Asen森-美股Alpha

$OPENAI $ANTHROPIC This wave of U.S. AI stocks is a double-edged sword: it both “drains” capital and lifts valuations, requiring both left and right brain coordination.

Buy priority: OpenAI first, Anthropic second.

Upside and flexibility: Anthropic has greater potential. Its enterprise-AI commercialization growth and IPO sentiment catalysts are more concentrated, making it easier to run out a ~20% level move in the short term.

Current price odds: OpenAI is better. At $1,267, it corresponds to a $1.234 trillion valuation, which is already cheaper than Anthropic—leaving more room for a re-rating toward the $1.5T to $1.8T range.

I’m speechless at this order I placed. It would’ve been better if they checked it more carefully.$ANTHROPIC

$CATI within the same minute: 20% quick buys and sells, 😂 60% take-profit, 40% gets stopped out—this is exactly being targeted.

$TUT This weekend’s fake-market action is pretty lively—another 12R, but unfortunately the live trade was blocked by the security gate.

$AAPL Now it is suitable to hedge with the semiconductor sector, and it is also suitable for a long-term hold. If the physical AI expectations are released, or if the probability of becoming the global largest market-cap company increases #美股收盘涨跌不一英伟达提振道指

$LITE How many months should optical communication be enough to speculate before you can’t hold on to it 😂

More important than whether bulls or bears: This week’s US stock trading strategy—view the current market in three layers:

1. Bottom layer: The US stock market has entered a phase of high valuation, high yield, followed by highly differentiated performance, high sensitivity, and high volatility.
2. Middle layer: Market confidence is insufficient. People hesitate, doubt, and therefore don’t dare to launch a full attack—but they also aren’t willing to leave the core main theme.
3. Surface layer: Macroeconomic and external information has an increasing impact on market fluctuations. Especially now facing:
Japanese yen / carry trade
US Treasury yields
US dollar
AI earnings reports and regulation
geopolitics and commodities
crypto leveraged funds
In a low-confidence phase, the market becomes overly sensitive to external variables, so prices naturally show high volatility.

This week’s core strategy: Don’t chase upward moves. Macro and external variables determine direction; internal dissemination determines win rate.

Rebound quality is not high, and the breadth of the rally is weak—so take shorts on the rebound.
Typical signals: The index rises but SOXX/NVDA/QQQ don’t follow; HYG is not strong; BTC/ETH are weak; VIX does not fall.

If there are no new macro/external bearish catalysts, then when a pullback is met with support, go long.
Typical signals: yields do not spike higher, the dollar does not sharply strengthen, USDJPY no longer fluctuates dramatically, HYG stays stable, and the index’s pullback does not break key support.#美伊谈判将启动

US stocks $SNDK $SKHY $MU fell again?!

Let me talk about my analysis after looking at the US stock market.

I see this decline as profit-taking after the AI sector’s oversold, rapid rebound (the biggest drop comes from the rebound storage segment—i.e., the most severe retracement).
On top of that, there’s the “Black Friday” position adjustment, the conflict between Iran and the US, and the lure created by rising predictions of interest-rate hikes due to internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve.
Finally, the psychological shadow from being oversold hasn’t been erased, so the market is unusually sensitive.

My main judgment: in the short term, compared with a direct trend reversal, the probability of continuing to slide is still there—but the odds of first consolidating and bottoming out, or staging a rebound, have clearly increased. Watch the key levels for a confirmation of the sell-off ending. #苹果芯片短缺拖累销售预期

Once again, boost by 4.4-6.6 percentage points!
The end of trading is mathematics—good luck may be good for a while, and bad luck may be bad for a day, but only mathematics never lies! #美股开盘走高存储股反弹

$SNDK Machines really are, with one’s ears not hearing the affairs outside the window.

There’s no logic—Hong Kong stocks always just follow.$ZHIPU

I saw someone shouting to “pick the bottom” in the plaza at $SKHYNIX $SNDK $MU — but I’m just afraid.

On the one hand, it shows there are quite a lot of people trapped in losses;
on the other hand, from a small perspective we can see a bigger picture: this round of deleveraging, driven by macro pressure and concerns about AI capital expenditures, hasn’t run its course yet.

So in terms of operations, it’s still mainly about shorting the bounce, and don’t let your position size affect your judgment.#Meta财报不及预期股价跌10%

$MU 再测780，甚至刺破 770 的概率上升。

A recent plunge in AI stocks has triggered margin pressure, with Wall Street banks requiring hedge funds to add collateral.

The key point isn’t that AI stocks are falling—it’s that AI trading has moved from an earnings/valuation selloff into a leverage-deleveraging / passive selling phase.

This isn’t a normal pullback; the leverage chain has been triggered.

The logic chain is: AI stocks decline
fund NAV falls, volatility rises
the prime broker increases margin / demands additional collateral
funds are forced to reduce leverage
sell the most crowded, most profitable, and most liquid positions
AI / semiconductors continue to fall
trigger even more margin pressure

This is the typical de-grossing / deleveraging cascade.

So in the short term, fundamentals—good or bad—will temporarily stop mattering.
SK hynix’s earnings are strong, yet it’s still falling for this reason: the market isn’t re-pricing performance right now; it’s managing position risk.#韩国KOSPI暴跌11%因中国DUV威胁

Market is weak; today we have 6 orders, including two 12R. $RE $BANK

Don’t rush to treat BTC’s resilience around the 65K level as a sign that risk-on is back.

What I care more about today is another mismatch: oil prices have already hit the brakes, but the crypto market hasn’t fully acknowledged it yet.

Brent is around $100, 10Y U.S. Treasuries are hovering near 4.70%, and the Nasdaq fell more than 2% last night. Taken together, these three signals aren’t just about a single commodity turning bearish—they’re about resetting the pricing for overvalued, high-beta assets.

That’s why BTC is dropping less than ETH and SOL. I won’t interpret that as a sign of strong offensive momentum; it’s more like capital is first hiding in low-beta core assets. The real confirmation isn’t that BTC immediately rebounds, but that oil falls back below $100, tech stocks stop declining, and ETH/SOL no longer keep underperforming BTC.

In one sentence: as long as oil doesn’t back off, risk-on is like pressing the accelerator with the handbrake still on.
#BTC #原油 #U.S. stocks

The market really is too bad—today we won all 4 orders.$AKE $BANK

$CL Oil prices and US Treasuries are rising again｜My take on the AI stocks/MU trend

1、Oil is the main storyline. Higher oil prices create short-term pressure on inflation expectations and risk assets. It also shows the market doesn’t think a ceasefire will happen so quickly, so the oil rally has short-term support—though it’s bearish.
2、Before the July FOMC, oil prices have been rising, pushing up inflation risks and increasing the probability of a more hawkish stance. In a way consistent with the Warch style, they will most likely be hawkish—bearish for growth stock valuations. If US Treasury yields and the US dollar index rise at the same time, it would enter a strong bearish chain.
3、SMH/SOXX are still below the MA20, and semiconductors overall are not in a strong trend. MU/Hynix, etc., haven’t broken through key resistance levels either, indicating the market is currently more like consolidation rather than a strong push by capital—so the bias is weak.

In the near term, the overall AI sector has repaired and rebounded. When it pulls back, there’s capital stepping in to absorb it. Despite the bearish factors, prices haven’t fallen sharply, and fundamentals not only haven’t worsened—they’ve actually strengthened. This suggests capital has become more selective, but still buys assets that can deliver on the original thesis. That’s also why $NVDA and AMD have been relatively stronger.

For trading: in the short term, the focus is mainly on being range-bearish and trading within the range. At the same time, keep an eye on whether there is high-volume breakout at key levels and changes in geopolitical risk.

For $MU :
980-1000: can be used as a trial short zone
Best case is to short if it can’t break up and hold between 995-1000
Stop loss: watch 1000-1010 if it breaks out with volume and holds steady
Downside targets first: 950-960
Then: 920-930
Around 900 is a strong support—watching/monitoring zone #原油期货涨超4%

AI Capex isn’t always a good thing when bigger—at least not today.

My take is simple: when oil prices and U.S. Treasuries yields both rise together, the market’s first reaction to AI spending will shift from a “growth story” to “pressure to deliver.”

The counterevidence is clear: if this were purely positive, Alphabet wouldn’t have fallen nearly 5% after hours after raising capital expenditures, and the Nasdaq shouldn’t keep underperforming the S&P. Also, Brent is already close to 96, and the 10Y yield is still hovering around 4.66%.

So today, I won’t directly translate the AI infrastructure boom into a risk-on move. You can keep buying the compute supply chain, but be more selective: who can turn Capex into cash flow deserves to keep the valuations.

In one sentence: the AI story is still there, but the market has started to collect the homework.

Do you think this round of AI Capex will keep fueling the fire, or start weeding people out?
#AI #BTC #US stock

I’ll keep this line short today: oil prices aren’t just something for the commodities market to deal with—they’re repricing for $BTC and AI stocks.

WTI has already moved above 85, 10Y U.S. Treasuries are hovering around 4.64%, and the dollar hasn’t eased; more importantly, Polymarket is only giving a 1% chance that the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by the end of the month.

This shows the money isn’t just flowing into pure hedges—it’s asking a colder question: if energy inflation comes back, whose valuation can still hold up?

So I’m not automatically translating a BTC rebound and the AI earnings window straight into “risk-on.” If oil doesn’t pull back and Treasuries don’t ease, every high-beta surge has to be treated as a stress test first.

In one sentence: oil prices are today’s brake, not background noise.
#BTC #原油 #AI