ISO600818

Recently, in response to numerous requests from fans, I have established a channel to share my personal high-win-rate strategies and operations.

Currently free to join, limited number of spots, be quick or miss out.

@iso600888818

#合约爆仓 #合约挑战 #合约养家 #合约带单 $DOGE $PEPE $PNUT

December 31 Market
Technical Analysis:
BTC
1. The daily chart shows a volume increase with a bearish candlestick. The spiral bearish candlestick is negative, but there are mixed opinions. Recently, there have been multiple tests of the previous low support; after briefly breaking through, there was a quick recovery, indicating strong resistance from bulls.

2. Based on the recent decrease in both magnitude and speed, pay attention to the B-wave rebound after the end of the A-wave — overall, maintaining a high-level consolidation.

3. Patterns and Principles
(1) Short-term oscillating downward forms a wedge; right-side trades for long positions need to focus on buying opportunities after the breakdown of the descending trendline based on the 123 principle.
(2) This year to date, every time a wedge pattern appears at a high price, there has been a rebound starting from the Fibo 0.382 support level, with only May dropping to Fibo 0.5, which serves as a historical reference.

4. Note: During the monthly and yearly closing phases, sudden technical breakouts cannot be ruled out, but based on the historical adjustments from high positions, since the beginning of 2023, only the decline from early this year to August has exceeded 20%. The adjustment magnitude during other periods has generally remained around 20%. Corresponding to the current pullback, using 20% as a baseline, the lower low maintains above the main upward trendline — the foundation of the bull market still exists, and a pullback means buying opportunities.

5. Existing Issues:
(1) Left-side and right-side trading
Left-side trading:
Disadvantages: Predictive bottom-fishing goes against short-term trends; based on the upward trendline, there is an approximate 8% space, making short-term trading unsuitable.
Advantages: Even if there are potential spikes due to closing issues in the short term, based on the above analysis — limited decline and strong support below,
(1) It is beneficial for bottom-fishing, capturing the price.
(2) If the market declines afterward, one can buy on dips to gain a cost advantage on the average price.
(3) Avoid sudden bullish starts, losing trading opportunities — suitable for medium to long-term positioning.

Right-side trading:
Disadvantages: Waiting for price confirmation to enter long positions will result in losing some bullish profits (not the optimal low point) and carries the risk of potential false breakouts when chasing highs.
Advantages: Aligns with trend trading, suitable for short-term trading.

6. In summary, historical patterns (high-level pullback space + formations) indicate that short-term declines are limited. In situations where short-term movements are difficult to grasp, one can adopt a phased spot layout.

#MicroStrategy增持BTC $PEPE $DOGE $USUAL

Next article "Technical side"

Technical side:
1. BTC + futures price weekly lines are both long upper shadow and shrinking volume negative lines. Under the circumstances of rebound resistance + sluggish trading, the technical side tends to continue to adjust. The short-term price is close to the previous low point, which is a test for bulls. Pay attention to the breakout situation.
2. The monthly and annual lines are about to be closed. At this node, we need to guard against black swan trends. Pay attention to the main dealers using K lines to create technical traps on the K line.
3. In the daily chart, the price rebound is weak, and the low point center of gravity moves downward - short-term. The overall tendency is to fall in the middle - given that the price is still in the rectangular range, pay attention to the support of MA60 in the short term
4. In the trend of the pattern, we need to pay attention to the potential falling channel. If it falls below the recent low, it is not ruled out that the ABCD is formed around the potential falling channel. If a break occurs, there will be a large space for correction below
5. In the 4H trend, the price is always suppressed by the short-term EMA moving average. The pattern is a falling triangle. It is currently approaching the end of the pattern and faces a direction choice in the short term
6. In view of the stop loss of the short position that broke last Friday, under the premise of key positions and change nodes, it is particularly necessary to pay attention to the possible false breakthroughs/breaks during the period. Stable trading can wait for the right trading signal after choosing the direction
7. Indicator level
(1) KD is running in the short-term oversold zone. The overall pattern needs to be considered under the theoretical rebound demand, especially at the key node of choosing the direction. It cannot be used alone
Reason: Last Friday, KD was also in the oversold zone and there was a need for blunt repair, but the price continued to fall after a brief rebound, and the overall trend was weak
(2) RSI is still running weak
(3) MACD short-term bearish potential weakened but still below the 0 axis. Unless the golden cross stands above the 0 axis, it is necessary to consider the "oil leakage" (fall) in the air.

In summary, BTC is at a critical node of market change. In the case of weak short-term rebound, bulls still face a great test. Although game trading has advantages in stop loss setting, for trend trading, right-side trading is more stable. Monday's market change rules, it is suitable to wait and see, waiting for the direction to be chosen.

Note: When the mainstream currency is weak + facing the direction to be chosen, the trading focus can be biased towards the layout of altcoins. If there is a suitable target, it will be released immediately. Pay attention to the relevant information.

#合约爆仓 #合约挑战 $PNUT $ACT $PEPE

12.30日，本周总体宏观分析，因字数限制，全文分上下两篇。

上篇《宏观面》
宏观面：
1、本周前段因元旦假期，多地休市；后段关注美国PMI数据+美联储票委讲话——目前市场缺乏刺激，关注讲话内容
2、美联储传声筒：正试图评估新政府对于经济和通胀的影响
2025年的货币政策（降息）对于币圈而言，资金流动性相对紧缩——利空，但川普执政的不确定性导致机会与挑战共存
3、高盛2025展望中：AI认为科技行业主旋律
2024年的科技股表现几乎全年牛市，宽松的宏观环境对科技股+AI概念的股票形成助力，其中Marvell、台积电、英伟达、Arista Networks等涨幅超75%——生成式AI仍将是科技行业的 主导主题。其中，高盛列出的2025年10个重要主题中，AI主题几乎占据半壁江山，关注AI板块代币的布局机会
4、BTC现货ETF在近期低迷的走势中呈现出流出状态，需要新的刺激点来带动资金入场

上篇完结，稍后更新下篇，点个关注不迷路，每天分享思路与操作～

#本周微策略是否继续增持BTC？ #币安LaunchpoolBIO预测 #合约爆仓 #合约养家 #合约挑战 $DOGE $PEPE $PNUT

"Will 25 years be a crazy bull market?" (2)

Simply speaking, if too much money is printed, some of it will flow into the financial market, and the cryptocurrency market will also get a share. Imagine that when central banks and the Federal Reserve of various countries flood the market with money, print money crazily, major stock markets soar, and a new round of bull market cycle begins, then your Bitcoin will just lie there and not move. Is it possible? Halving and flooding the market will not be able to support it, which means the end of the Bitcoin bull market cycle, which means that a large number of people in the cryptocurrency market will lose confidence in the cryptocurrency market, and it will also be a major blow to those OTC funds that are still waiting and watching.

Take a step back and say that if the world floods the market with money, Bitcoin is halved, and the market makers do not pull the price, it is ok, no problem.

Then, if the price is pulled later, when will it be pulled? What reason will be used as the reason for pulling the price? What is the opportunity? At this time, some people may say: What reason is needed for pulling the price? Funds are the hard truth.

What I want to say is that, first of all, malicious market manipulation is a criminal act. Usually, you dealers cooperate with exchanges to maliciously pull up and smash, and insert pins and blow up contracts to achieve the purpose of controlling the market. Many people turn a blind eye to this and know it well. But in the face of Bitcoin halving + global flooding, you are doing these, maliciously controlling the market, which is equivalent to standing up and saying loudly: I just don’t want to pull, I will manipulate the market. I think no dealer institution would be so stupid.

There is not only one dealer institution in the market. The current currency circle is a big cake. Macro flooding + Bitcoin halving, this epic double benefit, other dealers don’t rush, this dealer rushes, this is the paradise of capital. As long as the Bitcoin bull and bear cycle is not broken, the life of leeks will have ideas, and no matter how hard and tired they are, they will make "contributions" to the industry.

Let the leeks think that Bitcoin halving + global flooding is a bull market, and uproot the leeks in one round (bull-bear cycle failure), so that the leeks lose confidence in this circle. If you are capital, which one would you choose? The pie (bull-bear) is real, but whether you can eat it or whether you will spit it out after eating it depends on the personal ability of the leeks. As I often say, you can make money in the bull market by buying with your eyes closed. When the bull market ends, the key is to keep the profit.
#本周微策略是否继续增持BTC？ #币安LaunchpoolBIO预测 #ATA涨势分析 #加密ETF申请热潮涌现 #币安Alpha公布第8批项目
$PNUT $PEPE $DOGE

Is 2025 a Wild Bull Market? (1)

It has become a consensus among most people that the cryptocurrency market will be bullish in 2024 and 2025, but some people wonder: If everyone thinks the next two years will be a bull market, will the bull market still come?

First, the conclusion: Yes.

There are no special tricks in trading; on a larger scale, people have been trading since birth, constantly weighing pros and cons. What I mentioned above may seem vague, but when it comes to financial trading, especially in the cryptocurrency market, it becomes even simpler. Seasons change, the moon waxes and wanes, the sun rises and sets; these are the laws of nature.

Market bull and bear transitions are similar; when you extend the timeline, these trends are quite graspable. A bull market doesn't emerge overnight, and a bear market doesn't end in a day. In trading, there's no need to chase absolute lows; absolute lows may only last for a few seconds. For example, during the last bull market, few people managed to catch the low of 3120 or 3800. In hindsight, buying between 4000-6000 would also be considered capturing a relatively low point during the last bear market, which is normal.

Now let's focus on: Will 2025 be a bull market?

The general consensus now is that 2025 will be a wild bull market, and I've also seen many skeptical voices, such as: If everyone knows there will be a bull market in 2025, will the bull still come as everyone wishes? If everyone knows there will be a bull market in 2025, won't they all have made money?

In response to this, I previously mentioned “Unity of Knowledge and Action”; knowing is one thing, but whether you can act on it is the most important. After all, ancient emperors had no personal matters, and today we have decentralized transparency. The halving of Bitcoin is visible to all, so knowing is not difficult, and that's one point.

Secondly, I have stated that the current Bitcoin still lacks the ability to lead the market, rising against the overall financial trading trend. Therefore, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin is closely related to the macroeconomic environment. How do bull markets come about? By injecting liquidity. How do they end? Through interest rate hikes. The previously known cycles of bull and bear markets have all followed this pattern.

The previous section has concluded; follow me for updates on the next part!

In this era, wealth is no longer a compensation for labor, but a reward for cognition.

The marginal return that can be exchanged for labor is getting smaller and smaller, and the value of labor is constantly depreciating with age.

The biggest competition in this world is the competition of cognition, which is the core key to winning.

All those who can successfully counterattack are not ordinary people. They may be of ordinary origin, ordinary appearance, ordinary education, ordinary resources and connections, but their cognition is no longer ordinary.

The way for ordinary children to counterattack is not only to be well versed in social rules, but also to have a deep insight into human nature and upgrade their cognition of the essence and laws of things, so that they can be good at distinguishing people, identifying people, using people, managing people and conquering people.

The greatest sorrow of a person is that when you understand the rules of this society and the truth of human nature, you are no longer young! When you reach the age of forty and understand it, it may be difficult for you to turn the tables at this time!

This is the limitation of cognition on a person.
If you don’t understand human nature, you will be wrong for life! #币安将上市ACX、ORCA #比特币回升至97K #ENA突破1美元 #SUI市场新焦点 #山寨币市场观察

First, let's review the last bull market that birthed 61 hundredfold coins.
The last bull market created many hundredfold coins, and this current bull market is no different; the crypto space is never short of narrative directions.

Back to the point, what information can we glean from the 61 hundredfold coins in the last bull market?

Several necessary conditions for hundredfold coins in the last bull market are also indicators for selecting the next round of hundredfold coins, so let’s discuss them together.

First, they must be new coins that emerged during the bear market after Bitcoin peaked, without having gone through a bull market. Based on the previous cycle, we consider mid-2021 as the starting point for the bull market and outline the timeline for the birth of the hundredfold coins.

76% were born between 2018-2020, 24% were born in 2017, and 200-fold: 85% were born between 2018-2019. Only 1.7% of these hundredfold coins were born at the end of the bull market!

From this logic, we should pay close attention to new coins released between 2022-2023. The market cap must be low; ideally, the market cap at the time of entry should not exceed $500 million.
The 61 hundredfold coins from the last cycle all began with a market cap within the top 600~ Additionally, narrative direction is important. Looking back, public chains accounted for the largest share, with 17 hundredfold coins, making up 27.8%; followed by gamefi with 5 hundredfold coins. Then came cross-chain, DeFi, and meme sectors.

Before the last bull market, public chains received little attention, but later Ethereum gained immense recognition, and various public chains were widely focused on, leading to a "Hundred Chains Contending" scenario. As for this round, sectors like the L2, Hong Kong, artificial intelligence, and gamefi are worthy of attention. The gamefi sector must be a focal point; during a bull market, there is significant user base growth, something only the gamefi sector can achieve, resulting in a better wealth creation effect. In fact, the narrative of the last round's gamefi was merely an appetizer; overall, it had little playability. Therefore, we look forward to the next round's performance.

Next, consider the project background and team strength. The institutions that have successfully invested in many hundredfold coins include Multicoin, Polychain, Alameda, BN, A16Z, etc.

Furthermore, regarding token distribution, the best unlock circulation should be distributed within the 40%-60% range, which is also the area where many hundredfold coins from the last bull market had a high probability of occurrence.

To summarize:
1. Project issuance time: Bear market
2. Sector selection: Leading or second-tier in each track
3. Circulating market cap: Below $500 million
4. Project background: Strength! (Check investment institutions)
$BTC $DOGE $WLD #比特币今晨触及90.5K #历史见证者打卡

Although many people say that there will be no interest rate cut this year, I still stick to my judgment. Sure enough, the expected interest rate cut came tonight. So, the environment is really important. Don't be affected by other people's emotions.

#杰克逊霍尔年会 #新币挖矿TON #美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落 #币安Web3钱包 #美国7月PPI低于预期 $PEPE $WIF $SYS

Today we use data to talk about why there has not been a general rise in the altcoin season this round?

Use total3 as the altcoin market value, and use the total market value of several major stablecoins as the overall market value of stablecoins.

First, the conclusion: First, before the Fed cut interest rates, the market value of stablecoins did not grow fast enough, and second, the overall market value of altcoins is much larger than the previous round.

From November 2019 to November 2020, the total market value of stablecoins increased from 4.7 billion to 21.3 billion, with a change multiple of 4.53, while total3 increased from 51 billion to 98.6 billion, with a change multiple of only 1.93. Therefore, total3/stablecoin dropped from 10.8 to 4.54, which means that the increase in market value during this period corresponds to a reduction in liquidity leverage. This also laid the foundation for the crazy altcoin season from November 2020 to May 2021. Not only did it not overdraw inflows, but it accumulated rising power.

From November 20 to May 21, the total market value of stablecoins increased from 21.3 billion to 84.7 billion, with a change multiple of 3.97, while total3 increased from 98.6 billion to 886 billion, with a change multiple of 8.98. Therefore, total3/stablecoin increased from 4.54 to 10.45. This period of altcoins with a general increase of 8-10 times took advantage of liquidity leverage and maximized the growing market value of stablecoins.

In this round, from October 23, the market value of stablecoins reversed the downward trend and turned to growth. Until March 24, the total market value of stablecoins increased from 116.3 billion to 139.4 billion, with a change multiple of 1.19, while total3 increased from 318.8 billion to 757.6 billion, with a change multiple of 2.37. Therefore, total3/stablecoin increased from 2.74 to 5.44, which means that BTC has not yet reached a historical high, and the market value growth of altcoins has begun to use liquidity leverage.

This is also the reason why the decline of BTC in this round is only 17% while the decline of altcoins is 50%. In the figure, total3 only fell by 28% in this range, which also means that the decline of altcoins is uneven. And the continuous issuance and unlocking of new coins distorts the indicators, and the decline in market value is less than the decline in the average price of altcoins.
#美国5月核心PCE物价指数年率增幅创2021年3月以来新低 #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #VanEck提交首个SolanaETF #IntroToCopytrading #以太坊ETF批准预期
$BTC $ETH $SOL