果粒橙C

Every day I want to short, but every day I haven't.

#加密市场回暖
Who says retail investors are useless? This market trend is thanks to us retail investors being the fuel; every market trend is fueled by retail investors; just looking at the short selling situation and the cost in coin terms last night shows that retail investors put in a lot of effort.

#circle拒冻结被盗usdc

Indicator;

I have never really been accustomed to using indicators; my analysis has always been based on naked candlesticks combined with the order book. I stumbled upon this indicator and adjusted the parameters a bit; upon reviewing it, I found it quite interesting. The red line indicates a short signal, and the green line indicates a long signal. I have always disliked using indicators because they are too lagging; however, after setting the parameters, I found the review somewhat interesting; after all, it's just a review; it's not real money; without real money, I believe that the review results are invalid;

Today, I will test with 100u on a small scale; opening each position with the same percentage; let's see if it can be effective; whether it has lagging properties; or if it will still dig traps; if it works, I will let everyone know; if it doesn't, I will lose 100u;

#circle拒冻结被盗usdc
If the BTCBTC price rises to around 75500, the liquidation amount will reach over 80 million;
If it falls to around 74000, the liquidation amount will be over 60 million, so where will it go?
I don't know, but if there is no 4-hour bearish candlestick on the chart, everyone trying to eat the long army's seat will probably not get a bargain; Simply put, if you really can't resist the price at this level, then just go in and out quickly like a quick shooter is fine. $BTC

#circle拒冻结被盗usdc price is still rising; the volume and price are increasing healthily; short selling? No rush; no giving away heads;

The air force shook his head again early in the morning, seeing this cost dog not shaking his head, I shook my head; isn't this bullshit of shorting without spending money or what? Just keep shorting;

$BTC
Can $BTC have a smooth collapse?

#霍尔木兹海峡再次关闭 The market is somewhat weak but not completely bearish; and the bearish divergence in the market is not obvious; it is indeed difficult to decide;
I don't know where tonight's unemployment claims news, the CPI on the 10th, and the negotiation news will lead us;
After shorting last night, I found that today's market drop was too ugly, and it didn't show a nice pattern; still a bit uneasy; I'm not afraid of anything, just afraid of that old guy's broken mouth.

The upper resistance zone has not yet been reached; being too anxious to short will only become fuel.

At noon, $BTC mentioned that both early and late shorts would be rising fuel, and indeed it continued to rise;
The market has seen an increase in both volume and price; is the air force not having a good time?

#Drift称攻击事件疑为朝鲜黑客策划
This wave of increase has not ended; during this period, short positions should be closed promptly;
Where is all this new issuance of USDC preparing to go over the past week?
The weekly level has reached the end of consolidation, and I am still optimistic about the rebound in the second quarter;

Why are you in such a hurry to short before the stock opens? I'll wait until the stock opens to short $BTC

$BTC

The big pancake is exhausting.

Will cryptocurrency be about to disrupt the landscape again?

Bitcoin surged 2.3% overnight, briefly approaching $92,400 before pulling back, while privacy coins stole the spotlight. Market momentum remains unpredictable, leaving traders constantly checking charts, following rumors, and monitoring social media updates.

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Is it a bull market breakout or a deeper correction?

Volatility compression signals an impending market turning point

Axel Adler's recent analysis highlights a key shift in the Bitcoin market structure: realized volatility has narrowed to 23.6%, approaching the lower end of this cycle's historical range. This decline in volatility does not indicate a directional market signal but reflects a temporary loss of momentum, with reduced price swings and weaker pulse intensity. Such conditions rarely persist for long in previous cycles.

From a structural perspective, this environment suggests Bitcoin is in a typical compression phase. As volatility contracts, underlying imbalances between supply and demand often accumulate in the background. When these imbalances reach a critical point, prices typically shift abruptly from a consolidation phase to an expansion phase.

The 30-day high-low range of Bitcoin further supports this view. The gap between recent rolling highs and lows has continued to narrow, confirming that prices are now oscillating within an increasingly tight range. Both intraday and multi-day volatility have diminished, with neither buyers nor sellers able to maintain control of the market.

Historically, breaking out of such a narrow range often attracts algorithmic trading and trend-following capital. Once the price breaks out of the range, subsequent movements tend to be stronger. While this pattern does not guarantee a rise or fall in price, it does indicate that the likelihood of a decisive move is increasing. As volatility and range indicators align, Bitcoin appears to be approaching a critical juncture, with the consolidation phase poised to end and a new directional move on the horizon.

XRP price attempts recovery

XRP price failed to hold above $2.20 and, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, began another round of decline. The price broke below $2.150 and $2.120, entering a short-term bearish zone.

The price even dipped below $2.050. After forming a low around $2.034, the price is currently attempting a rebound. The price briefly broke above $2.080 but remains below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from the $2.415 high to the $2.034 low.

Currently, the price is below $2.120 and the 100-hour simple moving average. If a new rally emerges, resistance may appear around $2.10. Additionally, on the XRP/USD hourly chart, a key descending trendline is forming, with resistance near $2.10.

The first major resistance level is near $2.120. If the price closes above $2.120, it could rise further to $2.220, or reach the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from the $2.415 high to the $2.034 low.

The next resistance level is at $2.320. If the price effectively breaks above the $2.320 resistance, it could rise further to the $2.350 resistance level. If the price continues to rise, it might extend toward the $2.3850 resistance level. The next major resistance for bulls could be near $2.40.

The surge in futures trading volume suggests a significant shift in positions

According to CoinGlass data, on January 10, Cardano futures on the Bitmex exchange saw a 27,631.45% increase in 24-hour trading volume, reaching $47.64 million. Although this reflects activity on a single platform, such a massive increase indicates either institutional investors building positions or large whales preparing for targeted price movements.

After a decline the previous day, open interest rose nearly 2% today to $790.3 million. The increase in open interest suggests new capital entering the market, rather than a reallocation of existing positions. When both futures trading volume and open interest surge simultaneously, it typically signals increased market volatility, as leveraged traders take directional bets.

On January 6, ADA price reached $0.4374, breaking above the 50-day moving average of $0.40 for the first time since early October. Since then, market positions have adjusted. However, this breakout failed, and the price declined for four consecutive trading days, falling back below the key moving average.

Today, Dogecoin's price traded around $0.1394, following the announcement of a strategic partnership among House of Doge, abc Co., Ltd., and ReYuu Japan, aimed at expanding Dogecoin's ecosystem in Japan. This fundamental catalyst aligns with a bullish divergence signal on the daily chart, the fifth such occurrence since August, suggesting that technical indicators and market sentiment may be converging, potentially signaling a price rebound.

Fifth bullish divergence signal since August

The daily chart shows a bullish signal from the RSI divergence indicator at 51.66, marking the fifth instance since August. Previous similar signals in early September, mid-October, late November, mid-December, and early January all preceded subsequent price increases of 15% to 30%.

This indicator identifies situations where price makes new lows while RSI makes new highs, indicating that although downward pressure persists, selling momentum is weakening. Such divergence typically signals a potential price reversal, as weak sellers retreat and buyers step in at support levels.

The 30-minute chart shows Dogecoin holding the super trend support level at $0.1386, which also served as the bottom during recent consolidation. The price is currently testing the downward channel resistance near $0.1400.

The Parabolic SAR reading is $0.1401, slightly above the current price. If the closing price exceeds this level, the indicator will turn bullish on the short-term timeframe, confirming that buyers are actively defending the structure rather than merely providing temporary support.

"Long Trap"?

After a strong upward move following the January opening, Bitcoin has risen for five consecutive days, rebounding over 13% from its December low. Although the price has broken above the downward trend since November, it still remains confined within the December opening range.

As long as the price is still suppressed below the range's resistance, the overall structure suggests that long positions remain relatively vulnerable. The current focus shifts to: will this rally evolve into a sustained breakout, or will it ultimately be proven a "long trap," paving the way for renewed downward pressure? The battle lines on Bitcoin/USD's technical chart have now been drawn.

In fact, Bitcoin is still trading below key technical resistance while the December opening range remains intact—watching the breakout direction will provide guidance. From a trading perspective, if the price continues to lean downward during this phase, any rebound should be capped around 94,236.

Bitcoin faces pressure and tests the 90,000 support level; is this rebound a 'bull trap'?

On Thursday (January 8), during the Asian session, Bitcoin attempted to hold the 91,000 USD mark after a sharp drop the previous day. Analysts believe this correction in the virtual asset market is a short-term adjustment following a rapid price surge. Since the beginning of the year, virtual asset prices have risen sharply in a short period, triggering a wave of profit-taking sell-offs that pushed the market downward.

According to data from the global cryptocurrency market tracking platform CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin fell over 2% yesterday, dipping as low as 90,629 USD during the session.

The CoinDesk 20 index, which tracks the performance of the top 20 cryptocurrencies, dropped nearly 4% during the same period, with XRP leading the decline, falling over 8%. Ethereum dropped 3.6%, despite major Wall Street firm Morgan Stanley announcing it would offer a spot Ethereum ETF, which failed to provide a price boost.

This crypto sell-off occurred as the Nasdaq index rose 0.5%; meanwhile, precious metals, which had seen strong gains earlier, reversed course—gold fell 1%, and silver dropped 5%.

Stocks related to 'Digital Asset Treasury' (DAT) did not strengthen noticeably despite MSCI's announcement Tuesday evening that it would 'temporarily not exclude Strategy (MSTR) from its index'.

Strategy performed relatively well, rising 1%, but most other stocks in the sector declined: Bitmine Immersion fell 6%, Sharplink Gaming dropped 2%, and XXI declined 5%.

Looking at the weekly chart, the ratio between MSTR and iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has rebounded near the 3 level for the second consecutive week, currently standing at approximately 3.11. In March 2024, this ratio found support near 3, then rose steadily to a peak of 9.5 in November 2024, coinciding with MSTR's all-time high stock price. Bulls will closely watch whether the 3 level can continue to serve as a support.