币圈十二叔

I’m watching the entry level at 0.02519 for this $PHA /USDT trade. The targets are 0.02550, 0.02650, 0.02750, and 0.02847 in order. Place the stop-loss at 0.02400, with 50x leverage.
Market moves fast—consider advancing in steps. When price reaches each target level, gradually take profits; don’t hold on too stubbornly.
My Hunt Dragon strategy is to chase short in the direction of the trend from a high point. Dragon Slaying is to harvest when things get overheated. The directional strategy is unified and driven by the scoring center. Want to see how it runs? Go to the homepage.

$BTR ’s OI has already reached $27 million, while its market cap is only $20 million. I’m waiting for a rebound to short, not chasing higher near $0.05701. The leverage carries even heavier weight than the spot. If the price fails to break through $0.0631, the longs that let go first will amplify the volatility.

The 4-hour RSI7 is already at 94.6, and the last ~3 candles’ volatility is 15.01%. It’s indeed strong in the short term, but this isn’t a comfortable place to chase. The daily EMA5 is only 0.0555, still below the EMA25 at 0.0599, which suggests the larger-scale trend repair hasn’t been completed yet. My short positions are only for this portion where price gets pressured on a rebound.

Funding rate: the past 24 hours cumulative +0.0300%. Long/short account ratio is 1.5082, and big-holder positioning ratio is 1.3859. The long bias is consistent; the crowding ratio is even more worth watching than the funding rate itself. $BTR is independently strengthening against BTC (-0.27%) and the whole market (-3.60%). A squeeze can still continue; but once the tide turns, there’s also no strong broad-market support. Since spot hasn’t listed yet, the contract market’s game is more likely to amplify volatility.

I’m only waiting for the price to rebound to around $0.0631, then enter after confirming the pressure. If it holds and breaks above here, I’ll admit I’m wrong and exit. If it moves down first, I’m looking at $0.0555, then $0.0530—don’t gamble on the top without taking the current price into account.

📊 Direction: wait for a rebound to short
💰 Entry reference: after rebounding and getting pressured around $0.0631
🛑 Stop-loss: $0.0660 — exit immediately when triggered
🎯 Take-profit 1: $0.0555 — around the daily EMA5
🎯 Take-profit 2: $0.0530 — near the 4-hour EMA25’s 0.05297

Strong trend doesn’t automatically mean chasing at the current price is worth it. If the odds aren’t good, just wait.

When you rebound and get pressured then fall back, or do you break through and continue above $0.0631? Pick one.

$BTR #技术分析 #十二叔
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I may have boarded a bit late this time, but I still caught a strong pull from $INTC / $INTW .
$INTC held the key support around $85, then after several days of rebound, I held some long positions last week.
Before breaking through the $108 resistance level, it might first pull back a bit—just to steady the pace—then keep watching.
If a black swan hits, a single strategy can get blown up instantly. I’ve set my portfolio’s total leverage to keep it within 2x of equity; I’ll Hold the core position through the cycle, and the homepage can stay synced with the live trades.

$LSK Wait for a pullback of the 4-hour EMA25 at 0.1055: I’ll go long on the retest, not chase at $0.11382. The trend is strong, but the position is too hot. The 4-hour RSI14 is already at 80.7, and the daily RSI14 is also 72.1. Chasing here doesn’t offer good odds.

The 4-hour EMA5/25/60 remains in a bullish alignment, and the daily EMA5 is above the EMA25, suggesting the trend hasn’t broken yet. Price moved from the low of the daily range at 0.07 up to the high at 0.12—up 11.5% in 24 hours, ranking 5th. Independent strength has already been noticed by the market. But since RSI is overheated and 0.12’s prior high is close, the accounts that let go early are more likely to be the ones chasing.

The sentiment is more interesting: the long/short account ratio is 2.4771, clearly leaning long. Large-holder positioning ratio is 0.9167, but slightly leaning short, showing disagreement. The 24-hour cumulative funding rate is -0.0251%—shorts are still paying. When pullbacks don’t break, there’s squeeze fuel; but once 0.1055 is lost, crowded longs will amplify the drawdown. OI is about 13% of market cap. Leverage participation isn’t extreme; the real conflict is that the position is overheated and positioning is split.

BTC is down 0.82%, the whole market is down 4.26%. $LSK is independently strong, so the squeeze could continue. But during a cooldown, there’s no broad-market support. My plan is simple: don’t chase with market orders—wait for the pullback and confirm with key moving averages. If it breaks below 0.1027 and the trend-continuation logic fails, I’ll immediately back off.

📊 Direction: wait for the dip to go long
💰 Entry reference: after a pullback, confirm at 0.1055
🛑 Stop loss: 0.1027—exit if it breaks
🎯 Take profit 1: 0.12, prior high resistance
🎯 Take profit 2: no reliable higher target yet

You can HODL the trend, but you can’t rely on faith to catch overheated levels.

When you see a pullback at 0.1055, do you step in for longs, or do you hold long and then let go first? Pick one.

$LSK #技术分析 #Uncle Shi
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I’m bullish on $STRK breaking through in the L2 scaling race.
The key is whether the Sept. 10 Ethereum Hegotá developer deadline—upgrades like EIP-8141’s Frame Transactions—are laying the groundwork for hyperscale scaling and native gas.
The quantitative answer is simple: disciplined execution + backtest validation + risk that’s controllable. I don’t rely on luck; the system checks things for me. Visit my profile and tap in for the live trading demo.

4-hour EMA5 at $0.003099, with $XVG not far off, yet the daily chart is already up 45.94%. I’ll wait for a pullback to go long, and I won’t chase above $0.003261.

In the last 3 four-hour candles, volatility is 8.58%; trading amount per candle is about $1.25 million. This only shows that trading is active—it can’t directly serve as proof of a real breakout. Once the pullback holds above EMA5, the trend still has follow-through. If price falls back below EMA25, then you have to admit defeat.

The most conflicting part of this move is: $XVG 2 is up 12.02% on the four-hour chart, while BTC is down 0.70% and the whole market is down 3.94%. Independent strength does exist. But funding rates are already +0.0300%, and the long/short ratio is 1.5304—longs are not exactly relaxed. If price keeps pushing higher, it will force shorts to cover. But if the pullback fails and support breaks, the paying longs will let go first.

The 4-hour EMA5, EMA25, and EMA60 are still in a bullish alignment. RSI is only around 58, so the short-term isn’t as extreme as the daily RSI 73–78 range. That’s why I do a pullback entry, not emotional chasing.

📊 Direction: wait for a pullback to go long
💰 Entry reference: pull back near $0.003099 and participate after confirming hold/support
🛑 Stop loss: $0.002900 — exit if it breaks; don’t stubbornly hold
🎯 Take profit 1: $0.003261 — first look for a return to the current price and confirm the rebound
🎯 Take profit 2: no reliable higher target yet

You can hold the trend, but don’t chase when it’s crowded.

Will you stand at $0.003099 and catch the pullback/support, or will you go long after $0.002933 breaks and the longs let go? Choose one.

$XVG #技术分析 #十二叔
For XVG, I’ll keep watching this move. If you want to be worry-free and follow the rhythm, you can check out my Binance homepage.
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Prices are still strong, but the position isn’t light: $COTI 24 hours up 21.65%. Both long/short accounts and whales are leaning bullish. I won’t chase the current price—I’ll wait for a pullback to $0.02, confirm, and then go long.

4-hour EMA5, 25, and 60 are all diverging upward. $0.01935 is the level short-term longs should defend. The daily RSI has already reached 91.5, so the trend can be held, but the sentiment K isn’t worth hard-pushing at market price.

More importantly, the 24-hour funding rate is -0.1479%. Shorts are still paying protection fees. Once price moves back above $0.021116, covering will continue to fuel volatility. OI is $35 million—against a $62 million market cap, that’s not small either. If it goes the other way, a sharp reversal can happen quickly too.

$COTI is rising while BTC is down 0.39% and the broader market is down 2.27%, showing independent strength. But the broader market isn’t providing support. If it breaks below $0.01935, I’ll immediately back off. I won’t use “faith” to hold and buy against risk for a stop-loss.

📊 Direction: Long
💰 Entry reference: Participate after a pullback to $0.020000 and confirmation
🛑 Stop loss: Exit after $0.019350 is lost
🎯 Take profit 1: $0.021116—reclaim the exact current price level and confirm strength
🎯 Take profit 2: No reliable higher target yet

If you can hold the trend, just wait for the right spot when sentiment gets overheated.

You’re paying negative funding and letting shorts keep covering, or you’re letting longs go after $0.019350 is broken? Choose one.

$COTI #技术分析 #十二叔
I’ll keep watching this move in COTI. Brothers who recognize the rhythm come to Binance—go to the homepage and follow my trades.
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Yesterday I originally thought this was a momentum continuation, but the market looks more complex than I imagined: a breakout did occur, but before the close, sell pressure wiped out all upside potential.
Once again, this shows that a breakout K-line by itself doesn’t equal confirmation—the next step still depends on whether the price can truly hold above the resistance level.
$STRK , $ZRO , and several altcoins like $CVX all need confirmation.
Going all-in on one direction is too dependent on luck. My U.S. stock strategy uses tools like SQQQ with a low position size to absorb volatility—if it should be short, then short; it doesn’t interfere with my crypto strategy. There’s a live trading entry point on my profile.

$BR is surging to the 4th spot on the gainers list, up 18.33% over the past 24 hours; yet the long/short ratio in the account is only 0.8015, and the large-holder positioning ratio has reached 1.9719. I’m waiting for a pullback to go long—won’t chase near 0.318.

A divergence in positioning suggests the shorts haven’t fully surrendered. If the price retraces and finds support, short covering could actually push the market again toward the previous high.

The technical structure is still on the long side. In the 4-hour chart, EMA5 is 0.3126, sitting above EMA25 at 0.2818 and EMA60 at 0.2618; on the daily chart, EMA5 is also 0.2870, above EMA25 at 0.2467. The trend hasn’t broken, but the 4-hour RSI7 is already 80.3, RSI14 is 69.1, and the daily RSI is also at 63.6—chasing at current price doesn’t offer a good payoff.

Sentiment is even more worth watching. The accumulated 24-hour funding rate is +0.1575%. Longs are continuously paying; OI is about $31 million, roughly over 30% of a $96 million market cap—leverage participation isn’t light. When price stalls below the 0.35 prior high, high-cost longs may let go first. If price returns to 0.3126 and I can still hold it, that’s when I’ll re-enter on the pullback. If it breaks below 0.2817, the long thesis fails—I’ll immediately bow out.

$BR is clearly stronger than BTC and the whole market—this is independent strength, and a short squeeze can continue. But during a sell-off, without the broader market propping it up, pullbacks can be more direct. The contract has been listed for 536 days—not the early liquidity stage of a new coin—but it’s a single contract, so positioning still needs to be more controlled.

📊 Direction: wait for a pullback to go long
💰 Entry reference: participate after confirming a pullback near 0.3126
🛑 Stop loss: below 0.2817; exit the long immediately on trigger
🎯 Take profit 1: 0.3500, previous high resistance
🎯 Take profit 2: no reliable higher target yet

The trend can be held—just don’t hard-connect with the crowded price.

You either hold near 0.3126 and see pullback support, or longs loosen first and it breaks below 0.2817—choose one.

$BR #技术分析 #十二叔
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I’ve always felt that when it comes to privacy, most people in the market still haven’t woken up.
With everything transparent on-chain, it’s hard for institutional money to enter at scale. Billions in funds are still waiting on the sidelines, and the root of it is right there.
$COTI has already built Privacy-on-Demand and continues to expand it.
While the market is still debating the privacy narrative, I’d rather view it as privacy infrastructure.
The real era of privacy may have only just started.
The “leader strategy” is this: upside potential > 5 before it’s time to initiate a long. “Slaying the dragon” is just getting worn out by the hype—so you short instead. A clear set of rules, no guesswork. If you want to follow, go to my profile page.

$KAT Daily RSI7 is already at 87.3. I’m going short from the sidelines—I won’t chase this emotional candlestick. Current price is $0.005749. If it falls back below the 4H EMA5 at $0.005682, the stop-loss for the long side at higher prices may loosen first.

In the past 24 hours, it’s up 20.17%. And it’s going stronger against both BTC and the broader market, which suggests it has an independent move. But on the daily chart, RSI14 is also at 77.4—odds for continuing to chase longs are already poor.

More tangled: the 24-hour cumulative funding rate is -0.9867%. Shorts are continuously paying protection fees, so in theory there’s still squeeze fuel. However, the long-to-short ratio in the account is 2.6153, and the large-holder positioning ratio is 2.7062—both are skewed long, with positions already crowded to the same side. OI (13M) relative to market cap (20M) isn’t low. Once price weakens, the counter-move could happen quickly.

I won’t guess the top. I’ll wait for $0.005682 to be effectively broken before following. If this short-term moving average line can’t be held, the high-cost long positions will start admitting defeat. And if it reclaims $0.005749, that will mean the shorts’ paid fees weren’t wasted—I’ll immediately stop-loss.

📊 Direction: Short
💰 Entry reference: Participate after it breaks below $0.005682 and confirms
🛑 Stop-loss: $0.005749—if it reclaims that level, I immediately concede
🎯 Take-profit 1: $0.005050, 4H EMA25
🎯 Take-profit 2: $0.004714, 4H EMA60

Overbought isn’t the top. Only a breakdown of key levels is the trading signal.

Are you going to keep paying for the squeeze from the short side, or choose the one where after $0.005682 breaks down, longs loosen first? Pick one.

$KAT #技术分析 #十二叔
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The long and short positions are close to a 50/50 split; however, the big holders are偏多 instead. <a>$RAYSOL 24 hours</a> is up 22.52% to hit #2 on the gainers list. I’m going long, but I only re-enter on pullbacks—not emotionally chasing the price at $1.3781.

This move wasn’t lifted by the broader market. BTC is basically sideways, while the whole market is still down 1.96%, yet $RAYSOL shows independent strength. The most recent daily candle’s contract trading volume was $185 million, and paired with the last three waves’ 18.43% volatility, the funds are truly fighting it out—not just a fake pump that quickly fades.

More importantly, the 24-hour cumulative funding rate is -0.4253%. The shorts have been paying protection fees. As long as price holds around the 4-hour EMA5 near $1.31, shorts covering will likely push the market higher. The big holders’ position ratio at 1.3244 also suggests that high-position accounts haven’t really shifted to the short side.

The daily RSI is already above 80. Strong trend doesn’t necessarily mean the current price has favorable odds. The 4-hour EMA5, 25, and 60 are still in a bullish alignment. If there’s a pullback to $1.31 and it confirms the bounce/acceptance, I’m willing to hold. If it breaks below the EMA25 area near $1.16, it means the squeeze logic has failed—I’ll immediately admit defeat.

📊 Direction: Long
💰 Entry reference: Participate after a pullback confirmation at $1.31
🛑 Stop loss: $1.16; if it breaks, exit
🎯 Take profit 1: $1.47; the 4-hour and daily intervals’ top already provided
🎯 Take profit 2: $1.47; no reliable higher target yet—handle the remaining position based on the breakout situation

You can hold the trend, but don’t hard-chase at an overbought spot.
Are you standing with the shorts and continue covering, or are you holding and taking pressure/rejection at $1.47? Pick one.

$RAYSOL #技术分析 #Uncle Twelve
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I watched $MSTR this $33 million deal: the whale sold 18,400 shares of the Nov 135C, while also setting up a synthetic position at 100C.
Don’t force yourself to “learn like the whales” with small capital; the key is to focus on its cost and the overhead pressure at the 135 strike—make your judgment by following the whale’s positioning.
No single strategy can dominate every kind of market—that’s the nature of the market. My multi-strategy matrix helps the right people win the right battles; having both offense and defense is more comfortable than going all-in. There’s an entry point on the homepage.

It’s been pumping this hard—why wouldn’t I chase? $IOST 4 hours up 84.4%, topping the chart. I’m still long, but I’ll only wait for a pullback to $0.001465. I won’t hype it up just to follow emotions.

The 4-hour and daily EMA5 are both pushing upward with EMA25 underneath—so the trend hasn’t broken. But the RSI is already near 90. The last 3 four-hour candles have a volatility of 22.29%. If you chase at the current price, the stop-loss room and risk/reward ratio just aren’t worth it.

The counterintuitive part: the 24-hour cumulative funding rate is -1.0722%, and the shorts are still paying the protection fee. The long/short ratio is 0.763, and the large holders’ positioning ratio is 0.921—both are skewed bearish. The OI is right around $66 million in notional value, meaning the leverage is heavy. If $0.001465 pullback support holds, shorts may still keep getting squeezed to add fuel; but if it breaks and drops below the EMA25 at $0.001008, it means this trend trade should admit defeat.

$IOST is stronger than BTC and the broader market, showing independent strength. If BTC isn’t propping things up, when the pullback fails and support breaks, the downside can come even more directly. Don’t be afraid—just do it. But only enter on pullback confirmation; don’t chase at the top.

📊 Direction: Long
💰 Entry reference: $0.001465 pullback confirmation
🛑 Stop loss: Exit if it breaks below $0.001008
🎯 Take profit 1: $0.0016806 (reclaim at current highs, confirmed)
🎯 Take profit 2: $0.002055 (derived from the 4-hour 22.29% volatility)

You can hold the trend, but when sentiment is overheated you must wait for the odds.

Are you standing by at the $0.001465 pullback and bounce support—or standing by after it breaks $0.001008 and accelerates? Pick one.

$IOST #技术分析 #Uncle Shi’er
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I saw that $1.30 million went into $INTC call options;
$INTW , my judgment is a strong buy.
The quantitative answer is simple: disciplined execution + backtesting validation + controllable risk. I don’t rely on luck—my system takes care of the due diligence. Go to my homepage and tap in to follow the live trades.

The top of the gainers list doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a good buy point. What the most experienced traders fear most is emotion pushing the price up too fast. In the past 4 hours, $IOST 24 saw a surge of 84.40%; in the 4-hour range, it has already climbed 226.68%. I’m moderately bullish, but I’ll only wait for a pullback—I won’t chase at the current price.

What’s most interesting this round isn’t just the percentage gain, but the positioning that’s going against the crowd: the 24-hour cumulative funding rate is -1.0722%, meaning shorts have been consistently paying; the long/short ratio for accounts is 0.763, and the big-holder positioning ratio is 0.921—overall skewed bearish. OI is roughly equal to market cap, at about $66 million, so leverage participation isn’t light. As long as the price keeps climbing, short covering could amplify the upward push; but if a pullback fails to find support, those highly leveraged positions may unwind first.

Technically, the structure is still relatively strong. The 4-hour EMA 5/25/60 are 0.001465, 0.001008, and 0.00074; the daily EMA5 is 0.001145. The upward ordering hasn’t been broken. However, the 4-hour RSI14 is 86.9, and the daily RSI14 has reached 90.7. Over the past three 4-hour candles, volatility is 22.29%. Buying now means you’re taking risk on high-end sentiment.

My plan is clear: I’ll go long only after a retracement around 0.001008 stabilizes. For the rebound, first watch 0.001145, then 0.001465. If it breaks below 0.00074, I’ll admit the mistake and exit.

$IOST is clearly stronger than BTC’s +0.15% and the whole market’s -2.18%. It’s independent strength, but the broader market isn’t providing a floor, so any pullbacks won’t be gentle.

📊 Direction: Long
💰 Entry reference: After a pullback and stabilization near 0.001008
🛑 Stop loss: 0.00074; if it breaks, stop out and exit
🎯 Take profit 1: 0.001145 (reference daily EMA5)
🎯 Take profit 2: 0.001465 (reference 4-hour EMA5)

A fast rise doesn’t mean it’s the right buy. Wait until the odds appear before acting.

Are you going to keep standing with the shorts while they continue covering, or will the high-position longs let go first? It’s one of the two.

$IOST #技术分析 #十二叔
For this wave with IOST, I’ll keep watching. If you’re the kind of brother who agrees with the timing, come to Binance’s public arena and do it with me.
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I look at $BTC on this side—$MSTR doesn’t really have a sustained buy-side flow yet.
To buy 4,603 $BTC , Strategy sold 4.53 million shares of $MSTR ;
As a result, the $BTC in the treasury is 2,313 fewer than in June, and after dilution the per-share Bitcoin holdings also fell by 0.46%.
More importantly, after a week passed without adding to $BTC , it instead spent $176.3 million to repurchase $STRC .
Manually trading this kind of market is the easiest way to get slapped on both sides. In my quant matrix, shorting indices is already the standard move—if triggered, it executes; if wrong, it stops out. You can view the live trades on the homepage to see how it runs.

The 4-hour RSI7 for $BR has already surged to 79. I’m bullish, but I won’t chase at the current price of $0.321. The trend is still up, but sentiment is already maxed out—wait for a pullback; that’s where the trade is. Don’t use faith as a stop-loss and buy.

The 4-hour EMA5, 25, and 60 are in a bullish alignment, and the daily EMA5 is also pressing above EMA25 and rising. As long as the prior high at $0.35 hasn’t been reclaimed, the spike higher looks more like a battle over positions—not a casual long entry. The last 3 candlesticks have pulled back by 0.93%, suggesting that people at the high are starting to let go.

The bullish side paid a 0.166% protection fee over the past 24 hours; the costs aren’t low. The long/short ratio on the account is 0.80, leaning bearish, while whales’ positioning is close to 1.97, leaning bullish. Retail is bearish and whales are bullish. Once $0.35 holds, short covering may continue to push higher; however, with OI at $31 million against a market cap of $95 million, the downside still isn’t light. If it falls back below the moving averages, longs may also get cold feet together.

$BR is strengthening while ALL is down 2.4%, indicating an independent move. BTC not dropping doesn’t mean the broader market will prop it up—when the tide turns, the retracement can be direct. The futures have been listed for 536 days. Don’t use “needing new-coin liquidity” as an excuse; the key is whether $0.308 can be held.

📊 Direction: Long
💰 Entry reference: Around $0.308. Participate after a pullback and 4-hour EMA5 confirms order-book support.
🛑 Stop loss: $0.278. If it breaks below the 4-hour EMA25, exit immediately.
🎯 Take profit 1: $0.321. When it returns to the current price range, take partial profits first.
🎯 Take profit 2: $0.35. The prior high of both the 4-hour and daily charts.

You can hold the trend, but sentiment K must wait for the right location.

After $0.35 breaks, will the shorts cover and push, or will the high funding rate make the longs loosen their grip first? Pick one.

$BR #技术分析 #Twelve Uncle
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Old traders hate this kind of candlestick: the faster it rises, the more people treat stop-losses like decorations. 36.05% in $IOST 24 hours takes the top spot on the gainers list. I won’t chase this emotional candlestick—I’ll only wait for a pullback to go long.

The 4-hour moving averages are still bullish. EMA25 is at 0.000933, EMA60 at 0.000718, and the daily EMA5 has also climbed to 0.001066—the trend hasn’t broken. But the current price, 0.0012239, is already pressing just below the 4-hour EMA5 at 0.00125. RSI on both cycles is above 84. Chasing in here would mean taking risk for the sake of emotion.

What’s even more intense is that OI is already $43M, almost right up against the $50M market cap ceiling. With leverage positioned this heavily, if price pauses even briefly, anyone who lets go will amplify the volatility. The +0.03% funding rate suggests longs are also paying protection fees. Yet the long/short ratio is 0.763 and the large-holder positioning ratio is 0.921—leaning bearish. The squeeze fuel hasn’t burned out, but positions are already starting to clash.

$IOST is strengthening against $BTC and the whole market—an independent move. Without the broader market propping it up, the pullback will be more direct than you’d expect. I only participate after it returns to the daily EMA5 and shows acceptance/consolidation there—I won’t babysit high-level maxed-out positions.

📊 Direction: wait for a pullback to go long
💰 Entry reference: after the 0.001066 pullback confirms, then enter
🛑 Stop loss: 0.000933; exit if it breaks
🎯 Take profit 1: 0.0012239, back into the current strong zone
🎯 Take profit 2: 0.00125, the 4-hour EMA5 resistance level

If the trend can hold, then when leverage is too heavy, we only hold the pullback.
Are you going to stand as the bear and keep covering shorts, or are you going to stand in the high-leverage position and let go first? Pick one.

$IOST #技术分析 #十二叔
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I saw $ZEC has already started to rise, $ZEN followed, and multiple smaller altcoins are rising in sync—only $DUSK hasn’t moved much yet.
The capital rotation in the privacy sector is already very obvious. $DUSK is still the last laggard; its phase is the same as the ones earlier that were before they started.
Usually, the later something starts, the bigger the catch-up space. I will focus on watching this one closely.
Doing this kind of market manually is the easiest way to get slapped on both sides. In my quantitative matrix, running index shorts is the standard play: when it triggers, execute; if it’s wrong, cut losses. You can see how it runs in real time on the homepage.