亮哥玩币

Is this true or false? $RIVER
Is there anyone brave enough to go head-to-head?

$RIVER
15-16.5 batches of light positions to go long! Looking at 24-28. Light positions, everything is not certain.

$RIVER
Brothers! 16.5-18.5 can enter the market with a light position to go long, first target 24, second target 28. Light position!

Thank you for the big red envelope from Binance #贺新春币安狂撒千万美金 $ETH
$BTC

$RIVER
Predict how much this wave of correction can reach between 16.5-18.5, and then the rally may reach around 28. It can correct to around 17, and you can build positions in batches to go long, but be sure to keep it light, this coin is very volatile, nothing is absolute!

Trading Strategy $ETH

1. Trend Following Short (Main Strategy)

Entry Conditions: Price rebounds to the 1,980–2,000 range, and trading volume decreases, unable to break the previous high.
Position: 10%–15% of total funds.
Stop Loss: 2,020 (breaks the previous high, trend reversal).

Take Profit:
First Target: 1,890 (breaks the recent low, confirms continuation of the bearish trend).
Second Target: 1,750 (extreme situation, requires market sentiment to cooperate).

2. Short-term Long (Auxiliary Strategy, only suitable for aggressive traders)
Entry Conditions: Price retraces to the 1,910–1,920 range, and there is significant buying support (e.g., long lower shadow, increased trading volume).
Position: 5%–10% of total funds (strict control).
Stop Loss: 1,890 (breaks the recent low, abandon long position).
Take Profit: 1,980–2,000 (rebounds to resistance level, decisively exit).

3. Wait-and-see Strategy (Cautious Traders)

If the price continues to oscillate in the 1,890–2,000 range with low trading volume, one can choose to wait and see for clear trend signals (e.g., volume breakout or breakdown).
Avoid frequent trading in the oscillating range to reduce unnecessary fees and slippage losses.

Trading Strategy $BTC

1. Trend Following Short (Main Strategy)

Entry Conditions: Price rebounds to the range of 68,000–68,500, with shrinking volume and unable to break previous highs.
​Position: 10%–15% of total funds.
​Stop Loss: 69,000 (break above previous high, trend reversal).
​
Take Profit:
​First Target: 65,000 (break below recent lows, confirming continuation of bearish trend).
​Second Target: 62,000 (extreme case, market sentiment must cooperate).

2. Short-term Long (Auxiliary Strategy, suitable only for aggressive traders)

Entry Conditions: Price retraces to the range of 65,500–66,000, with obvious buying support (such as long lower shadows, increased volume).
​Position: 5%–10% of total funds (strict control).
​Stop Loss: 65,000 (break below recent lows, abandon long position).
​Take Profit: 67,500–68,000 USDT (rebound to resistance level, decisively exit).

3. Wait-and-See Strategy (Conservative Traders)

If the price continues to fluctuate in the range of 65,000–68,000, and the trading volume is low, one may choose to wait and watch for clear trend signals (such as breakout with volume or breakdown).
​Avoid frequent trading in the fluctuation range to reduce unnecessary fees and slippage losses.

Speculate on the next performance of $PIPPIN :

Retracement target range (from the perspective of the dealer)

First support level: 0.47–0.48
This is the lower edge of the recent consolidation platform and also the psychological defense line for the whales/smart money bulls. There will be buying support if it retraces to here.
​
Second support level: 0.39–0.4
Corresponding to the average opening price of the whales and smart money bulls, this is a strong support level. If it breaks below, it will trigger long position stop-losses, and dealers generally will not easily let the price drop below this level.
​
Extreme retracement level: 0.33–0.34
If market sentiment deteriorates severely, it may drop to near the short position opening price, but the probability is low because the short positions are suffering significant losses, and dealers will avoid triggering large-scale short position liquidations.

 

Next rally target range

First target level: 0.56–0.58
Breakthrough of the previous high of 0.558, releasing the trapped positions above while attracting follow-up buying.
​
Second target level: 0.65–0.7
If market sentiment cooperates, the dealer will pull it up to this range to complete the selling.
​
Extreme target level: 0.80–0.85
The probability is slightly smaller, but one must avoid heavy positions and reckless actions.

Speculate on the next actions of the dealer $RIVER :
1. Cleaning phase (pullback)

First, slightly push down to around 20.5 to test support, while clearing short-term floating chips.

If there is insufficient support, further drop to 18.5, trigger some stop-loss orders, and quickly pull back to create a "false breakout".

2. Accumulation phase (oscillation)

Oscillate in the range of 19–21, through repeated up and down fluctuations, forcing the indecisive bulls and bears to hand over their chips.

Take advantage of the positions of the whales and smart money, placing orders at key price points to control price fluctuations.

3. Surge phase (distribution)

Break through 22 with increased volume, attracting technical traders to follow the trend, quickly pushing up to above 24.

Distribute in batches in the range of 24–28, while using a small amount of funds to maintain the price, creating the illusion of a "strong uptrend".

When trading volume shrinks and following orders are insufficient, decisively push down and exit to lock in profits.
Wait for the next low position chips, and once again surge and distribute, repeating this process.

Reasonably speculate on the callback of $RIVER and the next round of upward points range.

Callback target range (from the perspective of the dealer)

First support level: 20–20.5
This is the lower edge of the recent fluctuation platform and also the psychological defense line of whales/smart money bulls. There will be buying support when it pulls back to here.
​
Second support level: 18.3–18.5
Corresponds to the average opening price of whales and smart money bulls, which is a strong support level. If broken, it will trigger bull stop-losses, and dealers generally will not easily allow the price to fall below this level.
​
Extreme pullback level: 16–16.5
If market sentiment deteriorates severely, it may test near EMA99, but the probability is low, as the losses for bears are huge, and dealers will avoid triggering large-scale bear liquidations.

 

Next upward target range

First target level: 24–25
Breakthrough the previous high of 24, freeing the trapped positions above while attracting follow-up orders.
​
Second target level: 28–30
If market sentiment cooperates, dealers will pull it to this range to complete the distribution.
​
Extreme target level: 32–35
This may only be triggered under the condition that overall retail investors are extremely bullish, with a slightly lower probability.

$RIVER
I am just making reasonable speculations from the perspective of the dealer. If you think I'm talking nonsense, you can ignore this. If you think what I'm saying makes sense, you can follow me! This time it was basically consistent with my speculations, breaking the previous high, reaching 24, and then quickly retracing. So what point will the next retracement reach? How high will the next rise go? Please stay tuned for the next post for a detailed analysis!

$PIPPIN Potential Scripts Ahead

Phase One: High-Level Fluctuation
Action: Wide fluctuations in the 0.5-0.6 range, with quick ups and downs.
​
Purpose:
​To clear short-term profit-taking positions and indecisive bulls, forcing those chasing highs to relinquish their chips during the fluctuations.
​Test the strength of selling pressure above to choose the optimal points for subsequent selling.
​
Performance:
​After multiple false breakouts at 0.56, quickly retreating to form a 'double top' or 'head and shoulders' prototype.
​Frequent order cancellations and placements on the order book create a false sense of liquidity.

Phase Two: Inducing Buying and Selling
Action: Gradually sell in batches within the 0.55-0.65 range, transferring chips to retail investors chasing highs.
​
Purpose:
​To cash in on profits from early low-position chips and lock in gains.
​To make buyers mistakenly believe it is a 'healthy pullback,' encouraging them to hold on.
​
Performance:
​Prices slowly decline with slight rebounds, forming a 'continuation of decline.'
​Social media releases statements like 'long-term optimistic' and 'target price 1+' to stabilize morale.

Phase Three: Deep Correction
Action: Breaking key support levels (such as EMA25, 0.4) triggers panic selling.
​
Purpose:
​To harvest the bulls chasing highs, forcing them to cut losses at low levels.
​To collect cheap chips for the next round of upward movement.

Next, the dealer performs a script $RIVER

Phase One: Short Squeeze Induced Buying
Operation: Rapidly raise to the 20.5-21.0 range, breaking through the previous high near 21.348 to create the illusion of a 'main upward wave'.
​
Purpose:
​Trigger short stop-loss/liquidation, eat away floating loss chips.
​Attract technical traders and chasing funds to enter the market, raising the average market cost.
​
Performance:
​Break through key resistance levels with increased volume, combined with positive news, place large buy orders on the order book, creating a strong visual impact of buying pressure.

Phase Two: Volatile Wash
Operation: Wide fluctuations in the 20.0-21.5 range, with rapid upward and downward spikes.
​
Purpose:
​Wash out short-term profit positions and indecisive bulls, making those chasing the rise give up their chips in the volatility.
​Test the intensity of selling pressure above to choose the optimal point for subsequent unloading.
​
Performance:
​After multiple false breakouts at 21.348, quickly fall back, forming a 'double top' or 'head and shoulders' prototype.
​Frequent order cancellations and placements on the order book create an illusion of liquidity.

Phase Three: Induced Buying and Unloading
Operation: Gradually unload in the 21.0-22.0 range, passing the chips to retail investors and smart money chasing the rise.
​
Purpose:
Realize profits from previously low-position chips, locking in gains.
​Make the buyers mistakenly think it is a 'healthy correction', continuing to hold.
​
Performance:
​
Prices slowly decline with minor rebounds, forming a 'continuation of the downtrend'.
​Social media releases statements like 'long-term optimistic' and 'target price 80+' to stabilize market sentiment.

Phase Four: Deep Correction
Operation: Break key support levels, triggering panic selling.
​
Purpose:
​Harvest the bulls chasing the rise, making them cut losses at low points.
​Collect cheap chips for the next round of upward movement.
​
So, as a retail investor, do you know how to operate now?

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1. You can invest this money in the U.S. stock market.
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$ETH

If you are the dealer of $PIPPIN , your next daring move is:
1. Lock in profits: Gradually cash out the long positions built around 0.3 at the high point of 0.5+.

2. Harvest following orders: Lure new longs to chase high while making old longs reluctant to sell, then reverse and crash the market.

3. Create volatility: Through the cycle of 'luring longs - crashing - luring longs again', repeatedly harvest both longs and shorts.

Specific steps for the 'daring operation'

Step 1: Lure longs and create a false 'breakthrough' illusion

First, slightly push up, break the previous high of 0.532, even pull it to the range of 0.56-0.58, releasing a huge amount of transactions, making the market think 'the main upward wave has arrived'.

With positive news (if any) or community sentiment, attract retail investors to chase high, trapping new longs at high prices.

Step 2: Distribute at high positions, sell in batches

In the range of 0.55-0.6, sell in batches with small orders, avoiding a single crash to prevent panic.

Use 'smart money' data to make retail investors see the illusion that 'whales are still buying', covering the exit.

Step 3: Reverse and crash the market, harvest longs

When the selling reaches a certain level, suddenly break the key support level (such as 0.48, 0.45), triggering a large number of long stop-loss orders.

The price quickly drops to the range of 0.35-0.4, deeply trapping retail investors who chased high, while making the previously profitable old longs panic and exit.

Step 4: Accumulate at low positions, prepare for the next round

In the range of 0.35-0.4, place a large number of buy orders to absorb panic selling and collect cheap chips again.

At the same time, establish short positions at low levels to prepare for the next round of decline or fluctuation.

$RIVER The core goal of the dealer at this time is:

1. Harvesting the trapped longs at high positions: Utilizing their panic emotions to force them to cut losses at low positions.

2. Clearing the profitable shorts: During low-level fluctuations, allowing some shorts to take profits while enticing new shorts to enter, preparing for the subsequent rise.

3. Collecting cheap chips at low positions: Accumulating strength for the next market round.

Based on the above analysis, the dealer will take the following steps:

1. Maintaining low-level fluctuations to wear down the patience of the longs.

Using the current weak pattern to control the price within a narrow range of 15-17U for repeated fluctuations.

Occasionally create small rebounds (like pulling up to 18U) and then quickly smash back down, creating the illusion for the longs that "every rebound is a selling opportunity," ultimately leading them to cut losses in despair.

At the same time, utilizing high negative funding rates to continuously consume the funding costs of the shorts, forcing some shorts to close their positions and exit.

2. Creating a false impression of "breaking position" to trigger stop-loss orders.

After a period of fluctuations, suddenly smashing down to break key support levels (like 15U), triggering a large number of stop-loss orders from the longs.

This will trigger a chain sell-off, and the price may briefly dip to 13-14U. At this time, the dealer can place a large number of buy orders below to absorb these panic sell-offs and complete the chip collection.

3. Rapidly rising to squeeze the shorts.

After collecting enough chips, quickly raise the price to break through the resistance level of 18-20U.

This will cause traders who previously opened short positions at low levels (especially those with costs around 15U) to face unrealized losses, triggering their stop-losses or forcing them to close positions, thus forming a "short squeeze market" and pushing the price further up.

The goal is to pull the price to the 25-30U range, causing most of the low-level shorts to completely liquidate or stop-loss and exit.

4. Distributing at high levels to lock in profits.

After the price rises to the target range, utilizing the warming market sentiment to gradually sell the chips in hand, securing profits.

At the same time, there may be a re-establishment of short positions at high levels in preparation for the next round of decline.

The old plot is finally on stage again

If the funding fee is charged hourly, the short sellers who are stuck will have a hard time, while the long sellers will benefit! The trapped long sellers can recover a bit. Be cautious when shorting! $RIVER