老白

The masterpiece of Cucumber Cat, the best article I've read recently
https://x.com/0xPickleCati/status/2016059049729458207

The most resonant part is the dissection of consensus within it

"Narrative is a story shared by many.
Consensus is the action taken collectively by many.

Narratives are spoken, consensus is acted upon.
Events attract attention, consensus retains crowds.

The way people collaborate and allocate funds has changed forever, this is what is called 'consensus upgrade'.

Be it the ICO of 2017, DeFi of 2020, NFT of 2022, or prediction markets of 2025, all are the same

This reminds me of the article 'This Thing Once Released, the World Cannot Return to the Way It Was Before' by Li Xiaolai that I saw when I first entered the circle, and later I can't recall if it was Old Cat or Wang Chuan who wrote a similar viewpoint, stating that in investment, it is best to find those 'once this thing is invented, the world cannot return to the way it was before'.

Essentially, this is all about the change in people's thoughts and behaviors due to consensus.

Where is the next consensus? I see Cucumber Cat saying she already has ideas, and I am quite looking forward to it.

As for my own judgment, the next major consensus may be an extension based on the current prediction markets, combined with AI, forming a 'Probability Infra' built jointly by humans and AI, or a foundational 'Probability as a Service'. It can serve various needs in insurance, governance, and any place requiring decision-making. More like a decision-making hub + probability layer.

Using Cucumber Cat's diagram, I added a section and created a new one.

It sounds somewhat cold, but with the help of stablecoins and AI, it indeed has the potential to become the first public infrastructure where human judgment on reality reaches consensus with AI agents and money. In the future, many human actions, even when you go out on a date with a newly acquainted girl today, you might ask this Infra, what is the probability of successfully inviting her to the hotel after dinner?

Don't laugh, as I've been chatting with GPT more and more over the past two months, I've found that it truly understands me better, often perfectly anticipating my thoughts and preferences, even my behavioral patterns. When AI understands everyone sufficiently, this kind of probability can theoretically be modeled. In a few days, I'll write a separate piece titled 'AI is Not Just Your CoPilot, It is Also a Mirror for You'.

In the prediction market player group, everyone is playing this game, it's hilarious! Who came up with this genius idea!

I've come up with a project name for a prediction market called PredictAny, and it's now at A9. Let's see if I can reach A12 by tonight!

🎮
PredictAny has reached A9!

📅
Month 26 | ScaleScore: 67.9

🚀
Can I make it to A12? Playing the token issuance simulator right now!

https://web3sim.fun

Although the recent wave of Chinese memes has brought a surge of enthusiasm and profit opportunities, reviving the previously dull atmosphere, we still need to remind everyone to stay defensive and set stop-losses. The market crash that followed the previous boom of Chinese memes a few days ago is still too vivid in our memories.

We hope this time is different, but hope is not enough—let's keep our guard up.

Greed and Panic Index, yesterday 15, today 16

In the past few years, whenever panic enters the range of 10-15, it usually indicates a phase of bottoming out. It doesn't mean that prices will rise immediately, but if you DCA some mainstream coins or altcoins that you believe in within this range, the odds are generally favorable.

For example, a few days ago on X, I saw Allora being widely promoted by top VCs, with a total financing of 35 million, a TGE grand slam, and cooperation with Alibaba Cloud... Of course, some say it's just a rehash of a failed project. This morning, I looked and saw the FDV is only 200 million left; this could be a point to buy a little and bet on a rebound, with a stop-loss in place, since the loss won't be significant anyway, and the potential for an increase could be substantial, even doubling. Otherwise, how will the market continue to hype the narrative of DEAI?

Pure speculation, not investment advice, DYOR

The $Ore that dropped to $180 in the morning might be a good bottom fishing target. A few days ago, it surged to $600, and the protocol's revenue has consistently ranked among the top five on the Solana chain during this period. Recently, a bunch of influential figures overseas have been shilling it like crazy. It has currently rebounded back to $230

However, we need to keep an eye on their revenue chart; if there is a continuous decline over one or two days, we need to consider pulling out.

Bluefin Protocol Revenue Sui Absolute Leader

Protocol profitability is 2-3 times that of MMT, with an FDV only 1/10 of MMT's ???

Either $MMT is severely overvalued, or $Blue is severely undervalued

Sui, a public chain with an FDV of 20 billion, has the Protocol that has ranked first in revenue for a long time, a super application combining Dex and lending derivatives, crazy buybacks of tokens every month, and is now collaborating with companies like SuiG that have close ties to the Sui Foundation, stepping half a foot into the Wall Street circle, FDV 60M?

Then either this chain of Sui will never take off, or Bluefin's market value is bound to rise by an order of magnitude, with no third possibility

$BLUE Up Only!

Last night, Plasma showed the market a face full of shock, and the next object everyone will FOMO into should be @Stable.

After all, Tether has only invested in these two, whether it’s a horse race or raising a spirit, the targets are just these two.

Currently, Stable is lagging behind Plasma in all aspects, from ecosystem development to testnet/mainnet progress, but that doesn’t matter. Just like Arb and OP, whoever goes online first, the other one is likely to "try" to benchmark against you when they launch, at least they won’t be off by an order of magnitude.

Let’s briefly talk about the similarities and differences between these two.

Similarities:
1. Both are EVM compatible, 0Gas to U, high performance, and can both be considered POS chains (although Plasma is a BTC sidechain, it is essentially still a POS).

2. Both are backed by Tether and Bitfinex.

Differences:
1. Investment institutions (apart from Bitfinex) - Plasma is backed by Framework and Founders Fund, while Stable is backed by Hack and Franklin Templeton - Plasma is better.

2. Main style - Plasma obviously leans towards a To C style, with cooperation with Binance, early entry of major DeFi blue chips like AAVE, Plasma One card design, etc. Stable, on the other hand, operates on both To B and To C legs, and various materials clearly show friendliness towards institutions. Recently, the cooperation with Paypal to introduce PYUSD into Stable is the best example.

So currently, it seems that Plasma leans towards To C, Stable combines BC, Tempo leans towards To B, and Arc… it’s hard to say, too early, but it’s likely to be more similar to Tempo and lean more towards To B.

Blindly guessing that @Stable's TGE and mainnet will be around the end of the year.