Lumos_kolect

Studied over 120 Binance Alphas, constantly new insights each time. The recent gameplay has changed: if the project party has requirements to explain to investors on the contract, then one can completely wait for the selling pressure to end before buying the dip, and then place a bet on the contract, representing the project #CYS #POWER #Irys . The previous post about buying $timi was also based on similar logic. Although I didn't wait for the contract, I still made a small profit.

The reason is simple:
1. In a bear market, Alpha cannot complete VC exits.
2. Binance also needs to maintain its reputation. Recently, there has been a strict crackdown on scam projects, and internal news indicates that more than 10 projects have been rejected by Alpha. New projects generally won't be too hard to track, and if they want to go on the contract, they need to perform well. #ALPHA🔥

#TIMI knows that you want to sign the contract, but there is no need to be in such a hurry #ALPHA🔥

Share a few interesting phenomena: 1. Discussing the contrast before and after the $BEAT civil service contract 2. Similarly, after TGE promotion, $RLS is much more sophisticated than $UAI. UAI's extensive advertisements + top influencers' soft articles are no match for RLS's carefully arranged recommendations from certain secondary bloggers when listing on Coinbase. The latter gained: renowned pumpers + selling + secondary bloggers boosting their performance, it's like Qin Shi Huang eating Sichuan pepper - absolutely winning #ALPHA🔥

A sentiment backtest was conducted on #BTC using recent data from 3000 KOL tweets: In Figure 1, each bar represents the hourly sentiment structure—blue is 'bullish', green is 'bearish', dark color is 'neutral', and orange is the normalized BTC price trend. The results are quite interesting: during this bear market, the price has generally been moving sideways or even slowly declining, but the KOL bullish sentiment has remained high; the bearish green band typically only spikes briefly during moments of panic, only to be quickly overwhelmed by blue sentiment, indicating that although the market is experiencing a bear market, sentiment has not truly fallen into the 'despair zone'.

Looking at the on-chain wallet structure: large whales holding >1K BTC have continuously reduced their holdings recently, while the schools of fish holding 100–1K and 10–100 BTC have been steadily increasing their positions, gradually absorbing the chips thrown off by the whales, even resulting in a slight increase in total holdings—this is a typical mid-bear market turnover: the old money is reducing risk exposure, while players who are more patient and willing to hold long-term are quietly picking up at the bottom.

Putting the two charts together, my conclusion is simple: in the short term, due to optimistic sentiment but with large whales still adjusting their positions, the price is likely to continue oscillating within a range, with more to come. However, from a mid-term perspective, chips are migrating from emotional large wallets to more distributed, volatility-tolerant wallets, which is the most critical structural change before the next round of market movement. The entire process is commonly referred to as 'washing the盘'.