老鲍的币风港

11.6 BTC’s daily chart shows a bearish engulfing pattern, signaling another move lower. Market FOMO gets a reality check

Bao’s Crypto Harbor, Episode 404:

The price has fallen back to 75k. It feels like the rally the day before yesterday lifted BTC’s liquidity to another level.

Yesterday, we said to watch for an intraday pullback to 78k. But during the evening session,

there wasn’t the slightest pullback in sight. I changed my strategy from reducing my position at 78k to reducing it on a trapdoor drop.

That’s because the market showed no signs of a rebound, nor did it quickly reclaim the level after a false breakdown.

So today’s price action is expected to set a new recent low on the daily chart.

P.S.:

Long-form videos discuss trends; short-form videos explain the logic. In trading, the most valuable thing is the logic behind a trade, while entry and exit prices are the least important.

The videos I share each day are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Bao’s Crypto Harbor.

11.5 Election results are in; Bitcoin breaks through range resistance. Sideways trading today as markets await the jobs report

Episode 403 of Lao Bao’s Crypto Harbor:

After a false breakdown yesterday, Bitcoin went on to break through resistance

and pushed back up to around 80k, now showing tentative signs of holding steady

Bitcoin is expected to continue consolidating at elevated levels in the short term. With a daily golden cross forming,

shorting still calls for extra caution. Manage your position size carefully; sticking to your chosen direction is the right approach

P.S.:

Long-form videos discuss trends; short-form videos explain the logic. In the trading market, the most valuable thing is trading logic, while entry and exit points are the least important;

The daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Lao Bao’s Crypto Harbor;

11.3 Bitcoin’s volatility is too low; the market is cautiously awaiting the election results

Lao Bao’s Crypto Harbor, Episode 402:

Looking back, since Bitcoin fell from 81,800, it has been consolidating for nearly five days

This is a period of gradual rebound and recovery

Several developments in early November could bring major volatility to the market. For now, it’s the calm before the storm

The current K-line structure supports a downward move, so during the daytime session, try to trade within the four-hour Bollinger Bands

P.S.:

Long-form pieces discuss trends; short-form pieces discuss logic. In the trading market, trading logic is the most valuable thing, while entry and exit prices are the least important;

The daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Lao Bao’s Crypto Harbor;

11.2 Bitcoin’s monthly chart is clearly bearish; the intraday rebound is weak, followed by a direct drop

Lao Bao’s Crypto Harbor, Episode 401:

After three days of sideways consolidation, Bitcoin is still fluctuating around 78k

This week brings the midterm elections and nonfarm payroll data, both of which could indirectly affect Bitcoin’s direction

So we can’t rely solely on candlestick charts to judge the market. But given the current setup, the rebound is getting weaker

So 78.5 and 79.5 are both good short-term entry levels

P.S.:

Long-form content discusses trends; short-form content explains the logic. In the trading market, the most valuable thing is trading logic, while entry and exit prices are the least important things to mention;

The daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Lao Bao’s Crypto Harbor;

10.30 A wave of rampant hacking triggers a black-swan sell-off; Bitcoin’s choppy downtrend is taking shape

Lao Bao’s Crypto Harbor, Episode 400:

I thought yesterday’s market was about to rise, but then a black-swan event hit in the early hours of the morning

and sent Bitcoin plunging. Hackers have indeed been very active lately.

One wave in September, another in October. For now, it seems AI advances are making it increasingly difficult to protect against theft.

So the crypto winter is just around the corner. Be cautious about buying the dip.

P.S.:

Long-form videos discuss trends; short-form videos explain the logic. In trading, the most valuable thing is the reasoning behind a trade, while entry and exit prices are the least important.

The daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Lao Bao’s Crypto Harbor.

10.29 Warsh Dodges the Key Issues in His Speech; Bitcoin Bears Are Building Momentum at Month-End

Lao Bao’s Crypto Harbor, Episode 399:

Yesterday, overall market action was somewhat subdued, with little volatility despite the release of economic data.

Price continued to move sideways within the upper and lower Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart.

Overall liquidity is not particularly high at the moment. The lack of liquidity has directly prevented Bitcoin’s liquidation levels from being reached.

So, in the short term, bears holding short positions at higher levels should stay put. The right move is not to be shaken out early by short-term fluctuations.

P.S.

Long-form videos discuss trends; short-form videos explain the logic. In trading, the most valuable thing is the logic behind a trade, while entry and exit prices are the least important.

Our daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued interest in and support for Lao Bao’s Crypto Harbor.

October 28: Fed Rate Decision Night — Keep a Close Eye on Warsh’s Remarks

Old Bao’s Crypto Harbor, Episode 398:

The overall Bitcoin market has been extremely dull lately, moving in a narrow range between 79 and 81 for three whole days.

It’s clear that the market is cautious, since we have both economic data releases and speeches this week.

The 4-hour chart is moving sideways in a narrow Bollinger Band range, so don’t expect much movement in either direction during the day.

Taking profits and staying safe seems to have become the best trading strategy lately.

P.S.:

Long-form content discusses trends; short-form content discusses logic. In the trading market, trading logic is the most valuable thing, while entry and exit points are the least important.

The daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Old Bao’s Crypto Harbor.

10.27 Bitcoin’s rebound is weak; bears at higher levels can stay seated and buckle up

Lao Bao’s Coin Harbor, Episode 397:

Yesterday, we wanted to re-enter around 815, but the market was too weak and didn’t give us the chance.

So, when things remained weak in the evening, we changed our approach—from trying to force an entry at the highs

to jumping straight in when a weak rebound reached a key level. So far, the results have been decent.

One thing to watch during the day is whether the price can quickly recover after breaking below 79.

If it can’t, the odds of another leg down tonight will increase.

P.S.:

Long-form videos discuss trends; short-form videos explain the logic. In trading, the most valuable thing is your trading logic, while entry and exit points are the least important.

Our daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Lao Bao’s Coin Harbor.

Old Bao’s Crypto Harbor, Episode 396:

Bitcoin’s overall trend was still somewhat weak last week, though the decline wasn’t particularly large.

The market is also speculating about how Wash’s speech this week might affect price action.

The 76.5K target that hasn’t yet been reached on the K-line chart still looks achievable for now.

After the key resistance above was decisively broken through by the candle body, price action over the next few days may continue moving toward the 70K range.

So manage your risk, wait for a pullback, and if you’re short from higher levels, consider holding on for a bit longer.

P.S.

Long-form content discusses trends; short-form content focuses on logic. In the trading market, trading logic is the most valuable thing, while entry and exit points are the least important.

The daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Old Bao’s Crypto Harbor.

10.23 Bitcoin completed its drop in a single day. Can it continue on Friday?

Episode 396 of Lao Bao’s Crypto Harbor:

I only talked about the triangular range yesterday, and then the price went straight down to its target in one go. Honestly, that caught me completely off guard.

Let’s see whether we get a rebound over the weekend and another chance to form a triangular range. If we don’t—or if the price breaks down instead—

then chasing the short will be the only option. I hope it doesn’t come to that; nobody wants to end up looking battered and bruised.

Next week’s rate decision will still hinge on what signals Warsh sends. That guy is even better at talking in circles than Powell.

P.S.

Long pieces discuss trends; short pieces discuss logic. In trading, the most valuable thing is your trading logic, while entry and exit prices are the least important things to dwell on.

My daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Lao Bao’s Crypto Harbor.

10.22 Bitcoin Bears Must Hold Their Ground: Key Levels in the Triangle Range

Lao Bao’s Crypto Harbor, Episode 395:

Prices continue to move sideways at high levels. Every slight dip is immediately followed by a rebound.

This isn’t particularly good news for those of us who have held short positions for a long time.

But the current market is like a frog being slowly boiled: the rise doesn’t feel dramatic, yet prices keep climbing.

Today, we need to watch whether the daily triangle range will act as effective resistance for Bitcoin and push prices down.

P.S.:

Long-form videos discuss trends; short-form videos explain the reasoning. In the trading market, the most valuable thing is your trading rationale, while entry and exit prices are the least important.

The videos published each day are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Lao Bao’s Crypto Harbor.

9.28 The Most Conservative Estimate: When the big cake drops to 805, it rebounds

Old Bao’s Coin Fenggang, Episode 394:

In the past two months, the market has been extremely hard to handle—there have been endless upside breakouts without volume, breaking through the short-squeeze overhead.

So we’ve been getting passively beaten, and the key is that when we do get filled, we also don’t want to run.

Because we’ve lost too much earlier on, it has caused gambling instincts to overpower human nature.

This is very bad. If people in the trading market aren’t calm, they’ll make mistakes.

Making mistakes is giving the other side an opportunity. Let’s all take that as a mutual encouragement.

P.S.:

Talk at length about trends, and briefly about logic. In the trading market, the most expensive thing is trading logic; the least valuable is buy/sell levels.

The daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute investment/trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention to and support of Old Bao’s Coin Fenggang.