional inflow + short squeeze phase of a strong bullish cycle.
Counter-trend short positions are just short-term sentiment and are not enough to reverse the main upward structure.
Recently, $HYPE has shown a typical strong structure that doesn't drop despite bearish news, leaving many confused: with unlocks continuously released and whales going long against the trend, why is the market getting stronger? The core logic boils down to 5 key conclusions at the trading level:
1. All unlocks are 'expected bearish signals' and have been fully priced-in.
The team's monthly linear unlocks are part of a fixed mechanism, and the market has digested this well in advance. After the recent large unlocks, there was no concentrated sell-off; all tokens have been absorbed and locked up by long-term funds, and the circulating supply has not expanded.
2. The protocol brings strong buying pressure, completely hedging against supply pressure.
Hyperliquid's 99% fee buyback and burn in the secondary market creates substantial daily passive buying support.
Burning is deflationary > unlocking increases, maintaining a bullish supply-demand structure.
3. The current shorts are 'counter-trend top guessing orders', not a main force sell-off.
Recently, whales have opened large short positions, speculating on a temporary top,
not indicating a main force is offloading or a trend reversal.
As short positions accumulate, it actually builds up short squeeze momentum.
4. The core of this rally: compliant funds + leveraged longs as dual drivers.
• Continuous net inflows from overseas ETFs, long-term institutions are consistently raising their base positions.
• Intra-market cyclical staking to go long, forming a positive spiral of 'rising → adding positions → rising again'.
The tokens are highly concentrated, with very light selling pressure, making it easy to trigger a structural short squeeze.
5. The only short-term risk window: June 6 monthly unlock.
As long as the fundamentals, capital situation, and on-chain structure remain strong, the bullish structure will stay intact.
The unlock window will only bring short-term volatility, without changing the current trend.
Final trading conclusion:
HYPE is now in a:
bearish news fully priced-in + deflationary support + institutional inflow + short squeeze phase of a strong bullish cycle.
Counter-trend short positions are just short-term sentiment and are not enough to reverse the main upward structure.
1. All unlocks are 'expected bearish signals' and have been fully priced-in.
The team's monthly linear unlocks are part of a fixed mechanism, and the market has digested this well in advance. After the recent large unlocks, there was no concentrated sell-off; all tokens have been absorbed and locked up by long-term funds, and the circulating supply has not expanded.
2. The protocol brings strong buying pressure, completely hedging against supply pressure.
Hyperliquid's 99% fee buyback and burn in the secondary market creates substantial daily passive buying support.
Burning is deflationary > unlocking increases, maintaining a bullish supply-demand structure.
3. The current shorts are 'counter-trend top guessing orders', not a main force sell-off.
Recently, whales have opened large short positions, speculating on a temporary top,
not indicating a main force is offloading or a trend reversal.
As short positions accumulate, it actually builds up short squeeze momentum.
4. The core of this rally: compliant funds + leveraged longs as dual drivers.
• Continuous net inflows from overseas ETFs, long-term institutions are consistently raising their base positions.
• Intra-market cyclical staking to go long, forming a positive spiral of 'rising → adding positions → rising again'.
The tokens are highly concentrated, with very light selling pressure, making it easy to trigger a structural short squeeze.
5. The only short-term risk window: June 6 monthly unlock.
As long as the fundamentals, capital situation, and on-chain structure remain strong, the bullish structure will stay intact.
The unlock window will only bring short-term volatility, without changing the current trend.
Final trading conclusion:
HYPE is now in a:
bearish news fully priced-in + deflationary support + institutional inflow + short squeeze phase of a strong bullish cycle.
Counter-trend short positions are just short-term sentiment and are not enough to reverse the main upward structure.
2
762
·
--
Recently, BTC has been on a downward trend, and the market sentiment is extremely bearish. A lot of folks are asking: Is the drop nearing its end? Today, let’s break down the current market from both news and technical perspectives.
1. Core bearish logic behind this round of decline
1. Fed policy expectations have completely reversed.
U.S. inflation data has significantly exceeded expectations, leading the market to shift from previous hopes of rate cuts to pricing in interest rate hikes by year-end. U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, with risk-free rates climbing, which directly suppresses risk assets like Bitcoin, causing institutional funds to flee.
2. Spot ETF funds have seen a cliff-like outflow.
The U.S. spot BTC ETF has experienced rare large net redemptions since its launch, leading to a complete halt in institutional buying and a loss of core incremental funds in the market. The foundation for any upward trend has been directly shaken.
3. Leverage liquidations + flight to safety funds.
High-position long orders triggered a chain reaction of liquidations, creating negative feedback as prices fell; combined with geopolitical tensions, funds are moving towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold, causing severe blood loss in the crypto market.
4. Unclear regulatory expectations in the industry.
Progress on related crypto legislation in the U.S. has encountered obstacles, increasing uncertainty over compliance prospects and further suppressing market risk appetite.
2. Technical analysis: Has the decline ended?
From a daily chart perspective:
✅ Short-term outlook
KDJ and RSI have entered the oversold zone, and the bearish momentum is clearly waning, indicating a need for a technical rebound.
❌ Mid-term outlook
Prices have dropped below all short-term moving averages, and the MACD bearish trend has not yet reversed. We can only say that the rate of decline has slowed; we absolutely cannot declare that the bottom has been reached, as the broader bearish structure remains unchanged.
3. Key support & resistance levels
🔹 Short-term first support: 72000-72200 USDT
If we hold here, we might see a weak rebound, with resistance levels looking at the 76500-77000 range.
🔹 Mid-term strong support: 68000-69000 USDT
If this support level breaks with volume, the main target for this round of decline will focus on this earlier launch platform.
🔹 Extreme drop level: 65000 USDT
This extreme scenario will only trigger if macro bearish factors continue to ferment, making it a low-probability event.
4. Trading strategy reminders
❌ Do not blindly try to catch the bottom; wait for stabilization signals before making a move.
✅ In the short term, wait for the 72000 support to stabilize + indicators to cross before cautiously trying long positions.
✅ Maintain a bearish bias in the mid-term; a rebound into the resistance zone presents a good shorting opportunity.
⚠️ Always prioritize risk management; be sure to evade if key support levels break.
Recently, BTC has been on a downward trend, and the market sentiment is extremely bearish. A lot of folks are asking: Is the drop nearing its end? Today, let’s break down the current market from both news and technical perspectives.
1. Core bearish logic behind this round of decline
1. Fed policy expectations have completely reversed.
U.S. inflation data has significantly exceeded expectations, leading the market to shift from previous hopes of rate cuts to pricing in interest rate hikes by year-end. U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, with risk-free rates climbing, which directly suppresses risk assets like Bitcoin, causing institutional funds to flee.
2. Spot ETF funds have seen a cliff-like outflow.
The U.S. spot BTC ETF has experienced rare large net redemptions since its launch, leading to a complete halt in institutional buying and a loss of core incremental funds in the market. The foundation for any upward trend has been directly shaken.
3. Leverage liquidations + flight to safety funds.
High-position long orders triggered a chain reaction of liquidations, creating negative feedback as prices fell; combined with geopolitical tensions, funds are moving towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold, causing severe blood loss in the crypto market.
4. Unclear regulatory expectations in the industry.
Progress on related crypto legislation in the U.S. has encountered obstacles, increasing uncertainty over compliance prospects and further suppressing market risk appetite.
2. Technical analysis: Has the decline ended?
From a daily chart perspective:
✅ Short-term outlook
KDJ and RSI have entered the oversold zone, and the bearish momentum is clearly waning, indicating a need for a technical rebound.
❌ Mid-term outlook
Prices have dropped below all short-term moving averages, and the MACD bearish trend has not yet reversed. We can only say that the rate of decline has slowed; we absolutely cannot declare that the bottom has been reached, as the broader bearish structure remains unchanged.
3. Key support & resistance levels
🔹 Short-term first support: 72000-72200 USDT
If we hold here, we might see a weak rebound, with resistance levels looking at the 76500-77000 range.
🔹 Mid-term strong support: 68000-69000 USDT
If this support level breaks with volume, the main target for this round of decline will focus on this earlier launch platform.
🔹 Extreme drop level: 65000 USDT
This extreme scenario will only trigger if macro bearish factors continue to ferment, making it a low-probability event.
4. Trading strategy reminders
❌ Do not blindly try to catch the bottom; wait for stabilization signals before making a move.
✅ In the short term, wait for the 72000 support to stabilize + indicators to cross before cautiously trying long positions.
✅ Maintain a bearish bias in the mid-term; a rebound into the resistance zone presents a good shorting opportunity.
⚠️ Always prioritize risk management; be sure to evade if key support levels break.
1. Core bearish logic behind this round of decline
1. Fed policy expectations have completely reversed.
U.S. inflation data has significantly exceeded expectations, leading the market to shift from previous hopes of rate cuts to pricing in interest rate hikes by year-end. U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, with risk-free rates climbing, which directly suppresses risk assets like Bitcoin, causing institutional funds to flee.
2. Spot ETF funds have seen a cliff-like outflow.
The U.S. spot BTC ETF has experienced rare large net redemptions since its launch, leading to a complete halt in institutional buying and a loss of core incremental funds in the market. The foundation for any upward trend has been directly shaken.
3. Leverage liquidations + flight to safety funds.
High-position long orders triggered a chain reaction of liquidations, creating negative feedback as prices fell; combined with geopolitical tensions, funds are moving towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold, causing severe blood loss in the crypto market.
4. Unclear regulatory expectations in the industry.
Progress on related crypto legislation in the U.S. has encountered obstacles, increasing uncertainty over compliance prospects and further suppressing market risk appetite.
2. Technical analysis: Has the decline ended?
From a daily chart perspective:
✅ Short-term outlook
KDJ and RSI have entered the oversold zone, and the bearish momentum is clearly waning, indicating a need for a technical rebound.
❌ Mid-term outlook
Prices have dropped below all short-term moving averages, and the MACD bearish trend has not yet reversed. We can only say that the rate of decline has slowed; we absolutely cannot declare that the bottom has been reached, as the broader bearish structure remains unchanged.
3. Key support & resistance levels
🔹 Short-term first support: 72000-72200 USDT
If we hold here, we might see a weak rebound, with resistance levels looking at the 76500-77000 range.
🔹 Mid-term strong support: 68000-69000 USDT
If this support level breaks with volume, the main target for this round of decline will focus on this earlier launch platform.
🔹 Extreme drop level: 65000 USDT
This extreme scenario will only trigger if macro bearish factors continue to ferment, making it a low-probability event.
4. Trading strategy reminders
❌ Do not blindly try to catch the bottom; wait for stabilization signals before making a move.
✅ In the short term, wait for the 72000 support to stabilize + indicators to cross before cautiously trying long positions.
✅ Maintain a bearish bias in the mid-term; a rebound into the resistance zone presents a good shorting opportunity.
⚠️ Always prioritize risk management; be sure to evade if key support levels break.
265
Log in to explore more content
Join global crypto users on Binance Square
⚡️ Get latest and useful information about crypto.
💬 Trusted by the world’s largest crypto exchange.
👍 Discover real insights from verified creators.
Email / Phone number
Trending Topics
CPIWatch
86.1M views
499,104 Discussing
Share & Win Traffic Reward in our Trending Hashtag Campaign
✨Topic: Will CPI Trigger Rate Hike?
👉How to Join:
Publish a short post or article with hashtag #CPIWatch
Create content based on the below two angles:
- Nonfarm payrolls beat expectations and CPI is around the corner, do you think the Fed will hike or hold the rate?
- Bullish or bearish? Share your take and showcase your stocks or gold trade/holdings with our trade sharing widget.
🚀Campaign Period:
- 2026-09-11 3:00 - 2026-09-12 9:00 UTC
🎁Reward:
- Qualified posts that comply with the above guidelines and contain more than 100 words will be reviewed and may receive a random traffic boost of 500 to 3,000 views. You will receive a notification from your feed secretary if your post is selected.
- Get a chance to have your article featured on Binance Square Official
Need ideas for your post? Visit the topic page #CPIWatch or the Square Guide on How to Post for Better Reach.
Binance Square Official
·203 Likes
·336.8k views
USToSanctionBigBankMonday
471 views
51 Discussing
TrumpDeclinesSaudiRequestToStrikeHouthis
6,837 views
186 Discussing