Liz Ann Sonders Re-poster

I am very excited to be making an appearance on @SchwabNetwork today. Please tune in this morning at approximately 9:20am ET to catch my segment during #MorningTradeLive.

The July @Conferenceboard Leading Economic Index posted a +0.2% m/m increase. This positive development successfully exceeded the +0.1% est. and marks a favorable turnaround compared to the -0.1% prior reading.

Recent data indicates a pleasant decline in initial jobless claims, which dropped to 206k compared to the projected estimate of 210k and the previous count of 212k. On the other hand, continuing claims were reported at 1.799M, slightly exceeding both the expected 1.788M and the prior figure of 1.781.

When reviewing regional movements, the most notable increases were seen in KY at +0.5k, OH at +0.3k, and AK at +0.1k. Conversely, the largest declines took place in MI at -2.4k, SC at -1.2k, and CA at -1.2k.

The August Manufacturing Index from @philadelphiafed has been released, revealing a robust reading of +47.4. This figure easily surpassed the estimated +24.8 and also rose above the prior period reading of 41.4. Looking closely at the individual categories, the prices paid metric came in at +40.9, representing a drop from the previous +53.9. The new orders component registered at +30.1, compared to the prior +37.0. Additionally, shipments were recorded at +27.7, down from the earlier +33.7. Finally, the employment indicator showed a strong upward move, reaching +27.9 versus the previous +10.0.

Recent data provided by @MBAmortgage indicates that the 30-year mortgage rate held perfectly steady at 6.77%. Meanwhile, the market displayed continued softness during the week concluding on Aug. 14, as overall home purchase activity experienced a 3.4% drop compared to the numbers reported exactly one year ago.

If we exclude the COVID-19 crash, the proportion of S&P 500 equities providing dividend yields higher than 10-year Treasury yields achieved a record peak of 63.4% back in July 2016. A decade later, this metric has declined to less than 4%, representing the lowest level we have seen since May 2007.

@NDR_Research

For the first time in over twelve months, the net positions held by major speculators regarding S&P 500 futures have officially crossed over to the positive side.

When looking at Russell 2000 futures throughout the majority of 2026, major speculative traders have primarily held a net short stance. As it stands right now, their market positioning remains firmly planted deep in negative territory.

Based on the latest update from @AtlantaFed, corporate forecasts for year-ahead business #inflation held steady throughout August at +2.2%. Even though these projections remain unchanged recently, they still sit just a bit higher than the typical +2.0% average recorded prior to the pandemic.

In the current month, the @AtlantaFed incorporated a unique inquiry into its Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) questionnaire. Participating companies were asked to describe the ways they might react if they encountered an additional cost shock.

An overview of how various market sectors and indexes performed yesterday, alongside their MTD and YTD results.

A review of declines in the index alongside outperformance percentages.

The percentage of equities reaching their 4w and 52w peaks across each market sector

Based on the information provided in the Neural9 chart and table, the primary takeaway remains entirely consistent. We are simply no longer seeing uniform price movements, and this observation holds true regardless of whether you are analyzing the Mag7 or the Neural9.

An overview of how the Baskets performed, specifically highlighting March because it served as a correction month.

Graphs depicting moving average breadth

For the week ending Aug. 14, crude #oil inventories recorded their third increase in a row. Not counting the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, total stockpiles grew by 4.4M barrels, bringing the overall supply up to 428.8M barrels. Following this recent accumulation, inventory levels have now reached their highest point since May.

The Neural9 chart and table have been fully refreshed to include all recent data right up until yesterday's close.

When looking back at 2025, the cost of domestic travel continues to be exceptionally high. Travelers booking an average round-trip economy ticket in 2026 will find themselves paying nearly $100 more.

@DataArbor

During the month of July, pending home sales took a downward turn across all four regions. Leading this overall decrease was the West, which recorded a 4.7% m/m drop. Additionally, the South saw its own m/m decline of 2.2%, a notable shift given that it serves as the largest home-selling region in the nation.