I agree with this insight. The essence of investing is volatility—there is never just continuous up or continuous down. The essence is that large capital controls the broader direction, and it uses volatility to obtain the returns it wants. And if oil drops, it’s also normal—a drop over the course of a day or a few days. The key point is 90. In these two days, shorting on the short-term is totally fine.
Also, with Bitcoin rebounding these past two days, if oil doesn’t rise, some retail investors won’t be able to see their expectations being met. They pull out from oil and switch to Bitcoin. A drop in oil is therefore also completely reasonable.
ME AI message: The U.S. now has three “immortals.” One does a T trade for each market. Trump does T trading in crude oil, Bessent does T trading in U.S. Treasuries, and Wašh is even more extreme—he directly does a T trade on the probability of Federal Reserve rate hikes.
On Trump’s side: when Brent crude falls to around $70, he starts increasing pressure on Iran; when oil prices rise above $90, he then looks for ways to cool down oil prices.
Bessent’s watch is the 30-year U.S. Treasury. When yields break above 5.2%, the Treasury starts ramping up buybacks.
As for Wašh—it gets more interesting. When the probability of rate hikes is low, he turns hawkish; when the probability of rate hikes is high, he starts leaving room for a more dovish view in the market.
While others do T trades by watching the candlestick charts, these three are the candlestick charts themselves. (Source: ME)
$TUT $TUT That’s too fake, I’m getting tilted. I bet 1u and I got liquidated. I lost 6u in total
Haha, I just opened another 2u. If you have the nerve, try to tilt me again—at most let me lose 20u and we’ll play. If you liquidate me, a bunch of people will be there with me to cash out together. I won’t lose—being happy is the most important thing. Haha