Crypto孔明

The latest official progress of blockchain technology's real-world application has released positive signals for the long-term development of the industry. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) and the Shanghai Data Bureau have reached an official cooperation agreement. Both parties agree to deepen the practical application of blockchain technology, with the core goal of simplifying trade financing processes and freight document management through blockchain technology, promoting the large-scale application of blockchain technology in cross-border trade scenarios. This cooperation, led by regulatory authorities from both regions, is an important sign that blockchain technology is truly moving from the realm of cryptocurrency into mainstream physical business applications. It means that blockchain technology is no longer limited to cryptocurrency trading scenarios and is beginning to truly enter the core aspects of global trade, serving the development of the real economy and breaking the market's stereotype that blockchain technology can only be used for virtual asset transactions.

The stock performance of publicly traded companies holding BTC, and its correlation with BTC price movements, has become an important observation dimension in the crypto market. On that day, BTC price rose by about 5%, and the stock price increases of the vast majority of companies holding BTC significantly exceeded that of BTC itself. Among them, MSTR's stock price increased by over 5%, while other related companies saw increases of 8.54%, with some mining-related companies approaching a 10% increase. Reviewing historical trends, when BTC is in an upward cycle, the stocks of these companies holding BTC typically see increases that exceed BTC itself. This is also the core reason why market funds choose to invest in these types of assets, which is to obtain higher elastic returns during BTC's upward trend and to amplify profits in a bull market.

The core inflation data that determines the direction of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed) is a key underlying variable currently affecting the trends in the cryptocurrency market. Among these, the Truflation real-time inflation data, which reacts faster than the official CPI data and has a high level of market recognition, was reported earlier today at only 0.79%, a very low level. Even after the outbreak of conflict over the weekend, market panic pushed up inflation expectations, and this data briefly surged to 1.5%, but just one day later it quickly fell back to 0.79%, sufficient to prove that the current real-time inflation pressure in the U.S. is completely controllable. Reviewing the official CPI inflation data from the past year, the value has consistently remained below 3%, stabilizing in the 2.7% range, further verifying that inflation in the U.S. has been effectively controlled. This is the core basis for subsequent Fed monetary policy adjustments and an important prerequisite for the valuation repair of risk assets.

The formal military conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has become a core variable stirring the global capital markets. Market concerns are focused on the chain reaction of geopolitical situations on commodities, inflation, and risk assets, among which the volatility of oil prices is the most critical transmission chain. Geopolitical military conflicts directly impact the global oil and gold pricing systems. The market is generally worried that Iran will create disputes in the core transportation routes of global oil and continue to attack oil tankers, which will lead to sharp fluctuations in oil prices in the short term. Some opinions suggest that this conflict will push oil prices to continue to rise. From the perspective of historical trends, when oil prices enter a period of skyrocketing, it inevitably corresponds to valuation pressure on BTC. Even if BTC recorded a 5% rebound on the day of the conflict, the pessimistic expectations for the medium-to-short-term trend have not dissipated. The core logic is that if oil prices continue to rise in the medium-to-short term, and gold prices also rise, combined with multiple uncertainties in the geopolitical situation, BTC is highly likely to continue facing selling pressure and valuation downgrade risks in the short term. This is also the core reason for the current market's cautious stance on future trends.

MicroStrategy Incorporated, the publicly traded company with the largest global holdings of BTC, has once again announced its latest increase in holdings. This Nasdaq-listed company, with the stock code MSTR, is led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, a well-known opinion leader in the cryptocurrency industry, and continues to maintain its core strategy of weekly sustained DCA purchases of BTC. In this recent increase, the company bought an additional 3015 BTC, with a total expenditure of approximately 204.1 million USD, translating to an average purchase price of about 67700 USD. This is the first time in recent weeks that the average purchase price has been below the real-time price of BTC; in previous weeks, the market fell after the company's purchases. The cost advantage of this increase is more significant and further dilutes the company's overall holding cost.

MicroStrategy Inc. Co-founder and Executive Chairman Michael J. Saylor has released relevant signals, and the company is likely to announce a new round of BTC accumulation in the near future. Last week, the company just completed a small accumulation of hundreds of BTC, and the scale of the new round of accumulation has become the core focus of the market. Even though the market is in a significant decline period of BTC price retracement, MicroStrategy Inc., led by Michael J. Saylor, continues to accumulate BTC. The preferred stock STRC issued by MicroStrategy Inc., listed on NASDAQ, has a fixed par value of $100 per share, and the annualized dividend yield of this product has been raised from the original 11.25% to 11.5%, with dividends paid to investors monthly.

Driven by market risk aversion caused by geopolitical conflicts, the tokenized gold market has welcomed a large influx of funds during the weekend when traditional financial markets were closed for trading. The two major compliant gold tokens, PAXG and XAUT, have attracted significant capital inflow, resulting in a substantial increase in market liquidity. The total market capitalization of tokenized gold has now reached 4.4 billion USD, compared to only 2.8 billion USD a year ago. Over the past year, the total market capitalization of the tokenized gold market has grown by 1.6 billion USD, and the number of addresses holding tokenized gold has tripled over the year, reaching 115,000. The year-on-year growth rate of the tokenized gold market capitalization is approximately 57.14%.

The Cardano ecosystem officially launched the USDCX stablecoin minting function over the weekend. On the first day, it completed the minting of 14 million USD worth of USDCX. Within just 24 hours, the total market value of the stablecoins in the Cardano ecosystem increased from 33 million to 37 million USD, directly growing to 47 million USD, with a single-day issuance increase of 42%. As of now, within 48 hours of the launch, the total amount of USDCX minted on the Cardano blockchain has surpassed 40 million USD, achieving rapid growth in the scale of the ecosystem's stablecoins. The 42% increase refers to the rise in the issuance volume of the stablecoin, not the price increase. USDCX is a compliant stablecoin issued by Circle, pegged to 1 USD, and its price will not experience significant fluctuations.

BTC closed with a monthly bearish candle in February 2026, dropping approximately 15% in a single month. Since October 2025, BTC has recorded five consecutive months of bearish monthly candles. This is only the second time in BTC's history that there has been a consecutive five-month decline. The last time this happened was during the bear market cycle in 2018, when BTC recorded six consecutive months of bearish monthly candles, setting a historical record. Following that six-month decline, BTC experienced five consecutive months of upward trends.
In response to this rare monthly trend, the market has seen a surge of pessimistic views, with many market participants believing that BTC will continue to decline. The current market situation is seen as just the beginning of a bear market, and the BTC price is expected to keep falling for a long time, possibly not hitting bottom until October 2026. Such pessimistic rhetoric completely ignores the core operating laws of the BTC market. In recent years, there have been clear signs of the market running ahead and starting early. According to the conventional four-year cycle, BTC should have hit bottom in October, but the trend in this cycle will definitely differ from past conventional cycles.

After news related to geopolitical conflicts emerged, the BTC price experienced severe short-term fluctuations. From Friday night to Saturday morning, as the news developed, the BTC price dropped directly from around 67000 USD to a low of around 63000 USD. Subsequently, within half a day, the BTC price quickly rebounded to recover, returning to levels prior to the news release. As of now, the BTC price has started to decline slowly again, and the overall price level is roughly the same as the closing price on Friday. The short-term news impact did not change the overall price trend of BTC, and in just two days of market fluctuations, 1 billion USD in trading funds evaporated from the market.

During the weekend of escalating geopolitical conflict-related news, the cryptocurrency market's short-term trading sector experienced over 1 billion USD in liquidations. On Saturday alone, 300 million USD in long positions and 350 million USD in short positions were liquidated, and within the following 24 hours, the market saw an additional 243 million USD in long position liquidations, along with 156 million USD in short position liquidations. Throughout the extreme market fluctuations over the weekend, both long and short positions faced large-scale forced liquidations, with short-term trading capital suffering significant losses in the rapid price fluctuations, and market sentiment saw drastic swings in response to the news.