CycleScavenger

Is it still that Sun-ge? Every so often he always manages to stir something up. This snack of gossip—at this point I don’t even have the mood to do deals anymore.
In short, the waters in the entertainment industry are still too deep. There’s no way that from the time you debut you’re not dealing with all kinds of unspoken rules. People who can make it out of that big dye vat and rise to the top are bound to be stained by it to some extent. Even Sun-ge dares to “cut” (take action), and I really don’t understand what the gold value is of these years of Sun-ge stepping back and forth over the red lines between the US and China—yet still hopping around alive and well!
Also, Sun-ge has never been a generous sort. If he doesn’t cut back, wouldn’t Sun Xue be at risk of losing everything at the finish line? It has to be cut back

When I start making money, don’t doubt it—it’s a bull market. When I keep making money one after another, it means the bull market has arrived.
When I start losing money, it’s a bear market. When I keep losing money consecutively, it’s a bear market…
Think carefully: my trading logic is built on a bull market foundation. In bear markets, I also rarely go short—so it seems I might even be able to serve as a kind of indicator.
If the market trend continues, I recently discovered that there should be a big move coming for aster. It’s just that since the market was recently pulled up in the last couple of days, the focus now should mainly be on consolidation to digest the move. After this consolidation is done, you can then confirm from the right side whether the bull market is truly here.
In simple terms, it’s about how this consolidation plays out.
As long as it doesn’t fall further, and it doesn’t make new lows, then a technical reversal has effectively formed.
You can buy on the pullback.
If it does print new lows, you should still open long positions with a light position size, or gradually accumulate spot—months ago I already said it: a 60000w large BTC, and 1800 ETH, the spot value for money is very high. Don’t be afraid of the drop—there isn’t much room left below.
$ASTER

79100 yuan liquidated the BTC long position. No trades today; we’ll wait and see after the US stock market closes.
There’s no bull market, and it’s not just up and never down—just don’t try to take the short side of this move.
$BTC

I recently saw some influencers come out again, claiming they can make endless profits. From some comments, it’s obvious that there are really so many fools in the public square that the scammers can’t be stopped—one group after another. At first, I thought this would be a bad thing for genuine creators who actually put out quality content.
But then, a sudden twist of logic made me think of a question: without these little treasures, wouldn’t it be even harder to make money in the market? And are we supposed to rely on profiting from the hands of insiders, exchanges, or market makers?
Then I suddenly felt indignant, but I wasn’t worried at all whether my statements would “wake up” the sheep and make it harder for money to be made. It won’t. Because sheep are sheep—one batch after another. Those who can be “woken up” aren’t really sheep to begin with.
From this perspective, the existence of these so-called endless-profit influencers actually has its own reasons. For some people, they just need others to lead them—to shape their cognition, their level, and their habits. It means they don’t have the ability to think independently; they need to be guided and are easily influenced by others.
To a certain extent, I’m also easily influenced by others. So recently I cleared out all my crypto-related contacts in my V. How should I put it… for TG or these foreign apps—by nature they’re just a low barrier. If you can’t use them, or don’t want to, that itself is a kind of filtering. So here’s hoping this round of “go for it” works out.
I’m not saying that if you don’t use this you can’t make money, or that if you use it you’ll definitely profit. But I do think there’s probably some overall difference in cognitive levels. Haha, and it’s not really that important. The more you explain these kinds of issues, the more you end up painting them in a worse light, so I’ll stop here.
ps, I’ve been speaking a lot lately—maybe it’s good luck, and I made a bit of money following the market. That doesn’t feel like a good thing. It suggests a sense of smugness is spreading. I need to reflect seriously, and then check once again whether all my positions have stop-loss orders set up…
$PUMP $HYPE

In these past two days, I kept tightening my stop-losses, and it’s really uncomfortable. A few of the coins I had been watching and liking got stopped out—then they went up. If I don’t set a stop-loss, I worry I’ll end up taking a big hit. It’s so hard to bear. The good thing is I didn’t suffer any real losses; I just missed several rounds of opportunities.

The hype grid trading has stopped here. It’s not that I’m not bullish long-term, but the cost-effectiveness has dropped. I’ve already switched to a pump grid. The goal is to get close to the previous high.

Why not just open futures contracts directly? I tried opening them several times—either I couldn’t hold onto the position, or I got stopped out. So I chose grid trading. It looks like the pullback won’t be that large, but when setting the stop-loss in practice, it still isn’t small—because lately the ATR, meaning the volatility range, has increased.
$HYPE $PUMP

Market activity has started to cool down. The bulls probably want to let the bears catch their breath. Analyzing the order book and chart, this recent dip has forced many longs to calm down. Those who haven’t been liquidated, and those whose price action would rebound upward, are also beginning to take profit and wait. Then, combined with weekend market conditions, we may see a mild, non-eventful, irregular range-bound oscillation. After that, it depends on how the market maker chooses. After the consolidation, it could either drop further or surge upward. I’d suggest that if you plan to go long on a pullback, choose relatively stronger coins— not only those that have been strong in the past few days, but those that are also strong from a larger time frame. Because these coins have a higher probability of a continued push higher, while other altcoins are likely just a one-wave move—same old situation.

This needle-insertion seems pretty decent— which one do you think you’ve seen inserted the hardest?
Actually, at times like this, I prefer finding the ones that get inserted the least, and that can be withdrawn quickly. These are what people call the most liquid ones. The ones with a strong sponsor— the coin types in my spot holdings were basically selected through repeated rounds like this. Because in extreme market conditions, the coins that can still hold up are, statistically, the ones you’re more likely to be able to keep for the long term.
Conversely, the harder it gets inserted, the more severely liquidity is drained in an instant. These are exactly the risks you’ll want to avoid in future trades.
The market has no memory. A lot of people have already forgotten the 10.11 512 delisting/cleanup, and so on. But the market does have memory— the ones who remember will stay sufficiently vigilant during explosive rallies and violent selloffs.
This wave probably means another batch of people are going to exit again, and then we’ll start irregular consolidation and repair, until the next bull market arrives— drawing new people in… round after round, all so similar. But the way it feels to me is that the pace is getting faster and faster.
Remember back in 2022 and 2023— when prices surged, it would last for at least a month or so. When the bull market came, at minimum it could keep pumping for several months. But later it started getting quicker and quicker: the altcoin season turned into an altcoin month, then an altcoin week, then an altcoin day… and now an altcoin day has turned into an altcoin hour. Next time, is the next leg going to become “altcoin minutes”? Of course, this also has a lot to do with those hosts on the square who are still encouraging their fans to make high-leverage, high-frequency bets. How should I put it… they keep saying things like “the principal is small,” so if you don’t bet, what’s the point? The big players already have little tolerance for error, and yet they’re encouraging their fans to use up that tiny tolerance even faster— just to get you those referral commissions?
I just felt something in the moment and said a few things—nothing official.

So many fake coins—this time the insertions are no less than 10.11. I have to admit, I’m kind of impressed by this market now. It hasn’t even been a year yet, and another round of liquidity extraction is already here. Luckily I didn’t lose money this time; I even made a bit. Being burned once and growing wiser really does have some use. The recent rollover teachers at the square are about to disappear in part again. This double kill was too brutal. I saw a coin drop to the bottom for a moment, then rebound a little—then it was pulled back up again. With no regulation, this market is really impossible to deal with. Keep chopping the entertainment, the volatility is brutal. I was starved to death by it—so I’m just a coward. I wonder if the bold and quick-handed ones managed to profit on both long and short at the same time.

This move aggressively leveraged a long squeeze—now it’s going to be uncomfortable again. Long and short both get wiped out: the shorts didn’t place orders to run away, and they probably can’t even get out of their positions. LMAO 😂 I thought of the script, but when it really happened, it still caught me off guard.
$BTC $HYPE $XRP

XRP should be ready to kill off the chasing longs—right hitting near the pressure level.

Honestly, even I’ve started to get afraid of heights at this point. Rationally, I know there should still be quite a few air-force troops (short sellers) that haven’t surrendered, and there are constantly people trying to test the top and go short. For now, it probably won’t come down. But since there’s no data from the “mastermind” (market maker), I don’t know how many short sellers are still left, or when the market maker will suddenly open an air-sharp drop to smash the market. So right now, if you chase longs, you must strictly set a stop-loss. I don’t recommend going short. At the very least, you should wait for the right-side to form a pattern: a decline–rebound that fails to break to a new high, then consider shorting. But by that time, the move often has already gone quite a ways, so the cost-effectiveness of shorting isn’t great. That’s why I’ve kept saying not to short. I hope the short sellers don’t surrender for now, so I can find chances to grab a few more waves.

Thanks to XRP, I originally wasn't really optimistic about him. It was indeed within the first few moves; the only thing I wouldn't do is take a position on spot.
I planned to short it, but after shorting twice and realizing I couldn't break to new lows, I entered at around 1.37. Then, it happened to be right at the breakout point—after that, it surged to 1.47 without any pullback even on the 1-minute timeframe.
Later on, even though there were shorting/falling “fuel” conditions, I thought the resistance level should be in the range of 1.53 to 1.75, but honestly I just didn't have much confidence in him. So I exited. The rest is for the brothers to earn

$XRP

Is it really a bullish comeback? Not sure, but after this round of gains, if we’re going to fall, then it should be the last drop!
In this run-up, the BTC perpetual contract at 6.6w basically ran—then Ethereum, Sol, and BNB also got out around the same time. They mostly exited right at the initial breakout point. Haha, perfect missed the bus. After that, I kept chasing and running the trades, but there’s nothing I can do—I didn’t dare hold for a bigger picture.
Good thing I said months ago that 6w BTC and 1800 ETH are great value, and spot can be accumulated. So during this time, I’ve been slowly buying spot. This round of spot I’ve held:
$BTC $ETH $HYPE #sol #bnb #gmx
Recently I added a pump, but that one only uses profits from contracts to buy a bit.

Then there’s the current 🉑 likelihood analysis—there are basically two possibilities:
1. The bull market is here. Then be patient and wait for a major pullback, then get in. After all, bull markets have plenty of brutal crashes—there will always be a chance to board. Don’t panic if you missed.
2. It’s still just a rebound. Then wait for the final wave of decline. After it drops, we may finally see true lows—then more opportunities will come.
But honestly, you shouldn’t really expect to scoop the spot at the absolute bottom.

Also, don’t randomly chase spot entries. Based on my observation, the sector rotation effect this time is much worse. Basically only the coins that still have “the boss” (a market maker) will get pulled up; more often, the ones that don’t get picked won’t.
Things like aave, link, near, bch, etc.—I’ll look for chances to trade them in waves, but I won’t hold spot, because I don’t have confidence in having to grind it out against the market maker.

Small tip: When the overall market suddenly spikes hard, look for coins similar to the ones that haven’t been pumped yet, and where the market maker is still around. Then go long—set a good stop loss and the risk/reward is decent. The downside is that opportunities are fewer. For example, this morning I opened a long on BCH at 220 and closed it at 260 in the afternoon. Don’t try to catch every single opportunity in moments like that—just stick with what you’re familiar with.

That’s the little essay for now. The first draft was typed once without saving—this is the second time!!! So annoying!

Also, that’s why I basically don’t post on Binance anymore: when things go up, people treat me like a long master who always wins; when things go down, I’m a short master. In general, there’s a group of people who have mastered the traffic hacks. They make money every day by posting garbage stuff, because most people just want a quick “bet” entry point. A real, proper analysis isn’t really worth the effort for engagement. Traffic masters should earn that money because they cater to what the market wants. But the kind of thing I do doesn’t make money easily, so I’ll just post whenever I feel like it. No big plans—low interest, so it’ll be a matter of timing.

For small levels, you start by pulling in the opposite direction first—go ahead and take a stop-loss wave to limit risk. Then you go back. Looking at the pattern, it looks like it should drop, but it can still push up for a wave—then it drops again. It always feels like the current clearing of big data and liquidity is happening, with stop-loss behavior that's abnormally strong, almost like a targeted demolition charge. Even the mindset for trading feels unstable; I’ve had to stop-loss many times recently. It’s really hard to stay calm.
$SNDK

Trading Log
Going long hype, placing orders across multiple platforms, adding positions along the way
Finally stopped out, actual loss 2000+ U
It was a position from earlier attempts to withstand the selling orders—I accepted it
Rating D-
2026-07-28 14:25

$BTC $ETH $SOL $BNB $HYPE $GMX