山与白鲸

Sometime ago, I shared a viewpoint: when liquidity is worse, you should play small-cap coins; when liquidity is better, you should play large-cap coins.

Why? Some people might find the logic a bit hard to grasp, so let me explain it in more detail.

1. Whether it’s a coin or a stock, when it rises, you need turnover—meaning you need money to take the other side, to push the price up. But if liquidity is very poor, the amount of capital available to absorb trades is limited, not enough to keep pushing the price higher. In this stage, even if large-cap stocks/coins have big positive catalysts, they won’t necessarily produce a major move.

2. When liquidity is good, institutions, big players, and others will tend to choose large-cap issues. The reason is simple: good liquidity means it’s easier for capital to enter and exit. Only large-cap issues can absorb large amounts of capital. So when liquidity is very good, small-cap coins won’t get played much.

The most outrageous alpha is often not trading.
A friend of mine had staking rewards from the bank that he never claimed.
Today he went to claim them and found out:

200,000 $BANK tokens, worth about $50,000.
Who can you reason with about this?

Bought $ON, now I’m about to earn enough to feel full

Do you feel like this year’s SpaceX is exactly like PetroChina, which went public in 2007—peaking at the time of listing, then gradually sliding downward for more than a decade. The most widely circulated joke back then was: “Tell me, how much sorrow can you have? It’s like holding a full position in PetroChina.”

1/Why do Russian farms put VR glasses on cows?
Because Russian cows are prone to winter depression, which leads to lower milk production.

2/How to test whether your kidney qi is sufficient?
First hold your breath, then keep typing 6 in the comment section—if you can produce more than three lines, it means your kidney qi is relatively sufficient.

$HYPE drops back to 40—I’ll definitely buy aggressively
Even if it rises to 100, I’ll still hold it, because my target price is more than 100

When winning, overcome fear
When losing, overcome greed

Recently, fraudulent "Zhuang" tickets have been going around. If you can’t get your hands on them, it’s also not a bad idea to play around with the investment mini-game in Binance Wallet.

In this bear market, there are a few types of people who make money in Crypto 👇

1. Those who have always been bullish on $HYPE
2. Those who were the earliest to profit from arbitrage on prediction platforms
3. Those who have always studied "Zhuang" tickets
4. Those who lower their expectations and invest in wealth management
5. On-chain top-tier "P" up-and-comers
6. Those focused on doing FA in Crypto

Anything else that should be added?

In the 2008 financial crisis, Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) fell to a low of roughly HK$60–70 billion in market value. Although it was dragged down by the market-wide crash, its business was actually surging ahead against the trend. Later, in February 2021, it reached its peak—Tencent’s market cap climbed to a high of HK$7.3 trillion, turning into a hundredfold miracle!

In the 2015 market crash, the same thing happened: the liquor industry faced a winter. Kweichow Moutai’s market cap fell to around RMB 120 billion at its lowest. But Moutai demonstrated very high return on net assets and absolute pricing power. As the industry recovered, Moutai rose all the way to a peak market cap of RMB 3.2 trillion—up by nearly 25x!

Today, $HYPE (Hyperliquid) is seeing its business surge against the tide in a bear market: TVL and trading volume keep setting new highs, and the price is even making new highs in the bear market. The fundamentals and counter-trend growth ability that HYPE is showing now are just like Tencent and Moutai back then—indicating the potential to become a phenomenon-level super asset!

So we don’t need to limit it to benchmarking against BNB. Hyperliquid is, in essence, a 24/7 global multi-asset trading platform that disrupts CME/ICE, covering stocks, FX, commodities, and Pre-IPO companies—not merely competing with Binance. My strategy is to buy more HYPE on dips and simply wait for it to bloom.

Business expansion: We are looking for quantitative strategies with stable profitability capabilities or excellent quantitative teams

1/ We provide ample liquidity support and a comprehensive compliance framework

2/ We need to focus on high-frequency, mean-reversion, CTA, or high-alpha trend strategies. Requirements: sound risk control mechanisms, and the ability to provide a real and credible live trading track record.

As stated in the “Shurangama Sutra” (Da Fo Ding Shou Leng Yan Jing): “May I offer my body and mind to the myriad dust-lands; thus is called repaying the Buddha’s kindness.”

1/Why do Russian farms put VR glasses on cows?
Because Russian cows are prone to winter depression, which leads to lower milk production.

2/How to test whether your kidney qi is sufficient?
Hold your breath, then keep tapping 6 in the comments. If you can produce three lines or more, that means your kidney qi is relatively sufficient.

Do you feel that this year’s SpaceX is very much like PetroChina, which was listed in 2007: it reached its peak the moment it went public, then drifted downward for over a decade. Back then, the most widely circulated joke was: “Tell me, how much sorrow can you have? It’s like being fully invested in PetroChina.” Some ancient gods of speculation all thought that SpaceX was the next PetroChina—so shorting it at high points might be the most entertaining exit.

I gave the framework to GPT, and it used my framework to build a semi-automated terminal for assessing liquidity. Although I haven’t yet checked whether the data is correct or not, the iteration efficiency of the AI is honestly a bit terrifying.

When PoKa was at its hottest that year, there was a ten-thousand-member chat group. Tonight I opened the group and saw this message. In Web3, no matter how sexy the story is, in the end it all turns into a mess. Only a very small number of projects can stand the test of time. If you miss the train, you have no cost—but if you get on the wrong one, the cost will be very high.

How to view the double-edged sword and extreme tear of Bitcoin? Let's play out the script for the golden pit.

1. Risk Release Phase (Pessimistic): Bitcoin is super sensitive to liquidity.

Both the USD and JPY are facing interest rate hike concerns; if the JPY raises interest rates, arbitrage funds will flee, leading to a massive liquidity gap globally, potentially replicating the sell-off seen during the JPY interest rate hike in 2024. This Wednesday's US CPI is likely to exacerbate expectations for USD interest rate hikes, putting pressure on growth assets represented by tech stocks, with Bitcoin possibly acting as the vanguard of a sharp downturn.

The reason is that since Bitcoin's spot ETF passed on Wall Street, it has essentially been categorized in macro fund positions as a high beta, high liquidity tech growth stock extension.

If a sell-off similar to the 2024 JPY arbitrage occurs, Wall Street bulls will often first sell off crypto assets, which are traded 24/7 and have excellent liquidity, to replenish liquidity in US stocks or add margin. Therefore, in the early stages of US stock adjustments, Bitcoin will likely follow the stock market and even amplify losses, undergoing a brutal deleveraging.

2. Once Adjustments are in Place (Optimistic): Bitcoin will return to being the ultimate hedge instrument against fiat credit.

After the first phase of liquidity risk is released, the AI bubble passively tightens, and macroeconomic negatives are digested, Bitcoin's second attribute will be fully activated.

Alphabet's $80 billion financing, while tactically locking in its computing moat, strategically announces that the pace at which AI consumes capital has already surpassed the blood-generating speed of its core business. Equity financing is a last resort; the big players have shown all their cards. What's next? Similarly, global central banks, facing liquidity crises and economic recessions, have already played their last cards, and their ultimate move can only be to cut interest rates again or even restart unlimited QE to inject liquidity.

When the market realizes that fiat credit must be devalued again to save debt and the tech bubble, funds will only flow in a very singular direction towards top giants within the tech sector, while in the hard asset realm, they will surge into BTC.

Summary: Just wait for the golden pit after the deleveraging. When the market, due to liquidity exhaustion, drives BTC into a deep pit, it often presents the best left-side entry opportunity for those who are locally highly optimistic.

AI is getting more advanced, theoretically every DeFi project is at risk of being hacked, whether it's a code bug or a business logic flaw. This will increasingly test the professionalism of Web3 teams. #ZEC

If Binance could make switching between master and sub-accounts as easy as switching Twitter accounts, I bet it would be a game changer for a lot of users. One master account can create 5 sub-accounts, and I believe many users would have a habit of categorizing their accounts for different purposes, like futures accounts/spot accounts/short-term or long-term accounts/US stock accounts.

After learning about STO, I got some information

The market maker for $STO and $pippin is the same

STO has been listed on the monitoring list

Project parties need to be cautious when looking for market makers, or they might end up ruining the project, which would be a loss!

In the future, every golden dog on the Sol chain will be reminded
When you want to P, just P a little
You won't miss the top-notch narrative

On the BSC chain, we have robots
Every golden dog will get on board
It just depends on how many times you can multiply