景航

【Market Quick Review】

I. Reasons for the Decline
Geopolitical tensions escalate; Iranian merchant ships were attacked, boosting risk-averse sentiment in the market. Bitcoin, the US stocks SNDK, and others fell, while ETH’s performance held up relatively better. BTC, SOL, and CRCL pulled back by nearly 10%.

II. Two Major Uncertainties
① September 15: The Clarity crypto bill—about a 30% chance of passage. If it fails to pass, the market may continue to decline; if it passes, it will be a positive catalyst. Therefore, be prepared for both long and short scenarios.
② Uncertainty remains regarding a rate hike by the Fed next Wednesday. Current market expectations lean toward a rate hike, which is bearish for the crypto market.

III. Market Viewpoints and Trade Recap
• In the long run, the crypto market is still at low levels; the estimated top target for Bitcoin is 170,000–200,000.
• The late Friday evening rally was the window to exit before the top. At that time, all long positions were advised to be fully taken profit, and then a short position was opened in the opposite direction. $BTC #Clarity法案9月15日程序性投票

BTC 76850-76650 try it a bit more. It will start entering when the limit order triggers
Stop loss: on the hourly timeframe, if this morning’s bullish candle is engulfed and price breaks below 76400
Take profit: 77500-78050-78800

RAY watch 2.3-2.4 for a quick spike (pin). You can take a small position to try. The pin is the pullback here—don’t chase a long.

$BTC $RAY

📌 ETH Ethereum Today Strategy Reference｜Dual-Sided Plan (Short/Long)

As market conditions move quickly, the following is my personal short-term trading ideas for discussion and reference. Please execute all levels flexibly based on the real-time order book. Be sure to control position size and strictly set stop-losses.

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🔻 Short Trade Idea

Asset: ETH Ethereum
Direction: Short
Entry: Around 2482
Averaging/Adding Zone: 2497 - 2503
Stop-Loss: 2518
Suggested Take-Profit: 2463 - 2441 - 2420 - 2398 - 2381 - 2362

❤ You can take profit in batches; manage it yourself.

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🔺 Long Trade Idea

Asset: ETH Ethereum
Direction: Long
Entry: Around 2383
Averaging/Adding Zone: 2365 - 2359
Stop-Loss: 2343
Suggested Take-Profit: 2402 - 2425 - 2447 - 2465 - 2487

❤ You can take profit in batches; manage it yourself.

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⚠️ Warm Reminder

· All levels may fluctuate by about 2 - 3 USD above or below—adjust flexibly according to real-time price.
· Recommend taking profit in batches; don’t be greedy—lock in gains.
· Strictly place stop-loss orders and control risk with position sizing.
· The above reflects my personal views only and is for reference—does not constitute investment advice.

#ETH #Ethereum #TradingStrategy #行情分析📈

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BTC Market Daily Analysis
Chart 1: Daily Candlestick Chart
1) 795 has broken down, as I’ve been saying we were consolidating at the top, and now that it’s broken down, we might be heading towards a bearish P03. Of course, if we break below 748, it’ll be fully confirmed; there are signs pointing that way.
2) The clarity bill currently has some division, but the outcome will depend on tonight's vote, and then we’ll see what kind of favorable deal Trump manages to broker.

For trading, there are two options: first, look for a buying opportunity around 785 to accumulate; second, keep an eye on the 805-810 range for a shorting opportunity.

Let's see if BTC can break through 80650 on the 15-minute chart this morning. If it does break, I'll set a short order at 82000.
Stop Loss: Must stay above 82800 on the 15-minute chart.
Take Profit: 81500-81050-80500.

During this process, keep an eye on 81350, which is another minor resistance level. If we can't get past this, we could see a top formation and I'll open a short here.

If it's a false breakout at 80650, I’ll look for a dip to 79800 to go long. Mark these levels as reminders: $BTC

BTC near 80450 Short
Stop Loss: Hold above 80800 for 15 minutes
Take Profit: 80000-79300-78900-76000 are daily support levels

BTC If it drops straight down, look for a bounce around 77950
Stop Loss: Effective break below 77000 on the hourly
Take Profit: 78450-78800-79450-80500

ETH Place a buy order around 2195 for a bounce
Stop Loss: Effective break below 2150 on the hourly
Take Profit: 2225-2265-2305-2375

Currently, BTC has formed a top pattern at this critical point, which is not what bulls want to see. The average candlestick has also formed a doji, so keep an eye on that. However, this doesn't mean the market is completely doomed; it just suggests a potential daily level pullback since Bitcoin hasn't had a proper Fibonacci retracement from 65000 to 83000 yet.

The S&P 500 is also showing a daily top pattern near the 1.618 level. If it didn't pull back at 1.13 and isn't pulling back at 1.618, this bullish trend has a smaller probability.

So moving forward, keep an eye on the S&P for a pullback around 1.618, and for Bitcoin, look for a pullback around this 83000 resistance level. Wait for the daily level pullback to key points before going long; shift the strategy to short for now. If the market rebounds, just go with the flow and take some short positions on the right side.

If the market is to continue dropping, there likely won't be any significant rebounds, maybe just slight dips followed by small bounces before continuing to consolidate downwards. Currently, the broader market looks like this, and it's likely not at the bottom yet. Keep shorting at highs or consider right-side trading shorts $BTC
$ETH
#

Asset: ETH
Direction: Short
Aggressive Entry: 2319
DCA: 2335-2341
Stop Loss: 2362
Suggested Take Profit: 2298-2277-2253-2229-2212-2188
❤: Take profit at your discretion
❤: All levels fluctuate 2-3 USD up and down
❤: Personal opinion, for reference only

Direction: Long
Aggressive Entry: 2255
DCA: 2236-2230
Stop Loss: 2216
Suggested Take Profit: 2271-2290-2305-2326-2348-2367-2388
❤: Take profit at your discretion
❤: All levels fluctuate 2-3 USD up and down
❤: Personal opinion, for reference only

Recently, this short-term strategy has a high win rate. Profit as you see fit. If you don't want to exit, you can set a stop-loss at cost. Cost stop-loss $ETH

ETH Market Analysis

The daily chart shows a long upper shadow with a small bearish candlestick, as prices retrace near the 2300 mark. We've hit a high, but momentum is clearly lacking for any bullish follow-through. Overall, ETH's rebound continues to lag behind BTC, and there’s no active bullish attack in sight.

Currently, buying interest is weak with scarce new capital entering the market. The price increase is merely a passive correction tied to BTC's movements, not driven by its own bullish strength. In the medium term, we remain in a weak rebound phase within a downward structure, and the bullish foundation is not solid. There’s strong selling pressure from trapped positions above.

Going forward, ETH's price action is highly correlated with BTC's rhythm, lacking independent catalysts for a rally. There’s clear resistance in the 2400 range above, while key support is at 2250 below; focus on the 2350 level for intra-day trading.

Against BTC, watch the 8150—8200 range. If both markets stabilize and hold, we can expect a continued correction and rebound. However, if this correlation breaks down and the oscillation range fails, ETH is likely to weaken first and lead the market pullback. $ETH

Right now, the market isn't showing any solid rebound. If you're looking to go long, aim for right-side trading and keep it short-term. Watch BTC around the 80k mark for a few hundred points to see if there's any bounce. If it breaks down, keep an eye on the 78-79 range. For ETH, it should be around the 2250-2280 range $BTC

Tonight's main strategy: Shorting in the range for quick trades
🎯 Aggressive Long Positions
Entry: 2393-2382
(If there's a bounce around 2390, consider going long with a light position on the right side)
📉 Short Position Plan
Direction: Bearish
Aggressive Short: 2422
Add to Position: 2443-2448
Stop Loss: 2465
Take Profit in Batches: 2398 → 2377 → 2353 → 2329 → 2312 → 2288
❤ Manage your take profits flexibly, all levels fluctuate by $2-3
❤ Personal opinion, for reference only $ETH

ZEC pumped 24% in just 2 days, from around 317 to 393. Those who have tracked this coin know it has been consistently volatile with significant price swings. It has repeatedly staged pumps and dumps of around 20% in the short term. There's some risk involved, but the potential profit is much greater than with other coins, as well as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Trading suggestion: Short between 397 and 410, with a stop-loss at 427 and take profit at 300$ZEC

Currently, both BTC and ETH have shown the least desirable stagnation and pullback pattern on the daily chart. Unless we see a strong bullish candlestick reclaiming BTC above 78500-79000 today or tonight, the daily adjustment phase is likely already in motion. In the short term, it's advisable to adopt a bearish mindset. Control your positions strictly, using small size, entering in batches, and taking profits in phases.
For BTC: Consider adding short positions lightly during rebounds around 77200-77500, or continue holding existing shorts near 78500. Set your stop-loss at a solid hourly close above 79000. For taking profits, consider reducing your position by 20-30% initially at 78000-77500, then further reduce at 76800-76500, and keep an eye on support levels at 75000-74500 and 72150-71500, gradually locking in profits.
For ETH, focus on the 15-minute chart; you can start with a light initial position near 2290-2305. If it rebounds to the resistance area of 2310-2317 and fails to break 2330, consider adding to your position. Set a stop-loss at a solid 15-minute close above 2330 (keeping it within a few points). For taking profits, consider reducing by 30% initially at 2297-2285, then look to gradually reduce at positions like 2260-2250 and 2230-2200. If ETH continues to follow BTC's adjustment, watch for the 2150-2100 zone.
The core of the overall strategy is lightweight positions, strict stop-losses, and phased profit-taking, with a strategy of quick in and out. If today we can't reclaim critical resistance levels (BTC78500+ and ETH2330+), continue pushing forward with the bearish plan. Be mindful of controlling overall risk; total position size in BTC and ETH should not be too heavy. $BTC
$ETH

At the moment, ETH 2285’s raid is determined by this level: will it bounce back above 2230, or will it continue to fall? After the raid, you then watch the 2250 support to test.

In the end, the large triangle will choose upward and then move down.
After it went up and tested 2400, that provided a short opportunity.
Then it came down to 2300—eql has already been raided.
Next it came down to 2385 eql.
Then watch 2350 here: will SSL make a raid, or will OB support it and bounce upward to continue ranging $ETH

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Bitcoin BTC
Direction: short - medium/long term - enter in batches
Entry: build a position at the current 78,000–78,500; add more around 81,000 and 83,000
Multiplier: 2x
Position size: 10% each time
Take profit: hold until one week after the Fed’s interest rate decision meeting. Take-profit level 1: around 74,300 (safer). Take-profit level 2: around 71,000
Stop loss: one week after the Fed’s interest rate decision meeting.
Reason: the Fed’s interest rate decision meeting is approaching—set up the short position in advance; after the meeting, hold for about one week. Also, BTC is currently at a relatively high level, so it’s suitable to set up the trade in batches.
Personal thoughts: when placing orders, don’t place them at whole numbers—it’s harder to get filled. Placing the orders a bit below the resistance zone makes them easier to fill. Since there are many fake breakouts and fake breakdowns, to guard against this, set the stop loss a bit higher, lower the risk-reward ratio, and significantly increase the win rate to execute the trade.$BTC

Weekend Strategy For Reference Only

BTC is currently seeing the 1-hour Bollinger upper band shift downward from yesterday to 78,000. Support is at 77,200–76,925.

There is no divergence on the daily chart. There is divergence over the next 6–12 hours, but the downward momentum is not strong for now. Pullbacks are a weak corrective move. Between 77.7 and 77.5 there are three support points, and most of them show rebound behavior. So going long on dips is still OK for the short term.

Go long 76,750–76,350. Take profit at 77,450–77,650. Defensive level: 76,000.

If 78,000 does not break, consider a short near 77,925. If it breaks, short at 78,300–78,500. Take profit at 77,455–77,255. Defensive level: 78,700.

ETH is overall weak, but the correction力度 is also not large. The 1-hour Bollinger lower band has risen from 2298 to around 2309. Support around 2300 is relatively strong, so it is more likely to “fake-break” than to “truly break.” After Wednesday evening’s big rally, the daily chart shows some divergence, but the downside momentum is still not strong. Support is at the Bollinger middle band 2292 (from 2284 two days ago). Next support is 2250 (the main “defense needle”). Unless there is a major negative catalyst, it is not likely to pull back to this level.

Buy the dip 2288–2252. Take profit at 2322–2328. After a break above 2330, look toward 2366–2400. Weekend volatility is limited—mainly stay on the sidelines. Reduce exposure and set defense at 2249.

Do not chase shorts below 2310. For 2322–2330, you can short with a small position. Take profit near 2304–2296. Stop loss: 2340.

SOL: 85.25 and 84.85–83.85 are both good dip-buy entries. 88.5 and 89.25 are short-long take-profit points. No major changes for now—keep holding longs from dip entries, with defense at 81.

Short entry points: 89.2 (after it arrives, take profit on the pullback at 87.25/86.85). Defense: 90.6$BTC
$ETH
$SOL

The TRUMP dinner kicks off tonight at 8 PM and wraps up by 3 AM tomorrow.
So, we’re looking to take profits around 6 PM to 10 PM, then flip to short. Make sure to set up those short positions by 3 AM at the latest. If the price pump isn't significant, the drop on shorts won't be either, so we can scale back on our positions a bit.
Ideal exit points are just below the resistance levels at 3.4 and 3.8, and of course, we can also take some off around the small resistance at 3.0.
$TRUMP

The peak of this round of BTC rise, the focus next is on the 3-day line, 5-day line, and weekly level pullback strength. Sort out the key pressure points after the breakout in advance, so everyone is aware and those with a plan can place high short orders at highs.
I am currently only looking to short, I would rather be trapped at high positions than give up on shorting at highs.

Key pressure points (gradual shorts)

- 75450: 2-day line pressure + intraday double top, has been touched twice, can try shorting, the probability of a false breakout here is extremely high
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- 76600–76850: Monthly EMA30 resistance, can place small position short orders, take profit undecided
​
- 77650–77700: Weekly BOLL middle track, can layout normal position short orders, take profit undecided
​
- 78850–79300: 5-day line strong pressure, must short area
​
- 79825: 3-day line strong pressure, must short area
​
- 82600: Ultimate pressure point within April, clear all remaining long positions, take profit gradually for short to medium-term spot, must exit long positions

In the big direction, shorting in the range of 75,000–80,000 has the highest cost performance. $BTC

RAVE Price Movement Analysis and Future Forecast

1. Current Core Risk: A clear warning of a potential crash has emerged. Currently, major cryptocurrencies are experiencing a collective price surge, with market funds flowing back to leading stocks. These small-cap coins, lacking fundamental support and controlled by large investors, are facing continuous capital outflows and severely insufficient market support.

2. Core Variable in Price Movement: Whether the major investors (market manipulators) have completed their distribution is the sole determining factor for future price movements.

3. Key Price Levels and Two-Way Speculation: Strong support lies around $6, representing a nearly 50% drop from the recent high of $12.46 – a standard halving price.

If the major players haven't finished distributing their shares, the price will likely stabilize at this support level and then rise again to create the illusion of an "end of the pullback," completing their subsequent distribution by inducing more buyers.

If the major players have already finished distributing and exiting, this level will only see a weak rebound with low volume and no sustained buying support. After the rebound ends, the downward trend will continue, and it may even break the low of this round.

$RAVE