黑白作手

During lunch break, flipping through my phone to make a memo. That column says “I wanted to buy but didn’t,” and there are 12 of them this year.

Each one was almost an order—until I got stuck on a certain number and didn’t place it. Some are the ones where turnover changed hands more than a dozen times in a day; others were ones where the fee would eat up several percentage points in a day.

Today I checked each of these 12 and how they ended up going—9 of them fell. The one that fell the hardest dropped from 0.31 to 0.07.

I’m saying this isn’t to make myself look super accurate. I had no basis at the time at all—those numbers just looked off, and that’s why I pulled my hand back. I also remember the 3 that went up. One of them surged the most—I admit I missed it. After calculating, I felt a bit more at ease; I ended up dodging more than I missed. Tell me, have you counted trades you didn’t place like this too? In the end, were there more that went up or more that went down?

#炒币日常 #crypto-world-real

Tether released a statement yesterday saying that this year it helped U.S. law enforcement freeze about 550 million USDT related to Iran. Of that, two addresses were frozen in April for 344 million, and four more TRON wallets were frozen in July for a total of 130 million. The backdrop is that a U.S. Senate investigative panel issued a report saying that among the 846 Iran-linked wallets they examined, 84% use USDT for almost all transactions. The report directly calls USDT a lifeline—part of Iran’s shadow banking network.

I’ve written that 84% down in my notebook. Not because the number is huge, but because it shows that the liquidity of stablecoins has no real boundaries, and that freezes are only done after the fact. I also keep a bit of USDT on hand as “ammunition.” After reading this, I’m scared—can this money really be held safely? I can’t judge whether the report is fair or not. If I miscalculated, I’ll come back and correct it, but with 84% sitting there in front of us, shouldn’t we also figure out how much of our holdings could be frozen at any time? Do you think stablecoins are still safe?

$USDT
#加密新闻 #数据视角 #币圈真实

On one hand, they say “AI isn’t safe,” so they hold off on releasing it; on the other hand, Samsung pulls out $1 billion to pour into AI infrastructure. These two things happened within about an hour of each other.

Honestly, I looked at my phone for a long time and still couldn’t tell whose side to believe, so I went to check $NMR . It’s up 42.75% today. I worked it out myself: the low is 9.669, the high is 15.5—just within a single day, the spread is 60.3%.

With an amplitude like this, someone as shaky as me would probably get hit on both ends if I tried to jump in. I might be wrong—tell me, which side does this actually count as?

#市场快讯 #行情播报 #data perspective

NVIDIA token 232.2, today trading volume 205 million U. I originally thought that buying tokens could help me avoid that one jump when the US stock market opens. Before going to sleep last night, I even checked it on purpose—then I matched the times again and realized that during those 17 and a half hours when the market actually doesn’t open in the evening, this token itself already walked that stretch of the road. By the time the opening price was set, it was already fixed there. I thought I was avoiding risk, but really I was helping someone else set the price first. To put it bluntly, I may have gotten it wrong. Now I’m kind of scared. What do you think—am I wrong to think this way? Does a token count as avoiding the opening bell?

$NVDA
#炒币日常 #币圈真实 #data perspective

1.88 billion USD—using it besides the current SOL price, that equals 1.588 million SOL. I finished the math and then went to check the market data. It’s down today, -4.62%, now at 118.40. The money came in, but the price is still moving downward. I was stunned—I might have thought about it wrong. Having these two numbers side by side just feels awkward.

On the same day, $ONE rose 17.8%, with volume of 140 million USD (U). Open interest was 10.72 million USD (U). In a single day, it turned 13 times. Tell me—did this money actually count as coming in, or not?

#币圈真实 #CryptoTradingDaily

Before sleep I counted 727 coins one by one.
77 are red, 649 are green. I was afraid I’d miscount, so I counted them again—and still 77. In other words, today if you close your eyes and just buy one at random, you’re probably going to lose; the two I have are also in the green pile—nothing special about them. I might be wrong, but getting hit by today’s drop really isn’t just my problem. You tell me: in those 77 you have today, or are you unable to count even a single one?

#炒币日常 #crypto-world-real

I hit one, and Zano rolled the chain back 30 days because of that vulnerability last month.

My first reaction was to check my table—every transaction this year is in it. If the chain can be rolled back, then no matter how precisely I calculated these numbers, it’s all for nothing. The books are what I recorded, but the chain isn’t something I can control. When I thought of that, I panicked.

The one that’s been surging the most today is $SOON : up 29% in a single day, with $280 million in volume. But from today’s high, it’s already dropped 18.2%. The batch that bought in at the morning pump is all sitting at an unrealized loss now. I don’t dare to hold it. Tell me—would you dare to hold something like this overnight?

#币圈真实 #My holdings

I made myself a table: if you’re down 20%, you need to rise 25% to break even; if you’re down 50%, you need to rise by 100%; if you’re down 80%, you need to rise by 400%.

Today on the subway, I went through and calculated each of the few positions I’m stuck in. After I finished, it felt even worse than just looking at my account directly. I used to always think, “It’ll just come back up.” Turns out that’s not how it works at all. If you can see where I might have misunderstood, call out to me—I’ll check my math again.

Tell me: for the one you’re down the most on, how much does it need to rise for you to break even?

#炒币日常 #被套日常

When I came across that Iran-related news, my finger was itching so I tapped the app. BTC is only up +0.56% in a day. The negotiations didn’t fall apart, and the navy still seized another ship. After reading, I was pretty confused—like nothing happened. The position I hold, $RARE , is down 15.13% tonight, with trading volume still at 215 million U, and the positions are only 6 million U. Sigh. I flipped through it for ages but couldn’t figure out any connection to that news. Maybe I’m overthinking it. Do you guys think news like this is worth reading?
#币圈真实 #我的持仓 #CryptoTradingDaily

After seeing that SEC line while scrolling before bed, I was itching for three seconds.
If a project buys back tokens, as long as the network is truly running, it doesn’t count as a security. Back when I used to see the words “buyback,” I would charge in immediately. I chased it up two times and both times I got caught around halfway up the hill. This time I’m going to calculate first: tonight $GRASS is up 20.7%, the fee rate is only 0.005%, and the trading volume is more than three times the OI. Anyway, buybacks and whether the price goes up are two different things—I might be wrong. What do you think: when you see a message like this, do you just charge in, or do you calculate it first?

#币圈真实 #data perspective

$WLD Today there are trades worth 6.3 billion USD.
I took it and multiplied it by everything in my account—79,000 times.
After I finished calculating, I lay in bed but couldn’t fall asleep. It wasn’t envy; it was that suddenly I felt my little bit of money there couldn’t even make a sound.
I’ve written down dozens of numbers like this in my notes, and I’ve never pulled them up to look at them a second time.
At my level, what use is it to calculate these things?
You tell me—after doing these calculations, does it make you feel at ease or more annoyed? For me, it’s more annoyed.

#炒币日常 #My holdings

I saw Saylor’s video about that digital rights bill today—he was talking pretty big. While listening, I went through the fees for today’s 8 hours: $Q is up 46%, down 10% from today’s high; the fee rate is 0.1288% per transaction. Charging three times a day means 0.39%. Over a month that’s 12% gone—he was talking about ten years from now, but I was calculating the 12% I lose this month. I feel bad about it; I might be thinking about it wrong, but these are the numbers I calculated myself. Tell me—if this fee is applied for one month, is it worth it?

#币圈真实 #My holdings

This weekend I stayed home and went through this year’s orders one by one, line by line. I made 31 wins, lost 19, and the number of times I won was way higher than the number of times I lost—but in the end, when I added up the total, I was still down. When I won, I made a few hundred and took off; when I lost, I held on for a few thousand before I finally moved. After calculating it, I felt really annoyed and stifled inside. I thought I must have miscalculated, so I went through it a second time—and it was still the same number.

At my level, that’s pretty much how I’ve ended up losing. Tell me—does anyone else do this too? You win more, yet you still lose.
#我的持仓 #韭菜日记

Just refreshed to see the number: 2.7 billion.

This month, the Bitcoin spot ETF has net inflows that much—this is the first time this year it’s back in the green. I went ahead and looked up the one that jumped the most today. $QNT , up 81.02% in a day; current price 180.48; volume 536 million USDT.

I pulled up its high and low for today and did the calculation again: the low is 98.28, the high is 195—within a single day, it swings by 1.98x.

Honestly, I find this kind of amplitude makes my hands shake. I might be wrong, but with my level, I could get swept back and forth several times in a single day.

Tell me—can you hold on in something where the same day swings by 1.98x?

#数据视角 #币圈真实 #CryptoTradingDaily

On Sunday I exported and counted this year’s trade records—271 days, 384 trades.

On average 1.4 trades a day. I thought I was pretty good at holding back, but when I added it up I realized I’ve basically been moving almost every day.

Before going to bed, flipping through these records makes me feel a little sorry for myself. Over the course of a year, just those two buttons alone were clicked 384 times. I don’t know what I’m really aiming for in the chart—I might have miscounted. I’ll count again later.

So tell me—how many trades do you make in a year? Has anyone ever topped the number?

#我的持仓 #炒币日常 #说点实在的

Before going to sleep, I pulled out each of the orders I sold this year one by one and compared them with the highest prices from the 7 days after I sold.

There were 31 trades in total, and in 24 of them, the price rose again after I sold. I did the math: on average, after I sold, it rose another 18%.

After calculating, I was a bit stunned. The move I’m best at this year is selling early.

$MUBARAK in the morning still had an 18% gain; now it’s down to only 5%, with trading volume of 210 million. If I’d sold in the morning, I would have gotten it right once more—but I didn’t. Now that it’s fallen back, I’m reluctant to sell again. At my level, it’s possible to be wrong too—that’s normal.

So tell me: how often do you see it rise after you’ve sold?

#炒币日常 #我的持仓 #CryptoMarketMindset

Over the past two years, Kraken’s parent company has poured tens of billions in—$1.5 billion for a futures brokerage, $550 million for a derivatives platform, and even plans to buy a bank in Europe. Put simply, it doesn’t want to be just an exchange.

I read it twice, and there’s only one line that relates to me: in the future, the things you can buy will increase. Anyway, I searched through the two apps I usually use, and none of them had it.

As a side note, I quickly ran the numbers on the coin I’d been watching for two days: $SPELL at the current price of 0.000114, up 18.8%, but the funding rate is -0.098%—which means shorts are effectively paying longs.

I’ve seen this kind of structure before. Last time, after doing the math, I thought it would go up—then the next day it fell back down. I’m worried it’ll be the same this time. I missed once because I calculated wrong, so this time I won’t move. I might be wrong again.

You tell me—when there’s news like this from a big company, would you go look it up, or do you just, like me, read it and forget it?

#币圈真实 #我的持仓 #说点实在的

10-year Treasury yields hit 5.23%.

The highest since 2007. I also checked the CME while I was at it—the probability of a rate hike in October is 64%. Put simply, money can’t just sit still in one place for an entire night.

Today, on the gainers list, that $BR rose 26.07%, with trading volume of 177 million USD. I pulled up its positions to take a closer look together: overnight, only 30.49 million USD was left. It turns over about 6 times in a single day.

I don’t dare to touch something like this. After looking, I felt a bit scared. I might be thinking wrong, but I honestly don’t think this money is meant for me to earn.

You tell me—does this count as scaring yourself?

#行情播报 #数据视角 #fund flow

Today, on the weekend, I pulled out a spreadsheet. One column lists the reasons for buying—there are over 30 entries.

To be honest, about half of that column is blank—I don’t remember why I bought it back then. I just bought it because it looked like it was going up.

The ones where I did write reasons—looking back now, they’re kind of ridiculous too. Sigh. This is where I’m bad: I’m bad at this.

I’ll keep recording anyway, even if it’s only so I can know what I’m doing. Do you dare to flip through one too?

#我的持仓 #炒币日常 #Crypto-trading mindset

BTC holders cashed in a total of $2.4 billion this period.

When I see this, I first went to check the historical data at the top. Back then, the daily figure was between $7 and $10 billion. Now it’s short by almost 3 times. I translated what I understand as follows: someone ran, but not everyone ran together. I might be wrong, but after I did the calculations, I wasn’t as panicked. The $BTC at the current price is 84,162. I don’t have any of it in my hands—I’m just watching. To put it plainly, this is all the action I can take right now.

You tell me—does this mean it’s not over yet, or is it just that the run is happening more slowly?

#市场快讯 #数据视角 #币圈真实