笔谈-逻辑交易
✨围脖：笔谈逻辑 ✨交易逻辑：所有波动皆因果,不信直觉，只信逻辑 | 9年实战沉淀，专注盈亏比5：2的确定性趋势！币安8折手续费注册邀请码：FKD3E9JB
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60,000 mark's bloody turnover, have you been cleared by the market makers' 'liquidity hunting'?
Logic is painful, while emotions are cheap.
1. Macroeconomic: Dropping from 120,000 to 60,000, this is called 'paradigm reset'
(Daily analysis)
From the peak of $124,000$ at the end of 2025 to now, this is not just a pullback, but a forced clearing of the descending channel.
Pay attention to that massive red bar (Volume) at the daily bottom. Such a scale of volume indicates that 'panic selling (Capitulation)' has already occurred. Retail stop-loss orders are the market makers' entry tickets. If you handed over your chips at that point, you are the negative variable in this 'social experiment'.
2. Microeconomic: Is 68,000 a lifeline or bait for a 'dead cat bounce'?
(4-hour analysis:)
V-shaped trap: The price quickly pulled back from 60,000, leaving a long lower shadow. This indeed indicates bullish intervention, but don’t celebrate too early. Currently, it is in a narrow consolidation between $68,000 - 71,000$, essentially 'digesting the trapped positions'.
Warning: The current rebound volume is far less than the crash volume. A shrinking increase must be unusual.
3. Lifeline: This is the only logical anchor point you need to remember
Key position type price range writing logic (Logic) Lifeline $60,000 psychological bottom. Once it breaks, the market will seek $55k$ or even deeper black holes.
Short-term support $66,500 observation point. If this level is not broken, the rebound logic persists. Balance center $69,300, a 'meat grinder' for longs and shorts. Strong resistance zone $72k - 75k$ reversal determination area. Only if we break out here can we talk about 80,000.
$BTC 4. Practical response: $RR > 2.0 decision model
1. Aggressive logic (Plan A):
Premise: Backtest $66,500$ with shrinking volume and stabilize.
Entry: $67,000$ / Stop-loss: $60,000$ / Target: $80,000$.
Profit-loss ratio ($RR$): $1.85 (acceptable, but requires light positions).
2. Conservative logic (Plan B):
Premise: Price hits $72,000$ and faces resistance.
Entry (short): $71,500$ / Stop-loss: $75,000$ / Target: $62,000$.
Profit-loss ratio ($RR$): $2.7. This is the logical hunting opportunity we are waiting for.
Writing note:
In this market, emotions are cheap, while logic is gold. If you are still crying and shouting about yesterday's liquidation, please unfollow me; if you want to know where the next harvest will occur, please stay. $BTC
Logic is painful, while emotions are cheap.
1. Macroeconomic: Dropping from 120,000 to 60,000, this is called 'paradigm reset'
(Daily analysis)
From the peak of $124,000$ at the end of 2025 to now, this is not just a pullback, but a forced clearing of the descending channel.
Pay attention to that massive red bar (Volume) at the daily bottom. Such a scale of volume indicates that 'panic selling (Capitulation)' has already occurred. Retail stop-loss orders are the market makers' entry tickets. If you handed over your chips at that point, you are the negative variable in this 'social experiment'.
2. Microeconomic: Is 68,000 a lifeline or bait for a 'dead cat bounce'?
(4-hour analysis:)
V-shaped trap: The price quickly pulled back from 60,000, leaving a long lower shadow. This indeed indicates bullish intervention, but don’t celebrate too early. Currently, it is in a narrow consolidation between $68,000 - 71,000$, essentially 'digesting the trapped positions'.
Warning: The current rebound volume is far less than the crash volume. A shrinking increase must be unusual.
3. Lifeline: This is the only logical anchor point you need to remember
Key position type price range writing logic (Logic) Lifeline $60,000 psychological bottom. Once it breaks, the market will seek $55k$ or even deeper black holes.
Short-term support $66,500 observation point. If this level is not broken, the rebound logic persists. Balance center $69,300, a 'meat grinder' for longs and shorts. Strong resistance zone $72k - 75k$ reversal determination area. Only if we break out here can we talk about 80,000.
$BTC 4. Practical response: $RR > 2.0 decision model
1. Aggressive logic (Plan A):
Premise: Backtest $66,500$ with shrinking volume and stabilize.
Entry: $67,000$ / Stop-loss: $60,000$ / Target: $80,000$.
Profit-loss ratio ($RR$): $1.85 (acceptable, but requires light positions).
2. Conservative logic (Plan B):
Premise: Price hits $72,000$ and faces resistance.
Entry (short): $71,500$ / Stop-loss: $75,000$ / Target: $62,000$.
Profit-loss ratio ($RR$): $2.7. This is the logical hunting opportunity we are waiting for.
Writing note:
In this market, emotions are cheap, while logic is gold. If you are still crying and shouting about yesterday's liquidation, please unfollow me; if you want to know where the next harvest will occur, please stay. $BTC
Experimental Review: The Hunt and Rebirth at the $60,000 Threshold, Logic Has Never Been Absent
Introduction: Admitting mistakes is the first step of logical trading. Yesterday, the market's decline exceeded the speed at which I posted, and the $60,000 threshold was instantly breached. But this is precisely the most exciting part of the 'social experiment': how does logic capture that glimmer of hope when everyone's intuition points towards zero?
1. Macroeconomic Game Logic: Has the 'pressure test' of the Warsh effect been completed?
The plunge in early February 2026 was essentially the global market's response to Kevin Warsh's appointment as Federal Reserve Chair, leading to a **'liquidity freeze expectation'**.
1. Macroeconomic Game Logic: Has the 'pressure test' of the Warsh effect been completed?
The plunge in early February 2026 was essentially the global market's response to Kevin Warsh's appointment as Federal Reserve Chair, leading to a **'liquidity freeze expectation'**.
$ETH
The current situation is more severe than yesterday: the $2,000 integer level has been broken, and the market has reached a deeper Fibonacci extension support level.
1. Trend Analysis
1. Macro Pattern: Bottom-seeking after the breakdown (daily 1D)
Support Confirmation: After the price broke below $2,000, it precisely found signs of a bottom near the Fibonacci extension level 2.618 (approximately $1,753.5), with a minimum touching $1,741.8. This is a typical 'volume breakout' process. Although the current daily bullish candlestick (in a rebound) looks strong, it is essentially a technical retracement after the drop from $2,800.
Trading Volume: The trading volume at the bottom has increased sharply, indicating strong buying (or short covering) near $1,750, temporarily confirming a short-term bottom.
2. Micro Details: Start of the oversold rebound (4-hour 4H)
Resistance Conversion: The original support level of $2,107 has now turned into strong resistance.
Rebound Slope: A strong bullish candlestick has appeared at the 4H level, recovering some lost ground, and the current price is near $1,883.
Key Gap: There is still room for the price to reach the nearest resistance level above (the psychological level of $2,000), which means the rebound has not yet ended, but momentum may weaken as it approaches $2,000.
2. Trading Ideas
The current market is in the 'oversold repair after the breakdown' stage, with the probability distribution as follows:
1. Plan One: Bet on a pullback to $2,000 (65%)
Logic: The support at 2.618 ($1,753) is currently very solid, and there is an instinctive demand in the market to retest the 'break point' (i.e., the $2,000 - $2,100 area).
Action: If the price stabilizes near $1,820 after a pullback, consider entering a long position with a light position.
Target: First target $2,000, second target $2,100.
Stop Loss: Strictly set below $1,740.
2. Plan Two: Rebound meets resistance and tests the bottom again (25%)
Logic: The macro trend remains extremely bearish. If the rebound cannot effectively break through $2,100 with volume, it indicates that this is just a 'dead cat bounce.'
Action: Observe whether a long upper shadow or engulfing pattern appears at the 4H level near $2,100; if so, it presents an excellent high short opportunity.
Target: Look back at $1,740 again, or even aim for the final low of $1,385.7.
3. Plan Three: Narrow range consolidation (10%)
The market enters a long period of oscillation between $1,750 - $1,950 to digest the previous significant decline. $ETH
The current situation is more severe than yesterday: the $2,000 integer level has been broken, and the market has reached a deeper Fibonacci extension support level.
1. Trend Analysis
1. Macro Pattern: Bottom-seeking after the breakdown (daily 1D)
Support Confirmation: After the price broke below $2,000, it precisely found signs of a bottom near the Fibonacci extension level 2.618 (approximately $1,753.5), with a minimum touching $1,741.8. This is a typical 'volume breakout' process. Although the current daily bullish candlestick (in a rebound) looks strong, it is essentially a technical retracement after the drop from $2,800.
Trading Volume: The trading volume at the bottom has increased sharply, indicating strong buying (or short covering) near $1,750, temporarily confirming a short-term bottom.
2. Micro Details: Start of the oversold rebound (4-hour 4H)
Resistance Conversion: The original support level of $2,107 has now turned into strong resistance.
Rebound Slope: A strong bullish candlestick has appeared at the 4H level, recovering some lost ground, and the current price is near $1,883.
Key Gap: There is still room for the price to reach the nearest resistance level above (the psychological level of $2,000), which means the rebound has not yet ended, but momentum may weaken as it approaches $2,000.
2. Trading Ideas
The current market is in the 'oversold repair after the breakdown' stage, with the probability distribution as follows:
1. Plan One: Bet on a pullback to $2,000 (65%)
Logic: The support at 2.618 ($1,753) is currently very solid, and there is an instinctive demand in the market to retest the 'break point' (i.e., the $2,000 - $2,100 area).
Action: If the price stabilizes near $1,820 after a pullback, consider entering a long position with a light position.
Target: First target $2,000, second target $2,100.
Stop Loss: Strictly set below $1,740.
2. Plan Two: Rebound meets resistance and tests the bottom again (25%)
Logic: The macro trend remains extremely bearish. If the rebound cannot effectively break through $2,100 with volume, it indicates that this is just a 'dead cat bounce.'
Action: Observe whether a long upper shadow or engulfing pattern appears at the 4H level near $2,100; if so, it presents an excellent high short opportunity.
Target: Look back at $1,740 again, or even aim for the final low of $1,385.7.
3. Plan Three: Narrow range consolidation (10%)
The market enters a long period of oscillation between $1,750 - $1,950 to digest the previous significant decline. $ETH
$60,000 Precise Settlement! After the dramatic drop, has the bottom truly emerged?
Last night, this wave of $60,000 "time bomb" was precisely triggered. How many brothers lost their positions again?
1. Who is "swallowing" chips at the $60,000 level?
Precise timing: The price is just right, hitting the $60,000.00 psychological bottom.
Huge volume signal: The 4-hour chart recorded the highest volume of the entire price segment. This is not retail investors buying; this is a moment where bullish liquidation orders were instantly "purchased" by institutions.
Golden needle probing the bottom: The daily line has formed a long lower shadow (needle), and the momentum of the short-term one-sided plunge has temporarily been released.
2. Is the next move a "dead cat bounce" or a "reversal"?
Don’t get overly excited just because of an 8% rebound. After a serious illness, the market needs a "recovery period":
(1) Scenario A (55%): Wide fluctuations. Repeatedly wash positions between $62,000 - $68,000, digesting the pressure from trapped positions above.
(2) Scenario B (30%): Second bottom test. The main force is highly likely to retest around $61,500 to check the firmness of the bottom.
(3) Scenario C (10%): Continuation of the main decline. Unless it breaks 60,000 with increased volume, the daily target of $52,324 will not be activated for now.
3. Advice from veterans:
Bears: The fish body has been eaten, many spikes on the fish tail, don’t stubbornly fight around 60,000.
Bulls: Don't catch falling knives blindly; waiting for the "second test without breaking" is the safest entry point on the right side.$BTC
Last night, this wave of $60,000 "time bomb" was precisely triggered. How many brothers lost their positions again?
1. Who is "swallowing" chips at the $60,000 level?
Precise timing: The price is just right, hitting the $60,000.00 psychological bottom.
Huge volume signal: The 4-hour chart recorded the highest volume of the entire price segment. This is not retail investors buying; this is a moment where bullish liquidation orders were instantly "purchased" by institutions.
Golden needle probing the bottom: The daily line has formed a long lower shadow (needle), and the momentum of the short-term one-sided plunge has temporarily been released.
2. Is the next move a "dead cat bounce" or a "reversal"?
Don’t get overly excited just because of an 8% rebound. After a serious illness, the market needs a "recovery period":
(1) Scenario A (55%): Wide fluctuations. Repeatedly wash positions between $62,000 - $68,000, digesting the pressure from trapped positions above.
(2) Scenario B (30%): Second bottom test. The main force is highly likely to retest around $61,500 to check the firmness of the bottom.
(3) Scenario C (10%): Continuation of the main decline. Unless it breaks 60,000 with increased volume, the daily target of $52,324 will not be activated for now.
3. Advice from veterans:
Bears: The fish body has been eaten, many spikes on the fish tail, don’t stubbornly fight around 60,000.
Bulls: Don't catch falling knives blindly; waiting for the "second test without breaking" is the safest entry point on the right side.$BTC
Basically, the three trends have arrived, and tonight is probably when the recent downtrend will end.
BTC, Unbearable Orders
From the current 1 hour (1H), 4 hours (4H), and daily (1D) trends, the market is in a very clear main downtrend phase.
1. Trend Status: Bears Take Over, Structural Break
Daily Level (1D): A typical Elliott Wave top reversal pattern. The price has completed five waves of upward movement (peak around $ 126,199), and is currently in a large-scale ABC corrective wave. Current Wave: We are currently in the downward process of wave (c). According to the daily chart's trend, the first key target for wave (c) is around 69,000 at Fibonacci 0.618 (will touch), with the final target being 52,000 (not current), and currently 73,200 is the most direct resistance level.
2. Trading Thoughts
Since the current price is hovering near the recent low around 70,140, directly chasing the market price down (shorting) has poor risk-reward. The upcoming trends are mainly these:
1. Inertia Downward (testing 70k) $70,000 - $70,140, the current price is just a step away from the intraday low, and the 1H rebound volume (1.09K) is severely insufficient. Probability 90%.
2. Structural Retracement (Fib 0.618) $69,000 - $69,6757, the market is currently pressured by expectations of the Federal Reserve's incoming chairman Kevin Warsh's tapering, and the 1D level 0.618 has strong attraction. Probability about 75%. This part needs to watch for spikes and increased volume for a potential upward move.
3. Liquidation Level Collapse (testing $65k) $65,000 - $66,900, below $70k there exists a dense long liquidation cluster. Once triggered, the price will enter a liquidity vacuum. Probability about 60%. If it breaks below 69,000, the liquidation pressure will be significant; orders can be placed in this range.
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
From the current 1 hour (1H), 4 hours (4H), and daily (1D) trends, the market is in a very clear main downtrend phase.
1. Trend Status: Bears Take Over, Structural Break
Daily Level (1D): A typical Elliott Wave top reversal pattern. The price has completed five waves of upward movement (peak around $ 126,199), and is currently in a large-scale ABC corrective wave. Current Wave: We are currently in the downward process of wave (c). According to the daily chart's trend, the first key target for wave (c) is around 69,000 at Fibonacci 0.618 (will touch), with the final target being 52,000 (not current), and currently 73,200 is the most direct resistance level.
2. Trading Thoughts
Since the current price is hovering near the recent low around 70,140, directly chasing the market price down (shorting) has poor risk-reward. The upcoming trends are mainly these:
1. Inertia Downward (testing 70k) $70,000 - $70,140, the current price is just a step away from the intraday low, and the 1H rebound volume (1.09K) is severely insufficient. Probability 90%.
2. Structural Retracement (Fib 0.618) $69,000 - $69,6757, the market is currently pressured by expectations of the Federal Reserve's incoming chairman Kevin Warsh's tapering, and the 1D level 0.618 has strong attraction. Probability about 75%. This part needs to watch for spikes and increased volume for a potential upward move.
3. Liquidation Level Collapse (testing $65k) $65,000 - $66,900, below $70k there exists a dense long liquidation cluster. Once triggered, the price will enter a liquidity vacuum. Probability about 60%. If it breaks below 69,000, the liquidation pressure will be significant; orders can be placed in this range.
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
Basically, it has reached the Fibonacci 0.618 position, but the overall volume has not been released, so we can only continue to watch.
BTC, Unbearable Orders
From the current 1 hour (1H), 4 hours (4H), and daily (1D) trends, the market is in a very clear main downtrend phase.
1. Trend Status: Bears Take Over, Structural Break
Daily Level (1D): A typical Elliott Wave top reversal pattern. The price has completed five waves of upward movement (peak around $ 126,199), and is currently in a large-scale ABC corrective wave. Current Wave: We are currently in the downward process of wave (c). According to the daily chart's trend, the first key target for wave (c) is around 69,000 at Fibonacci 0.618 (will touch), with the final target being 52,000 (not current), and currently 73,200 is the most direct resistance level.
2. Trading Thoughts
Since the current price is hovering near the recent low around 70,140, directly chasing the market price down (shorting) has poor risk-reward. The upcoming trends are mainly these:
1. Inertia Downward (testing 70k) $70,000 - $70,140, the current price is just a step away from the intraday low, and the 1H rebound volume (1.09K) is severely insufficient. Probability 90%.
2. Structural Retracement (Fib 0.618) $69,000 - $69,6757, the market is currently pressured by expectations of the Federal Reserve's incoming chairman Kevin Warsh's tapering, and the 1D level 0.618 has strong attraction. Probability about 75%. This part needs to watch for spikes and increased volume for a potential upward move.
3. Liquidation Level Collapse (testing $65k) $65,000 - $66,900, below $70k there exists a dense long liquidation cluster. Once triggered, the price will enter a liquidity vacuum. Probability about 60%. If it breaks below 69,000, the liquidation pressure will be significant; orders can be placed in this range.
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
From the current 1 hour (1H), 4 hours (4H), and daily (1D) trends, the market is in a very clear main downtrend phase.
1. Trend Status: Bears Take Over, Structural Break
Daily Level (1D): A typical Elliott Wave top reversal pattern. The price has completed five waves of upward movement (peak around $ 126,199), and is currently in a large-scale ABC corrective wave. Current Wave: We are currently in the downward process of wave (c). According to the daily chart's trend, the first key target for wave (c) is around 69,000 at Fibonacci 0.618 (will touch), with the final target being 52,000 (not current), and currently 73,200 is the most direct resistance level.
2. Trading Thoughts
Since the current price is hovering near the recent low around 70,140, directly chasing the market price down (shorting) has poor risk-reward. The upcoming trends are mainly these:
1. Inertia Downward (testing 70k) $70,000 - $70,140, the current price is just a step away from the intraday low, and the 1H rebound volume (1.09K) is severely insufficient. Probability 90%.
2. Structural Retracement (Fib 0.618) $69,000 - $69,6757, the market is currently pressured by expectations of the Federal Reserve's incoming chairman Kevin Warsh's tapering, and the 1D level 0.618 has strong attraction. Probability about 75%. This part needs to watch for spikes and increased volume for a potential upward move.
3. Liquidation Level Collapse (testing $65k) $65,000 - $66,900, below $70k there exists a dense long liquidation cluster. Once triggered, the price will enter a liquidity vacuum. Probability about 60%. If it breaks below 69,000, the liquidation pressure will be significant; orders can be placed in this range.
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
ETH Bottom Fishing, Endless Bottoms
1. Trend Analysis:
1. Extreme Panic and Value Reversion
From the daily level (1D), ETH is in a typical accelerated bottoming phase. Since the peak of $4,957$ETH at the end of 2025, the market has erased most of the gains from the past year. The price has fallen to the range of $2,000 - $2,100, which is not only an important psychological barrier but also a key starting area for the last round of the rising market. The recent decline has been accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume (the tall red bars in the chart), indicating that panic selling is exiting in large quantities. Typically, a volume increase during a decline signifies the final release of bearish strength.
2. Micro Details: Breathing After the Waterfall
Observing the 4-hour (4H) trend, the market is showing a “vertical drop” trend.
Short-term Structure: The price shows some signs of stabilization near $2,060, forming a very narrow range of sideways fluctuations. Although a few small bullish candles have appeared, the slope of the rebound is very low, and the body is weak. This indicates that the current stabilization is more due to bears temporarily taking profits rather than a large-scale counterattack from bulls.
2. Trading Ideas
1. Long Position Plan (Betting on Oversold Rebound)
The current RSI or other indicators are certainly in a serious oversold area, and a rebound could happen at any time, but the risk is very high. The probability is about 60%.
Aggressive Entry on the Left: If the price retraces and does not break the integer level of $2,000 - $2,050, a light position can be tried for a long.
Stop Loss: Strictly set below $1,980 (once it breaks, the space below will open directly to $1,385).
Target: The first target is around $2,250 (previous platform resistance).
Conservative Entry on the Right: Wait for the 4H level to stabilize above $2,200, and for a clear bottom formation (like a double bottom or a long lower shadow with volume) before entering.
2. Short Position Plan (Trend Following Short or High Short)
The trend is still dominated by bears, and any rebound with low volume is an opportunity to add shorts.
Pressure Level Ambush: If the rebound is blocked in the range of $2,350 - $2,400 (previous support turned pressure), it is an ideal entry point for short positions.
Target: Looking back at $2,100 or the previous low.
Weak Horizontal Consolidation Followed by Falling Break: If it breaks below the integer level of $2,000$ with volume, it indicates that support has completely failed, and one can short in the direction of the trend to capture the momentum of the decline. (Probability is about 30%)
$ETH
1. Trend Analysis:
1. Extreme Panic and Value Reversion
From the daily level (1D), ETH is in a typical accelerated bottoming phase. Since the peak of $4,957$ETH at the end of 2025, the market has erased most of the gains from the past year. The price has fallen to the range of $2,000 - $2,100, which is not only an important psychological barrier but also a key starting area for the last round of the rising market. The recent decline has been accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume (the tall red bars in the chart), indicating that panic selling is exiting in large quantities. Typically, a volume increase during a decline signifies the final release of bearish strength.
2. Micro Details: Breathing After the Waterfall
Observing the 4-hour (4H) trend, the market is showing a “vertical drop” trend.
Short-term Structure: The price shows some signs of stabilization near $2,060, forming a very narrow range of sideways fluctuations. Although a few small bullish candles have appeared, the slope of the rebound is very low, and the body is weak. This indicates that the current stabilization is more due to bears temporarily taking profits rather than a large-scale counterattack from bulls.
2. Trading Ideas
1. Long Position Plan (Betting on Oversold Rebound)
The current RSI or other indicators are certainly in a serious oversold area, and a rebound could happen at any time, but the risk is very high. The probability is about 60%.
Aggressive Entry on the Left: If the price retraces and does not break the integer level of $2,000 - $2,050, a light position can be tried for a long.
Stop Loss: Strictly set below $1,980 (once it breaks, the space below will open directly to $1,385).
Target: The first target is around $2,250 (previous platform resistance).
Conservative Entry on the Right: Wait for the 4H level to stabilize above $2,200, and for a clear bottom formation (like a double bottom or a long lower shadow with volume) before entering.
2. Short Position Plan (Trend Following Short or High Short)
The trend is still dominated by bears, and any rebound with low volume is an opportunity to add shorts.
Pressure Level Ambush: If the rebound is blocked in the range of $2,350 - $2,400 (previous support turned pressure), it is an ideal entry point for short positions.
Target: Looking back at $2,100 or the previous low.
Weak Horizontal Consolidation Followed by Falling Break: If it breaks below the integer level of $2,000$ with volume, it indicates that support has completely failed, and one can short in the direction of the trend to capture the momentum of the decline. (Probability is about 30%)
$ETH
BTC, Unbearable Orders
From the current 1 hour (1H), 4 hours (4H), and daily (1D) trends, the market is in a very clear main downtrend phase.
1. Trend Status: Bears Take Over, Structural Break
Daily Level (1D): A typical Elliott Wave top reversal pattern. The price has completed five waves of upward movement (peak around $ 126,199), and is currently in a large-scale ABC corrective wave. Current Wave: We are currently in the downward process of wave (c). According to the daily chart's trend, the first key target for wave (c) is around 69,000 at Fibonacci 0.618 (will touch), with the final target being 52,000 (not current), and currently 73,200 is the most direct resistance level.
2. Trading Thoughts
Since the current price is hovering near the recent low around 70,140, directly chasing the market price down (shorting) has poor risk-reward. The upcoming trends are mainly these:
1. Inertia Downward (testing 70k) $70,000 - $70,140, the current price is just a step away from the intraday low, and the 1H rebound volume (1.09K) is severely insufficient. Probability 90%.
2. Structural Retracement (Fib 0.618) $69,000 - $69,6757, the market is currently pressured by expectations of the Federal Reserve's incoming chairman Kevin Warsh's tapering, and the 1D level 0.618 has strong attraction. Probability about 75%. This part needs to watch for spikes and increased volume for a potential upward move.
3. Liquidation Level Collapse (testing $65k) $65,000 - $66,900, below $70k there exists a dense long liquidation cluster. Once triggered, the price will enter a liquidity vacuum. Probability about 60%. If it breaks below 69,000, the liquidation pressure will be significant; orders can be placed in this range.
From the current 1 hour (1H), 4 hours (4H), and daily (1D) trends, the market is in a very clear main downtrend phase.
1. Trend Status: Bears Take Over, Structural Break
Daily Level (1D): A typical Elliott Wave top reversal pattern. The price has completed five waves of upward movement (peak around $ 126,199), and is currently in a large-scale ABC corrective wave. Current Wave: We are currently in the downward process of wave (c). According to the daily chart's trend, the first key target for wave (c) is around 69,000 at Fibonacci 0.618 (will touch), with the final target being 52,000 (not current), and currently 73,200 is the most direct resistance level.
2. Trading Thoughts
Since the current price is hovering near the recent low around 70,140, directly chasing the market price down (shorting) has poor risk-reward. The upcoming trends are mainly these:
1. Inertia Downward (testing 70k) $70,000 - $70,140, the current price is just a step away from the intraday low, and the 1H rebound volume (1.09K) is severely insufficient. Probability 90%.
2. Structural Retracement (Fib 0.618) $69,000 - $69,6757, the market is currently pressured by expectations of the Federal Reserve's incoming chairman Kevin Warsh's tapering, and the 1D level 0.618 has strong attraction. Probability about 75%. This part needs to watch for spikes and increased volume for a potential upward move.
3. Liquidation Level Collapse (testing $65k) $65,000 - $66,900, below $70k there exists a dense long liquidation cluster. Once triggered, the price will enter a liquidity vacuum. Probability about 60%. If it breaks below 69,000, the liquidation pressure will be significant; orders can be placed in this range.
$BTC
The whole market remains calm, do not get overexcited.
To be honest, BTC's trend is a bit weak. From the overall KC channel and the long-term weekly and daily trends, there are three possible scenarios:
1. In the long term:
The first scenario is that it can't break 94,000, leading to a weak rebound, followed by a direct reorganization of the C wave. The probability of this is relatively high.
The second scenario, which has a slightly lower probability, is a direct pullback to 0.618 (around 102,000).
The third scenario, which has the lowest probability, is a direct postponement of the bull market.
The ratio is roughly 5.5:3.5:1.
2. In the short term:
✔ RSI divergence rebound appears
✔ KC lower band quickly rebounds
✔ The angle of moving averages is still downward → the nature of the rebound is a "corrective rebound"
The most likely trends in the next two weeks:
The first scenario continues to rebound to 94,000 (strong resistance) → then falls back for consolidation.
The second scenario is a strong breakout → pushing towards 98,000–112,000.
But it must: increase in volume, RSI stabilizing above 50, 4-hour MA50 must be crossed.
The third scenario is an early end to the rebound → falling back to 86,000–88,000.
The ratio is roughly 6:3:1.
But regardless of the trend, we must follow the market. Technical indicators can only solve 70% of the problems; the remaining 30% cannot be solved by technology.
The whole market remains calm, do not get overexcited.
To be honest, BTC's trend is a bit weak. From the overall KC channel and the long-term weekly and daily trends, there are three possible scenarios:
1. In the long term:
The first scenario is that it can't break 94,000, leading to a weak rebound, followed by a direct reorganization of the C wave. The probability of this is relatively high.
The second scenario, which has a slightly lower probability, is a direct pullback to 0.618 (around 102,000).
The third scenario, which has the lowest probability, is a direct postponement of the bull market.
The ratio is roughly 5.5:3.5:1.
2. In the short term:
✔ RSI divergence rebound appears
✔ KC lower band quickly rebounds
✔ The angle of moving averages is still downward → the nature of the rebound is a "corrective rebound"
The most likely trends in the next two weeks:
The first scenario continues to rebound to 94,000 (strong resistance) → then falls back for consolidation.
The second scenario is a strong breakout → pushing towards 98,000–112,000.
But it must: increase in volume, RSI stabilizing above 50, 4-hour MA50 must be crossed.
The third scenario is an early end to the rebound → falling back to 86,000–88,000.
The ratio is roughly 6:3:1.
But regardless of the trend, we must follow the market. Technical indicators can only solve 70% of the problems; the remaining 30% cannot be solved by technology.
$BTC
Simply put, let's talk about the current BTC trend. From the daily price perspective, the overall eight-wave pattern has basically ended, indicating a short-term need for consolidation. However, from the weekly level, the possibility of a B-wave rebound is greater. Since 126, there has been a deep drop, basically exceeding the Fibonacci 0.618 level. Generally speaking, considering the news, going to around 98000 is quite probable. The rebound is at 0.318, but in terms of timing, it might be a bit rushed. Let's first observe the trend.
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
Simply put, let's talk about the current BTC trend. From the daily price perspective, the overall eight-wave pattern has basically ended, indicating a short-term need for consolidation. However, from the weekly level, the possibility of a B-wave rebound is greater. Since 126, there has been a deep drop, basically exceeding the Fibonacci 0.618 level. Generally speaking, considering the news, going to around 98000 is quite probable. The rebound is at 0.318, but in terms of timing, it might be a bit rushed. Let's first observe the trend.
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
"From Weekly to Daily: The Major Cycle Correction of ETH Has Reached a Key Turning Point"
1. Weekly Structure: ETH is in the A-B-C correction phase after the top of the 5th wave
1. This round of bull market from 2020 to 2025 has fully completed 5 waves of upward movement
The fifth wave ends at around 4800–5000, followed by a noticeable decline, and this adjustment corresponds to the A wave decline in Elliott Wave Theory.
2. The A wave is basically completed, and it is currently in the rebound phase of the B wave
From the Fibonacci ratio perspective, common rebound levels for the B wave are:
0.382: approximately 3513
0.5: approximately 3788
0.618: approximately 4063 (most typical)
Currently, ETH's weekly price is in the range of 3015–3300, belonging to the preliminary rebound phase of the B wave.
1. This round of bull market from 2020 to 2025 has fully completed 5 waves of upward movement
The fifth wave ends at around 4800–5000, followed by a noticeable decline, and this adjustment corresponds to the A wave decline in Elliott Wave Theory.
2. The A wave is basically completed, and it is currently in the rebound phase of the B wave
From the Fibonacci ratio perspective, common rebound levels for the B wave are:
0.382: approximately 3513
0.5: approximately 3788
0.618: approximately 4063 (most typical)
Currently, ETH's weekly price is in the range of 3015–3300, belonging to the preliminary rebound phase of the B wave.
$BTC
Simply put, let's talk about the current BTC trend. From the daily price perspective, the overall eight-wave pattern has basically ended, indicating a short-term need for consolidation. However, from the weekly level, the possibility of a B-wave rebound is greater. Since 126, there has been a deep drop, basically exceeding the Fibonacci 0.618 level. Generally speaking, considering the news, going to around 98000 is quite probable. The rebound is at 0.318, but in terms of timing, it might be a bit rushed. Let's first observe the trend.
Simply put, let's talk about the current BTC trend. From the daily price perspective, the overall eight-wave pattern has basically ended, indicating a short-term need for consolidation. However, from the weekly level, the possibility of a B-wave rebound is greater. Since 126, there has been a deep drop, basically exceeding the Fibonacci 0.618 level. Generally speaking, considering the news, going to around 98000 is quite probable. The rebound is at 0.318, but in terms of timing, it might be a bit rushed. Let's first observe the trend.
$BTC $ETH
It's been a long time since I've analyzed and summarized the market; writing articles and analyses has been inconsistent. Today, I'll briefly discuss it.
This bull market belongs to BTC and is also a bull market for memes, although there is a lack of a general altcoin season. BTC started rising in 2022, reaching its first peak in March 2024 and the second peak in January 2025. The trend is actually similar to March 2021 and December 2021, but the timing of the relative peaks has been delayed by one month. Altcoins are expected to reach their first peak in March 2024 and the second peak in December 2024. BTC rising to 109,000 is already impressive, and altcoins multiplying many times over is also impressive, but it is somewhat different from previous bull markets.
The favorable conditions since Trump took office, MicroStrategy's purchases, BlackRock's continuous accumulation, and interest rate cuts all point to a continuous influx of good news in the second half of 2024. The increasing inflow of funds has led to a rise in trading volume and capital inflow. Now, looking at BTC's trading volume, it's getting smaller and liquidity is decreasing. MicroStrategy's purchases are becoming less frequent. The U.S. stock market continues to print money and rise, and if the crypto market also had continuous money printing, it could also rise continuously, but this scenario is quite unlikely. Institutional holdings may not sell for six months to a year; will they be able to hold that long? Without trading and liquid assets, everything is worthless. Investments definitely need returns, and returns need to be converted into dollars. There are no waves that only rise without falling; they all have ups and downs. The bull market has ended, but the volatility has not.
Returning to the charts, BTC is currently the largest altcoin, with daily fluctuations of several thousand to tens of thousands of points, yet trading volume remains very low. Comparing the trading volume before January to now shows a clear trend: BTC's liquidity is getting worse. Currently, platform coins are rising rapidly, while retail investors are being harvested repeatedly. Funding is not infinite, and the increase in new users is also slowing down. The amount of capital being harvested is decreasing. In this larger trend, one can ignore the news and focus on trend trading, capturing tens of thousands of points of volatility, rather than being overly concerned about fluctuations of a few thousand points. BTC is currently following a rebound trend; it's good to keep an eye on the lower range around 9 or 9.2. Building positions around 88 is not a problem, as most can see the 7 range. Opening 30 trades in a month is not as effective as opening once a month to grasp the trend.
It's been a long time since I've analyzed and summarized the market; writing articles and analyses has been inconsistent. Today, I'll briefly discuss it.
This bull market belongs to BTC and is also a bull market for memes, although there is a lack of a general altcoin season. BTC started rising in 2022, reaching its first peak in March 2024 and the second peak in January 2025. The trend is actually similar to March 2021 and December 2021, but the timing of the relative peaks has been delayed by one month. Altcoins are expected to reach their first peak in March 2024 and the second peak in December 2024. BTC rising to 109,000 is already impressive, and altcoins multiplying many times over is also impressive, but it is somewhat different from previous bull markets.
The favorable conditions since Trump took office, MicroStrategy's purchases, BlackRock's continuous accumulation, and interest rate cuts all point to a continuous influx of good news in the second half of 2024. The increasing inflow of funds has led to a rise in trading volume and capital inflow. Now, looking at BTC's trading volume, it's getting smaller and liquidity is decreasing. MicroStrategy's purchases are becoming less frequent. The U.S. stock market continues to print money and rise, and if the crypto market also had continuous money printing, it could also rise continuously, but this scenario is quite unlikely. Institutional holdings may not sell for six months to a year; will they be able to hold that long? Without trading and liquid assets, everything is worthless. Investments definitely need returns, and returns need to be converted into dollars. There are no waves that only rise without falling; they all have ups and downs. The bull market has ended, but the volatility has not.
Returning to the charts, BTC is currently the largest altcoin, with daily fluctuations of several thousand to tens of thousands of points, yet trading volume remains very low. Comparing the trading volume before January to now shows a clear trend: BTC's liquidity is getting worse. Currently, platform coins are rising rapidly, while retail investors are being harvested repeatedly. Funding is not infinite, and the increase in new users is also slowing down. The amount of capital being harvested is decreasing. In this larger trend, one can ignore the news and focus on trend trading, capturing tens of thousands of points of volatility, rather than being overly concerned about fluctuations of a few thousand points. BTC is currently following a rebound trend; it's good to keep an eye on the lower range around 9 or 9.2. Building positions around 88 is not a problem, as most can see the 7 range. Opening 30 trades in a month is not as effective as opening once a month to grasp the trend.
$BTC
I don't know if the cow exists, I only know that the eight waves have ended. I also only know that we are currently fluctuating between the middle and lower tracks. Sometimes I remember to share, sometimes I don't, but I have been keeping up with my trades. There are too many people following the crowd; I prefer to quietly focus on my own trades and have fewer thoughts.
I don't know if the cow exists, I only know that the eight waves have ended. I also only know that we are currently fluctuating between the middle and lower tracks. Sometimes I remember to share, sometimes I don't, but I have been keeping up with my trades. There are too many people following the crowd; I prefer to quietly focus on my own trades and have fewer thoughts.
The private domain copy trading experiment is basically coming to an end, and there has been a large retracement in the middle. Overall, long-term investment can generate returns, but to obtain large returns basically requires a big market, and the stop loss space in a big market needs to be very large.
$BTC
The daily eight-wave pattern has ended, and the weekly price has a pullback to 73. Currently, the short-term resistance is at the mid-track of 94. If it breaks through, there will be more space; if it doesn't break through, just wash and sleep.
The daily eight-wave pattern has ended, and the weekly price has a pullback to 73. Currently, the short-term resistance is at the mid-track of 94. If it breaks through, there will be more space; if it doesn't break through, just wash and sleep.
$BTC
There's no point in saying much; the 2/3 warehouse starting with 8 has never changed, and the stop-loss has always been set. Even though it has fallen a lot, I haven’t mentioned a bear market. There are too many factors involved in trading, but as long as you don't exit the market, you will profit.
{future}(BTCUSDT)
There's no point in saying much; the 2/3 warehouse starting with 8 has never changed, and the stop-loss has always been set. Even though it has fallen a lot, I haven’t mentioned a bear market. There are too many factors involved in trading, but as long as you don't exit the market, you will profit.
{future}(BTCUSDT)
$BTC
There's no point in saying much; the 2/3 warehouse starting with 8 has never changed, and the stop-loss has always been set. Even though it has fallen a lot, I haven’t mentioned a bear market. There are too many factors involved in trading, but as long as you don't exit the market, you will profit.
There's no point in saying much; the 2/3 warehouse starting with 8 has never changed, and the stop-loss has always been set. Even though it has fallen a lot, I haven’t mentioned a bear market. There are too many factors involved in trading, but as long as you don't exit the market, you will profit.
$BTC
Isn't it true that many people are shouting that the bull has arrived and the bear has left? When you see this, just directly blacklist and block it all. It is unpredictable when major news will cause a sell-off, but an understanding of technical indicators must be clear. A sell-off does not necessarily mean a bear market, and a rally does not necessarily mean a bull market. Manage your positions well, don't take on too much risk, and problems won't be too significant.
{future}(BTCUSDT)
Isn't it true that many people are shouting that the bull has arrived and the bear has left? When you see this, just directly blacklist and block it all. It is unpredictable when major news will cause a sell-off, but an understanding of technical indicators must be clear. A sell-off does not necessarily mean a bear market, and a rally does not necessarily mean a bull market. Manage your positions well, don't take on too much risk, and problems won't be too significant.
{future}(BTCUSDT)
$BTC
Isn't it true that many people are shouting that the bull has arrived and the bear has left? When you see this, just directly blacklist and block it all. It is unpredictable when major news will cause a sell-off, but an understanding of technical indicators must be clear. A sell-off does not necessarily mean a bear market, and a rally does not necessarily mean a bull market. Manage your positions well, don't take on too much risk, and problems won't be too significant.
Isn't it true that many people are shouting that the bull has arrived and the bear has left? When you see this, just directly blacklist and block it all. It is unpredictable when major news will cause a sell-off, but an understanding of technical indicators must be clear. A sell-off does not necessarily mean a bear market, and a rally does not necessarily mean a bull market. Manage your positions well, don't take on too much risk, and problems won't be too significant.
$BTC
If it drops, the cow is gone; if it rises, the cow is still here. If your skills are insufficient, don't force it. The technical indicator shows a C-wave correction, and the expectation is 873. I really didn't expect it to drop directly to the 82 range, but the counterfeit is basically close to the bottom position, which is not a problem. Relatively speaking, I can't say much about the 7 range, but for the 8 range, I have kept 2/3 of my position unchanged. Now it's just about waiting; a new round of increases needs time to wait.
<币安王牌KOL专属群（笔谈）>
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
If it drops, the cow is gone; if it rises, the cow is still here. If your skills are insufficient, don't force it. The technical indicator shows a C-wave correction, and the expectation is 873. I really didn't expect it to drop directly to the 82 range, but the counterfeit is basically close to the bottom position, which is not a problem. Relatively speaking, I can't say much about the 7 range, but for the 8 range, I have kept 2/3 of my position unchanged. Now it's just about waiting; a new round of increases needs time to wait.
<币安王牌KOL专属群（笔谈）>
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
🎙️ 爆仓还是抄底，BTC何去何从？
End
12 m 13 s
88
0
$BTC
If it drops, the cow is gone; if it rises, the cow is still here. If your skills are insufficient, don't force it. The technical indicator shows a C-wave correction, and the expectation is 873. I really didn't expect it to drop directly to the 82 range, but the counterfeit is basically close to the bottom position, which is not a problem. Relatively speaking, I can't say much about the 7 range, but for the 8 range, I have kept 2/3 of my position unchanged. Now it's just about waiting; a new round of increases needs time to wait.
<币安王牌KOL专属群（笔谈）>
If it drops, the cow is gone; if it rises, the cow is still here. If your skills are insufficient, don't force it. The technical indicator shows a C-wave correction, and the expectation is 873. I really didn't expect it to drop directly to the 82 range, but the counterfeit is basically close to the bottom position, which is not a problem. Relatively speaking, I can't say much about the 7 range, but for the 8 range, I have kept 2/3 of my position unchanged. Now it's just about waiting; a new round of increases needs time to wait.
<币安王牌KOL专属群（笔谈）>
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