Web3投研江南雨

About the AI ​​public chain tau.net (token name AGRS)

Tau
Tau is a universe built from your ideas, suggestions and knowledge. It is the first-ever decentralized blockchain social network capable of gaining consensus from its users and updating its own software in real time, allowing all users to control what the software does for them.

All in all, Tau can aggregate the ideas, suggestions and knowledge of various users, and upgrade its own code in real time, using logical artificial intelligence to bridge the gap between humans and machines.

Notice the difference? If you have recently learned about artificial intelligence and used ChatGPT, you will know that most AI uses machine learning, which relies on huge Internet data sets and makes it difficult to grasp the correct meaning and knowledge of interpersonal communication.

What about logic-based Al? It is more effective than machine learning in:

1. Explainability: Logic-based AI provides clear and transparent explanations of how decisions are made, which can be useful in certain applications, such as legal or medical diagnostics. In these application scenarios, accountability and explainability are important.

2. Predictability: Logic-based systems are deterministic, meaning that given the same input, they always produce the same output.

3. Efficiency: For simple tasks, logic-based AI can be faster than machine learning algorithms because they require no training to make decisions based on a small number of well-defined rules.

4. Adaptability: Logic-based AI can be easily modified and updated to adapt to new knowledge or environmental changes.

These advantages form Tau's moat. Artificial intelligence using logic has uniquely created a model of communication between people with machines as the mediator.

A team of PhDs and professors with expertise in artificial intelligence, logic and mathematics has been working on Tau since 2015. Founder and CEO Ohad Asor is a software developer and machine learning expert with a background in mathematics and experience at GE Healthcare.

Ethereum's new upgrade ERC-8004: Your personal AI private secretary has arrived!
🚀
In the past, playing DeFi, staking ETH, and dealing with meme coins required opening wallets, connecting to official websites, repeatedly authorizing, and switching chains, with so many steps that it drove people crazy. With ERC-8004, you just need to say: 'Help me earn the highest yield from the 10 ETH sitting idle in my wallet' or 'Recently the hottest meme coin on X, help me buy 100 dollars worth' and the AI Agent will automatically run errands in the background, execute contracts, and complete all operations while you only see the final result. Even cooler, ERC-8004 provides a universal protocol that allows different developers and users' AI secretaries to securely 'recognize each other' and collaborate. The blockchain has truly become humanized, allowing even those who do not understand technology to easily get started. The future is not about us learning blockchain, but rather AI 'rolling up' the technology for us. Ethereum is no longer just a ledger, but is about to become a super financial brain that can think and get things done. #加密货币
🧠💰

Looking at the K-line, Bitcoin's price is still below the downtrend line. Continue to short. Currently, it's a half position short.
As for how much it will drop, it will at least drop to 80,000 USDT.
In terms of the macro economy, there is a Federal Reserve interest rate decision meeting on Wednesday, no rate cuts will be made, but the market is focused on the content of the Federal Reserve Chairman's speech after the meeting, whether it hints that inflation pressures continue to exist (= the pace of rate cuts will slow down) or that inflation pressures are easing.
Also, there are quite a few U.S. stock earnings reports being released this week. I expect many positive outcomes.
The trend of the yen's exchange rate appreciation still exists. The closing of yen arbitrage trades may lead hedge funds to sell Bitcoin to repay yen loans. It is reported that hedge funds have borrowed about $380 billion in yen with high leverage. How much of that is invested in Bitcoin is unknown. But the scale is at most a few tens of billions of dollars.
If positions are to be closed, U.S. stocks and gold should also decline. Therefore, the impact of closing yen arbitrage trades on Bitcoin can be observed simultaneously with U.S. stocks and gold.

#比特币

#比特币 How to view the trend of Bitcoin currently?
The high point formed on January 5 near 94800 is the support line.
The broken high point becomes the support line for the pullback, which is basic knowledge of technical analysis.
The trading volume on January 13 and 14 was also quite high, at a qualified level.
The current pullback is still relatively mild.
Overall, the upward trend has not been broken.
In terms of the external environment, the US stock market is maintaining an upward trend due to TSMC's positive performance, and the state of interest rate cuts and monetary easing of the dollar is also favorable for Bitcoin.
Conclusion: Go long on Bitcoin with half a position and see where it stands at the end of the month.

Now, should we go long or short on Bitcoin?

[From the perspective of candlestick analysis]
The chart below shows Bitcoin's 4-hour candlestick chart. The current structure is particularly simple.
Around $94,800 is the resistance level above. Around $83,700 is the support level below.
Currently, it's a classic range-bound state, a pattern that could be used as a textbook example in technical analysis.
According to the basic principles of trading based on candlesticks, avoid random predictions and follow the trend.
Therefore, avoid heavy positions in either long or short. Small positions for short-term trades are acceptable.
Moreover, from January 3rd to now, it has been a downtrend. So, for short-term intraday trading, shorting is preferred.
However, from a longer time frame perspective, Bitcoin has fallen from $126,000 and has been ranging for one and a half months. If it were a downtrend, it wouldn't have been ranging for so long in the middle. Thus, $80,000 is a diamond bottom. From a long-term investment standpoint, buying Bitcoin now is appropriate.

[From the macroeconomic perspective]
Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and the initiation of quantitative easing. Investment funds are allocating new annual capital into equities, with some funds flowing into Bitcoin ETFs. JPMorgan has applied for a cryptocurrency fund.

[Conclusion]
For short-term trading, avoid heavy long or short positions. For long-term investment with low leverage, buying and holding is acceptable.
#比特币 $BTC

🚀 AI + Crypto: From Narrative Hype to the Paradigm Shift of 'Agentic Finance'
Recently delved into the conversations among top investors at the Open AGI Summit. If 2023 was the 'packaging year' for the fusion of AI and crypto, then 2025-2026 will be the moment when 'Agentic Finance' truly explodes.
Here are 5 core insights you must pay attention to:
1️⃣ From Compute to Applications: Investment focus has shifted from pure decentralized compute (GPU networks) to AI-driven DeFi protocols that generate real revenue.
2️⃣ AI Agents' 'Bank Accounts': Cryptocurrency is the only natural settlement method for AI agents. In the future, thousands of agents will autonomously conduct macro hedging and liquidity mining on-chain 24/7.
3️⃣ 'Behavioral Safeguards' Are Crucial: To prevent AI hallucinations from causing catastrophic losses, constrained DeFi Vaults (vaults) are becoming a necessary safety net for institutional entry.
4️⃣ Data Is the Next Battleground: As synthetic data hits its ceiling, the ability to acquire private, high-quality market insight data through token incentives will be key to differentiating AI models.
5️⃣ The Long March Toward Compliance: Despite technological advancement, 'qualified custody' and clear legal liability remain the final hurdles for large institutions (e.g., Franklin Templeton) to enter.

💡 Summary: We are witnessing AI becoming the 'labor force' of the crypto world, while crypto technology becomes the 'sovereign foundation' for AI.
#区块链

By the end of January 2026, Bitcoin is very likely to rise to $100,000.
[Analysis from the K-line perspective]
Look at the chart below.
From November 21 to December 10, 2025, is the first wave.
From December 10 to December 19 is the second wave.
The third wave starts on December 19, and we are currently still in the third wave. The third wave is expected to reach $100,000.
Then, below $100,000, there will be a period of consolidation, which is the fourth wave.
After that, breaking through $100,000 is the fifth wave.
When it reaches the fifth wave, shorting can be considered.
[Analysis from the capital perspective]
At the beginning of each year, large investment institutions such as pension funds and insurance companies will allocate new funds for the year into the stock market. Some of this capital will flow into Bitcoin ETFs.
Before the end of the year, in order to save on taxes, Americans will sell losing positions to offset other profitable positions. Many Americans sell their losing Bitcoin ETF positions. Then, at the beginning of the new year, one can expect that Americans who sold Bitcoin to save on taxes will buy back in.
The Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in 2026, initiating quantitative easing. Based on this expectation, large funds will rush to buy in.

However, breaking through the historical high of $126,200 is not that easy. #比特币 $BTC

Bitcoin encounters resistance near 89200. Whether it can break through depends on today's opening trends in the U.S. stock market. I estimate there is an 80% probability that Bitcoin will break upwards. Looking at the candlestick chart, the funds driving the market are slowly pushing the price up to the resistance level, maintaining the price without letting it fall. This time I don't think a door will be drawn. I have taken a relatively small long position, and if the U.S. stock market opens optimistically, I will increase my position. #比特币

#比特币 Yesterday, the Nasdaq opened, Bitcoin was strong, bought in. Originally, there was quite a profit, didn't sell. Suddenly it dropped sharply, quickly sold, profit decreased by 80%. Then it rose again.

#比特币 Analysis of the Current Situation of Bitcoin

️ Core Resistance and Demand Exhaustion
Bitcoin's price has stagnated around the $90,000 mark, primarily hindered by a shift in actual demand to negative, increased selling pressure from American investors, and continuous outflows of institutional funds (with $782 million exiting the spot Bitcoin ETF last week). Data from Capriole Investments indicates that the actual demand indicator for Bitcoin has dropped to its lowest point since October (-3,491 BTC), and the Coinbase premium index has also fallen to -0.08, showing a depletion of buying power in the market.

Key Breakthroughs and Technical Signals
To trigger a new market trend for the coming year, two core conditions must be met: first, the actual purchasing power of American investors needs to recover along with the inflow of funds into the spot ETF; second, the price must effectively break through the $90,000 resistance level. On the technical front, the 8-hour chart shows that $90,000 coincides with the upper trendline of a descending wedge; if a breakout is successful, it could open a bullish channel targeting $122,000. Additionally, if the closing price in December exceeds $90,360, the monthly chart will form a bullish divergence, indicating a potential initiation of a major market trend in mid-2026.

️ Risks and Outlook
In the short term, Bitcoin may continue to fluctuate within a range, waiting for a rise in volatility or the formation of a new trend. The current price has decreased by 6.6% since the beginning of the year, and if it fails to recover, it will face the risk of experiencing its first annual closing decline after the halving.

Summary: $90,000 is the dividing line between bulls and bears; we must patiently await the recovery of American demand and a reversal in fund flows to confirm the signal for the initiation of the 2026 market.

#比特币 Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin will reach $750,000 by 2027

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes recently made a bold prediction that Bitcoin will soar to $750,000 by 2027. The core logic of this astonishing prophecy lies in the game between global central bank monetary policies and the scarcity of Bitcoin.

1. Macro Logic: The Race to Print Money
Hayes believes that global central banks (including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, etc.) have embarked on an unprecedented easing cycle to combat economic weakness. The Federal Reserve's upcoming RMP plan (bond purchase program) will inject massive liquidity into the market every month. He points out that this money will not enter the real economy but will flood into financial markets in search of a "safe haven."

2. Scarcity and "Being Deflationary"
Against the backdrop of fiat currencies depreciating due to unlimited supply, Bitcoin's scarcity, which has a fixed total supply cap of 21 million coins, will become extremely prominent. The accelerated positioning by institutions (such as Grayscale and MicroStrategy) has led to a large amount of Bitcoin being locked up long-term, coupled with approximately 4 million coins that have permanently disappeared due to lost private keys, resulting in a sharp reduction in the actual circulating supply of Bitcoin, creating a "being deflationary" effect.

3. Supply and Demand Imbalance Pushing Prices Up
Hayes simplifies this into a mathematical model: when the Federal Reserve injects massive funds every month chasing an asset with an ever-decreasing supply (less than 10 million coins), an extreme imbalance in supply and demand will occur. This enormous gap in supply and demand is seen as a key driver for the soaring price of Bitcoin.

4. Risks and Recommendations
Despite facing risks from tightening regulations, Hayes believes this actually benefits large institutions entering the market. For investors, he suggests adopting a "dollar-cost averaging + grid" strategy to participate, which avoids missing out while controlling risks. His core viewpoint is: "When central banks start printing money, you'd better have something they can't print out." $BTC

From the weekly K-line of Bitcoin, 87,000 USDT is currently the price center of Bitcoin, forming a contracting triangle. Moreover, after a significant drop, it is currently in consolidation.
From the perspective of capital, new investment funds will flow into the US stock market in the new year, and a portion of that capital will also buy Bitcoin ETFs.
Therefore, it is highly probable that there will be an increase until mid-January. #比特币 $BTC

The time for the expiration of the $23 billion BTC options is at 16:00 Beijing time on 12/26. Between 16:00, there was a surge.
Therefore, the rise during the day on 12/26 was driven by option market makers, not by long-term investors buying.
So, it is reasonable to speculate that the price will fall back.
As a result, when the US stock market opened, it indeed dropped.
After the option market makers pushed the price up, they maintained the high level until 22:30 Beijing time. Then, after the US stock market opened, market liquidity increased, and sellers took the opportunity to close their long positions.
It can be estimated that 87,000 US dollars is currently the price center of Bitcoin. This can also be seen from the daily chart of Bitcoin over the past month. #比特币 $BTC

I estimate that BTC will rise next, but I dare not go long. I will wait for a rise of around 500U and look for an opportunity to short.

#比特币 $BTC The manipulation methods of big capital are a bit rough. Last night, there were multiple short sales and multiple stop losses. At that time, it felt like the trend was quite strong, but then there was another crash. A short-term rise to unload.

#比特币 $ICP ICP is rising a bit too fast. Waiting for an opportunity to short.

#比特币 $BTC Currently, there is no position in hand, waiting for the Nasdaq to open. The Bitcoin K-line pattern is stagnating at a relatively high position, showing strong momentum. The Nasdaq index has a higher probability of continuing yesterday's strength today. Tonight, Bitcoin is likely to rise.

#比特币 $BTC 15 minutes ago, heavily shorted BTC, with a target closing price around $90,000. Am I wrong in my assessment?

#比特币 $BTC Nasdaq opened down, seizing the perfect opportunity to short Bitcoin heavily, thinking I could earn back half a year's salary, who would have thought there would be such a trend. The dog stock harms people.