牛奔策略

690 Posts

牛奔策略

你好，我是牛奔。币圈长期生存选手，K线行为观察员，职业接盘与逃顶失败研究专家。这些年，我长期活跃在牛市追涨、熊市抄底、震荡市左右挨打的第一线。我一生都在这个充满未知的市场里摸爬滚打。

High-Frequency Trader

5.5 Years

1.7K+ Following

1.4K+ Followers

1.0K+ Liked

Posts

All

Quotes

Videos

PINNED

·

--

Article

The process of transitioning from Alpha to Perp from the exchange's perspective: targeting non-meme tokens

Why must some assets go on contract while others never will.
1. Background
1. In the eyes of many, the transition of a token from Alpha to launching a perpetual contract (Perp) seems like a natural result of 'gaining traction'.
2. However, from the exchange's perspective, this is not a marketing or reward mechanism, but a strict financialization decision.
3. Alpha is about verifying whether assets can be priced by the market, while Perp is about confirming whether it is worth being 'financialized'.
2. Why does the exchange promote Alpha → Perp?
1. Within the exchange, whether to launch a contract essentially depends on three things: whether there is a sustained, genuine divergence between bulls and bears; whether there is stable, predictable trading demand; and whether it can generate long-term fee cash flow under controllable risks.

PINNED

·

--

Opened a chat room, you can join the group to chat

·

--

Bearish

Verified

Have my views on $ZAMA changed over the past 10 months?
1. On January 10 this year, I wrote a research piece on ZAMA. The core argument was: it either becomes cross-chain privacy computing infrastructure and survives, or gradually turns into a project with only narrative value.
2. Ten months have passed, and ZAMA has indeed undergone some noteworthy changes.
3. ZAMA chose not to compete in the L1/L2 arms race, but instead remained focused on building privacy computing infrastructure. This is consistent with my original view. It aims to become an intermediary layer like Chainlink, allowing existing public blockchains to directly access FHE privacy computing capabilities without having to develop them themselves.
4. Real-world applications are beginning to emerge. The total value locked in ZAMA has exceeded $100 million. In particular, the private-yield vaults integrated with Morpho show that FHE is no longer just a technical concept—real assets are now being put to use in actual applications.
5. My biggest question remains unanswered: Why would other L1s/L2s need to use ZAMA? At present, real-world applications are still highly concentrated in the Ethereum ecosystem, and there is still a long way to go before it becomes universal cross-chain privacy infrastructure.
6. Compared with January, my assessment of ZAMA’s fundamentals has improved. It has moved from a purely technical narrative toward initial commercial adoption.
But proving that there is demand for FHE does not prove that ZAMA is irreplaceable; proving that people are using it does not prove that the token can sustainably capture value.
7. ZAMA has shown that it has a chance of surviving, but it has yet to prove that it can become the Chainlink of privacy computing.
8. For now, it is still only suitable for short-term trend trading.

牛奔策略

·

--

Bearish

Research on $ZAMA : Either艰难 become the infrastructure of privacy computing to survive, or slowly die

1. The Essential Relationship between ZAMA and FHE
(1) The core of ZAMA is not blockchain, but FHE. FHE itself is a public, open-source, academically evolved paradigm for encrypted data computation. ZAMA provides an engineered, more usable implementation of FHE, aiming to build development toolchains and runtime environments on top of it.
(2) Fundamentally: ZAMA = an engineering implementation and commercial attempt of FHE, not FHE itself.
(3) This means: technical barriers exist, but they are not inherently irreplaceable.
2. If ZAMA is positioned as a 'privacy L1/L2'

2. If ZAMA defines itself as a privacy blockchain:
(1) Attract developers to deploy DApps/DeFi directly on the chain, hosting application ecosystems, capturing value through TVL, transaction fees, and token economics.
(2) Then the conclusion is very clear: in the current extremely crowded L1/L2 race, failure can be almost immediately declared.
(3) Privacy as the 'only selling point' is insufficient to drive a public blockchain flywheel.

3. If ZAMA aims to become the 'Chainlink of privacy computing'
(1) This is the only viable path for ZAMA: do not build a main chain, but serve as privacy computing infrastructure for the execution layer.
(2) Similar positioning: 'Privacy-as-a-Service' or 'privacy execution co-processor'
(3) But a critical question immediately arises: why should L1/L2 delegate privacy execution to ZAMA? Can't they do it themselves?
(4) This is not a technical issue, but a sovereignty issue.

4. The Real Risk for ZAMA: Being 'Always Optional, Never Mandatory'
(1) Before ZAMA becomes an 'unavoidable privacy layer', it faces a dangerous middle state: FHE is important, but implementations are substitutable; privacy demand exists, but outsourcing is not necessary.
(2) Mainstream chains have too many alternatives: self-developed simplified privacy computing, using ZK/TEE/application-layer privacy workarounds, or 'postponing the solution'.

Conclusion: If ZAMA cannot extend to broader applications, what remains is mostly narrative value and speculative space.

·

--

Bullish

I've always really liked the Lighte project.
1. The project has real revenue and buybacks—these are the bare minimum for a good project.
2. Its trading volume has climbed to the No. 2 spot among Perp DEXs.
3. Robinhood's new business is a major positive, but also a risk, and it brings greater volatility.
4. The $LIT unlock is really annoying too.
5. I like this project, but not enough to hold it no matter what. I'm trading its trends and swings.

牛奔策略

·

--

Can Lighter become the second-largest Perp DEX?

In every sector, what I focus on most is which projects ultimately make it into the top two. That’s because as many sectors mature, they become increasingly concentrated. In the Perp DEX sector, HYPE’s position as the clear leader is difficult to challenge for now, but Lighter is already one of the strongest contenders for second place in my view, and one I’ll continue to watch closely.
I. There is currently no doubt that HYPE is the clear leader
As of November 8, 2026, DefiLlama data shows that Hyperliquid’s perpetual futures trading volume over the past 30 days was approximately $236.9 billion. If Lighter’s activity on its main platform and Robinhood Chain is combined, its main platform accounted for approximately $55.8 billion, while perpetual futures trading on Robinhood Chain accounted for approximately $19.2 billion, for a combined total of nearly $75 billion. ASTER recorded approximately $46.2 billion over the past 30 days.

·

--

Verified

Article

Can Lighter become the second-largest Perp DEX?

In every sector, what I focus on most is which projects ultimately make it into the top two. That’s because as many sectors mature, they become increasingly concentrated. In the Perp DEX sector, HYPE’s position as the clear leader is difficult to challenge for now, but Lighter is already one of the strongest contenders for second place in my view, and one I’ll continue to watch closely.
I. There is currently no doubt that HYPE is the clear leader
As of November 8, 2026, DefiLlama data shows that Hyperliquid’s perpetual futures trading volume over the past 30 days was approximately $236.9 billion. If Lighter’s activity on its main platform and Robinhood Chain is combined, its main platform accounted for approximately $55.8 billion, while perpetual futures trading on Robinhood Chain accounted for approximately $19.2 billion, for a combined total of nearly $75 billion. ASTER recorded approximately $46.2 billion over the past 30 days.

·

--

Bearish

$PONS It looks like it's going to be hard to recover
1. Revenue continues to decline: only about $236,000 in 7 days, or roughly $33,800 per day.
2. On-chain activity remains sluggish, and it looks like it may stay that way for a long time.
3. The buyback yield can't even compete with PUMP.

牛奔策略

·

--

Is There Any Hope for My PONS Long Position?

I’ve been holding a long position, and so far there’s still no sign of a recovery.
PONS has fallen from its all-time high of around $0.97 to about $0.19, a drop of more than 80%. But the problem is that both the price and the business are declining—and the business is still deteriorating rapidly. Maybe my long position has a chance of recovering once the business stops falling.
1. PONS’s greatest source of value is still its buybacks
One of the main reasons I initially followed PONS was its real value capture: trading volume → fees → protocol revenue → PONS buybacks. To date, PONS has generated approximately $203 million in cumulative fees, around $36.75 million in cumulative protocol revenue, and roughly $23.91 million in cumulative returns for token holders. It’s not a project supported entirely by a narrative. But conversely, if its valuation is based on revenue and buybacks, then a decline in revenue means its valuation must be reassessed too.

·

--

Article

Is There Any Hope for My PONS Long Position?

I’ve been holding a long position, and so far there’s still no sign of a recovery.
PONS has fallen from its all-time high of around $0.97 to about $0.19, a drop of more than 80%. But the problem is that both the price and the business are declining—and the business is still deteriorating rapidly. Maybe my long position has a chance of recovering once the business stops falling.
1. PONS’s greatest source of value is still its buybacks
One of the main reasons I initially followed PONS was its real value capture: trading volume → fees → protocol revenue → PONS buybacks. To date, PONS has generated approximately $203 million in cumulative fees, around $36.75 million in cumulative protocol revenue, and roughly $23.91 million in cumulative returns for token holders. It’s not a project supported entirely by a narrative. But conversely, if its valuation is based on revenue and buybacks, then a decline in revenue means its valuation must be reassessed too.

·

--

Bullish

Why did I hold a long position in $PEPE ?
1. I recently bought a little PEPE. In my daily strategy, I divide Memes into two categories. Among Memes that aren’t strongly tied to Binance, I’m currently focusing on just four:
PEPE, DOGE, PENGU, SHIB.
2. PEPE has already been through a complete bull-bear cycle, but it hasn’t disappeared. It was arguably the most successful new Meme of the last bull market. PEPE has at least passed the first round of screening.
3. PEPE is gradually developing its own “celebrity narrative.”
4. DOGE is still the big brother of Memes, but it’s an asset from the previous generation. PEPE, on the other hand, is more like a Meme that truly broke out during the last bull market and managed to stick around.
5. My reasoning for buying it is actually simple: if the Meme market heats up again, I want to hold a Meme that has already been proven by the previous market and that people are still willing to tell stories about this time around. For now, I choose PEPE.

·

--

$EDGE Is DYDX next?
1. Trading volume and buybacks have continued to decline.
2. The top players in the sector capture most of the gains.

牛奔策略

·

--

Is EDGE the Next DYDX?

Conclusion: $EDGE EDGE has real revenue and buybacks, but it hasn’t yet proven it can return to growth.
I’ve been researching EDGE lately. What first caught my attention was actually quite simple: it has real revenue, real buybacks, and a valuation that looks very cheap.
EDGE’s cumulative buybacks and burns have now reached 5.09% of its total supply. Over the past 30 days, token Holder Revenue was about $618,000. Based on its current circulating market cap of around $118 million, its annualized value accrual rate is still roughly 6%.
Looking at these figures alone, EDGE even seems relatively “cheap” among assets in the DEX sector right now. But the deeper I dig, the more cautious I become. The biggest question around EDGE may not be its price, but this: could it become the next DYDX?

·

--

Verified

Article

Is EDGE the Next DYDX?

Conclusion: $EDGE EDGE has real revenue and buybacks, but it hasn’t yet proven it can return to growth.
I’ve been researching EDGE lately. What first caught my attention was actually quite simple: it has real revenue, real buybacks, and a valuation that looks very cheap.
EDGE’s cumulative buybacks and burns have now reached 5.09% of its total supply. Over the past 30 days, token Holder Revenue was about $618,000. Based on its current circulating market cap of around $118 million, its annualized value accrual rate is still roughly 6%.
Looking at these figures alone, EDGE even seems relatively “cheap” among assets in the DEX sector right now. But the deeper I dig, the more cautious I become. The biggest question around EDGE may not be its price, but this: could it become the next DYDX?

·

--

Bearish

$BTC I didn't sell too early this time, so the buyback price won't be too high next time.

·

--

$ON You piece of shit, you only started pumping it after I sold.

·

--

#币安神算子 Ever since that one Inter Milan pick dropped to zero, things have been getting slower and slower. Man, it’s getting harder and harder to make the rankings.

·

--

#币安神算子 Inter Milan's stoppage-time comeback yesterday wiped out my points completely. I was only hoping to make 2 points on a late trade, but I placed my order just a little too early and bet on a draw. Who could've seen that comeback coming? Now I have to slowly build my points back up again. The more I play this prediction game, the more interesting I find it.

·

--

#币安神算子 requested a prediction for the LoL match. The match ended 30 minutes ago, and even the later draws are over, but the bet on BLG to win still hasn't been settled. I still haven't received any points for my later NBA Cavaliers bet 🥶🥶

·

--

Bearish

Day 94 of execution | 400 trades completed
1. Don’t rely on one-off performance; rely on following the rules time and again.
2. Yesterday was 2026-10-23, day 94 of execution. The short-term strategy executed 8 trades with no deviations, bringing the cumulative total to 400 trades.
3. The daily trend strategy opened 0 trades and closed 3, with no deviations, bringing the cumulative total to 15 trades. $SUI $TAO $ICP
4. The short-term strategy will continue to maintain 5 watchlists, while adding Alpha token monitoring. The daily trend strategy will continue to observe and manage assets by sector.
Keep executing. Don’t predict—just follow the signals.

·

--

#币安神算子 Shouldn't there be live scores for sports games? Adding live scores can't be that hard. Even if they update a little slowly, we could still see the previous score. This baseball game is only in the third inning, and I still have to go somewhere else to find the score.

·

--

Bullish

$IRYS , I'm speechless—it surged almost 20x. This alert was spot-on; I just didn't put enough in myself.

牛奔策略

·

--

$IRYS Even with alerts going off and losing a little money, I only dare make ultra-short-term trades. With BTC going nowhere, everything is so hard.

·

--

$IRYS Even with alerts going off and losing a little money, I only dare make ultra-short-term trades. With BTC going nowhere, everything is so hard.

·

--

#币安神算子 There are so many markets on the official site, but this event has so few—it's pretty dull.
Add more sports markets, and bring back the up/down predictions soon 😀

Log in to explore more content