[Why is there no 4-year bull-bear cycle for BTC anymore?]
This needs to talk about the mechanism of BTC. The total amount of BTC is 21 million. Since the creation of BTC (2009).
Every 10 minutes, 1 block is rewarded, and 1 block contains 50 BTC. However, after every 210,000 blocks (approximately 4 years), the number of BTC rewarded per block is halved.
Approximately 2.63 million BTC was mined in the first year. About 10 million BTC was mined in the first 4 years.
Starting from the fourth year, because the reward for each block is 'halved', 1 block only rewards 25 BTC. At this time, only 1.3 million BTC is mined each year.
Then in the second four years, a total of 5.2 million BTC was mined.
Last night's market was reminiscent of the security levels of two streets: U.S. stocks 1)Opening: U.S. stocks lightly wounded, cryptocurrency market "bleeding profusely"
Last night, U.S. stocks actually didn't drop that much; according to traditional financial narratives, it was at most called "emotional fluctuations".
But Bitcoin hit a low of 60,000 directly, and what's even more exaggerated is: the rebound was also strong, approaching ten percent.
This indicates that last night was not a "normal pullback"; it was more like "after a concentrated sell-off, someone reopened the door".
If you can rebound by ten percent, it means that the drop last night wasn't the market "slowly selling off", but rather "rushing to escape".
2)Market personification: Bitcoin is like a "cash machine", spitting out 45 billion USD daily.
The number you provided is quite shocking: In less than a month, 1 trillion USD evaporated, averaging 45 billion USD evaporated daily.
* Previously, during the rise, the market relied on "stories" to sustain (narratives, tracks, ecology, revolution)
* Now, during the drop, the market only has "incidents" flooding the screens (explosions, liquidations, chain reactions)
3)Indeed bearish:
Without new stories, there’s no "reason to catch the falling knife". "The market has also turned bearish" (trend downwards/seeking the bottom)
In the "bottom-seeking phase", the biggest trap is:
The bottom is not a point; it is a period of time.
What you are catching is the "first pit", while the market gives you a "chain of pits".
4)"Don’t try to catch the altcoins"
What you said is actually very important and very "against human nature":
Never try to catch the bottom of some altcoins. Because many altcoins may not exist in the next bull market.
This sentence breaks the illusion that old investors love to deceive themselves with: "If it drops too much, it will come back up."
No, the fate of many altcoins in the cryptocurrency world is:
If it drops too much, it will be gone.
5)Risk warning: We don't know what point Bitcoin's final price will reach?
The correct posture during the bottom-seeking period is not to "guess the bottom", but to "wait for the market to solidify the bottom itself".
When to wait? Stabilization - EMA weekly line effectively breaks through.
At this time, if you catch altcoins, it's like picking up a lighter on a stormy night - you indeed found one, but you also got completely soaked.
1. Today is another day of significant drops for BTC, it's almost falling below the previous bull market high.
In other words, if you entered at the previous bull market high, after waiting for over 4 years, you're almost breaking even now.
Therefore, value investing is important – the assets are important, but timing and price are equally important.
2. I couldn't resist buying a bit at this price today. But rationally, if looking at the long term, I shouldn't have bought.
After all, this is a long-term investment, and it hasn't really reached the ideal point for long-term holding. – But that's human nature; indeed, it's hard to control, and I can accept a position that incurs a small loss to make myself feel "comfortable."
Ideally, I shouldn't be looking at the price; I should be looking at technical indicators and time dimensions.
If BTC stabilizes its fluctuations – I estimate it will take about 5 weeks+, and then if it drops significantly again, when it stabilizes, I will enter a large position.
Looking at the technical indicators, it's likely below 50,000.
1. Last night, BTC dropped below 73,000. ETH reached a low of 2,100.
In this market, don't expect a rebound from an oversold condition. Because the bottom is indeed not obvious at the moment. It's similar to gambling.
For example, I previously thought 1 was a good value, so I bought some. Last night before sleeping, it pulled up by 50%. As a result, this morning I woke up to find it brought back down by the market.
Let's wait for the market to stabilize before looking for a resonance point.
2. What is liking?
We often say to do what we like. But what exactly is liking?
In fact, the word liking is not very good. Because some likes are common – for example, everyone likes money, likes beautiful things; dislikes tiring or bad things.
Moreover, many things we like have to go through some things we dislike.
To summarize: Sometimes, certain words really have too much impact on us. Don't get caught up in liking or disliking. Just do well with what you have in hand.
3. I have been pursuing a feeling of being desireless and demandless.
At one point, I even thought that death is the highest state for everyone, because death means being desireless and demandless.
But today I listened to a podcast, and he said – people have desires and some 'small selves'; it’s precisely because we are still alive.
Right, thinking about it this way makes me feel at ease.
$HYPE Doing long-term BTC, are there any good K-line indicators to recommend?
Yes~ Weekly EMA56.
Many people also look at Daily MA120, but based on my experience from two cycles of bull and bear markets, the Weekly EMA56 is a very good long-term indicator for BTC.
It's also very simple to operate:
If the weekly K-line effectively breaks below the Weekly EMA56, sell. Conversely~ if it breaks above, buy. No matter how it fluctuates in between, just ignore it.
From this perspective, in the long run~ BTC has not yet reached a reasonable entry point.
So, I personally am not making much movement at the moment. If I feel the urge, I might buy a few hundred to a thousand U. But I will definitely wait for BTC to effectively break through EMA56 before making a large position.
Therefore, we are always influenced by certain things that evoke emotions. Once we have emotions, we inevitably need to do something to release them.
Sometimes it's eating, drinking, traveling...
But it can also be purchasing a specific meme asset. However, if we invest emotions in buying a meme, we cannot let emotions interfere, because this is investing.
So, we need to think, is the emotion expressed in this story intense? Is the explosive power strong? Which meme can carry this emotion? How is the story's传播力? Will it have a greater传播力?
Because not every good story will be spread.
And once this story is spread, if its explosive power/infectiousness is strong, we must pay close attention.
Additionally, consider: what is the current emotional value? If this emotion is spread more widely, what could its value be?
For example, today's penguin.
This is a very good story and can spread well. Therefore, the j meme on the sol chain has been rising for the past few days. But the传播力 is still not enough, at least there are very few people discussing it in the Chinese-speaking community.
Today, the White House retweeted. It's a再传播 of emotions.
However, sol has already risen significantly, and bsc has also made a move, and since there is already the legitimate sol, it won't rise too much.
So, the emotions have shifted to the vulgar penguin. But after all, it is emotion, and it ended quickly.
Therefore, the only opportunity this morning was to go for the vulgar penguin. After all, it has already hit a very low point, and it can't drop much further. The odds are sufficient. I got in, but it was also a loss, a loss of 990,000. The lowest result was 1,000,000. Then the emotion hit, and it instantly rose 2.5 times. Don't save on these small amounts in the future.
However, today's event review still yielded significant insights.
Small capital wants to make 1 million U~just watch this one post (regret after selling Binance Life)
The principle is the first one in the image.
As someone who's been in the circle for 8 years, I've experienced countless moments like this.
Take $I'm Here, for example, just a few days ago. When it first appeared on Alpha, there was a wave of online criticism…………
But what followed those criticisms? $I'm Here surged 10x in just 4 days.
I bought into it based on the principle in image one.
Yet, even though I knew this principle, I still got scared by human fear and ended up selling too early on $Binance Life.
Recently, everyone was spreading FUD about Binance Life. Saying Chinese coins are skyrocketing, but the leader isn't moving.
For a moment, I got nervous too, especially since it's already on spot trading, and CZ himself said there won't be any more good news (FUD was saying the same thing).
So I sold all my Binance Life.
And then missed today's massive surge…………
There are so many examples like this. Including $ACT, which was heavily FUDed.
Then it shot up 10x in just one day.
So think about it—have you ever been scared by FUD and sold out, only to see it explode the next day?
Or sold right before it exploded?
My Binance Life… I sold too early… sold too early… I'm crying…...
1. This meme itself is quite popular, not only in the crypto community but also because this year is the Year of the Horse, which naturally lends itself to puns. Combined with Chinese cultural context, this asset has: Chinese elements + Year of the Horse + wordplay puns +++ most importantly, it was promoted by the main traffic driver — a top influencer posted about it, and it was featured on Binance Alpha.
2. The clear opportunity emerged after Binance Alpha featured this meme, sparking widespread backlash. However, this criticism was directed at Binance and its leadership, not the meme itself.
Ironically, this backlash actually boosted the meme's visibility; it also indicates that those who are complaining likely don’t hold any tokens and won’t dump. Therefore, their criticism has no real impact on the asset.
4. Furthermore, the negative comments from many KOLs will inevitably bring massive traffic. This exposure introduces the asset to a large audience. Among them, some may hold tokens, but the majority don’t (since the market cap was still relatively low at the time).
The motivations of these KOLs are limited to two: either they have no holdings and are just venting due to recent losses, or they want others to sell so they can buy at a lower price.
5. Looking further: among the massive traffic, a small portion may sell out of fear (FUD). As a result, the price initially corrected — dropping from around 5M to about 3.6M.
6. However, the token’s distribution is healthy — there were no suspicious addresses accumulating large positions ahead of time to manipulate or dump the price.
Therefore, once those selling due to FUD have exited, and with no malicious actors to cause a complete collapse, the price can recover. During this process, some buyers (like me) will step in, further driving the price upward.
7. As the price rises, more traffic comes in, fueling further price increases. This cycle continues until the current narrative reaches what people perceive as its peak valuation. #我踏马来了 $我踏马来了
The demand for new asset launches in this area is still quite strong.
However, no company with the vision of Binance in the previous round has emerged yet.
Therefore, competition among various platforms continues. Although there are a few leading ones—form pump virtual—but it's not yet a complete monopoly.
If a company can empower its native platform token and focus on user needs, it's highly likely to become a standout player.
In the future, many 'cultural' assets could potentially thrive through such platforms.
The recent intense competition in per also holds potential for exceptional companies. There are opportunities everywhere—just be patient and wait.