GEMINI

#Bitcoin has fallen below its True Market Mean for the first time in about 2.5 years. The last time this happened, BTC was around $29,000. This is a rare on chain signal that usually appears during high fear and heavy selling. Historically, it has shown up closer to market reset zones than market tops.

#XRP’s realized price is sitting near $1.48, and the current setup strongly resembles the market structure from April 2022. Back then, price moved in a tight range as participants positioned themselves ahead of a larger move. Similar behavior now suggests the market may be in an accumulation phase, where patience matters more than speed. A clear breakout or breakdown will likely define the next trend, so watching liquidity zones and overall crypto market direction is key...

#Bitcoin has seen a sharp sell off, pushing the spot price down to $78.6K, placing it below several major on chain valuation benchmarks. The Short Term Holder cost basis remains elevated at $95.4K, indicating widespread losses among recent entrants, while the Active Investors’ mean price of $87.3K also sits well above current levels. Price has now slipped under the True Market Mean at $80.5K, a zone often associated with fair valuation, reflecting rising market pressure and fear.

Meanwhile, the Realized Price at $55.9K continues to define a key long term support level, the market is still far from historically deep undervaluation. This setup points to a period of stress-driven behavior that has, in past cycles, aligned with late correction phases or early accumulation opportunities.

#Bitcoin has seen a sharp sell off, pushing the spot price down to $78.6K, placing it below several major on chain valuation benchmarks. The Short Term Holder cost basis remains elevated at $95.4K, indicating widespread losses among recent entrants, while the Active Investors’ mean price of $87.3K also sits well above current levels. Price has now slipped under the True Market Mean at $80.5K, a zone often associated with fair valuation, reflecting rising market pressure and fear.

Meanwhile, the Realized Price at $55.9K continues to define a key long term support level, the market is still far from historically deep undervaluation. This setup points to a period of stress-driven behavior that has, in past cycles, aligned with late correction phases or early accumulation opportunities.

#Bitcoin has seen a sharp sell off, pushing the spot price down to $78.6K, placing it below several major on chain valuation benchmarks. The Short Term Holder cost basis remains elevated at $95.4K, indicating widespread losses among recent entrants, while the Active Investors’ mean price of $87.3K also sits well above current levels. Price has now slipped under the True Market Mean at $80.5K, a zone often associated with fair valuation, reflecting rising market pressure and fear.

Meanwhile, the Realized Price at $55.9K continues to define a key long term support level, the market is still far from historically deep undervaluation. This setup points to a period of stress-driven behavior that has, in past cycles, aligned with late correction phases or early accumulation opportunities.

#Bitcoin is currently going through the largest correction of this cycle, following a sharp 6.6% drop in the most recent session. After topping out near $126,000, BTC has now pulled back by around 36.9%. Although this is the deepest retracement seen so far in the cycle, it remains relatively mild when compared to historical bear market declines.

In every previous cycle, once Bitcoin entered a true bear market, total drawdowns eventually exceeded 75%. Against that backdrop, the current correction still fits within the range of a cycle level pullback rather than signaling a confirmed market top.

Around $ETH 5 billion in long positions would be liquidated if #BTC moves by about $10,000 ❗️

Still Extreme Fear 👀

So far, capitulation zones have not reappeared, as the blue bars remain absent. Over the past three years, the market has instead moved into euphoria phases multiple times, highlighted by the red bars. Strong optimism has dominated, while a true fear driven reset is still pending and may be needed for a healthier market structure ahead.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Over the past 24 hours, about 35,100 #BTC have been sent to exchanges at a realized loss, one of the most notable spikes in recent weeks.

Long liquidations worth nearly $300 million were triggered as #Bitcoin moved lower, adding heavy sell pressure and pushing the price down further.

A sharp move down to $82.9K put strong pressure on the derivatives market, triggering a large wave of long liquidations within the last 24 hours. The scale of these forced closures reflects aggressive leverage on the long side.

Even so, Funding Rates have stayed positive, indicating that many traders are still positioning for upside. Deleveraging remains incomplete and the market could see continued volatility if price action challenges these remaining long positions.

The #Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has shifted from fear to extreme fear 👀

#Bitcoin started the year strong, printing two higher highs and reaching $95.6k. The move pushed price into a key supply zone held by Long Term Holders. Price is now trading inside the April to July 2025 LTH distribution area.

Since November, rallies into the $93k to $110k range have faced steady sell pressure. This zone is a major barrier between correction and bullish continuation. Absorbing this overhead supply is crucial for a clear trend shift.

Market dynamics are shifting as the 90 day SMA of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio falls sharply from nearly 19 in July 2025 to about 1.7 today. This move highlights weakening demand and rising frustration among investors, as realized losses begin to catch up with profits.

Similar readings in the past have aligned with low liquidity environments like those seen in 2018 and 2022. If history rhymes, the market may be entering another quiet consolidation phase before a clearer direction emerges.

#Bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S. saw record inflows of $72.6B in October 2025. Since that peak, $6.1B has exited the market, reducing total holdings to $66.5B. That puts ETFs down 8.4% from their highs, marking the first meaningful pressure test since launch.

This phase will reveal how strong ETF holders really are. If selling slows, it supports the long term bull case. If outflows continue, it could add short term pressure across the crypto market and influence institutional behavior going forward.

Historically, the Risk Index and Network Growth together have been a reliable leading indicator for #Bitcoin. In previous cycles, a sharp drop in Network Growth during a high risk environment has often appeared before strong bullish moves. This usually signals market reset before expansion. Since Bitcoin tends to react late, this setup could be hinting at a solid rally ahead if the pattern repeats.

Still Fear 👀

Long term #Bitcoin holders have sold nearly 143,000 #BTC over the past month, according to Glassnode, marking the fastest selling pace since August. This shift highlights increased profit taking from experienced investors after recent price strength.

While it may add short term pressure on the market, similar patterns in the past have often appeared during periods of consolidation rather than clear reversals. The data suggests a changing dynamic in holder behavior that could influence Bitcoin’s near term direction.