晓梦

Yuumi report: Netflix is down 25% this year, and people are already saying, “It’s fallen into value territory.” All I’ll say is: the falling knife is still in midair—don’t rush to catch it.

Here’s what I see: $NFLX is hovering around 70 now (69.96), down from 93.76 at the end of last year. Q3 earnings are due at 4 a.m. Beijing time on Wednesday. The market expects EPS of 0.82, revenue of $12.87 billion, and year-over-year growth of 11.8%—its slowest Q3 growth in three years. The week before earnings, the company went through a shake-up: about 1,000 people (6%) were laid off, the head of content was replaced, and the film chief also left. Options are pricing in a big move of plus or minus 7% to 9%.

My take: A forward P/E of 18.8 looks cheap, but cheap isn’t a reason to buy. The real problem is that YouTube is eating into users’ watch time. Layoffs and a leadership change can stop the bleeding, but they don’t create new growth. Going all in before earnings is like rolling the dice, so I’ll watch from the sidelines. Those of you going all in—don’t come crying in the comments later.

Invalidation conditions: If it holds above 73 (last week’s high) after earnings without falling back, I’ll admit I was wrong—that would mean investors are buying into the turnaround story. If it breaks below 69.14, don’t talk to me about a bottom.

Which side are you on: A) Get in before earnings and bet on a turnaround, or B) Wait for the numbers, then get in?

$NFLX
#美股 #NetflixEarnings

BTC has rebounded to around 82,800, but I’m still not chasing it.

What I’m seeing: China’s Q3 GDP grew 4.5% year over year, beating expectations; oil prices pulled back, risk appetite picked up, and market sentiment clearly improved.
At the same time, spot Bitcoin ETFs still saw net outflows of about $228 million last week, while Ethereum ETFs saw about $320 million.
Price moved first, but the money hasn’t followed yet. The current price is around 82,853, with a 24-hour high of 83,158 and a low of 80,622.

My take: This looks more like a sentiment rebound after being oversold, not confirmation of a trend.
Until it gets above 83,158, I won’t treat this bounce as a reversal. Above 80,000, I’ll watch and wait—don’t mistake a bounce for a reversal.

For the rebound to hold, watch whether it can stay above 82,619. If it breaks below 82,619, the narrative behind this rebound is invalidated.

Do you think this is a sign of stabilization, or a bull trap?

$BTC
#比特币 #CryptoMarket