景桢
163 Posts
景桢
价值投资者。早八战法创始人 只做确定性的行情
High-Frequency Trader
1.5 Years
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#circle $CRCL But if you’ve looked at on-chain data these last few days, you’ll know that USDC’s issuance is back up—the sign that institutions are entering the market.
Retail traders are still shorting, while institutions are still accumulating.
Since you don’t dare to buy more Bitcoin, then you can fully go long on Circle.
The bottom on this daily chart is already in place. Yesterday it closed with a bullish candle; in the past, they’ve always just been wick-spikes.
As for all that talk about “USDC stablecoin causing a shock” and whatnot—it’s all bullshit smoke and mirrors. Big whales and institutions still have to behave and buy USDC.
But honestly, if Circle wants to keep putting up a pretty set of numbers on the books, the current interest model alone isn’t enough—slowly expand the business. Either way, I believe the bull market can still return to ATH and even push higher.
Retail traders are still shorting, while institutions are still accumulating.
Since you don’t dare to buy more Bitcoin, then you can fully go long on Circle.
The bottom on this daily chart is already in place. Yesterday it closed with a bullish candle; in the past, they’ve always just been wick-spikes.
As for all that talk about “USDC stablecoin causing a shock” and whatnot—it’s all bullshit smoke and mirrors. Big whales and institutions still have to behave and buy USDC.
But honestly, if Circle wants to keep putting up a pretty set of numbers on the books, the current interest model alone isn’t enough—slowly expand the business. Either way, I believe the bull market can still return to ATH and even push higher.
$ROBO a few days ago, the robo contract order I called at 0.012 got sold off. After selling it off, I bought more than 10,000 robos and put them into a financial management product—this is the lottery project.
Back in February this year, during a livestream, they called for spot trading of RAVE. Unfortunately, I didn’t hold on to it. For the robo coin, if you hold it for one and a half to two years, there will be some surprises.
Back in February this year, during a livestream, they called for spot trading of RAVE. Unfortunately, I didn’t hold on to it. For the robo coin, if you hold it for one and a half to two years, there will be some surprises.
The way we went here isn’t good. Focus on today’s BTC at 64,000 and ETH at 1,880—whether they can hold. If they can’t hold, then we need to reposition and refill the positions again. For Bitcoin around 63, you can add a bit more; if there are shorts at 65, you can reduce the shorts at 64. Continue holding with break-even protection.
This morning at 8:00, $BTC closed at 646, with a slight suppression. Today is likely to move back into a pullback with a choppy upward trend.
For the big coin, a pullback to the key level at 64100.
Ethereum at 1880.
You can go long.
As long as these two levels don’t break down, the inflow from the north can continue.
For the big coin, a pullback to the key level at 64100.
Ethereum at 1880.
You can go long.
As long as these two levels don’t break down, the inflow from the north can continue.
$BTC Here is quite forceful, and the 4H volume has also arrived. Right now, a slight pullback in the US stock market is suppressing crypto. The best script is to move sideways until the close; in the morning, if it breaks out on volume toward 65 to “stab” down and then comes back, and if the 4H RSI also reaches overbought at the same time, then a short is possible—but ideally the short entry should still be around 68.
sol抓紧低吸，过几天可能就没机会了。
Also, on Friday, keep a small position or stay in cash if the clarified bill’s near-volume stays low; if there’s an opportunity to wash lower, then continue getting long and ride it up.
sol抓紧低吸，过几天可能就没机会了。
Also, on Friday, keep a small position or stay in cash if the clarified bill’s near-volume stays low; if there’s an opportunity to wash lower, then continue getting long and ride it up.
$BTC Continue with the 8am early-session strategy. This morning at eight o'clock, the price rose to 64,000. Last night it kept ranging and moving upward, so it makes sense not to allow a pullback. Today, focus mainly on how the price behaves around 65. By tomorrow morning at eight o'clock, it's reasonable for it to close within 64–65. It must not fall below 64.
As I said, since this morning at 8 o'clock $BTC entered 63200, we can enter from the left side. By tomorrow morning at 8 o'clock we must reach 64000, otherwise I will conservatively cut back and wait for a clearer signal.
Summarize $BTC
Resistance $63,886 / $64,000 Bounce confirmation level
Resistance $65,239–$65,661 Short invalidation zone (if broken through, the bearish thesis is disproven)
Resistance $69,000 STH cost line; holding above it = seasonal pattern is broken
Support $63,268 78.6% retracement level; daily close back below = confirms weakness
Support $62,000 Large-scale liquidation cluster
Support $60,000–$61,000 Psychological level + key long-cycle zone
Support $58,000–$60,000 Strongest support band (defended multiple times)
Extreme $57,884 June low; final reference for bears
After the close on next Monday—i.e., on Tuesday—Bitcoin’s daily chart must move back above 63,200 to open room for an upward move; for Ethereum this corresponds to above 1,850.
If the daily chart breaks on Tuesday morning, the subsequent path is likely to repeatedly test 58–62 while grinding out a base.
August event calendar
Early August: July non-farm data → affects rate-hike expectations
August 8: Related to a clear/transparent bill; Congress recess → formal confirmation of a legislative vacuum (possible small “sell the news” / upside)
Mid-August: July CPI → the most important data point of the whole month, directly impacting the September FOMC (current 82% probability of a rate hike; and the July meeting had a rare 9:3 split, indicating major internal disagreement)
Late August: Jackson Hole conference (Powell speech/remarks) → the biggest turning-point window of the month
Throughout the month: ETF fund flows (in July, still net positive +$172M; but on 7/31 there was a daily outflow of $265M—institutions are adjusting rather than exiting)
Resistance $63,886 / $64,000 Bounce confirmation level
Resistance $65,239–$65,661 Short invalidation zone (if broken through, the bearish thesis is disproven)
Resistance $69,000 STH cost line; holding above it = seasonal pattern is broken
Support $63,268 78.6% retracement level; daily close back below = confirms weakness
Support $62,000 Large-scale liquidation cluster
Support $60,000–$61,000 Psychological level + key long-cycle zone
Support $58,000–$60,000 Strongest support band (defended multiple times)
Extreme $57,884 June low; final reference for bears
After the close on next Monday—i.e., on Tuesday—Bitcoin’s daily chart must move back above 63,200 to open room for an upward move; for Ethereum this corresponds to above 1,850.
If the daily chart breaks on Tuesday morning, the subsequent path is likely to repeatedly test 58–62 while grinding out a base.
August event calendar
Early August: July non-farm data → affects rate-hike expectations
August 8: Related to a clear/transparent bill; Congress recess → formal confirmation of a legislative vacuum (possible small “sell the news” / upside)
Mid-August: July CPI → the most important data point of the whole month, directly impacting the September FOMC (current 82% probability of a rate hike; and the July meeting had a rare 9:3 split, indicating major internal disagreement)
Late August: Jackson Hole conference (Powell speech/remarks) → the biggest turning-point window of the month
Throughout the month: ETF fund flows (in July, still net positive +$172M; but on 7/31 there was a daily outflow of $265M—institutions are adjusting rather than exiting)
$SNDK
1. Has the storage sector's market行情 finished? What assets should we allocate next?
2. Apple $AAPL is down so much 📉—can we buy the dip?
I see two opportunities here.
Let’s take a look together.
First, understand this: the tech rally transmission chain is GPU chips → optical modules → advanced packaging → HBM memory storage → downstream large-model applications. If the storage sector’s heat has played out, then you should move quickly to position yourself in the downstream sector.
So what are the downstream sectors?
Answer: large-model companies, and Apple.
1. Storage sector: upstream cyclical performance assets (the main line in this current phase). Its profit logic is inventory revaluation driven by chip price increases. It has the strongest burst potential, and it is also the core reason why market capital is currently concentrated and pushing up.
2. Second phase: storage is stagnant at high levels, and funds switch to downstream large-model stocks
As the chip price rise cycle for storage reaches the middle stage, profit-taking funds sell in batches and flow into valuation-low large-model concept stocks that are waiting for catalysts.
🛎️Key point comes
First opportunity
Large-model enthusiasm is reigniting.
Especially major news such as OpenAI officially announcing a stock offering and IPO completion will directly ignite the midstream large-model sector rally—this is also your core window to accumulate on dips and take profit on favorable news. So in August and September, you can consider buying low and positioning in large-model stocks like OpenAI and companies such as “Humanity/Anthropic,” to trade a rotation expectation.
🤫Second opportunity
Large-model enthusiasm spreads, and the final rotation pushes up Apple.
Apple is pure downstream application hardware.
When the market fully prices in expectations for AI compute power and models, capital will look for real-entity earnings from AI commercialization. Apple relies on billions of hardware users worldwide and rolls out on-device AI capabilities through the Apple Intelligence side. With catalysts from the autumn product launch event, it will see a catch-up rally, completing the full rotation loop across the entire AI industry chain.
Apple has been falling a lot today—this is exactly your chance to get in.
My plan is to do batch DCA from around 300 down to 260.
1. Hold at least until the September press conference to realize the AI new-phone rally;
2. Hold long-term for more than 3 years, and capture the growth dividend from AI terminal ecosystem.
Unless there is an effective breakdown below the 240 USD long-term moving average (a structural deterioration in fundamentals), otherwise hold steady.
1. Has the storage sector's market行情 finished? What assets should we allocate next?
2. Apple $AAPL is down so much 📉—can we buy the dip?
I see two opportunities here.
Let’s take a look together.
First, understand this: the tech rally transmission chain is GPU chips → optical modules → advanced packaging → HBM memory storage → downstream large-model applications. If the storage sector’s heat has played out, then you should move quickly to position yourself in the downstream sector.
So what are the downstream sectors?
Answer: large-model companies, and Apple.
1. Storage sector: upstream cyclical performance assets (the main line in this current phase). Its profit logic is inventory revaluation driven by chip price increases. It has the strongest burst potential, and it is also the core reason why market capital is currently concentrated and pushing up.
2. Second phase: storage is stagnant at high levels, and funds switch to downstream large-model stocks
As the chip price rise cycle for storage reaches the middle stage, profit-taking funds sell in batches and flow into valuation-low large-model concept stocks that are waiting for catalysts.
🛎️Key point comes
First opportunity
Large-model enthusiasm is reigniting.
Especially major news such as OpenAI officially announcing a stock offering and IPO completion will directly ignite the midstream large-model sector rally—this is also your core window to accumulate on dips and take profit on favorable news. So in August and September, you can consider buying low and positioning in large-model stocks like OpenAI and companies such as “Humanity/Anthropic,” to trade a rotation expectation.
🤫Second opportunity
Large-model enthusiasm spreads, and the final rotation pushes up Apple.
Apple is pure downstream application hardware.
When the market fully prices in expectations for AI compute power and models, capital will look for real-entity earnings from AI commercialization. Apple relies on billions of hardware users worldwide and rolls out on-device AI capabilities through the Apple Intelligence side. With catalysts from the autumn product launch event, it will see a catch-up rally, completing the full rotation loop across the entire AI industry chain.
Apple has been falling a lot today—this is exactly your chance to get in.
My plan is to do batch DCA from around 300 down to 260.
1. Hold at least until the September press conference to realize the AI new-phone rally;
2. Hold long-term for more than 3 years, and capture the growth dividend from AI terminal ecosystem.
Unless there is an effective breakdown below the 240 USD long-term moving average (a structural deterioration in fundamentals), otherwise hold steady.
$BNB pay close attention to bnb. The weekly divergence has never really pushed higher.
If the rebound continues, bnb has a chance to catch up to around 800.
If the rebound continues, bnb has a chance to catch up to around 800.
🚨 BTC holds the line at 63,000! After the Fed’s hawkish pause, tonight brings another test: $BTC
Just past the last 24 hours
First, look at the data:
📉 The entire market liquidated $276 million, and 88,000 people were wiped out
🐳 Long positions on BTC liquidated $27.78 million, while ETH longs liquidated $33.77 million
💸 On Binance futures, the “smart money” account ESP bull incurred losses of over $2.4 million
What happened?
👀 The Fed yesterday kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%—no change for the fifth consecutive time. But the key point is this: out of 12 FOMC members, 3 voted for a rate hike.
Three votes against—that’s a signal. The market was expecting a dovish outcome, but instead got a hawkish pause. BTC dropped straight from around 64,500 to 63,200. Even though it has since bounced back to around 64,000, the bulls clearly lack confidence.
Another risk: Iran.
The U.S. has again taken action against Iran. Oil prices rise → inflation expectations rise → rate cuts are far off → pressure builds on risk assets. This logic chain is very unfriendly to BTC.
Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for 4 straight days, totaling $526 million. Smart money is withdrawing.
What to watch tonight?
MicroStrategy (now “Strategy”) will release its Q2 earnings after the close. They hold 840,000 BTC with an average cost of $75,400—more than $11,000 above the current price. Last time, they were forced to sell some BTC. This time, will they sell again? If the earnings report shows BTC selling/reductions, it would be another emotional blow.
My take:
63,000 is the bulls’ last pair of pants. If this level holds, then in the short term expect consolidation between 64,500 and 65,100. If it doesn’t hold, then 62,000—and even the 60,000 level—will be tested again.
Not optimistic in the short term, but not enough to panic. The real big move may come on September 16, the next FOMC—then they’ll release a fresh dot plot, and the direction will become clear.
Just past the last 24 hours
First, look at the data:
📉 The entire market liquidated $276 million, and 88,000 people were wiped out
🐳 Long positions on BTC liquidated $27.78 million, while ETH longs liquidated $33.77 million
💸 On Binance futures, the “smart money” account ESP bull incurred losses of over $2.4 million
What happened?
👀 The Fed yesterday kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%—no change for the fifth consecutive time. But the key point is this: out of 12 FOMC members, 3 voted for a rate hike.
Three votes against—that’s a signal. The market was expecting a dovish outcome, but instead got a hawkish pause. BTC dropped straight from around 64,500 to 63,200. Even though it has since bounced back to around 64,000, the bulls clearly lack confidence.
Another risk: Iran.
The U.S. has again taken action against Iran. Oil prices rise → inflation expectations rise → rate cuts are far off → pressure builds on risk assets. This logic chain is very unfriendly to BTC.
Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for 4 straight days, totaling $526 million. Smart money is withdrawing.
What to watch tonight?
MicroStrategy (now “Strategy”) will release its Q2 earnings after the close. They hold 840,000 BTC with an average cost of $75,400—more than $11,000 above the current price. Last time, they were forced to sell some BTC. This time, will they sell again? If the earnings report shows BTC selling/reductions, it would be another emotional blow.
My take:
63,000 is the bulls’ last pair of pants. If this level holds, then in the short term expect consolidation between 64,500 and 65,100. If it doesn’t hold, then 62,000—and even the 60,000 level—will be tested again.
Not optimistic in the short term, but not enough to panic. The real big move may come on September 16, the next FOMC—then they’ll release a fresh dot plot, and the direction will become clear.
$BTC Now at this time, the teachers who teach you to trade contracts are either stupid or bad! In the late stage of a bear market, the market’s liquidity is extremely thin and choppy. Other than DCA into spot and waiting for opportunities, there’s no chance to do take-profit at the top and buy low using contract leverage. If you insist on doing it, in the end you will definitely lose a lot! The BTC with a price starting with 6 is now cheap—buy the one starting with 5 with your eyes closed…
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