路遥Trader

Bitcoin has reached 70,000 USD, do you dare to buy in?

Anyway, I don't dare!
But didn't you say that you would bottom out when it falls to 70,000?

Yes...
Left side anticipates in advance, right side confirms and follows, I both anticipate and follow...

Some say that there are people in the market looking for Bitcoin to drop to 30,000 or 40,000 USD.
Isn't that just nonsense?

Indeed, I never said that, after all, I only see it at 50,000 to 70,000 USD.

But you must remember
The market is always right.
The market is always unpredictable.

The last bull market ended, ultimately dropping 77% to over 15,000 USD.
So, if we reference the same proportion of decline, doesn't that mean the price would reach 30,000 USD?

History does not simply repeat itself, but because of human nature, history will replay similar rhythms~
So, why is it impossible for Bitcoin to drop to 30,000 USD?

You can only be in an invincible position if you are prepared for the worst!
So, is history replaying similar rhythms?

Why don't I dare to bottom out at 70,000?
The bull market has its own time cycle, and the bear market has a similar rhythm.
When the price quickly reaches a widely agreed “support zone”,
Then, its time is far from enough.

Any market trend operates with an energy that drives the trend forward.
It is clear that the current bearish forces far exceed the bullish ones.
When the last bear market began, people believed that dropping from 68,000 to 30,000 was already a halving and reached an important support zone on the technical level; this is a significant rebound or reversal support point.

But the market did not go as hoped~
So, let’s be patient and wait!

During the “bear market” cycle,
Either the price drops below the psychological threshold of the public,
Or the price reaches a certain price zone and then digests and accumulates upward energy through a long period of sluggish market conditions.

So, why do I say that the entire 26 years will not be too high~
Because from November 2022 to October 2025, this three-year Bitcoin bull market, do you think you can complete the “bear market” cycle in these 4 months from October 2025 to now?

Dream on!
#BTC

If the US and Iran continue to have such back-and-forth exchanges, then the chance of crude oil breaking 100 to 120 is quite high.

When oil prices rise above 100 dollars, how will the crypto market react?
Inflation rising again
→ Expectations for interest rate cuts disappear
→ US Treasury yields rise
→ Liquidity tightens

So when expectations for interest rate cuts fall sharply, the already limited liquidity continues to tighten.
As a risk asset, Bitcoin will continue to be sold off...

However, this is likely a phase of market volatility.
I actually believe that if Bitcoin truly falls in response, it will be the optimal “buy the dip” opportunity in the medium to long term!

By the way, which exchange has launched crude oil contracts? Those that haven't should hurry up and do so!
If Bitcoin doesn't work, play with gold; if gold doesn't work, play with crude oil; if crude oil doesn't work, play with US stocks😉
The moment when an exchange can maneuver global mainstream assets is approaching!
#BTC

I don't know if history will follow similar rhymes

But at least, it's not the right time to 'bottom fish'

Waiting is also a strategy~
#BTC

Don't take this rebound as redemption
On-chain activity is low, and there isn't much heat in CEX either. Altcoins occasionally pull up with Bitcoin, but the funds have not returned

Projects with real speculative value will be retained during this round of fluctuations, while garbage projects will ultimately trend toward zero

What is more suitable to do now is: reduce positions, stick to discipline, and wait for both trading volume and structure to confirm before buying

The market never owes you an opportunity to open a position; patience and risk control are the underlying logic for long-term profits

What we are competing for now is patience and confidence!
#BTC

Surely this time, Bitcoin has finally managed to break through smoothly, right? If it pulls another fake breakout, I’ll be truly amazed…

Money really is getting harder and harder to earn.
You need more patience, determination, and unwavering confidence—otherwise, when it’s time to lose, you’ll lose; when it’s time to profit, you’ll miss the boat. That’s just a total waste of effort 🤣

Let’s first see how high this rally can go.
The higher the rebound, the higher the potential bottom of the upcoming bear market will be.
Anyway, don’t listen to those people who keep talking nonsense and endlessly waiting for $20,000—only a black swan event could bring that price…
#BTC

Although the US stock market has been in a long-term upward trend
there have been occasional downward adjustments along the way
this time it's unclear whether it's a minor pullback in a mid-term upward trend or a major pullback...

From April 25 to now, it has risen for a whole year, and from October 25 to now, it has also hovered in a high range for nearly two quarters
From a technical perspective, it may be a level adjustment similar to the red arrow

So, be cautious as sailing a ship takes many years, waiting for this wave of adjustment in the US stock market
Now is a suitable time to remain still, and it's uncertain whether other markets will be affected...

Crude oil and the US dollar have surged
Gold has plummeted...
It's hard to say how Bitcoin will perform
Should we defend or take a bold risk?

After extreme negativity comes positivity. Isn't it time for the military to show some pride?

Currently, the low-level oscillation structure seems to indicate a small-scale bottoming.
If the price can successfully break through the resistance zone of the structure, there is hope for a rise.

Stay steady, what awaits us is a rebound market!!!
#BTC

Xiao Yi said that they just cleared the old inventory, and there are still big treasures not shown to Da Mei yet.
And Xiao Yi and Da Mei feel that they are just talking big...

Yesterday, on Friday, the safe-haven asset gold had already moved up.
Risk assets like Bitcoin have been falling for two or three days.

If there can be another drastic drop, I think the bearish power will be about the same.
The current state is that the bearish news has basically been released, and it can't be pushed down much; the selling pressure has greatly weakened.

It's time to look for opportunities and join the bulls = =.
The question is when Bitcoin can break away from risk assets and truly become digital gold...
The future world will not be peaceful...
#BTC

The entire altcoin market is a scam!
It tricks you out of your limited BTC/ETH/SOL and USDT/USDC

The only ones with real future investment/speculation value are
only BTC/ETH/SOL/HYPE/PUMP!
All others can be ignored, overlooked!

When gold and silver, and popular US stocks go live on CEX/DEX
no one will pay for altcoins anymore, providing liquidity

After refreshing the list of hundreds of altcoin projects
all are heading towards a trend of 'going to zero'...
This is truly a collapse of altcoins...

In the future, either focus on a few long-term or swing or short-term investments in BTC/ETH
or retreat, entering US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and A-shares to participate in emerging sectors like AI and robotics
Please do not let the dog project teams take over!🙂🙂🙂
#BTC

The financial report of CRCL is excellent, directly soaring by 35%+
Leading to a rebound in U.S. stocks of cryptocurrency companies, those holding shares in COIN saw a direct increase of 13.52%

BTC was also driven to experience a wave of rebound, with a maximum increase of 9%+, closing the day with a rise of 6%+
To be honest, this is also why everyone is trading U.S. stocks...
BTC has grown large, and its volatility has indeed decreased a lot compared to before, and liquidity has also significantly decreased

The individual stocks in the U.S. market are so compliant, and both liquidity and volatility are quite good
Thus, the attractiveness of the cryptocurrency market has indeed greatly diminished...

I have been paying attention to CRCL since it was listed
However, it is obvious that many people entered the market too early...
But it doesn't matter, the final result determines the outcome

In the long run, CRCL's model is a good business
However, it is also affected by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the overall trend of cryptocurrency

Currently benefiting from the positive impact of the fundamental financial report, it has surged
The two potential future paths have the highest possibilities
In the short term, funds are chasing after the good news, looking to see if the price can break above $90

After this wave, I still believe it is highly likely to enter a larger adjustment cycle
This wave of decline may have ended, and $50 might be the bottom of this round
However, if the entire cryptocurrency market continues to be in a low mood, CRCL is unlikely to break new highs in a large single direction, and it is suitable for high selling and low buying in waves~

However, in the next round of the cryptocurrency bull market, it will definitely be one of the strongest leaders in cryptocurrency U.S. stocks...
#BTC

I think the market is overly pessimistic...

Wu Jihan has liquidated his Bitcoin
"Insider Brother" suffered a loss of over 200 million and then liquidated his long-term spot Bitcoin
Even the old OGs have seen Bitcoin drop to 20,000 USD in this bear market

Is the market really that bad?
I don't think so...
It's just that liquidity has withdrawn significantly
But if you want liquidity to return, it can be quick...

Last October, I said the bear market had arrived, and a bunch of people didn't believe me and cursed fiercely
Later I said that 70,000 USD couldn't be bought for the time being, and now it has been hovering below 70,000
But in fact, the price of Bitcoin has already reached my target area
I sold at over 110,000, and now the price is close to being halved, which is still good for long-term investors
It's just that no one has ever let people buy in one go or leverage up
At this position, buying spot Bitcoin in batches for the medium to long term is quite stable

How do I plan to buy in the current market situation?
Either another wave of new lows reaching over 50,000, and then decisively bottom-fish!
If you don't dare to bottom-fish at that position, I advise you to exit the circle directly

Or wait for the passage of time, in the second quarter of 2026 the Federal Reserve chair will change, and Trump will put some pressure, starting expectations for rate cuts that exceed the market
By then, regardless of whether the price breaks new lows, I plan to buy!
Of course, it's best to buy below 70,000 USD...

So, either wait for a more advantageous price or follow the changes in the fundamentals over time
Anyway, for now, doing nothing is the optimal solution!

In fact, I have also said that if you have experienced from April to October 2023 and March to October 2024
You will know that when a real bear market comes, the difficulty and market sentiment will be over 2 times that of those two phases...

What's there to be pessimistic about?
It's not the first time...
Of course, for ordinary people, the period of dividends has passed, and making money will be more difficult in the future
The traders who made big money in this round are shifting to other markets, which is a suitable choice
Just like the global hot money flow caused by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy
Only by following liquidity can one truly make big money

But in crypto, there's no need to be so pessimistic, for those who still hold on.
#BTC

The market has only recently entered a 'bear market', right?
But it feels like the sentiment has already entered a deep bear phase...
Various conflicts and controversies surrounding traffic are emerging one after another.

To be honest, just watching the drama is indeed overwhelming and quite entertaining.
However, this kind of meaningless garbage information only occupies attention and has no real value.

For us small investors, we just need to know
That all exchanges, project parties, and various institutions in the crypto market have their dirty laundry...
The key is, to what extent, how destructive, and whether the future is relatively reliable.

I believe that the only ones in the entire market that can be considered 'clean' are the secondary traders (small investors, mid-tier investors, non-controlling large investors, institutional players) who make money from BTC and ETH trends and fluctuations.
I think these types of people in the market are relatively pure.
But these people are inherently the vulnerable group providing liquidity to the market.
It's already a rare occurrence to have one A8 emerge from the crowd.

In any case, for us small investors, it's enough to know where our ecological niche lies.
Then slowly accumulate knowledge and fight our way through.

Alright, it's time to prepare for the New Year.
Wishing everyone a happy Spring Festival in advance (*^▽^*)
#BTC

I don't have much hope for 2026
Should I wait until the second half of 2027?

I believe that some technological innovations and their application require sufficient time
Often measured in years
So, waiting another two years would already be quite fast

So, I wonder how many people can wait until that time?
Or, will the basic fundamentals and technological iterations lead to a dimensionality reduction that simply won't happen...

However, I'm looking forward to the vision that Boss Jiang once mentioned about ETH reaching $20,000
🤣🤣🤣

Because so far, I haven't made big money from shorting in a downtrend
🙃
#BTC

The restoration of confidence requires sufficient time
While the collapse of confidence only takes a moment

The current cryptocurrency circle is fragmented, with severe capital outflow
Even someone like me, who is used to lying in the comfort zone, wants to go to Hong Kong to get a Hong Kong card to trade U.S. stocks...

How will those big players and institutions with a global perspective choose?
In the past year or two, the AI sector next door has been thriving, while crypto remains stagnant...

Bitcoin has returned to the peak of the bull market from 5 years ago
There is no season for altcoins, only the sacrifice of altcoins...

When CEX/DEX successively launch gold/silver and popular U.S. stocks
Then, almost 99.9% of altcoins in the market have lost their speculative value
If even the value of speculation is gone, how can they not go to zero?

Liquidity will only concentrate on those few weighted coins
It's all about emotional flow trading
But this might also be a paradise for short-term traders...

This round of "bear market" cycle may be more brutal than we expected...
#BTC

The bug from last night around 12 o'clock is really hard for most people to catch...

If you want to make big money
First, you need to be diligent and watch the market for a long time
Secondly, you need to have capital; otherwise, making one or two times profit will only net you a few thousand or tens of thousands of dollars
Finally, you must have the guts; small profits with large capital won't earn much, only large profits with large capital are suitable for participation
But who can know that this bug isn't a trap? Moreover, how much capital can participate needs to be tested

Last night, a friend in the group @ me, but I fell asleep around ten and spent the whole afternoon playing outside...
However, even if I saw it, someone like me couldn't make much money
Those who seized those few minutes to make big profits include A8 and several from A7...

No need to envy others
Some opportunities right in front of you might also be missed
This kind of diligence, plus needing capital and talent, really only suits a small number of chosen people
Only by recognizing oneself can one avoid anxiety~
Then go and seize the wealth that belongs to you~

Or like me, following a friend's trades, making a small profit is already satisfying
I can also be considered as participating in last night's market maker bug, right?
😉😉😉
#BTC

The biggest winner of this round of market crash: Hyperliquid
Token: HYPE

So, will it experience such a market trend?
#HYPE

Have you 'bottomed out' in the spot market?

In recent years, the biggest scam in the world is none other than Bitcoin?

Don't lose heart about Bitcoin!

Because you will realize that there are too many people in this world who do not recognize it and still consider it garbage...

They believe that individual stocks in the A-share market are 'old wine', becoming more fragrant the longer they hold them.
Little did they know, most companies' stocks are just as worthless as our altcoins...

But they feel noble, looking down on Bitcoin with a superior attitude.
Indeed, there is a lot of garbage here, but isn't this just the pot calling the kettle black?
#BTC

Have you noticed that this wave of major declines started with the collective discussion in the English crypto community after the 1011 liquidation event, leading to a massive crash?

Is the English crypto community selling off Bitcoin and Ethereum in disappointment over this incident and fleeing the market?

However, in every bear market cycle, there are always factors that cause many people to lose confidence and exit the space...

Tides rise and fall, people come and go, nothing changes...

Only Bitcoin remains there~

I plan to take out my ancestral 50,000 USDT to buy the dip in Bitcoin
Keep it for 20 years for my daughter
By then
I hope
One Bitcoin = 1 million USD
#BTC

Sold, sold!
I have sold everything I own!

Every single token I had is gone!
I have completely exited the cryptocurrency market, I can't take it anymore!

Radical dumping, manipulation, everything is so intense!
My crypto journey has come to an end!

I am out, nice to meet you all.
Life has dreams, each is wonderful!