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⭐ Co-Founder DCCK
⭐ Alpha Hunter
⭐ Narrative Trader
⭐ BTC Maxi
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Update the overall view and plan for the market in the coming time
View will be for medium and long term. Plan will have a short-term plan.
🔸 Views:
🔸 1/ Currently we are still in the bull market and in the past 2 weeks the market has adjusted => cooled down.
This cooling down is a good sign for the market in general because the market has been increasing hotly for 6 consecutive months. If it continues to increase as hotly as it did 6 months ago, the game will be too easy, leading to the bull run story of the whole cycle possibly ending sooner. This cooling down is simply for the market as well as whale/OG/MM to collect back what people have pumped out to you over the past time and create a price base for more sustainable growth.
🔸 Views:
🔸 1/ Currently we are still in the bull market and in the past 2 weeks the market has adjusted => cooled down.
This cooling down is a good sign for the market in general because the market has been increasing hotly for 6 consecutive months. If it continues to increase as hotly as it did 6 months ago, the game will be too easy, leading to the bull run story of the whole cycle possibly ending sooner. This cooling down is simply for the market as well as whale/OG/MM to collect back what people have pumped out to you over the past time and create a price base for more sustainable growth.
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About the market in November
Elections are approaching. Q4. End of the year. Christmas. New Year???
Chaos and uncertainty are the two main things happening in the current market.
There are many reasons to explain, especially the reason of elections.
Price movements in the election years of 2020 and 2016 for $BTC and SPX are similar. Chaos.
The market usually adjusts 5-6 days before the election.
Chaos = opportunity.
High probability, after the election, the market will continue to rise higher. Of course, not 100%.
$BTC, I believe there is a 90% chance the price will be higher than the current level from now until the end of the month. It can be said that betting on $BTC has proven to be the best RR bet of this cycle. It will remain so until the end of the cycle.
$ETH. It depends. I predict $ETHBTC will create a bottom this month, fluctuate in December, and start to reverse in the new year. Will $ETH outperform $SOL? No. It's good enough that it increases. Both will rise together, strongly.
With technology coins. Each segment will be pushed in turn. I think choosing 1-2 narratives to filter out the strongest ones is sufficient. I still have faith in technology in this cycle. I choose AI/Depin Narrative and DeFi (especially new DeFi projects).
With memecoins. Memecoins are currently continuing to diversify into a new segment, AI memecoins. In this segment, I think only $GOAT is worth holding long-term. The rest are all returning to dust. AI meme tokens will need time to prove themselves before rising strongly again. I still bet most on animal memecoins. The animal kingdom will still prevail.
For lazy readers: HIGHER, HIGHER, HIGHER
Elections are approaching. Q4. End of the year. Christmas. New Year???
Chaos and uncertainty are the two main things happening in the current market.
There are many reasons to explain, especially the reason of elections.
Price movements in the election years of 2020 and 2016 for $BTC and SPX are similar. Chaos.
The market usually adjusts 5-6 days before the election.
Chaos = opportunity.
High probability, after the election, the market will continue to rise higher. Of course, not 100%.
$BTC, I believe there is a 90% chance the price will be higher than the current level from now until the end of the month. It can be said that betting on $BTC has proven to be the best RR bet of this cycle. It will remain so until the end of the cycle.
$ETH. It depends. I predict $ETHBTC will create a bottom this month, fluctuate in December, and start to reverse in the new year. Will $ETH outperform $SOL? No. It's good enough that it increases. Both will rise together, strongly.
With technology coins. Each segment will be pushed in turn. I think choosing 1-2 narratives to filter out the strongest ones is sufficient. I still have faith in technology in this cycle. I choose AI/Depin Narrative and DeFi (especially new DeFi projects).
With memecoins. Memecoins are currently continuing to diversify into a new segment, AI memecoins. In this segment, I think only $GOAT is worth holding long-term. The rest are all returning to dust. AI meme tokens will need time to prove themselves before rising strongly again. I still bet most on animal memecoins. The animal kingdom will still prevail.
For lazy readers: HIGHER, HIGHER, HIGHER
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Let's go Bitcoin!
This article summarizes Arthur Hayes' research
1/ The real estate bubble is a government tool
The US government uses GSE to support the real estate market, similar to how China uses state-owned banks to provide cheap loans to real estate companies
China is suppressing deposit interest rates to finance state real estate enterprises => inadvertently promoting the development of the real estate bubble
2/ The 'Three Red Lines' policy
Xi Jinping's policy restricts debt for real estate companies, causing the real estate sector in this country to collapse
China has a 'buying a house on credit' mechanism, where citizens must pay before the apartment is completed => companies are easily cut off from working capital
Officials in China are also reluctant to implement lending policies due to fears of being investigated for corruption
3/ Economic rescue and $BTC
China's current economic stimulus measures are not enough to boost the economy. China will need stronger QE to inject money into the banking system
Currently, China is preparing for QE, such as the PBOC announcing the start of government bond purchases and loosening regulations on banks
QE will lead to inflation. The Chinese people will turn to gold and Bitcoin to protect their assets
4/ Prediction about Bitcoin
It will skyrocket when China's QE begins to take effect. He compares this price increase cycle to 2015 when the yuan was heavily devalued
The P2P market in China is very active, facilitating the flow of money into Bitcoin
The Chinese government is predicted to not allow citizens to invest in Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong
TLDR: $BTC HIGHER
This article summarizes Arthur Hayes' research
1/ The real estate bubble is a government tool
The US government uses GSE to support the real estate market, similar to how China uses state-owned banks to provide cheap loans to real estate companies
China is suppressing deposit interest rates to finance state real estate enterprises => inadvertently promoting the development of the real estate bubble
2/ The 'Three Red Lines' policy
Xi Jinping's policy restricts debt for real estate companies, causing the real estate sector in this country to collapse
China has a 'buying a house on credit' mechanism, where citizens must pay before the apartment is completed => companies are easily cut off from working capital
Officials in China are also reluctant to implement lending policies due to fears of being investigated for corruption
3/ Economic rescue and $BTC
China's current economic stimulus measures are not enough to boost the economy. China will need stronger QE to inject money into the banking system
Currently, China is preparing for QE, such as the PBOC announcing the start of government bond purchases and loosening regulations on banks
QE will lead to inflation. The Chinese people will turn to gold and Bitcoin to protect their assets
4/ Prediction about Bitcoin
It will skyrocket when China's QE begins to take effect. He compares this price increase cycle to 2015 when the yuan was heavily devalued
The P2P market in China is very active, facilitating the flow of money into Bitcoin
The Chinese government is predicted to not allow citizens to invest in Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong
TLDR: $BTC HIGHER
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List of top DeFi projects on $SOL
Personally, I think $SOL is not only strong in memes but also has good infrastructure and DeFi.
High speed, cheap gas, fast error handling for a smoother experience. Many people I know trade DEX on their phones on $ETH switched to $SOL and think that the design and experience are much better.
DeFi projects I like
1/ $RAY - Doing DEX, has both launchpad and liquidity provision
2/ $JUP - DEX Aggregator, DEX Perp, faster trading, better experience than $RAY. It seems like there is still 1 week left for $JUP staking snapshot so the price is increasing well. Personally, I am also short-term long on this one
3/ $KMNO - Lending & Borrowing. Take advantage of $SOL staking yield to lend, provide liquidity for DEXs. Version 2.0 has been released. Tokens can be staked to receive additional passive rewards.
4/ $DRIFT - DEX Perp. The product was made in 2021 but the token was just released this year =)))) The max you can get is x10 so don't use it. Tokens also play stake to receive rewards.
5/ $JTO - LSD on $SOL. Just like $LDO on $ETH.
6/ $ONDO - this RWA product covers many chains, but it has $USDY on Solana, a stablecoin backed by T-Bill, allowing users to enjoy 5.2% APY
Personally, I find it harder to spread low-cap meme money than to focus on a few top memes of the $SOL system and add favorite tech coins
Personally, I think $SOL is not only strong in memes but also has good infrastructure and DeFi.
High speed, cheap gas, fast error handling for a smoother experience. Many people I know trade DEX on their phones on $ETH switched to $SOL and think that the design and experience are much better.
DeFi projects I like
1/ $RAY - Doing DEX, has both launchpad and liquidity provision
2/ $JUP - DEX Aggregator, DEX Perp, faster trading, better experience than $RAY. It seems like there is still 1 week left for $JUP staking snapshot so the price is increasing well. Personally, I am also short-term long on this one
3/ $KMNO - Lending & Borrowing. Take advantage of $SOL staking yield to lend, provide liquidity for DEXs. Version 2.0 has been released. Tokens can be staked to receive additional passive rewards.
4/ $DRIFT - DEX Perp. The product was made in 2021 but the token was just released this year =)))) The max you can get is x10 so don't use it. Tokens also play stake to receive rewards.
5/ $JTO - LSD on $SOL. Just like $LDO on $ETH.
6/ $ONDO - this RWA product covers many chains, but it has $USDY on Solana, a stablecoin backed by T-Bill, allowing users to enjoy 5.2% APY
Personally, I find it harder to spread low-cap meme money than to focus on a few top memes of the $SOL system and add favorite tech coins
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What % of your total portfolio do you hold in $BTC?
0%
60%
1-25%
11%
25-50%
8%
50-100%
21%
201 votes • Voting closed
gm
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71k is the level that determines the change in market structure
We have broken the 6-month sideway trendline. Now I need $BTC to hold above here, close the weekly candle above here.
Do we need to fomo? $BTC will run and we will not have any more dips? I don't know =))) Don't make me a fortune teller =)))))
In the most ideal case, from now until the end of October, we have $BTC above $71k
$71k is the 3D frame resistance. Another confirmation of the most certain change in structure. $BTC has tried to break this resistance 3 times but failed. Exactly 71k5.
The $71k mark is also the 1.618 fibo mark in Bitcoin's most recent downtrend.
$71k will be a confirmation of a strong bullish structure for $BTC for the coming months or a sign of a short-term reversal.
It wouldn't be surprising if $BTC hits $71k and falls. That's not bad.
It would be the next good pause in the market.
We have broken the 6-month sideway trendline. Now I need $BTC to hold above here, close the weekly candle above here.
Do we need to fomo? $BTC will run and we will not have any more dips? I don't know =))) Don't make me a fortune teller =)))))
In the most ideal case, from now until the end of October, we have $BTC above $71k
$71k is the 3D frame resistance. Another confirmation of the most certain change in structure. $BTC has tried to break this resistance 3 times but failed. Exactly 71k5.
The $71k mark is also the 1.618 fibo mark in Bitcoin's most recent downtrend.
$71k will be a confirmation of a strong bullish structure for $BTC for the coming months or a sign of a short-term reversal.
It wouldn't be surprising if $BTC hits $71k and falls. That's not bad.
It would be the next good pause in the market.
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There will be an additional 54B$ T-Bill issued on 08/27
Bullish signal for next week.
This issuance is the largest since 11/2023.
Bullish signal for next week.
This issuance is the largest since 11/2023.
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Central banks are hoarding gold at the fastest rate in history
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$CPOOL as Layer 2 in the Optimism Ecosystem
L2 x RWA???
L2 x RWA???
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Insider trading $BRETT
Before $BRETT was announced to be listed on Binance Futu, a $BRETT holder had pre-deposited, so Bybit dumped it. This wallet had collected $BRETT since the end of February with 200$ and sold it continuously over the past few months, earning tens of thousands of times profit.
Before $BRETT was announced to be listed on Binance Futu, a $BRETT holder had pre-deposited, so Bybit dumped it. This wallet had collected $BRETT since the end of February with 200$ and sold it continuously over the past few months, earning tens of thousands of times profit.
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Remember to connect your wallet on Grass before August 23 to receive airdrop
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Mining company BitFuFu announces Q2/2024 financial report
The company's average $BTC mining cost in Q2 this year was $51,887, up from $19,344 in the same period last year. The company's total capacity increased by 62.5% to 24.7ETH/s.
Now that $BTC has dropped to 51k$ , many miners will disappear =)))))
The company's average $BTC mining cost in Q2 this year was $51,887, up from $19,344 in the same period last year. The company's total capacity increased by 62.5% to 24.7ETH/s.
Now that $BTC has dropped to 51k$ , many miners will disappear =)))))
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Stablecoin Inflows $SOL Still Increasing Steadily
$600M in the Last 20 Days and Price Still Sideways?
$600M in the Last 20 Days and Price Still Sideways?