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7年crypto经验｜币安广场创作者｜NFT alpha｜主攻Binance涨幅榜｜空投交互撸毛｜热点趋势追踪者｜4年社区运营经验【推特号@knifecrypto1】
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Comparing the three bull and bear cycles: Where might the bottom of this bear market be? What step have we reached now?
Many people are currently most concerned about three questions:
Where will this round of the bear market drop to? Compared to several historical bull and bear cycles, what stage are we in now? Is it a mid-way pause or close to the bottom?
We can start from the past few complete bull and bear cycles to compare structures, rather than just focusing on prices.
1. Review of the past three bull and bear cycles
✅ First round: 2013-2015
Peak: about 1160 USD
Bear market low: about 200 USD
Decline: -83%
Duration of the bear market: about 14 months
Characteristics:
Belongs to the 'primitive cycle', with a small market size, weak liquidity, and extreme declines.
Where will this round of the bear market drop to? Compared to several historical bull and bear cycles, what stage are we in now? Is it a mid-way pause or close to the bottom?
We can start from the past few complete bull and bear cycles to compare structures, rather than just focusing on prices.
1. Review of the past three bull and bear cycles
✅ First round: 2013-2015
Peak: about 1160 USD
Bear market low: about 200 USD
Decline: -83%
Duration of the bear market: about 14 months
Characteristics:
Belongs to the 'primitive cycle', with a small market size, weak liquidity, and extreme declines.
Binance SAFU buys 100 million USD BTC again, ahr999 index falls below the bottom line, has a historical-level signal appeared?
1. Binance's SAFU fund bought 100 million USD worth of Bitcoin for the second time today. Why choose this moment?
Cathie Wood believes that gold is about to fall and plans to convert gold into BTC. While she is still talking, Binance has already executed its previously announced plan, buying 100 million USD worth of Bitcoin yesterday. Today, the Binance SAFU (User Safety Fund) bought another 100 million USD worth of Bitcoin. They have also clearly committed that if BTC fluctuations cause the SAFU market value to drop below 800 million USD, they will continue to replenish to maintain a bottom line of 1 billion.
Binance plans to complete the purchase of a 1 billion position in 30 days. What does this urgency mean?
Cathie Wood believes that gold is about to fall and plans to convert gold into BTC. While she is still talking, Binance has already executed its previously announced plan, buying 100 million USD worth of Bitcoin yesterday. Today, the Binance SAFU (User Safety Fund) bought another 100 million USD worth of Bitcoin. They have also clearly committed that if BTC fluctuations cause the SAFU market value to drop below 800 million USD, they will continue to replenish to maintain a bottom line of 1 billion.
Binance plans to complete the purchase of a 1 billion position in 30 days. What does this urgency mean?
The wealth code is often hidden in historical data
Accompanied by a sharp drop after gold and silver peaked, the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh advocates ending Keynesianism, emphasizing supply-side reform, and reinforcing the bullish logic for copper.
Review the previous two cycles, the time and price trends of gold and silver vs. copper:
1. July 2016 Near the high point of gold and silver → February 2017 Near the high point of copper
In July 2016, gold reached a peak of about $1,366/oz
Silver synchronized surge to about $21/oz (annual high range)
Corresponding copper price:
July 2016 copper monthly average: 4864 USD/ton
February 2017 copper monthly average: 5940 USD/ton
Copper up +22.1%
2. 2020.08 Near the high point of gold and silver → 2021.05 Near the high point of copper
Review the previous two cycles, the time and price trends of gold and silver vs. copper:
1. July 2016 Near the high point of gold and silver → February 2017 Near the high point of copper
In July 2016, gold reached a peak of about $1,366/oz
Silver synchronized surge to about $21/oz (annual high range)
Corresponding copper price:
July 2016 copper monthly average: 4864 USD/ton
February 2017 copper monthly average: 5940 USD/ton
Copper up +22.1%
2. 2020.08 Near the high point of gold and silver → 2021.05 Near the high point of copper
$PAXG Gold here is almost done, you can continue to make regular investments, it has retested the December high, filled two gaps, and a rebound from overselling is about to come
$BTC fell below 80,000. Since October 16, 2023, after 839 days, the Bitcoin ahr999 indicator has first dropped below 0.45 (bottom line), and the regular investment plan has started.
$币安人生 Daily line level short-term opportunities may exist Market price 0.16, bsc Chinese meme trading volume has明显增长
Binance's move to buy $1 billion worth of BTC, although spread over 30 days, has limited direct impact on the market. However, for those short-selling large amounts, this is a strong signal.
This indicates that Binance will be in a net buying position for the next 30 days and will not be selling off. Simply releasing this signal to the market is enough to make some aggressive shorts reconsider.
In fact, since Binance announced the news yesterday afternoon, the holdings of BTC have quickly declined from the peak. This represents a weakening of the downward momentum, and shorts are closing their positions.
The market is a dynamic game process, and shorts cannot determine whether other important players (Justin Sun, Tether) will follow Binance's actions. But the mere existence of this expectation will lead aggressive shorts to choose to back off.
In the middle of the night, gold and silver plummeted, but BTC rebounded from the bottom, which is a positive phenomenon. Currently, BTC is close to the previous $80,000 Second Leg, and it is very important for the market to have this kind of confidence injected.
#贵金属巨震 #币安10亿美元增持BTC计划
This indicates that Binance will be in a net buying position for the next 30 days and will not be selling off. Simply releasing this signal to the market is enough to make some aggressive shorts reconsider.
In fact, since Binance announced the news yesterday afternoon, the holdings of BTC have quickly declined from the peak. This represents a weakening of the downward momentum, and shorts are closing their positions.
The market is a dynamic game process, and shorts cannot determine whether other important players (Justin Sun, Tether) will follow Binance's actions. But the mere existence of this expectation will lead aggressive shorts to choose to back off.
In the middle of the night, gold and silver plummeted, but BTC rebounded from the bottom, which is a positive phenomenon. Currently, BTC is close to the previous $80,000 Second Leg, and it is very important for the market to have this kind of confidence injected.
#贵金属巨震 #币安10亿美元增持BTC计划
Binance's TradFi garden adds new flowers, platinum and palladium officially join, is Binance playing a bigger game?
——Witness Binance entering a new stage in its precious metals layout.
Today, Binance, the world's leading cryptocurrency exchange, has added a significant new product to its strategic layout of continued expansion in TradFi: perpetual contracts for platinum (XPTUSDT) and palladium (XPDUSDT) are officially launched for trading. With the addition of this latest category, Binance takes a big step forward on the road to integrating traditional finance with digital assets, providing users with more comprehensive exposure to precious metals and investment choices.
From gold and silver to platinum and palladium: the precious metals series continues to expand.
In early 2026, Binance was the first to launch perpetual contracts for gold (XAUUSDT) and silver (XAGUSDT) in TradFi, allowing users to trade traditional precious metals around the clock on the blockchain platform through USDT-settled perpetual contracts. This innovative product connects digital assets with real-world precious metal price trends, marking Binance's solid positioning in the traditional asset derivatives field.
Today, Binance, the world's leading cryptocurrency exchange, has added a significant new product to its strategic layout of continued expansion in TradFi: perpetual contracts for platinum (XPTUSDT) and palladium (XPDUSDT) are officially launched for trading. With the addition of this latest category, Binance takes a big step forward on the road to integrating traditional finance with digital assets, providing users with more comprehensive exposure to precious metals and investment choices.
From gold and silver to platinum and palladium: the precious metals series continues to expand.
In early 2026, Binance was the first to launch perpetual contracts for gold (XAUUSDT) and silver (XAGUSDT) in TradFi, allowing users to trade traditional precious metals around the clock on the blockchain platform through USDT-settled perpetual contracts. This innovative product connects digital assets with real-world precious metal price trends, marking Binance's solid positioning in the traditional asset derivatives field.
The Federal Reserve's first 'hold': Pause on rate cuts, outlook for future cuts
The Federal Reserve's first 'hold': Pause on rate cuts, reassessing risk appetite | In-depth analysis of the currency market
I. Core Conclusion: The interest rate meeting is as the market expected — No rate cuts for now, but the policy stance has shifted to a more neutral hawkish position.
Last night, the Federal Reserve announced the January interest rate decision, maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, marking the first pause after three consecutive rate cuts. This move is not a shift towards tightening, but rather expresses the policy logic of 'waiting for data before taking action.'
Key Signal Point:
The Federal Reserve's assessment of the current U.S. economy has been upgraded from 'moderate expansion' to robust growth.
I. Core Conclusion: The interest rate meeting is as the market expected — No rate cuts for now, but the policy stance has shifted to a more neutral hawkish position.
Last night, the Federal Reserve announced the January interest rate decision, maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, marking the first pause after three consecutive rate cuts. This move is not a shift towards tightening, but rather expresses the policy logic of 'waiting for data before taking action.'
Key Signal Point:
The Federal Reserve's assessment of the current U.S. economy has been upgraded from 'moderate expansion' to robust growth.
CME raises margins again, silver squeeze, large traders are frantically taking deliveries, where is the epic delivery peak?
Yesterday, CME announced the sixth increase in silver margin requirements. January is the 6th largest delivery month in COMEX history, and March is when the true delivery month occurs. Recently, the international silver market has entered an extremely tense and critical phase, with not only a significant price increase but also the continuous depletion of physical inventory sparking heated discussions among market participants about delivery squeezes. What exactly has happened? Below, we will analyze the potential epic delivery price peak turning point based on the latest COMEX silver inventory dynamics and core driving factors.
Additionally, the only silver LOF fund in the domestic market has closed its over-the-counter trading today, and a portion of the funds should move to Binance$XAG , with intraday trading volume continuing to expand.
Additionally, the only silver LOF fund in the domestic market has closed its over-the-counter trading today, and a portion of the funds should move to Binance$XAG , with intraday trading volume continuing to expand.
From gold and silver to Tesla, Binance is reconstructing the asset rankings in the crypto circle.
On January 28, Binance announced the launch of Tesla (TSLA) USDT perpetual contracts, which is the third traditional asset contract launched by Binance after gold and silver contracts.
From gold, silver to US stocks, Binance is quietly completing a highly symbolic asset migration. This means that precious metals and leading US stocks are now competing for funds in the same trading pool as crypto assets.
More exaggerated is the data itself. Currently, the two major on-chain gold tokens $XAU + $PAXG , the total trading volume in 24 hours has reached 1.1 billion USDT.
If ranked as an asset class, it has already surged to the 11th place in total cryptocurrency trading volume, surpassing LTC, LINK, TRON, ADA, SUI, only behind DOGE. This means the trading activity of gold tokens is already higher than most mainstream altcoins.
From gold, silver to US stocks, Binance is quietly completing a highly symbolic asset migration. This means that precious metals and leading US stocks are now competing for funds in the same trading pool as crypto assets.
More exaggerated is the data itself. Currently, the two major on-chain gold tokens $XAU + $PAXG , the total trading volume in 24 hours has reached 1.1 billion USDT.
If ranked as an asset class, it has already surged to the 11th place in total cryptocurrency trading volume, surpassing LTC, LINK, TRON, ADA, SUI, only behind DOGE. This means the trading activity of gold tokens is already higher than most mainstream altcoins.
$AUCTION Recently there may be an opportunity, currently it is a pullback after a daily line breakthrough. There are usually 1-2 major market movements each year, and in previous years, major market movements were accompanied by some positive news. This time it is the prediction market for February.
Binance's Perspective on the World Cup: Fan Token Difficulty Increases, But the Real Opportunities Are Just Beginning
As the 2026 World Cup approaches, the global sports industry, brand marketing, and the cryptocurrency sector are reshaping their strategies around the commercial opportunities behind this largest global sporting event. The World Cup is not only a carnival for fans but also a top window for brands to reach billions of users worldwide, and Binance, as one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges globally, is quietly setting its sights on this milestone.
Since the World Cup market started on December 19, it has been almost a month. Compared to previous years, a notable characteristic of this market trend is: the number of participants has significantly increased, everyone is consciously preparing in advance, liquidity is insufficient, and the difficulty of market speculation has noticeably risen.
Since the World Cup market started on December 19, it has been almost a month. Compared to previous years, a notable characteristic of this market trend is: the number of participants has significantly increased, everyone is consciously preparing in advance, liquidity is insufficient, and the difficulty of market speculation has noticeably risen.
From Bitcoin to Gold and Silver: Binance is Becoming the 'Global Asset Exchange' (Precious Metals Edition of 2026 Investment Outlook)
In the first half of this year, the traditional market thinking will revolve around gold, silver, and copper, following the trend. Bold prediction: this round of precious metal cycle will welcome a long bull market measured by quarters or even years, ultimately marked by a top Wall Street institution being burst. Before this iconic event occurs, try not to consider left-side profit-taking.
Personal expectation Silver > Copper > Gold
Central banks around the world are frantically buying gold, signaling a lack of trust in the US dollar.
Russia has already cleared all US bonds in 2018, while China and developing countries are accumulating US bonds and increasing their gold reserves. Central banks worldwide began buying more than a thousand tons of gold annually starting in 2022. Our central bank has continuously increased its reserves for 11 months, reaching 2303 tons, while US bond holdings have hit a new low since 2009. Last August, the portion of global central banks buying and rising saw the value of the gold they held exceed the scale of US bonds for the first time. The current US debt stands at 38 trillion, and Trump began to target gold, attempting to monetize debt.
Personal expectation Silver > Copper > Gold
Central banks around the world are frantically buying gold, signaling a lack of trust in the US dollar.
Russia has already cleared all US bonds in 2018, while China and developing countries are accumulating US bonds and increasing their gold reserves. Central banks worldwide began buying more than a thousand tons of gold annually starting in 2022. Our central bank has continuously increased its reserves for 11 months, reaching 2303 tons, while US bond holdings have hit a new low since 2009. Last August, the portion of global central banks buying and rising saw the value of the gold they held exceed the scale of US bonds for the first time. The current US debt stands at 38 trillion, and Trump began to target gold, attempting to monetize debt.
$PENGUIN opened the ceiling of the sol system meme, with a current market value of 120 million, and has been listed on Binance Alpha. This is the first time a sol chain target has been listed since Trump, with a current holding of 45,000 people, and a relatively large proportion of foreign holdings.
BSC, relatively speaking, lacks durability, and there are very few users in the ecosystem with the habit of diamond hands. A slight disturbance makes them run faster than anyone else. However, based on experience, a counterattack should be launched next week, continuing to layout Chinese memes? $我踏马来了
BSC, relatively speaking, lacks durability, and there are very few users in the ecosystem with the habit of diamond hands. A slight disturbance makes them run faster than anyone else. However, based on experience, a counterattack should be launched next week, continuing to layout Chinese memes? $我踏马来了
Binance Alpha is not lacking in divine coins, $RIVER in one month has increased by 30 times, summarizing two potential 💎 opportunities that I am currently paying attention to:
1. $FUN
The current market value has dropped to around 10 million, can wait for a stop loss to find right-side opportunities to enter.
Prediction market + sports event narrative, currently has been listed on Binance futures, the product has data support, and there is an expectation for spot trading.
In the last cycle on Binance, the sports event prediction related to pros, after the project party pumped and dumped, was delisted, fun can be seen as its substitute.
2. $我踏马来了
Every year during the Chinese Lunar New Year, there is a period of time for the Spring Festival red envelope market, this year should be the same, currently there is a new Spring meme theme that can be speculated, I am here.
Binance currently only has futures listed, now with a market value of 20 million, the point of meme speculation lies in narrative and dissemination, I am here with this target combined with the Year of the Horse, I believe the opportunity is very large.
1. $FUN
The current market value has dropped to around 10 million, can wait for a stop loss to find right-side opportunities to enter.
Prediction market + sports event narrative, currently has been listed on Binance futures, the product has data support, and there is an expectation for spot trading.
In the last cycle on Binance, the sports event prediction related to pros, after the project party pumped and dumped, was delisted, fun can be seen as its substitute.
2. $我踏马来了
Every year during the Chinese Lunar New Year, there is a period of time for the Spring Festival red envelope market, this year should be the same, currently there is a new Spring meme theme that can be speculated, I am here.
Binance currently only has futures listed, now with a market value of 20 million, the point of meme speculation lies in narrative and dissemination, I am here with this target combined with the Year of the Horse, I believe the opportunity is very large.
Global Asset Growth: Precious Metals Dominate, Crypto at the Bottom
If you only look at the global asset growth rankings for 2025, you will find a striking phenomenon:
The most significant gains are not in U.S. stocks or tech stocks, but in precious metals; the biggest losses, however, are in the crypto assets that were once called 'digital gold.'
In recent years, Bitcoin has been telling the story of 'digital gold': anti-inflation, decentralized, and a hedge against fiat currency risks. But the reality in 2025 is that when the market truly enters a risk-averse mode, funds choose gold, not Bitcoin.
Historically, every major market event has almost always occurred after liquidity shifts towards easing. Once the world enters a rate-cutting cycle, risk appetite may rebound, and funds are likely to seek high-elasticity assets again, providing a narrative space for the crypto market.
$CHZ 2030 will be released on February 6th, whether it can lead to a wave of fan coin enthusiasm depends on it, and there might be a big news brewing 🌶🏠🇺🇸
thankUcrypto
熬鹰资本
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I don't know which position to send content to.
Let's just send some red envelopes.
1888u, I'll send it to the square for you here.
Let's just send some red envelopes.
1888u, I'll send it to the square for you here.
The main force behind last night's market crash came from the 26% address and the multi-signature address of the project party. Currently, on-chain data shows that the 26% address still has 750,000 unmoved. The manipulation mode of the dog farm is similar to TRB. From September 16-18, 2023, TRB dropped from 48.9 to 24.56, then continued to reach new highs. #BNBChainMeme热潮
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