梧桐Pro

#全球市场波动
#美伊和谈陷僵局

Regional conflicts are escalating, and the market is also unpredictable. It's the end of the month again, and there have been five consecutive months of large bearish candles. I was originally thinking that this month would definitely have a bullish candle, so there was still some hope ahead!

Unfortunately, things don't go as one wishes. With such a long upper shadow, who knows what will happen this month? There are still two trading days left, and there have been unreliable statements about ground warfare, which is likely to trigger a market crash!

I still believe we should be full of hope. The war will definitely end, and the tense situation will ease. The beautiful country's beautiful scenery— the largest scale parade will also have some effect on the conflict, right!

Let's wait and see what happens in the next couple of days! The chairman of Bitmine predicts that the crypto winter will end in April!
$BTC $ETH

#夏令时
#提前一小时

Unknowingly, Daylight Saving Time in North America is about to begin!!

March 8, 2026, 15:00
Daylight Saving Time will start in North America, and the trading hours of financial markets in the United States and Canada, as well as the release times of economic data, will be one hour earlier than Standard Time.

In the future, macroeconomic data that needs to be released at 21:30 will also be one hour earlier!

The opening time of the US stock market will also be one hour earlier, opening for trading at 21:30! Similarly, pre-market trading will be moved up from 5:00 PM to 4:00 PM!!!

#美以袭击伊朗
#美伊冲突
2026.2.28 14:00 around

On the last day of February, the conflict broke out completely! The crypto market reacted and fell!

Last night, I saw Huangmao make statements against Iran, and I felt that this weekend might have some big events!

Indeed, the market couldn't escape the doom of decline!
The screen is filled with news about the US, Israel, and Iran!!

Suddenly, it reminded me of Miss Qiu from October 1946, "Miss Qiu got married today, the ceremony was successful, and it didn't alarm the neighbors!"

Well, extremes meet, and all the bad things have already come, but they will eventually pass. Seize the opportunity to adjust your positions!

Historical data shows that a large market cap of over sixty thousand points may not be very appealing, but eighteen hundred for Ethereum should be a decent price compared to the whales in Ethereum!
$BTC $ETH

#美国伊朗对峙
#2月即将结束
It's another Friday, and the monthly close is approaching!
At the start of this month, I was still fantasizing about closing with a bullish candle, but that fantasy has been shattered, and I've managed to get through another month!

The US-Iran confrontation is about to start again, and countries are reminding their citizens to evacuate Iran!!!

It seems that the market is not dropping too much at the moment; I just hope there's not another wave over the weekend!!!

Historically, the maximum duration of consecutive declines is five months, and this time it has reached five consecutive months of decline. The last time there was a five-month drop, it was followed by a continuous rise. History doesn't repeat itself; we can only learn from it!

Currently, the market appears to be oscillating at a low level, and the duration is not yet sufficient. It has not even been a month since the lowest point on February 6th, but it feels like a change is imminent. I'm just not sure whether it will go up or down!!!

Those who are trapped have already been locked in; there is still more than 30% in positions left, and if it drops further, I'll have to go all in!

I hope to break free from the situation soon and achieve a little bit of gain!

#btc走勢
#何时抄底？
Since Yili Hua cleared out, to be honest, I am also a bit panicked, and I am not sure whether to cut losses and reduce leverage or to continue to hold on!\n\nRecently, there have been more and more bearish voices in the square, and it looks quite desolate. I just saw the predictions on Polymarket, stating that the probability of Bitcoin dropping to 55,000 is 78%, and the probability of dropping to 50,000 is currently reported at 63%.\n\nEven Bitmine, which has been continuously increasing its holdings of Ethereum, said that Ethereum will drop below 1,800!\n\nVarious institutions and forecasting organizations, many influencers are talking about breaking key support levels and so on!\n\nAs a buddy of the iron-headed bulls, I have been liquidated multiple times, with losses exceeding 27.52 million dollars!\n\nTo be honest, I am also a bit panicked, truly panicking a lot. At this position, cutting losses and reducing positions really doesn’t mean much, and continuing to hold on is a bit exhausting...\n\nGet some faith for yourself! Give yourself some encouragement!!\n\nCarving a boat to seek a sword, in history, February has only had three losses, and every time after a loss in February, the following years have all seen gains. Moreover, historically, January is a month of decline, while February is a month of increase!\n\nAlso, continuous declines for more than four months have only occurred once in history, in 2018.\n\nHistory cannot be replicated; carving a boat to seek a sword is just a psychological comfort for oneself!\n\nThere is one hour left, and the unemployment rate non-farm data will be released soon; let’s wait and see!\n\nIf it continues to drop, I will keep adding to my position. If it really reaches around 50,000, I will be all in, and if it breaks below 50,000, I will have to resort to collateralized loans!

#加密市场结构法案
#鲸鱼在持续积累
Last week, after experiencing a low liquidation of 60,000 US dollars, it has rebounded above 70,000. What kind of performance will the market show this week?

Firstly, tomorrow the White House may hold a meeting on Bitcoin and the structure of the cryptocurrency market, so we need to look at the latest progress!

Additionally, there will be data released this week,
especially on February 11 (Wednesday) at 21:30
【US January Unemployment Rate】
Previous value: 4.40% Expected: 4.40% Released value: Not released
Gold Ten Data Importance Rating: ★★★★★
【US January Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Employment】
Previous value: 5 Expected: 7 Released value: Not released
Gold Ten Data Importance Rating: ★★★★★

There is also relatively important data on February 13, 2026 (Friday) at 21:30
【US January Unadjusted CPI Year-on-Year】
Previous value: 2.70% Expected: 2.50% Released value: Not released
Gold Ten Data Importance Rating: ★★★★★
【US January Seasonally Adjusted CPI Month-on-Month】
Previous value: 0.30% Expected: 0.30% Released value: Not released
Gold Ten Data Importance Rating: ★★★★☆

In fact, on February 6 recently, whale addresses flowed in 66,940 bitcoins, which is the largest single-day inflow in this cycle.

The Sharpe ratio of Bitcoin is currently in negative territory, currently at -10, the lowest level since March 2023, consistent with the characteristics of the end of a bear market, but it does not mean that the bear market is over.
Looking back at historical data, the Sharpe ratio fell to a low at the end of 2022 to the beginning of 2023 and also at the end of 2018 to the beginning of 2019, both being troughs of bear market cycles. Analysts point out that a negative Sharpe ratio usually indicates that a market reversal is near.

There are large whales selling and cutting losses, while more capital continues to accumulate. The market is right here; it depends on your own understanding. I mentioned before that the current price-performance ratio is still good. It just depends on what price level of chips you want to hold and what price level of chips you can get, so you can harvest how much profit when it rises!

#ETH
What is going on?
Is a big market trend about to happen??
Please tell me if it's going up or down???

#突发新闻
South Korean crypto exchange mistakenly issued $95 billion worth of Bitcoin

Just now at 01:50, there was news that a South Korean cryptocurrency exchange accidentally issued Bitcoin worth $95 billion due to an operational error.

I find it quite puzzling; $95 billion at the current price of 70,000 translates to 9500000/7=1357142.857.
Currently, the market value of Bitcoin is 1.4 trillion, which means they directly issued 15% of Bitcoin!

MicroStrategy currently holds 710,000 Bitcoins, with a total value of only $49 billion. If this $95 billion Bitcoin is dumped, it would definitely break the floor!!

Hahahahaha, a sell order for 1,000 oil Bitcoins went through.

$BTC

#BTC何时反弹？
#加密市场回调
Fortunately, the worries I had in the early morning did not happen,
It is truly a blessing that no significant date appeared!!

In the early morning, it really felt like something was about to happen; I didn't dare to rest. Around seven-thirty to eight o'clock, I felt there was nothing going on; I estimated it would still decline slowly because that sharp drop hadn't occurred yet!

I didn't expect that in a short while, the computer went off like crazy, to be honest, it made me quite anxious.

In the early morning, I took profit on my short position, thinking there might be a rebound or reversal here. I couldn't tell if a major bottom had appeared or if it was just a dead cat bounce, but I thought it was always a good idea to take some profit when I saw a gain!

$BTC $BNB

#插针行情
#风险预警

I feel very bad,
Holding on to this point for stop loss is useless,
Is something big going to happen before dawn again??
Could it be another date event!??
Could 206 be another milestone?????
$BTC
$ETH

#特朗普称坚定支持加密货币
#加密周期

The cold winter has arrived, will spring be far behind?

The bulls and those holding spot assets must be going crazy, right?

Currently, there are basically no positive news, all we see are negatives, and everything is falling without direction! The bears are making a fortune.

I started buying the dip quite early, saying it was buying the bottom, but now it seems like I was just standing guard on the mountainside!
However, I still firmly believe that we still have a chance; this circle won't disappear!

As long as it doesn't disappear, and we hold on without letting ourselves get liquidated, I believe there is still a high probability of opportunity, I am convinced!

In fact, we don't really know where the true bottom is, just like last time with Bitcoin, when it fell to around seventy-five thousand, those who said it would drop to fifty thousand were considered merciful, while many were saying it would drop to twenty or thirty thousand! The same goes for Ethereum; when it fell to over thirteen hundred, to be honest, I was liquidated at that time. At first, I thought there was a high probability it wouldn't break 2500, and later I even thought 2000 was strong support. Then 1500 also broke down, and at that time, I really wondered if it might truly break 880 and hit a new low as the influencers said, but I still kept buying whenever I had funds!

This time, from the high position down, Bitcoin has only dropped by over forty points, and Ethereum is currently down less than sixty points. I think the probability of Bitcoin breaking sixty thousand and dropping to fifty thousand is really low, and I believe we are already at the bottom range!

I feel that the altcoins have already hit the bottom with their severe drop, of course, many trash altcoins may still drop another eighty or ninety points, but how much further can many quality altcoins drop? They have already hit new low after new low!

Finally, let's encourage each other: control your positions, persist to the end, winter will eventually pass, face the sea, and the spring flowers will bloom!

$BTC $ETH

#特朗普对欧洲加征关税 #比特币2026年价格预测

This year, it seems that this circle may be harder to operate, as it appears to have broken away from the original four-year cycle, and the fluctuations seem random!

Behind this seemingly random rise and fall, it is indeed dictated by an old man with yellow hair!

I have to admire this old man, translated as Trump or Trump, who is incredibly impressive.

$BTC

#美联储降息预期升温
#美联储理事米兰提前剧透

Major event, the most important data will be released shortly. Was there a hint in the speech by Federal Reserve Governor Milan at 9:30 PM tonight?

Federal Reserve Governor Milan said:
It is expected that the data will continue to indicate that rate cuts are appropriate.

Does this mean the upcoming data should be supportive of rate cut expectations?

Moreover, Milan stated that the Fed should cut rates by more than 100 basis points this year.

Milan has been a staunch supporter of Trump, a clear dovish advocate for rate cuts, and his views merely reflect his personal stance. He was also an advocate for aggressive rate cuts in the previous two instances!

His opinions are largely self-referential and unlikely to be adopted, but they do provide some psychological support for those firmly bullish!

#比特币2026年价格预测
#本周重要数据即将公布

At the beginning of 2026, the market has gained five consecutive days of growth!!!
Even the US-Venezuela conflict has not hindered the market's upward trend!

Important data is coming this week; will the market continue to surge upward as always, or will it pull back and then continue to rise, or is a major correction approaching?

First, let's take a look at the data that will be announced in the coming days:

January 7, 2026, Wednesday, 21:15
【US December ADP Employment Change】 Ten Thousand
Previous Value: -3.2 Expected: 4.5 Actual: Not released
Importance Rating: ★★★★☆

January 8, 2026, Thursday, 21:30
【US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 3】 Ten Thousand
Previous Value: 19.9 Expected: 21.6 Actual: Not released
Importance Rating: ★★★★☆

January 9, 2026, Friday, 21:30
【US December Unemployment Rate】
Previous Value: 4.60% Expected: 4.50% Actual: Not released
Importance Rating: ★★★★★
【US December Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Payrolls】 Ten Thousand
Previous Value: -10.5 Expected: 5.5 Actual: Not released
Importance Rating: ★★★★★

There are many experts and KOLs in the market, many are bearish, talking about dead cat bounces, of course, there are also many bullish influencers, and I tend to favor the latter!

Because I believe that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction and the release of liquidity have not fully manifested yet. Recently, ETFs have started to see net inflows again, and with the expectation that there will not be an interest rate cut in January, the probability of a cut is only a few percentage points. If there is favorable data, even if there is no rate cut in January, the probability of a cut in March and April will increase! Of course, we still need to look at inflation and other data before each meeting!

In fact, there has never been a market that keeps falling, nor one that keeps rising; there will always be pullbacks in between. Even in a bear market, there are rebounds. I think our main focus should be on managing our positions well, controlling risks, surviving, not blindly chasing highs, finding suitable entry points, and seizing opportunities to secure profits is the way to go!!

Although news and data cannot determine everything, they may become excuses for harvesting. Investment carries risks, and safety must be remembered!!!

A new year, a new beginning, new hopes, new vitality, new opportunities, new achievements; I wish everyone success and more wealth!

$BTC

#黄金暴跌
#白银暴雷
On December 29, 2025, the last Monday, silver crashed, and gold plummeted by 223.21 dollars, a decline of nearly 5%, with a market value shrinkage of 1.56 trillion!!

The daily decline of silver reached as high as 13.8%, with a market value reduced by 742.7 billion dollars from its peak!

Other precious metals also experienced significant declines, with lithium carbonate leading the crash!

According to COMEX, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the New York Stock Exchange, and other large institutions, incomplete statistics show a total of 1.27 million accounts liquidated, with liquidation amounts reaching hundreds of billions of dollars, of which long positions accounted for 98%.

Gold and silver traders have finally learned a lesson; they think of themselves as reputable firms, but they cannot escape the fate of being harvested!

The price drop of large and small coins is just the crash and plummet; is a stock market drop of ten centimeters or twenty centimeters normal??

Is there still the law of the king? Is there still law??

#2025即将结束
#2026加密市场展望
#加密市场观察

There are about ten days left in 2025, and for the technical people, this month's monthly line is still quite important. After about two days of completing this week's weekly line, there will be one more complete weekly line!

First of all, I declare that my personal views only represent my own opinions and do not constitute an investment basis for everyone. Everyone's investment should still be based on their own investment ideas!

According to historical data, in the past twelve years, December has seen more increases than decreases, but I feel that there is a high probability that this December will close with a positive line! That is to say, it will go up!
This month, whether it was the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut or the small days' interest rate hike, has already passed, and even if we consider the small days' interest rate hike as bearish, it currently has little impact!

At present, the market shows signs of warming up, but we should not let our guard down, as there is still a great possibility of a rebound, and we cannot rule out the possibility of further downward spikes!

However, I feel that this is a good time to buy heavily on major dips and moderately on minor dips! Ultimately, we should approach full positions! But we must also pay attention to risks!

It is said that 2026 will be a bear market, but I believe more in a phrase I heard during a live broadcast: as long as Trump is still in office, Bitcoin will break the four-year market pattern and can always be considered a bull market.
But this is only true for a small portion of coins!

Therefore, I believe that there are still opportunities in 2026, but do not be overly optimistic. Do not listen to overly optimistic prices like Bitcoin at 150,000 or 200,000, and Ethereum at 80,000. Control your entry prices well so as not to get caught at the peak!

Let's use these ten days to validate our views!
Finally, I wish everyone a bountiful harvest in the last ten days of 2025!!

#美联储降息
#机构预测概率

The three consecutive rate cuts of 2025 have finally come to an end!
Are we all looking forward to the Federal Reserve's rate cut rhythm in 2026?

The dot plot released yesterday by the Federal Reserve shows that among the 19 officials, 7 believe that there should be no rate cuts in 2026, 4 believe that a cumulative cut of 25 basis points is appropriate, 4 believe that a cumulative cut of 50 basis points is appropriate, 2 believe that a cumulative cut of 75 basis points is appropriate, 1 believes that a cumulative cut of 100 basis points is appropriate, and 1 believes that a cumulative cut of 150 basis points is appropriate.

First, the probability of a rate cut is 7:12, which means it is likely to happen!

Secondly, for the basis points of the rate cut, we calculate an average value (this calculation method is a bit nonsensical) 4*25+4*50+2*75+100+150=700/12=58.3333

In summary, the Federal Reserve is certain to cut rates next year, and it will not be less than twice!

Considering Powell's departure, I still feel that interest rates will go even lower!!

So, many institutions' so-called predictions are a bit ridiculous! I really don't understand how influential institutions can speak so carelessly; I also don't understand what their predictions are based on, or what data they use. Don't they fear losing credibility!

Leave a screenshot, and let's verify next year at this time whether they will be proven wrong!

Don't pay attention to some institutions' ridiculous predictions!
Also, don't listen to some KOLs bragging; this afternoon, a KOL claiming to be a big shot said that Bitcoin could drop to 30,000 without any problem, and I disagree with this view!

We should have our own verification and just be responsible for our own understanding!

#美联储利率决议即将公布
#美联储扩表
Important news is coming, interest rate cuts are imminent, where will the market go!
(II)(II)(II)
I think the Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut rates more than three times next year, and not just by 75 basis points!

Because Trump's recent remarks said: cutting rates is the touchstone for the position of the Federal Reserve Chairman!
The Federal Reserve Chairman appointed during his term must be dovish and supportive of rate cuts! No matter how many rate cuts happen in the first half of next year, there will definitely be more rate cuts in the second half!

He wants to reduce the government's scale of U.S. Treasury bonds and has repeatedly criticized Powell for calling for rate cuts! Rate cuts can be said to be a major event that Trump has been thinking about!

Back to the crypto market, I do not believe there will be particularly large fluctuations when this rate cut takes effect, and there will certainly not be dreams of hitting new highs, although I also look forward to it! But I trust the situation more!

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction has ended, and in fact, I would prefer to see an expansion of the balance sheet, which would result in more funds flowing out. Without sufficient funds, it is impossible to rely solely on a few institutions like Strategy and BitMine to drive the market up!

Currently, too many people are bearish. I believe you should have more faith in yourself. If you think we are already in a bear market, or that it will become even more bearish in the future, then you should liquidate or short! But if you think Bitcoin and Ethereum can still rise, you should hold on and accumulate at lower prices, waiting for a new wave of market activity!

BTC and ETH will definitely reach new highs! And I feel that the time won't be too long, the four-year bull-bear cycle may have already been broken, and the impact of the halving is not significant anymore, as the proportion of unmined BTC is already low! The altcoin season may really be over, the strong will remain strong, and the weak will be eliminated, causing you to doubt life as prices fall!

#美联储降息周期
#加密市场观察
Breaking news is coming, interest rate cuts are imminent, where will the market go!
(1)(1)
Everyone is closely watching the interest rate cut news at three o'clock on Thursday morning, in fact, the interest rate cut has basically become a reality, because the negative impact of not cutting interest rates has caused price declines that have not been recovered!

Many people feel that the interest rate cut is a foregone conclusion, what should be more concerning is Powell's speech at three thirty!
For a relatively strong Federal Reserve Chairman, a stubborn old man with half a year left in his term, I feel he won't say any dovish remarks to everyone!

Many forecasting institutions or capital are beginning to pay attention to next year's Federal Reserve dot plot, predicting the probability of several interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve!
Among them, important institutions predict that there will only be two interest rate cuts next year, of course, there are also predictions for three cuts!
Sometimes I find these forecasting institutions a bit ridiculous; such large institutions, operating a huge amount of capital, yet they speak nonsense and make wild claims!
Just look at the interest rate cut probability this December, how many large institutions have changed their tune?

I feel that, in essence, it is all for their own interests, having to go against market expectations to make some statements for everyone, finding excuses to harvest wealth! The world is bustling for profit, and the world is in turmoil for profit!

#ETH巨鲸增持
#日元加息市场下跌

The storm is not over; the crypto market's turmoil has never been as expected!

Starting from October 11, prices fell as countless ancient whales sold off, institutions dumped their holdings, liquidity became scarce, and panic ensued, until Bitcoin formed a temporary bottom on November 21, and then began to rebound. Suddenly, the Bank of Japan announced a hawkish stance! They will continue to raise interest rates, and in about ten days, the gains were completed in half a day with a second dip!

In December 2013, China’s five ministries
In September 2017, China’s seven ministries
In May 2021, China’s ten ministries
In November 2025, China’s thirteen ministries
Precision every four years, with each round of ministries increasing, every time thereafter Bitcoin will be higher!

It was just reported that 40,000 ETH from the 2015 ICO has been staked, and the “October 11 insider whale” just bought 14,066 ETH.
In the past 2 hours, a newly created address withdrew 77,385 ETH ($220 million) from Binance to the blockchain.
Address: 0x36ED68c47a007b6D896515070375b3f5AC9BC889
BitMine announced an increase of 96,798 ETH last week, bringing the total holdings to 3,726,499 ETH.

NASDAQ-listed company Massimo announced that its board has approved the inclusion of Bitcoin (BTC) into the company’s long-term treasury strategy and has begun initial purchases. The company stated it will invest no more than 10% of its total assets in BTC over the next five years.

Just now, BlackRock transferred 2,156 Bitcoins to Coinbase. It seems that the ETF is flowing out again, and the US stock market hasn't opened yet; it’s likely that this is not the bottom yet! But maybe tomorrow will be better for crypto assets!

The market has shown divergence; some are cutting losses and exiting, while others are increasing their positions!

The story of crypto assets continues...