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🎙️ Choppy upward movement, followed by a small rally and then a pullback. What do you think the direction will be from here? Feel free to join the discussion and share your thoughts. For reference only.
There isn't much market activity on weekends; it remains mostly range-bound. Today also marks the one-year anniversary of the 2025.10.11 Black Swan event—a nightmare for so many people. Even bringing it up still sends chills down your spine. $BTC #1011
🎙️ There are only two rate decisions left this year, and the Fed will announce one at the end of this month. Will the broader market make another move before then? What do you think? Where are the relatively safer opportunities?
Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: There are disagreements over the reasons for rate hikes; another interest rate increase may be on the cards before year-end! The September meeting minutes released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday show that all 19 officials supported the decision to raise rates in September, believing that the rate hike would help guard against further intensification of inflation pressures. In addition, most Federal Reserve officials expect that another rate hike will be necessary before the end of the year. Some participants believe that AI infrastructure development could cause medium-term aggregate demand to exceed supply, thereby adding upward pressure to inflation. The Federal Reserve should also prepare for stress in the bond market.
According to CME “FedWatch,” currently, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged through October is 80.6%, with a 19.4% chance of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged through December is 21.7%, with a 64.1% chance of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points, and a 14.2% chance of cumulative rate hikes of 50 basis points. $BTC
You really can count on Senior Sister Xiaoman! Having the skills makes all the difference—now I feel confident and assured when placing orders. As her assistant, Brother Xiaoze can only stand in awe! $BTC
The Fed’s expectations suddenly shift: the probability of a rate hike in October is slashed in one night by half—what does a 50-50 outlook mean? According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the October policy meeting fell rapidly from 70% the previous day to 50%. Meanwhile, the probability of keeping rates unchanged rose correspondingly—whether the Fed hikes rates or not has now entered a 50-50 standoff. In just one day, market pricing underwent a dramatic reversal. Previously, the market was still pricing in a high likelihood of further hikes in October: U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index continued to strengthen, and global risk assets faced pressure. But as Fed officials delivered dovish-leaning remarks, along with a drop in oil prices and weaker U.S. consumer confidence, traders quickly scaled back their rate-hike bets—market sentiment flipped instantly. This doesn’t mean the hiking cycle has fully ended; rather, expectations have diverged sharply. On one side, U.S. inflation has not yet fully returned to the target range. Energy prices continue to swing, and the risk of an inflation rebound remains. The Fed has not completely ruled out the option of a rate hike. On the other side, the U.S. economy and the consumer sector have already shown signs of weakness. Officials have also said there is no need to raise rates again immediately, allowing more time to observe the economy—creating the current dilemma. With expectations dropping from 70% to 50%, global markets face two direct impacts. $BTC #FOMC
The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to continue raising rates in October. According to the latest calculations from the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in October is between 64.8% and 68.1% (the figures differ slightly at different time points). The probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is around 31.9% to 35.2%. $BTC
Refer to the previous bull market: before the main breakout rally... Will there be another deep pullback to shake out and flush positions? If so, it will be a chance to pick up bloodied tickets. $ETH
The full moon graces the sky above, and everything is going splendidly in the human world. Lan Ting wishes you a smooth rise in your career like the moon climbing higher, a sweet life like honey, good health and peace for your whole family, and happiness to stay with you for a long time. #中秋节快乐
🎙️ Watching videos while waiting for [One Piece: Summit War], I was bearish during the live broadcast yesterday afternoon, and the market came as expected. Pullbacks are what make a healthy uptrend.
Market rises and falls—get used to it! A healthy uptrend will always include pullbacks. The market can’t keep rising forever, and it won’t keep falling forever either. $BTC