Rei Researcher

Why I’m Watching Leverage and Funding Right Here

I usually watch Estimated Leverage Ratio and Funding Rate together.

Right now, Estimated Leverage Ratio is still around 0.22, which tells me leverage across the market is still pretty high. A lot of traders are still positioned pretty aggressively.

At the same time, Funding Rate is pretty deeply negative, and the funding EMA is still moving further down in negative territory. That tells me shorts are still in control and still paying longs.

When funding is this negative while market-wide leverage stays high, I lean toward the idea that the market is getting a bit over-shorted. And if we get a positive catalyst from here — for example, something constructive out of the US-Iran talks — there’s a decent chance of a short squeeze that snaps price back up.
$BTC #OnChain

Is ETH quietly tightening supply?

ETH Exchange Reserve (supply on exchanges) has declined from around 35M ETH to 14.9M ETH → a drop of nearly 57%.
Traders are currently showing more of a holding tendency rather than sending ETH to exchanges to take profit or cut losses. The remaining ETH supply on exchanges is now significantly lower compared to the 2020–2021 period.
ETH Inflow to exchanges has increased recently, but the scale is still clearly lower than the peaks seen in 2021–2022 (the previous cycle top).
Past spikes approached the 10M–20M ETH range, while recent clusters are notably smaller compared to those previous cycle peaks.
Based on the data:
ETH Reserve dropping sharply = less ETH readily available for selling on exchanges
Inflow not surging like previous cycles = no signs of extreme deposit pressure (panic selling)
These two charts suggest that ETH’s supply structure on exchanges remains relatively tight:
reserves have dropped significantly, while inflows have not returned to extreme levels seen during prior major distribution phases. Price is currently moving near the lows of previous correction ranges. This may be considered a constructive signal under current conditions.
#ETH #Ethereum

- Open Interest has dropped sharply from a peak of around $43 billion at the end of 2025 to about $22–23 billion and is now at its lowest level in many months. The decline in OI while BTC price has moved only slightly shows that the total amount of leverage in the market has decreased significantly.

- Along with that, the Funding Rate is currently negative, indicating that pressure from sellers is higher than from longs. This is also the lowest level seen in many months, reflecting cautious sentiment and a lack of momentum from leveraged traders.

- In recent weeks, the market has been going through a deleveraging phase. Falling OI together with a negative funding rate is a signal that leveraged positions are being adjusted significantly. BTC is still maintaining within the 70.6k price range. Historically, declining OI and a negative funding rate could very likely be the foundation for a new recovery rally. However, we still need to monitor further geopolitical developments, as they may continue to have a major impact on the market.
#btc #Onchain

Bitcoin and U.S. Capital Flows: Is the Market Quietly Re-Accumulating?

In recent days, Bitcoin data combined with the Coinbase Premium Index has been showing a notable shift in the structure of capital flows.

The Coinbase Premium Index measures the price difference of Bitcoin on Coinbase compared to international exchanges. When the index is positive, it reflects stronger buying pressure from U.S. investors, typically institutional players.

In a bullish scenario, if the Premium Index continues to remain positive and strengthens steadily, the market could enter a new uptrend.

The data is sending a clear signal: smart money is showing signs of returning, but the market is still in a preparatory phase. This could be an important transition period, where long-term positions begin to be built ahead of the next major trend.
$BTC #onchain

Bitcoin is in an interesting spot right now: price has recovered back to the $72.5K area, but funding rates are still negative.

Historically:

• 2017–2018: funding was extremely volatile and highly speculative
• 2020–2021: funding stayed strongly positive, the market was overheated, and long squeezes were common
• 2022: low/negative funding came with a major market downturn
• 2023–2024: funding was moderately positive, rising and cooling off in cycles

At the moment, funding is no longer overheated. That suggests long leverage has been flushed out, short-term speculative sentiment has cooled, and the derivatives structure looks more balanced.

This is not an outright bullish signal yet, but it also does not resemble the kind of euphoric extreme seen in 2021. Most likely, the market is in a cooling-off or rebalancing phase rather than being excessively hot or deeply fearful.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto

Network activity on $BTC is nearing a bottom

- On this chart, $BTC is still holding around $71.4K, while Active Addresses EMA(30) has fallen to roughly 620K. This suggests price is outperforming the level of on-chain participation.
- Historically, this kind of decline has signaled that $BTC is approaching a bottoming zone.
- It is not a confirmed reversal signal yet, but it is a divergence worth monitoring closely if it persists.

#Bitcoin #BTC

It's been a long time since I reviewed this chart Bitcoin Supply in Profit

- The percentage of BTC supply that is in profit has dropped significantly from around ~98-100% at the peak in 2025 to only ~53% currently.

- The market is in a stage of loss realization.
This is often a consolidation area for a strong recovery in history.

- Support at $62K – $65K. If it holds and the macro situation doesn't worsen, the probability of a reversal increases.

#bitcoin #BTC #Onchain

BTC: Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap

- This chart helps to clearly see where short-term holders bought in the most.

- Most STH are underwater, with a tendency to panic sell. This is a typical phase to purge weak hands.

Key support lies around 62-72k. If it holds and shows signs of on-chain accumulation, this could be the foundation for the next recovery. A deeper break will continue the washout.

Closely monitor STH Realized Price ~85k.

In addition, inflation remains persistent (PPI has surged recently), reducing expectations for monetary easing.

BTC's correlation with risk assets (S&P500) remains high → any hawkish signs from the Fed will also pressure prices.
#bitcoin #BTC #OnChain

$BTC Decay Channel Oscillator Update – 25/03/2026

- The oscillator just touched a record low range of ~0–5% after a sharp decline since the peak in 2025

- The range of 0–20% historically often coincides with capitulation / early accumulation phases – where momentum, volume,... weakens significantly, prices test support but also mark the starting point for the next major recovery.

- Currently, the oscillator is at an extremely low level similar to previous cycle lows while the Fear & Greed Index is also deep in Extreme Fear ~10

- The market is in a state of fear + low momentum typical of the washout phase, usually when weak positions are eliminated, laying the groundwork for new momentum

- This is the time to calmly observe on-chain and volume. Low oscillator + Extreme Fear often create the best asymmetric opportunities in the cycle

Bao Tin Minh Chau has changed?

- The Economic Police and Mobile Police simultaneously appeared at major facilities to seize many related documents.

- Numerous large facilities on Tran Nhan Tong and Cau Giay (Hanoi) unexpectedly rolled down their shutters, temporarily halting transactions from around 15:00.

- Notably, in 2024, net revenue reached over 6,952 billion VND (a surge of 396% compared to 2023).

- Profit is too small: Despite high revenue, net profit after tax in 2024 only reached 49.1 billion VND. Although it has increased tenfold from the previous year, the net profit margin remains extremely low, at only about 0.7%.

- As of early 2026, the company has increased its capital to 400 billion VND.

Cleaning up at Gold to welcome a few businesses to work here together.

Notable data for March 2026:

The trading volume of ETF funds accounts for 37% of the total trading volume in the US market (the Tape)
This is the second highest level in history

- Much higher than the period of 2018–2021
- Higher than the record of 2020, 2019
- Individual and institutional investors are trading very actively through ETFs, especially equity ETFs and #Bitcoin
- The current US market is being significantly influenced by ETFs.
- We should remember that the previous rise of BTC was due to ETFs and halving. Will this happen again?

Onchain Signal #3: Signs of Recovery

🚨 Coinbase Premium Index just flipped to -0.01* – a sign that US demand is slightly recovering after a long negative streak!

Coinbase Premium measures the price difference of BTC on Coinbase vs global exchanges:

- Positive (>0): US/institutional buying heavily → usually leads to an uptrend (US whales accumulating).
- Negative (<0): Selling pressure from the US → retail/investor US panic selling or weak demand.

Historically, when the premium flips from negative to positive/near-zero → a relief rally or bottom formation is often observed.

BTC is consolidating around $70K – is this the bottom before a new pump thanks to recovering institutional demand? Or is there still selling pressure?

What do you think? Upcoming pump or continued dump? Drop a comment + chart your opinions!

#bitcoin #BTC #Onchain #CryptoQuant

Onchain Signal #2: Bitcoin: What is the Exchange Whale Ratio saying?

🚨 The BTC Exchange Whale Ratio just spiked to 0.66* – the highest level since early 2026!

Crypto history shows: - When the ratio increases sharply → it often marks a short-term bottom (local bottom) - Peak ratio → signals the start of an uptrend (whales accumulating)

BTC is testing the $69K area – is this the bottom before a new pump? Or are whales still distributing?

What do you think? Further pump or deeper dump? Comment below! 📊🐳

#BTC #Onchain #WhaleRatio

Bitcoin Unrealised Profit/Loss is surging (On-chain signal to watch)
This chart tracks Unrealised Profit/Loss — how much profit (or loss) investors are holding on paper without selling.

Right now, unrealised profit is very high, which often means:

- Many holders are sitting on large gains
- The market can become more sensitive to pullbacks
- Profit-taking risk increases if price loses key support

What I’m watching next

- If unrealised profit stays elevated while price holds → bullish continuation is possible
- If it drops sharply with price → likely profit-taking / distribution phase
- Not financial advice — just an on-chain perspective.
#bitcoin $BTC

#bitcoin Spot Average Order Size (CryptoQuant) is dropping fast while price is selling off.

Usually two scenarios:
(A) Capitulation: aggressive sell pressure, whales stay sidelined for better prices → more shakeout possible.

(B) Stealth accumulation: whales aren’t showing up on spot with obvious “market slams” (may be executing elsewhere) → needs confirmation.

This chart illustrates that "the lowest risk is often where people are most afraid" (when the Sharpe Ratio is negative) and vice versa. 💡
In the long term: $BTC is still in a major uptrend structure, but is currently entering a healthy re-accumulation or correction phase.

🚀 Hyperliquid leads all blockchains in transaction fees over the past 24 hours — surpassing edgeX and Tron!


📊 The data from Artemis shows the strongest activity coming from these top networks:

1️⃣ Hyperliquid

2️⃣ edgeX

3️⃣ Tron

4️⃣ Solana

5️⃣ BNB Chain

6️⃣ Ethereum

7️⃣ Bitcoin


This highlights growing user activity and strong demand across emerging L2 and DeFi ecosystems.
#crypto #blockchain #Hyperliquid

🚀 Big news from @Plume - RWA Chain

Plume has officially acquired Dinero, the creator of ETH’s fastest-growing liquid staking protocol.

This acquisition will significantly expand the RWAfi ecosystem, bringing institutional-grade staking infrastructure for ETH, SOL, and BTC. 🌐

Plume continues to lead the way in bridging RWA and DeFi innovation! 💪

#Plume $PLUME

Good luck to you