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三月蘑菇屋
302 Posts

三月蘑菇屋

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X：@kabuda325 🍄【加密、养生两不误】副业八段锦续命（本金不崩，气血不崩）
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Frequent Trader
1.9 Years
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145 Followers
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三月蘑菇屋
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The Ministry of Finance and the Fed It’s like applying two forces to the market in different directions. Ministry of Finance: Long-term bond yields are too high, so I increase repos to improve liquidity. Fed: Inflation is still high, and I may keep raising interest rates. So this also explains why the market doesn’t, like before, just see a “60% chance of a rate hike” and immediately slam the brakes down $SOL
The Ministry of Finance and the Fed
It’s like applying two forces to the market in different directions.

Ministry of Finance: Long-term bond yields are too high, so I increase repos to improve liquidity.

Fed: Inflation is still high, and I may keep raising interest rates.

So this also explains why the market doesn’t, like before, just see a “60% chance of a rate hike” and immediately slam the brakes down
$SOL
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Verified
The sound of rate hikes is already over 50%, and I think it’s mostly fueled by three fires: First, July PCE was 3.7% year over year, and core PCE was 3.3%—both clearly above the 2% target. Second, the situation in the Middle East: oil prices and inflation have reignited. Third, Warsh’s remarks came across as hawkish. But I’m more inclined to think: keep it unchanged in September! In the July meeting minutes, there was a phenomenon: oil prices had already risen noticeably, but the compensation for inflation over the medium to long term hadn’t gotten out of control, and long-term inflation expectations remained relatively stable. This suggests the Fed may not necessarily need to slam the brakes immediately for a possibly short-term energy shock. Also, in the July meeting, the market was already pricing in the question of a rate hike in September, but the FOMC ultimately kept rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% with a vote of 9 to 3. Now, the market has pushed the odds of a rate hike too far, everyone is almost calling the September hike a done deal—I actually think it may not be. #美联储加息概率升至68% $SOL
The sound of rate hikes is already over 50%,
and I think it’s mostly fueled by three fires:

First, July PCE was 3.7% year over year, and core PCE was 3.3%—both clearly above the 2% target.

Second, the situation in the Middle East: oil prices and inflation have reignited.

Third, Warsh’s remarks came across as hawkish.

But I’m more inclined to think: keep it unchanged in September!

In the July meeting minutes, there was a phenomenon: oil prices had already risen noticeably, but the compensation for inflation over the medium to long term hadn’t gotten out of control, and long-term inflation expectations remained relatively stable.

This suggests the Fed may not necessarily need to slam the brakes immediately for a possibly short-term energy shock.

Also, in the July meeting, the market was already pricing in the question of a rate hike in September, but the FOMC ultimately kept rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% with a vote of 9 to 3.

Now, the market has pushed the odds of a rate hike too far,

everyone is almost calling the September hike a done deal—I actually think it may not be.
#美联储加息概率升至68% $SOL
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The “One Piece” magazine is sealed, rated, and tokenized. Solana will promote this release on Friday, and the first tokenized “One Piece” comic is already tradable on-chain. The protagonist’s first appearance—there are only 118 worldwide. It’s the first tokenized comic in history. Buyers hold tokens that point to a verified graded collectible, not a photo listing. These 118 copies can’t disappear instantly. $SOL
The “One Piece” magazine is sealed, rated, and tokenized. Solana will promote this release on Friday, and the first tokenized “One Piece” comic is already tradable on-chain.

The protagonist’s first appearance—there are only 118 worldwide.

It’s the first tokenized comic in history. Buyers hold tokens that point to a verified graded collectible, not a photo listing.

These 118 copies can’t disappear instantly.
$SOL
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SOL15 minutes line Why are the two exchanges so different? Does anyone know what this means? $SOL
SOL15 minutes line

Why are the two exchanges so different?
Does anyone know what this means?
$SOL
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三月蘑菇屋
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Article
I found that people who know how to trade can also become a platform entry point!Let’s talk about @Velvet_Capital’s trade management economics. If you know how to trade, can you turn it into a new source of incoming funds on Velvet? Most of the time, many traders' influence mainly stays at the content level. Share insights, Show off your returns, Keep the pace. But if trading behavior can be accumulated and solidified, things are different. How do you control position sizing? How often should it be done? How do returns and drawdowns play out? Chase the hot topics or ride the trends? Where is the risk boundary? Once these records exist for a long time, a person's trading ability begins to take on an observable shape. and Velvet has capabilities related to trading and portfolio management.

I found that people who know how to trade can also become a platform entry point!

Let’s talk about @Velvet_Capital’s trade management economics.
If you know how to trade, can you turn it into a new source of incoming funds on Velvet?
Most of the time, many traders' influence mainly stays at the content level.
Share insights,
Show off your returns,
Keep the pace.
But if trading behavior can be accumulated and solidified, things are different.
How do you control position sizing?
How often should it be done?
How do returns and drawdowns play out?
Chase the hot topics or ride the trends?
Where is the risk boundary?
Once these records exist for a long time, a person's trading ability begins to take on an observable shape.
and Velvet has capabilities related to trading and portfolio management.
VELVET+6.18%
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三月蘑菇屋
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First light the fire, then help users understand how to playLet’s talk about the Renaiss new product release In the previous post, we talked about opening jadeite packs—how’s everyone playing? @renaissxyz This time, the jadeite pack! A limited pool of 1,000 packs, $100 per pack, with a maximum draw of collectibles valued at $3,200. On the surface, this is a blind box release. But I’m more interested in the first-tier issuance logic behind it. To get the collectibles market going, the first step usually isn’t to wait for the secondary market to become lively on its own; instead, you supply new products first to align attention, purchase actions, and unboxing anticipation at the same time. The limited pool is responsible for creating a sense of scarcity. High-value prizes are responsible for manufacturing unboxing emotions.

First light the fire, then help users understand how to play

Let’s talk about the Renaiss new product release
In the previous post, we talked about opening jadeite packs—how’s everyone playing?
@renaissxyz
This time, the jadeite pack!
A limited pool of 1,000 packs, $100 per pack, with a maximum draw of collectibles valued at $3,200.
On the surface, this is a blind box release.
But I’m more interested in the first-tier issuance logic behind it.
To get the collectibles market going, the first step usually isn’t to wait for the secondary market to become lively on its own; instead, you supply new products first to align attention, purchase actions, and unboxing anticipation at the same time.
The limited pool is responsible for creating a sense of scarcity.
High-value prizes are responsible for manufacturing unboxing emotions.
1
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三月蘑菇屋
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Article
Renaiss Beginner’s GuideTo understand Renaiss the first time, you just need to follow the story of one card and trace the whole loop— the first time you come into contact with it @renaissxyz , many people’s attention will end up on the card, opening packs, and the trading pages. But for beginners, the two things that are most likely to cause confusion are actually: What exactly do you get on-chain? Where are the physical collectibles? Let’s start with a brief introduction to the background. Renaiss is a real-world asset (RWA) liquidity project built on the BNB Chain. It has graduated from the YZi Labs EASY Residency S3 and completed a $1.5 million seed round led by YZi Labs. A Pokémon card or a limited-edition collectible toy has a price because of scarcity, cultural influence, and buyer consensus.

Renaiss Beginner’s Guide

To understand Renaiss the first time, you just need to follow the story of one card and trace the whole loop—
the first time you come into contact with it
@renaissxyz
, many people’s attention will end up on the card, opening packs, and the trading pages.
But for beginners, the two things that are most likely to cause confusion are actually:
What exactly do you get on-chain?
Where are the physical collectibles?
Let’s start with a brief introduction to the background.
Renaiss is a real-world asset (RWA) liquidity project built on the BNB Chain. It has graduated from the YZi Labs EASY Residency S3 and completed a $1.5 million seed round led by YZi Labs.
A Pokémon card or a limited-edition collectible toy has a price because of scarcity, cultural influence, and buyer consensus.
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85
三月蘑菇屋
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Article
Curator’s LP: from choosing markets to choosing strategiesThey say @HertzFlow_xyz but don’t talk about leverage, and they don’t talk about opening the market either. I want to see a more downstream role: Once the capital comes in, who helps allocate it? The more open markets there are, the more complex the problems LPs face. Which market to enter, which market lacks depth, which returns look high—actually, the tail risk is very heavy. Not everyone can assess things one by one. According to disclosures from the project team, the HertzFlow architecture includes a Vault and a Curator strategy layer. I understand that Curator is more like a risk steward for the capital. Its value isn’t just helping capital find a place to go; more importantly, it changes how LPs make decisions.

Curator’s LP: from choosing markets to choosing strategies

They say @HertzFlow_xyz but don’t talk about leverage, and they don’t talk about opening the market either.
I want to see a more downstream role:
Once the capital comes in, who helps allocate it?
The more open markets there are, the more complex the problems LPs face.
Which market to enter, which market lacks depth, which returns look high—actually, the tail risk is very heavy.
Not everyone can assess things one by one.
According to disclosures from the project team, the HertzFlow architecture includes a Vault and a Curator strategy layer.
I understand that Curator is more like a risk steward for the capital.
Its value isn’t just helping capital find a place to go; more importantly, it changes how LPs make decisions.
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三月蘑菇屋
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How to turn messages into trading actions!Speaking of @Velvet_Capital 's SocialFAI, how does it turn messages into trading actions! I want to see a more trading-oriented question: How does a piece of information go from “seeing it” to “daring to trade.” We all know the chain isn’t short on messages. On X there are trade calls, screenshots in groups, KOLs have opinions, and even smart money addresses can be tracked. The problem is that when these things are presented on their own, they can easily turn into noise. When a coin suddenly gets mentioned by a lot of people, it could mean the market is starting—or it could just be sentiment brewing. If an address buys a certain asset, it could be early positioning, or it could just be a test order.

How to turn messages into trading actions!

Speaking of @Velvet_Capital 's SocialFAI, how does it turn messages into trading actions!
I want to see a more trading-oriented question:
How does a piece of information go from “seeing it” to “daring to trade.”
We all know the chain isn’t short on messages.
On X there are trade calls, screenshots in groups, KOLs have opinions, and even smart money addresses can be tracked.
The problem is that when these things are presented on their own, they can easily turn into noise.
When a coin suddenly gets mentioned by a lot of people, it could mean the market is starting—or it could just be sentiment brewing.
If an address buys a certain asset, it could be early positioning, or it could just be a test order.
VELVET+6.18%
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In the end, a collectibles project is all about who staysChit-chat @renaissxyz Ecological growth is about something else: In a network of collectibles, who comes in, who is willing to stay, and who can bring the next user. Collectors drive demand for buying, holding, and trading. Merchants bring inventory, sales, and user entry points. The vault provides a foundation for physical delivery. Event organizers create new consumption scenarios. Developers build tools, showcase pages, leaderboards, and data applications around assets and user behavior. Seen individually, each role is just a point. Put them in the same network, and the growth logic changes. Merchants need collectors to foot the bill; collectors need more supply and trading scenarios; event organizers need user entry points; developers need real assets and behavioral data; and vaults need ongoing custody demand.

In the end, a collectibles project is all about who stays

Chit-chat @renaissxyz
Ecological growth is about something else:
In a network of collectibles, who comes in, who is willing to stay, and who can bring the next user.
Collectors drive demand for buying, holding, and trading.
Merchants bring inventory, sales, and user entry points.
The vault provides a foundation for physical delivery.
Event organizers create new consumption scenarios.
Developers build tools, showcase pages, leaderboards, and data applications around assets and user behavior.
Seen individually, each role is just a point.
Put them in the same network, and the growth logic changes.
Merchants need collectors to foot the bill; collectors need more supply and trading scenarios; event organizers need user entry points; developers need real assets and behavioral data; and vaults need ongoing custody demand.
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HertzFlow for beginners: I’m not in a rush to click buttons—I’ll first figure out which side I’m standing onChit-chat @Hertzflow_xyz This time in Amplify S1, there’s a theme: Tutorial: trading, liquidity pools, and vaults. I don’t plan to write it as a set of instructions like “click here, then click there—step by step.” In DeFi, the most punishing part isn’t that you don’t press the buttons—it’s that after you press them, you realize you didn’t actually understand the risks behind that button at all. So I’d rather think of HertzFlow’s trading, Pool, and Vault as three different entry tickets. The first ticket is for trading. When you open a position or close one, and choose the direction, what you earn is the money from your judgment—and what you lose is also the money from your judgment.

HertzFlow for beginners: I’m not in a rush to click buttons—I’ll first figure out which side I’m standing on

Chit-chat @Hertzflow_xyz
This time in Amplify S1, there’s a theme:
Tutorial: trading, liquidity pools, and vaults.
I don’t plan to write it as a set of instructions like “click here, then click there—step by step.”
In DeFi, the most punishing part isn’t that you don’t press the buttons—it’s that after you press them, you realize you didn’t actually understand the risks behind that button at all.
So I’d rather think of HertzFlow’s trading, Pool, and Vault as three different entry tickets.
The first ticket is for trading.
When you open a position or close one, and choose the direction, what you earn is the money from your judgment—and what you lose is also the money from your judgment.
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Developer Ecosystem: Can transaction capabilities be handed off to others?Let’s talk about @Velvet_Capital I’d rather see whether it can turn from a single app into the transaction layer inside other people’s products. Many DeFi products have very clear boundaries: Users come to your frontend, complete a transaction, and then leave. But what the developer ecosystem looks at is whether external products can plug in your needs. Why would people be willing to use Velvet instead of building it from scratch themselves? The key here isn’t whether there’s an interface, but that integrating Velvet is more cost-effective than building it from scratch yourself. Cross-chain execution, composability and orchestration management, AI / Agent calls, on-chain transaction actions—these have high development costs, and the cost of mistakes is also high.

Developer Ecosystem: Can transaction capabilities be handed off to others?

Let’s talk about
@Velvet_Capital
I’d rather see whether it can turn from a single app into the transaction layer inside other people’s products.
Many DeFi products have very clear boundaries:
Users come to your frontend, complete a transaction, and then leave.
But what the developer ecosystem looks at is whether external products can plug in your needs.
Why would people be willing to use Velvet instead of building it from scratch themselves?
The key here isn’t whether there’s an interface, but that integrating Velvet is more cost-effective than building it from scratch yourself.
Cross-chain execution, composability and orchestration management, AI / Agent calls, on-chain transaction actions—these have high development costs, and the cost of mistakes is also high.
VELVET+6.18%
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Velvet’s other growth curve: on-chain strategiesEvery day on-chain, people share their holdings, tell narratives, and post buy/sell signals. When it’s someone else’s turn to follow, they still have to buy the coins themselves, calculate positions, and then watch when the other party rebalances. A single strategy gets manually copied by dozens of people, and in the end it often turns into dozens of versions. I retweeted @Velvet_Capital. When looking at the product documentation, I found that beyond the trading terminal, there’s another business area that’s easy to overlook: Creation and issuance of on-chain investment portfolios. After carefully reviewing the documentation, I found that users can create a personal Vault or a shared Vault on Velvet. They can set the visibility range, an allowlist for access, configurable assets, and also manage fees, performance fees, and entry/exit fees.

Velvet’s other growth curve: on-chain strategies

Every day on-chain, people share their holdings, tell narratives, and post buy/sell signals.
When it’s someone else’s turn to follow, they still have to buy the coins themselves, calculate positions, and then watch when the other party rebalances.
A single strategy gets manually copied by dozens of people, and in the end it often turns into dozens of versions.
I retweeted @Velvet_Capital.
When looking at the product documentation, I found that beyond the trading terminal, there’s another business area that’s easy to overlook:
Creation and issuance of on-chain investment portfolios.
After carefully reviewing the documentation, I found that users can create a personal Vault or a shared Vault on Velvet. They can set the visibility range, an allowlist for access, configurable assets, and also manage fees, performance fees, and entry/exit fees.
VELVET+6.18%
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Testnet → Mainnet: Early User Bonus!Let’s talk about the Amplify S1 theme updates from @Hertzflow_xyz. The one I care about most is: Isn’t it easy to think about doing tasks and chasing interactions? But the testnet is most likely to create a certain illusion: The more interaction rounds there are, the deeper the participation. The main network won’t be that considerate. If you’re wrong on the testnet, you can at most restart. If you’re wrong on the mainnet, then you’ll be putting real money on the line to teach yourself a lesson. So now when I look at HertzFlow, I’m not as concerned with how many trades or actions were made, but whether these operations can leave behind some real value in the end. For example, the most basic product familiarity. Opening/closing positions, margin changes—what risks do the funding pool and treasury correspond to separately, where does the yield come from, and when can the funds be withdrawn?

Testnet → Mainnet: Early User Bonus!

Let’s talk about the Amplify S1 theme updates from @Hertzflow_xyz. The one I care about most is:
Isn’t it easy to think about doing tasks and chasing interactions?
But the testnet is most likely to create a certain illusion:
The more interaction rounds there are, the deeper the participation.
The main network won’t be that considerate.
If you’re wrong on the testnet, you can at most restart. If you’re wrong on the mainnet, then you’ll be putting real money on the line to teach yourself a lesson.
So now when I look at HertzFlow, I’m not as concerned with how many trades or actions were made, but whether these operations can leave behind some real value in the end.
For example, the most basic product familiarity.
Opening/closing positions, margin changes—what risks do the funding pool and treasury correspond to separately, where does the yield come from, and when can the funds be withdrawn?
BNB+1.06%
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For collectibles to be liquid, first make prices comparableChat with @renaissxyz. This time, I want to look at it from a harder, more industry-specific angle: What the collectibles market lacks might not be price, but a pricing standard that can be mutually recognized. One card has one price on ALT, another on eBay, and yet another on the Renaiss Marketplace. At first glance, they’re all valuing the same card. But here’s the issue ❔: Are they actually comparing the same card? Series, number, language, edition, grading company, grading score—if any one of these doesn’t match, the price will be distorted. Collectibles are different from Treasury bills and gold.

For collectibles to be liquid, first make prices comparable

Chat with @renaissxyz.
This time, I want to look at it from a harder, more industry-specific angle:
What the collectibles market lacks might not be price, but a pricing standard that can be mutually recognized.
One card has one price on ALT, another on eBay, and yet another on the Renaiss Marketplace.
At first glance, they’re all valuing the same card.
But here’s the issue ❔:
Are they actually comparing the same card?
Series, number, language, edition, grading company, grading score—if any one of these doesn’t match, the price will be distorted.
Collectibles are different from Treasury bills and gold.
XAU-0.42%
RE+4.00%
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三月蘑菇屋
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Verifying my Binance Square account for YZi Labs Amplify via EchoHunt: EH-HF75WW
Verifying my Binance Square account for YZi Labs Amplify via EchoHunt: EH-HF75WW
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三月蘑菇屋
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Stock market bugs VS crypto bugs (Chit-chat edition) I’ll understand them as two completely different games Stock market: There’s a concept of liquidity. Even if there isn’t much trading volume today, you can still push the price up, then use that price ✖️ all the shares = its market cap. Crypto: It can pump first, then provide reasons afterward. The stock market is about finding mispricings within existing value. Crypto is about betting on consensus before future value is formed. I think there are also three more differences: 1. The stock market moves at a slower pace; crypto moves faster. 2. The stock market looks at profit; crypto looks first at liquidity and supply. 3. The stock market is better for long-term accumulation; crypto cares more about the opportunity space. My view is: the stock market is suited to doing the “right” thing for longer, while crypto is suited to keeping the “wrong” thing under control for a shorter time. #美联储料7月29日维持利率不变 $NVDAB
Stock market bugs VS crypto bugs (Chit-chat edition)

I’ll understand them as two completely different games

Stock market:
There’s a concept of liquidity. Even if there isn’t much trading volume today, you can still push the price up,

then use that price ✖️ all the shares = its market cap.

Crypto:
It can pump first, then provide reasons afterward.

The stock market is about finding mispricings within existing value.
Crypto is about betting on consensus before future value is formed.

I think there are also three more differences:

1. The stock market moves at a slower pace; crypto moves faster.

2. The stock market looks at profit; crypto looks first at liquidity and supply.

3. The stock market is better for long-term accumulation; crypto cares more about the opportunity space.

My view is: the stock market is suited to doing the “right” thing for longer,
while crypto is suited to keeping the “wrong” thing under control for a shorter time.
#美联储料7月29日维持利率不变 $NVDAB
NVDAB-2.13%
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The giant whale that slept for seven years, the first thing it does after waking up is to move BTC! Is it looking to find a new home, or is it going ashore? As of now, this BTC has only been transferred from an old wallet to a new address. $BTC
The giant whale that slept for seven years, the first thing it does after waking up is to move BTC!

Is it looking to find a new home, or is it going ashore?

As of now,
this BTC has only been transferred from an old wallet to a new address.
$BTC
BTC-0.68%
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Well, here we go again—U.S. and Iran are at it I know 26 would be tough, but I didn’t expect it to be a bunch of old geezers causing trouble $SOL $SPCXB
Well, here we go again—U.S. and Iran are at it

I know 26 would be tough,
but I didn’t expect it to be a bunch of old geezers causing trouble
$SOL $SPCXB
SOL-0.95%
SPCXB-1.72%
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