HaroRT

$ZAMA — Binance Listing Live, Squeeze Loading.
Action: LONG / BUY 🟢
• Entry: $0.037 – $0.04
• Target: $0.052 | $0.060 | $0.075
• Stop-loss: $0.035
Whales accumulated 42.8M ZAMA at an average entry of $0.0466 just before listing—they are positioned for a breakout, not a dump. With over 80% of shorts clustered near $0.052, a clean break there will trigger a violent squeeze. $ZAMA leads the Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE) meta; with staking now active and Tier-1 liquidity flowing in, the asymmetric upside is massive.

$BULLA
price increase after strong pull, the short-term structure begins to weaken.

Trade Bias: SHORT
Entry: 0.30 – 0.34 USD
Stop-loss: 0.39 USD
Targets: 0.26 → 0.21 → 0.188 USD

BULLA is trading around 0.312 USD after rising 147%, mainly due to speculative capital flows and the Binance Alpha listing information. Structurally, the price has moved too far from the support base: currently much higher than the 99-day EMA (~0.127 USD). RSI around 70 indicates overbought conditions, while MACD remains positive but the slope is decreasing, reflecting that upward momentum is no longer expanding.

On-chain and derivative data indicate increasing risk of correction. The top 10 wallets hold about 98% of the total supply, making the supply structure less secure if profit-taking occurs from large wallets. The Long/Short ratio ~1.48 still leans towards LONG, however, the number of whales opening SHORT positions has increased, indicating that risk hedging activities are being implemented.

The 24-hour trading volume reached 124.5 million USD, large enough to support strong two-way volatility. If the price cannot hold the range of 0.30–0.32 USD, the pressure to exit short positions may push BULLA towards lower support areas, initially at 0.21 USD, deeper at 0.188 USD – the average cost price area of whales.

In the current context, as 0.34–0.39 USD has not been decisively reclaimed, upward retracements are likely to continue facing selling pressure, with short-term risks still leaning towards the downside.

$BTC
is under strong selling pressure - opening up short-term long opportunities for a technical rebound.

Trade Bias: LONG (short-term technical rebound)
Entry: 76.800 – 77.600 USD
Stop-loss: 74.900 USD
Targets: 80.900 → 83.200 → 85.000 USD

BTC dropped 6.28% to 78,514 USD after a wave of ETF withdrawals totaling 1.3 billion USD in 48 hours, triggering a widespread deleveraging process in the derivatives market. Systemic selling pressure has pushed prices through important EMA levels, leading to a massive liquidation worth 522 million USD — a typical sign of the “deleveraging clean-up” phase at the end of a short-term bear cycle.

Technically, the RSI has fallen to 29.5, indicating a deeply oversold condition as prices approach the structural support level of 76,371 USD. In previous cycles, the combination of RSI <30 and significant liquidations has often accompanied short-term technical rebounds, especially when prices hit the lower Bollinger band and selling momentum begins to weaken.

Institutional cash flow is still distributing (strong net ETF withdrawals), but the hourly net inflow of +15.79 million USD shows that local bottom-fishing buying pressure is emerging around the support area. Market sentiment is at an “Extreme Fear” level (18) — a condition commonly seen near short-term bottoms rather than a trend continuation point.

From a positioning perspective, short whales are clearly dominant with 58,913 BTC, of which 88% are in profit (average entry price 93,528 USD). The excessive “comfort” of the short side, combined with the oversold condition, increases the probability of short-covering if prices hold the 76–77k range. Conversely, long whales are underwater (average entry price ~87,230 USD), further reinforcing the market scenario that requires a rebound to balance.

$SENT is rising strongly, outperforming the market — the short-term adjustment risk is gradually taking shape.
Trade Bias: SHORT (short-term – correction after a hot increase)
Entry: 0.0398 – 0.0410 USD
Stop-loss: 0.0435 USD
Targets: 0.0368 → 0.0347 → 0.0329 USD

SENT is currently accumulating around 0.0396 USD after surging +43% in the week, outperforming over 86% of other assets amid macroeconomic pressures and significant ETF capital outflows. The rapid increase has made SENT a speculative focal point, but it has also pushed the price into a vulnerable state before any short-term profit-taking.

Technically, the price is moving sideways near the 25 EMA and is continuously being rejected around the resistance zone of 0.0406 USD. The RSI around the 50 mark indicates that momentum has shifted from explosive to neutral, while the MACD is beginning to cool down — a familiar sign of the distribution phase following a parabolic increase, rather than continuing a strong trend.

From a cash flow perspective, despite recording a net capital flow of about 55,316 USD per hour, this accumulation level is only moderate and does not correspond to the recent price increase margin. The large holding ratio at 0.20 indicates that SENT is being traded significantly more for short-term speculative purposes rather than sustainable long-term accumulation.

Notably, the behavior of whales is of interest. The short selling volume of whales has increased to about 165 million SENT, outperforming the long buying volume, indicating that smart money is actively defending and betting on a corrective move. Long whales still maintain their entry price around 0.0347 USD, but the distance from the current price to this zone is large enough to trigger selling pressure if the trend reverses.

$PAXG
adjusting deeply according to the risk-averse mentality.

Trade Bias: LONG (short term)
Entry: 4.880 – 4.960 USD
Stop-loss: 4.760 USD
Targets: 5.050 → 5.180 → 5.320 USD

PAXG is currently trading around 4.942 USD after a decrease of −4.11% during the session, influenced by a wave of profit-taking from institutions as risk-averse sentiment spreads. The price has broken through the entire EMA 7/25/99, confirming a short-term correction phase; however, the medium-term trend remains positive with a monthly increase of +13.78%.

Regarding momentum, the RSI around 39.9 indicates that the market has approached an oversold state but has not yet fallen into panic. The MACD remains negative (−55.38), but the histogram is narrowing, reflecting that selling pressure is gradually weakening rather than accelerating. This is often a condition for short technical rebounds when sellers no longer have enough strength to push prices lower.

The spot capital flow recorded a net withdrawal of 651 thousand USD, accompanied by Fear & Greed at a level of 26 — indicating the defensive sentiment of institutions. However, this scale of capital withdrawal is still relatively small compared to overall liquidity, implying a rebalancing process rather than a massive exit of capital.

In the derivatives market, the picture leans towards the possibility of a short-term rebound. The Long/Short ratio is only at 0.62 with the number of short-selling whales being 2.5 times that of long-buying whales. This reflects that bearish sentiment has become crowded. When the majority of the market leans to one side, the effectiveness of selling pressure often diminishes, especially when prices have corrected significantly.

Notably, 70% of whale long positions are at a loss with an average cost around 4.605 USD, while short whales control about 11.330 PAXG — indicating that the downward structure still prevails. However

$PAXG
sold based on the risk-averse psychological tendency - opening up a short-term technical recovery

Trade Bias: LONG (short-term, technical recovery)
Entry: 4.880 – 4.950 USD
Stop-loss: below 4.820 USD
Targets: 5.020 → 5.120 → 5.260 USD

PAXG is currently trading around 4.962 USD after a decrease of 4.68%, lying below EMA 25 (5.027 USD) and EMA 99 (5.173 USD). The medium-term structure still leans towards correction, but the range of 4.820–4.900 USD is playing a crucial technical support role, where buying pressure has started to appear.

Regarding indicators, RSI 40.37 shows that the downward momentum is weakening, not yet falling into a state of panic. MACD remains negative, but the histogram has narrowed, reflecting that selling momentum is slowing down — a signal often seen before stable phases and short-term rebounds on defensive assets like gold.

Short-term capital flows remain cautious with a net withdrawal of 411 thousand USD, influenced by institutions pulling capital from gold ETFs. However, a notable point is that capital commitment in derivatives remains very high: 24h volume reached 602.7 million USD and OI 196 million USD, indicating that large money has not left the market but is repositioning.

The key factor for the short-term long scenario lies in the position structure. The L/S ratio has sharply decreased to 0.56, while 73% of short positions are losing with an average entry price of 4.885 USD. This creates a clear “reverse pressure” zone: as long as PAXG holds above 4.880–4.900 USD and bounces slightly, a local short squeeze could completely occur.

On the contrary, 57% of long positions are still profitable with an entry price low around 4.612 USD, indicating that long-term buyers have not broken the structure and are still patient enough to hold positions through the volatility phase.

$SYN
is in a phase of increase due to speculation — and this is often a high-risk area for a strong correction

Trade Bias: SHORT (short-medium term, catching the cooling down)
Shorting area: 0.110 – 0.123 USD
Stop-loss: above 0.13 USD
Targets: 0.095 → 0.086 → 0.075 USD

SYN has increased by 72.4% to 0.107 USD, closely following a parabolic structure with the price being very far from the 99-day EMA at 0.069 USD. The Volume/MCap ratio reached 3.24, reflecting a very high level of speculation — a sign often appearing at the end of a short-term bullish wave, when buying pressure mainly comes from retail FOMO rather than sustainable accumulation.

Technically, the RSI at 63.8 still shows strong momentum, but the MACD is starting to weaken and turn negative, signaling a slowdown as the price approaches the key resistance area of 0.123 USD. This is an area where a "stall zone" is likely to occur — where the price can still rise but the probability of a reversal increases rapidly.

The capital flow is sending a clear warning signal. Major investors have withdrawn a net of 2.2 million USD, indicating intentional distribution behavior while the retail market pushes the price up. This is a familiar pattern: institutions sell into strength, while the narrative remains very appealing on the surface.

In the derivatives market, the psychological structure has reversed quickly. The Long/Short ratio increased from 0.62 to 1.04, reflecting that the crowd is beginning to lean heavily towards long quite late. Currently, 95% of long positions are profitable with entry prices around 0.095 USD — an important psychological support area. However, this very fact increases the risk: when the price cannot surpass 0.123 USD, the pressure to take profits from profitable positions will be very large.

SENT is currently in a state of overheating — but this very condition increases the risk of short to medium-term adjustments.

Trade Bias: SHORT (short to medium-term, timing the adjustment)
Shorting Zone: 0.0415 – 0.0430 USD
Stop-loss: above 0.0455 USD
Targets: 0.0361 → 0.0338 → 0.0312 USD

SENT has increased by 51.42% this week, currently trading around 0.0407 USD, maintaining above all key EMAs and EMA 99 at 0.0325 USD. Technical momentum remains positive with an RSI of 60.16 and a positive MACD, indicating that the uptrend has not been broken. However, this is also a phase where momentum begins to saturate, no longer in the “early breakout” zone but gradually shifting towards a diminishing probability of profit/risk.

From a cash flow perspective, while recording a net inflow of 41,340 USD from whales, it is important to note that this buying pressure occurs alongside profit-taking from retail investors and is strongly driven by event factors (Binance competition 60.7 million SENT + Flexible Earn). As these liquidity stimulus programs peak in attention, natural demand risks a rapid decline.

Derivatives are sending early warning signals. The Long/Short ratio has recovered to 1.12, reflecting bullish sentiment returning rather late after a strong surge. Currently, 61% of long positions are profitable, while 85% of short positions are at a loss — a structure often seen near short-term peaks, where the market is prone to a “reverse long squeeze” when prices lack the momentum to push higher.

Technically, 0.0431 USD is a strong resistance level, where prices begin to lose their upward range.

$SUI
is under strong selling pressure and still within a short-term bearish structure — but the extremely oversold state along with the 'sell-the-event' context around the unlock token is opening up an opportunity for a controlled technical rebound.

Trade Bias: LONG (technical rebound, short-term)
Entry: $1.22 – $1.26
Stop-loss: $1.15
Targets: $1.35 → $1.42 → $1.50

SUI is currently trading around $1.256, down about 15% for the week, sitting below the 99-day EMA ($1.35) and recording net outflows. The overall structure remains bearish, however, short-term indicators are showing a clear oversold condition: RSI(6) = 26.58 and the price has crossed below the lower Bollinger band, which is often a condition for technical rebounds to occur when panic selling subsides.

The greatest pressure in the short term comes from the unlocking of 53.9 million SUI on February 1, which is causing the market to trend towards selling before the event. However, history shows that with known unlock events, prices often bottom out before or just around the unlock time, followed by a technical rebound when the risk has been 'priced in'.

From a cash flow perspective, the current picture remains negative but carries a 'final sell-off' characteristic. Net outflows are $802,000 per hour, of which $768,000 comes from large sell orders, reflecting the proactive withdrawal of institutions. However, this also means that the actively sold supply is concentrated and may soon run low, creating conditions for a rebound when selling pressure decreases.

Derivatives show a notable divergence. The Long/Short ratio remains low at 0.83, with whale shorts holding 41.6 million SUI, significantly higher than the 33.6 million SUI held by whale longs. Whale shorts are realizing significant profits from the $1.519 area.

$PAXG
is being sold off in line with the market's gold correction rhythm — but the current structure is beginning to converge on conditions for a short-term technical rebound as the oversold state becomes apparent.

Trade Bias: LONG (short-term technical rebound)
Entry: $4.850 – $4.900
Stop-loss: $4.730
Targets: $5.026 → $5.120 → $5.260

PAXG is currently trading around $4.932, down −4.99%, wiping out all gains from last week after gold and silver prices both adjusted. Technically, the price has broken below the entire EMA 7/25/99, reflecting a consensus sell-off, but it also pushed the RSI down to 36 — a zone that often sees strong technical rebounds for defensive assets like gold.

The key point lies at the support zone of $4.815. This is a confluence area between structural support and a liquidity zone where buyers previously managed to protect successfully. The MACD indicator at −102.7 confirms that bearish momentum still dominates, but the histogram has started to narrow, indicating that selling pressure is gradually weakening after the initial panic.

From a cash flow perspective, the picture remains negative but is more about “risk reduction” rather than a complete flight. The net outflow of capital reached $1.83 million, of which $1.47 million came from large orders, indicating that institutions are temporarily standing aside rather than continuing to chase sales at low prices. This often sets the stage for technical rebounds when active selling runs out.

Derivatives also show a notable divergence. The number of short-selling whales increased by 53% to 228 positions, concentrated around the $4.909 area, while the Long/Short ratio plummeted from 1.66 to 0.73.

$ADA
is sliding deep into the structural support zone — and the technical rebound scenario from the oversold state is gradually becoming clear, even though the derivatives context remains very bearish.

Trade Bias: LONG (short-term, technical rebound)
Entry: $0.315 – $0.325
Stop-loss: $0.305
Targets: $0.348 → $0.365 → $0.378

ADA is currently trading around $0.321, down −10.46% for the week and returning to test the important support zone of $0.32. Technically, the RSI has fallen into the oversold region, and according to ADA's historical statistics, this signal has a short-term reversal probability of up to ~80%, typically occurring in the later stages of a strong sell-off.

A notable point is in the spot capital flow: recording +1.61 million USD in net capital flow per hour, of which the buying volume from large investors (~1.2 million USD) is three times the selling pressure from market makers at the low price zone. This indicates that selective accumulation is taking place, although the overall market sentiment remains cautious. With a market capitalization of 11.55 billion USD and a 24h liquidity of 717 million USD, ADA still maintains localized buying demand at support.

In the derivatives market, the picture is completely opposite. The Long/Short ratio collapsed from 1.39 to 0.68 in just 24 hours, reflecting a rapid shift to bearish sentiment among top traders. 100% of Top Play signals are sell orders, and the whale group short is holding 408 positions with an average entry price of $0.378, currently in a profitable state — turning the $0.37–0.38 area into extremely strong resistance during rebounds.

A noteworthy fundamental factor is the catalyst USDC. Charles Hoskinson has confirmed the integration of USDCX from Circle into the ADA ecosystem.

FLOW is bouncing from the support zone after a strong sell-off — and the short-term technical rebound scenario is being activated.

Trade Bias: LONG (short-term)
Entry: $0.0580 – $0.0605
Stop-loss: $0.0555
Targets: $0.0665 → $0.0710 → $0.0750

FLOW is currently trading around $0.0599 after a recovery of +9.3%, ending a week of deep declines. Selling pressure has clearly weakened as large sell volumes are no longer being recorded, while hourly net inflows reached +1.17 million USD, indicating strategic accumulation activity at the short-term bottom.

Technically, the overall structure remains sideways – recovering, but negative signals have eased. RSI around 50 reflects a balanced state after the previous oversold phase, while weak MACD indicates that the market has not entered a strong trend — consistent with the technical rebound scenario within a range rather than a complete reversal. A significant positive is in the supply: 99.7% of tokens have unlocked, removing scheduled inflation pressure and allowing short-term demand to have a clearer impact on price.

In derivatives, the short side still dominates with L/S ~0.53, holding a profit of ~28% from the high price range. This creates resistance near $0.071 while also opening the possibility of forcing short closures if the price approaches this area. Conversely, 73% of long positions are losing around $0.0709, so any bounce to the $0.066–0.071 range may encounter selling pressure from trapped positions.
$FLOW

SENT is accumulating resistance after a heated upward surge — and the risk of a correction is gradually overshadowing the rally.

Trade Bias: SHORT
Entry: $0.0405– $0.041
Stop-loss: $0.0431
Targets: $0.0380 → $0.0352 → $0.032

SENT is currently trading around $0.04006 after a strong rally of ~10%/day, still holding above EMA 99 (0.0316) but starting to stagnate below EMA 25 (0.0360). The short-term structure indicates that the upward momentum is cooling off: RSI(6) ~36.7 has fallen out of the excitement zone, while the MACD histogram remains bearish, reflecting weakened buying pressure even though the price has not broken the structure.

In terms of cash flow, net capital outflow shows that retail investors are taking profits at high levels. At the same time, the long/short ratio has decreased to 1.03 as whales hedge their risks by shorting ~5 million SENT, creating clear pressure on the whale support level of $0.0312. Notably, the average short entry price of ~0.0342 now acts as dynamic resistance, making any retracement susceptible to being sold off.

Speculative stimulation from the Binance competition (60.7 million SENT) has pushed the volume/capital ratio up to 2.37, often a signal of “noise” before correction phases when speculative demand fades away. Only 36% of long positions are profitable, increasing the risk of a sell-off if $0.0312 is breached.

DASH is being heavily pressured towards the strong support zone — and the oversold condition is opening up a short-term technical rebound opportunity.

Trade Bias: LONG (short-term, technical rebound)
Entry: $49.8 – $51.0
Stop-loss: $48.2
Targets: $55.4 → $60.0 → $64.8

DASH is currently trading around $50.7 after a drop of −7.8% on the day and −25.4% on the week, breaking through the entire EMA 7/25/99 and nearing the lower Bollinger band at $49.84. The trend structure remains clearly bearish, with MACD at −1.38 confirming that bearish momentum still dominates. However, RSI at 24.75 indicates a deep oversold condition — typically only seen in the final stages of a strong sell-off.

Smart money is still leaning bearish as whale shorts increase (133 → 148) and net capital outflow is −$2.01 million, but the noteworthy point is that selling pressure is concentrating above, not right at the current support zone. The large volume of sales while the price approaches the bottom of the Bollinger band shows signs that selling pressure is starting to wane — a necessary condition for a technical rebound.

On the derivatives side, there are 562 short orders below $64.80. Although this target is still far off, as long as the price holds at $49.8–50.0 and bounces back above $55.4, the market could witness a short squeeze, pulling prices back to $60 and further to $64.8 — the zone where whales previously shorted.
$DASH

PAXG is sliding below the medium-term support structure — and smart money is beginning to tilt clearly towards defense.

Trade Bias: SHORT (medium-term)
Entry: $5.080 – $5.200 (weakened bounce)
Stop-loss: $5.360
Targets: $4.950 → $4.720 → $4.480

PAXG is currently trading around $5.028 after a decline of −4.93%, sitting below all significant EMAs (7/25) and the middle Bollinger band at $5.235. The technical structure indicates a bearish trend has formed: RSI at 36.2 approaches the oversold zone but is not deep enough to trigger a sustainable bounce, while the MACD continues to expand in a bearish direction (−89.3), confirming that the downward pressure is more prolonged than a short-term correction.

The noteworthy point lies in the structural reversal of smart money. Large speculators have significantly cut their long positions (−31.5%) while increasing shorts (+22.9%), pulling the L/S ratio from 1.66 down to nearly balance at 1.045 in just 12 hours. This reflects that institutional players are no longer willing to bet on an upward trend, but are actively defending and building a medium-term bearish scenario.

Although a net inflow of +1.41 million USD was recorded, the flow picture is mixed: large investors bought a net of 3.59 million USD while retail selling reached 45.6 million USD. This is a selective accumulation type, often appearing in distribution phases or preparing for strong volatility, rather than a clear reversal signal.

On-chain, the movement of 56 million PAXG between Paxos and anonymous wallets indicates that custodial rebalancing activity is occurring, especially when combined with the positioning changes of large speculators.

RIVER is currently being heavily sold down to the Bollinger bottom and the selling pressure has reached an extreme state.

Trade Bias: LONG (short-term, technical rebound)
Entry: $33.8 – $35.0
Stop-loss: $32.9
Targets: $37.5 → $40.8 → $44.0

RIVER is currently trading around $34.4 after a deep drop of −19.2% from the $47.4 range, breaking through all the EMA 7/25/99 lines and approaching the lower Bollinger band at $34.2. The trend structure still clearly leans bearish, however, the RSI hitting level 6 reflects an extremely oversold state – typically only appearing at the end of a strong selling phase.

MACD at −3.12 indicates that the bearish momentum still prevails, but the range of decline is gradually narrowing, opening up the possibility for an early divergence to form. Notably, the buying volume from the group of traders with zero fees shows that buyers have almost completely withdrawn – a state often accompanied by short technical rebounds due to the lack of new selling pressure.

On the whale side, the medium-term picture remains negative but supports a short-term rebound scenario. The number of long whales has decreased from 139 to 125, along with a net sell of 21.4 million USD, reflecting profit-taking and a defensive stance rather than accumulation. Conversely, short whales have also actively reduced their positions (121 → 88), pushing the L/S ratio up to 1.36 – mainly due to shorts being closed, not because longs have become stronger.

This creates a state of "phase discrepancy": the larger trend remains bearish, but short-term selling pressure is weakening while the price is right at a solid technical support area. As long as the $33.0–34.0 range is maintained, RIVER may experience a technical rebound towards $37–41, where selling pressure from trapped positions is likely to return strongly.

$RIVER

Trade Bias: LONG
Entry: $37.8 – $39.2
Stop-loss: $36.7
Targets: $41.5 → $44.8 → $48.5

RIVER is trading around $38.5 after a strong drop of -25.4%, sitting below all EMA 7/25/99 and closely following the lower Bollinger band (~$38.8), indicating that the main trend is still bearish. However, RSI(6) ~26.6 and RSI(12) ~31.5 reflect a deeply oversold condition, while MACD -2.47 is starting to weaken the bearish momentum — often an early signal for a short-term technical bounce.

A notable point is the shift in smart money flow. Whales increased their long positions by 23%, while reducing shorts by 21%, causing the L/S ratio to sharply reverse to 1.20 in just 8 hours. This is a sign of deliberate accumulation, in contrast to the general market's panic selling.

Most short positions were opened around $52.63, currently facing a loss of about 15.6%. If the price recovers the $41–45 range, defensive short covering pressure may emerge, creating conditions for a quick bounce back to the liquidity areas above. As long as $37 is held, the risk of further deep declines is low, while the risk/reward ratio is leaning towards a bounce up towards $44–48.
$RIVER

RIVER is in a strong sell-off phase – a typical condition for a technical short-term bounce, but not a trend reversal.

Trade Bias: Short-term LONG (technical bounce)
Preferred Entry: 36.8 – 38.5 USD
Stop-loss: 35.9 USD
Targets: 40.4 → 43.2 → 45.1 USD

Price & Momentum Context
RIVER plummeted 23.47% down to 37.99 USD, breaking through the lower Bollinger band in a highly speculative liquidity environment. This is a rapid deceleration type, often associated with liquidation and slippage rather than intentional distribution. The 36.57 USD zone currently acts as local support; holding this area will trigger the technical bounce scenario.

Oversold Signal
RSI 6 = 23.53 reflects an extreme oversold state – history shows that these levels rarely last without a bounce back. MACD (-2.18) still confirms the dominant bearish trend, so expectations are only for a technical bounce, not a reversal.

Volume & Liquidity
Liquidity at 9.83 million USD compared to the small market cap shows high speculative levels, increasing the probability of strong fluctuations in both directions. This supports a quick bounce but also requires tight risk management.

Whale Flow & Positions
Open positions decreased from 897 → 779, reflecting the process of deleveraging/position washing. The L/S ratio increased to 1.158 as shorts closed faster than longs, creating passive upward pressure on the price. However, 88% of long positions are at a loss (average entry price 44.84 USD) and will become selling supply when the price bounces, especially near 45.12 USD.

DOGE is touching the exhaustion sell zone — the risk of a deep drop is narrowing, short-term technical bounce opportunities are beginning to open up.

Trade Bias: LONG (short-term, technical bounce)
Entry: $0.112 – $0.115
Stop-loss: $0.108
Targets: $0.118 → $0.123 → $0.129

DOGE is currently trading around $0.114, down 6.55% and directly testing the support zone at $0.112 (Bollinger lower band). The rapid and steep decline has pushed the market into a clearly unbalanced state, as selling pressure is mainly liquidation and panic rather than organized distribution.

Technically, RSI ~20.6 shows an extreme oversold state, rarely maintained for long without a corrective bounce. The price is below the entire EMA cluster, confirming that the short-term trend is still bearish, but this increases the probability of a dead-cat bounce towards nearby resistance zones.

In derivatives, sellers are completely dominating: the L/S ratio has fallen to 0.21, whale short volume has increased by 55%, with 98% of short positions being profitable around $0.128. When the market leans too heavily to one side, as long as the price holds support and bounces slightly, short covering can occur quickly, creating a sudden pullback.

Current cash flow remains negative (-3.06 million USD/hour), reflecting the system's capital withdrawal process. However, this is often the final stage of a short-term sell-off. Binance's launch of DOGE reward programs helps maintain liquidity and may support sentiment during technical bounces.

From a structural perspective, $0.112 is the survival mark. Holding this area, DOGE has a chance to bounce back to $0.118–$0.123, further to the $0.128–$0.130 area where a dense concentration of profitable short positions exists. Conversely, losing $0.108 will open up a deeper capitulation scenario.
$DOGE

PAXG is maintaining a long-term bullish structure — but the safe-haven enthusiasm shows signs of being excessive, and medium-to-long-term adjustment risks are opening up.

Trade Bias: SHORT (long-term, distribution setup)
Entry: $5,500 – $5,650 (watching for pullbacks)
Or breakdown: Below $5,290 (EMA 99)
Stop-loss: $5,850
Targets: $5,150 → $4,900 → $4,600

PAXG is currently trading around $5,444, up +23.4% for the month, directly benefiting from weak U.S. unemployment data and the trend of seeking safe-haven assets. However, this prolonged “safe-haven” context is causing prices to enter a high valuation zone compared to actual momentum.

Technically, prices remain above EMA 99 at $5,291, but RSI ~50 indicates that momentum has significantly cooled off after a strong uptrend. MACD has started to cross down, often an early signal for medium-term corrections, especially when it appears after a steep and prolonged uptrend.

From a cash flow perspective, institutions have net withdrawn $6.53 million, reflecting tactical profit-taking as prices remain elevated. Although long-term holders are still making significant profits (average cost price ~$4,599), this group also has the incentive to sell if the market shows clear signs of weakness.

On derivatives, the L/S ratio has rebounded to 1.31 while OI has decreased, indicating that dip-buying pressure still exists but is not accompanied by strong new capital. This often leads to weak recoveries, easily sold back when prices approach resistance zones.