BTC Monthly Outlook｜48k: The Key Level That Determines Next Year's Market
Is this adjustment a bull market pullback, or the start of a bear market? My view has been quite clear all along: The 48,000–50,000 USD range is the most important bull-bear line for this BTC cycle. Judging from the monthly structure, we are more inclined to see a retest of the 48k–50k area in the second half of the year. If it reaches here, there are two completely different scenarios: ① Do not break below 48k (a relatively strong走势) Complete a monthly-level base in the 48k–50k range. Longs and shorts rotate positions thoroughly, gradually digesting the stuck supply above. Then a new round of upward cycle will resume. This is the kind of thing that trades time for space. The adjustment period may be relatively long, but the overall structure still remains that of a bull market.
Chan Theory Perspective: Is the High-Range Central Structure for BTC Turning Down? 9/4 Non-Farm Payrolls Could Become the Breakthrough Point
Bitcoin’s recent price action is starting to get interesting. Earlier, Bitcoin rose all the way from around $62,000, with the highest it reached: $81,520 Within a short period, it completed a very strong round of upward movement. But once it moved above $81,000, the market didn’t continue to break higher; instead, it began to enter high-range consolidation. More importantly: After making a new high, the consistency of upward movement has clearly declined. From the perspective of Chan Theory, this is often a phase that needs close attention. Also on 9/4 there is a Non-Farm Payrolls news release. Right now, the biggest risk for BTC isn’t the Non-Farm Payrolls data itself, but that after the data is released, the market finds that the bulls no longer have enough upward momentum.
