SviatoslavGusev

The market is already waiting for interest rate cuts.

If the data shows a strong economy and sticky inflation — there will be repricing. This is a risk for $BTC, $ETH, and $BNB.

The asymmetry is currently skewed downward, even if the chart looks confident.

Sometimes the best position at #crypto — is discipline, not leverage.

The winged phrase came to mind:
when MicroStrategy makes money, Saylor is a genius; when he loses money, he is a madman.

The narrative is a bit deeper: in crypto, the hedge against inflation is broken; during risk-off, $BTC behaves like NASDAQ, not like gold. It is not a safe asset.

Bitcoin has become institutional. Funds do not hold; they sell at stop-losses. And the scariest part: treasury companies: bought BTC on borrowed funds, have up to 50% debt, and are obliged to sell during a drop.

It's like 2008, only with bitcoin. The math is simple: price drops + stocks drop faster + there are debts = cascading sell-off.

Remember once and for all: crypto ≠ safe asset. Bitcoin = momentum + leverage. In the long run, there is potential, it may even reach $1M. But right now, the market is about structure and experience, not faith.

And here the situation with Bitcoin is more interesting: if $BTC BTC continues to rise to $80k, we might see a wave of liquidations at $5.2 billion.

Co-founder of Cardano Charles Hoskinson acknowledged that his portfolio has declined by more than $3 billion, but he called it simply 'paper losses' and does not intend to sell.

Meanwhile, his cryptocurrency $ADA has lost about $3 billion in market capitalization over the week. It's not easy for holders right now, of course, but we continue to trade.

I haven't looked at what's happening in the NFT market for a long time, I logged in, took a look, and logged out. To put it in two words: it is in as dire a state as $TON .

Telegram Gift has predictably started to fall in price. An exclusively speculative "asset" with no real value (like an unresolved gestalt after leaving VK (as was the case with Oskar Hartman and OK with GIFTERY).

Additionally, the pointless integration into UFC is a clear example of this. I am generally surprised when developers get into marketing; it is as strange as if a marketer or opera singer decided to write code themselves...

The narcissistic entrepreneurs' error with imposter syndrome: you think that if you've achieved success in one area, you understand everything. I'll let you in on a little secret: that's not the case.

And so, after a couple of days, the volume of shoulders has predictably returned to more stable values, without overheating. However, if you go to CoinMarketCap and look at the chart of $CMC20 (S&P500 in the world of crypto), one can state the unequivocal fact that the market has not yet taken off.

Binance has already purchased $BTC for $400 million, and their example was followed by Coinbase as well as almost all American companies that also bought Bitcoin. Essentially, everything is happening according to the scenario that I predicted two weeks ago.

Everyone has literally managed to profit from today's drop. It's amusing to reread posts from guys like Samson Mow (who integrated Bitcoin into El Salvador at the state level). And yes, $BTC has fallen below the maximum of the last cycle. The price is already below ATH by two times (as with some metals, like silver).

Seriously, I was reading the tg-channels of my friends tonight, who know about cryptocurrency roughly as much as they know about dark matter and quantum physics. Even they were posting circles in TGC, showing how they are shorting BTC/USDt and literally making thousands of dollars in just an hour…

The reason for the drop is obvious: people are withdrawing money for gifts for February 14 and March 8 (joke).

It may seem that the perfect blockchain Solana and ETH should work by itself, without constant active intervention. But if the network stops developing, it dies. And without aggressive development and upgrades for builders and users, the network degrades. This position is held by the creators $TON

According to one of my favorite IT startup unicorns, Polymarket, the probability that Bitcoin will surpass gold in 2026 has risen to 45%.

This is also reflected in the behavior of large wallets: bitcoins are actively being purchased by addresses with a balance of 10,000 BTC and more. At the same time, a gap has formed in the market in the range of $78k–$84k. Are we waiting for a correction?

#MMT

🟢 LONG

⌛️Time Frame: 4H

💰Current price: $0.23

Non-obvious idea. The asset is among the best performers of the day and simultaneously has one of the most overheated fundings in the market. Simply put, holding a long position now costs about 0.33% per hour.

If the risk on the trade is comparable to the size of the funding, in just an hour the position effectively becomes free.

The technical target is seen in the zone of December highs, however, in such an overheated market it makes more sense to look for an entry lower, at least from the level of 0.5 of the last impulse.

The trade looks smart, but it's important to calculate the risk here especially carefully.

Briefly about how markets work under Trump:

Stocks of defense company Lockheed Martin dropped 7% because Trump banned share buybacks and dividend payments to "defense companies".

A few hours pass. And Trump announces that the U.S. military budget needs to be increased from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion. After that, the company's stock rose by +7% 😂

Story of Failure: The Hamster and Notcoin. What happened to them?

Do you remember the STEPN game on Solana and BNB Chain? A few years later, another one appeared 🐹, launched just shortly after the success of Sasha's Notcoin in Telegram (the smart contract for which was written by my core-dev, Andrey, for ~$200k). The Hamster tap game was quickly launched by Eduard — co-founder of CarPrice and host of the YouTube project "Founders" of the same name.

For reference: Oscar Hartman 🚬 often acted as an investor in Edik's projects, and Hamster Kombat could theoretically have become one of the first unicorns on Durov's platform, even surpassing Andrey Rogozov 🐱 in the race.

But the miracle didn't happen. After a couple of years, we now have one of the most prominent failures of "Web3" projects in the industry, originating from ex-SNG developers. The "project" that absolutely failed, unable to handle its own "success".

RSI for Bitcoin on the weekly timeframe has entered the oversold zone. Historically, these have been the lows from which the market has rebounded in previous cycles.

Also, almost all sectors in the cryptocurrency market are closing in the red in 2025. Only 2 directions have proven to be resilient – these are private coins, with a growth of ~219%. And exchange tokens, with their modest growth of ~14%.

Interestingly, in previous years, January started with a pump in the market.

Will we repeat this year?

Bitcoin is currently holding above the 100-day moving average.

The last time it broke through was in 2022, and the market went into a correction of almost 57% 🤨

Will it manage to hold until the end of the year?

Short-term holders of BTC are currently exiting their positions at a loss on average.

Sales are mainly coming from those who entered the market in recent weeks.

This is a typical redistribution phase, where weak hands exit and the position shifts to more patient participants.

BTC is squeezed in $8 billion liquidations on both sides

🔻 A drop below ~$85K = a total of ~$8 billion liquidations of longs

🔺 A rise to the zone ~$95–98K = also a total of ~$8 billion liquidations of shorts

Locally, the chances have leveled out 😈

November 6 discussed the risk of market cooling if we do not return 107k for BTC.

And for now, it seems we are following the scenario of previous cycles.

What are your expectations? I think I will make a review of the market state.

If Bloomberg is to be believed, yesterday's FOMC press conference was the most "dovish" since 2021.

They analyzed Powell's speech – there was minimal negativity.

However, this has not helped the markets so far, $BTC fell back to $90,000 overnight.